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In 2025 so far, 40% of VC exit value stems from AI, according to PitchBook

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It’s all happening in AI (and, yes, that’s a Simon and Garfunkel reference). 

And if that’s an exaggeration, it barely feels like one: In Q3, AI amounted to 39.5% of deal count, a record, according to PitchBook. AI is sending U.S. dealmaking trends up, as PitchBook estimates that deal count is up about 8% this year, marking the third most active year of the last decade. And when it comes to deal value, the numbers are even more dominant: By Q3 2025, 64.3% of deal value in the U.S. has tracked to AI. Now, the definition of “AI” is pretty broad, but a now undeniable reality has taken hold. 

“I think AI has basically become the foundation of VC,” said Kyle Stanford, PitchBook director of U.S. venture research, via email. “It provides a wholly new way for companies to solve challenges, and it is being integrated into every part of the economy. It is still the easy and fast deployment that can drive hyper scaling that VC has looked to for outsized returns. As mentioned above, it’s not a singular technology or subset of companies within a broader industry; it is becoming part of everything.”

This follows through to the much-discussed and long-suffering VC exit environment: In 2025 so far, 40% of the exit deal value also traces back to AI, among them CoreWeave’s IPO. PitchBook says 2025 has seen a record 317 AI exits. But the environment for IPOs and M&A remains dicey, according to PitchBook’s Stanford.

“Exit value is interesting because you have a few strong IPOs, and then quite a few IPOs that maybe got higher billing for the year because of the overall lack of exits,” he told Fortune. “I don’t think many share my view on the IPO market, but I question its real strength given the relatively small pipeline…Many of the IPOs have been crypto firms or companies that might be considered atypical for the overall VC-backed inventory. I do think that the extended period staying private (over the past three years) will lead to some very strong companies listing next year.”

Whether such an over-reliance on AI is healthy for the VC industry is an open question. And of course, intertwined in that question is the ongoing debate du jour: Are we in a bubble? If we are, what does that even mean?

Stanford says he believes the conversation around a bubble should be nuanced. “This hype cycle, or bubble, might drive more tail events,” he said. “The multiples being given to some companies are very high, which might be concerning, but if this is truly the technological shift it is being billed as, then companies shouldn’t be priced in a normal way.”

A thought to this end from Brent Hill, managing partner at Origin Ventures, which just raised a $140 million sixth fund: “The U.S. economy has gone through five major economic eras: agrarian, industrial, information, digital—and now, of course, we’re living in the fifth and maybe most consequential with the artificial intelligence economy.” This ongoing phase will be massive, Hill reckons, noting that “we think that over the next ten years, we’ll see a dramatic impact in the productivity of the U.S. economy that will add somewhere between $2 trillion and $4 trillion to domestic GDP.”

There remains, of course, the question of how unprecedented VC’s all-in reliance on AI really is. We see lots of corollaries to the dotcom bubble, perhaps—but venture was a far smaller, less mature industry then. Karen Page, general partner at B Capital, thinks it’s worth considering the cloud boom.

“Cloud was a fundamental shift—a different way to own your data, to run your data,” she said. “But even so, AI is a different way to access your data. So, this is still leaps and bounds more of a transition.”

There was always, during cloud hype, a sense that brakes were getting pumped. Not so in AI: “There is no fear around AI,” Page said. “There is, instead of fear, a desire to jump in and move fast. So, it’s very different.” 

All in all, she and I ultimately settled on the word “unprecedented.”

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Venture Deals

Base Power, an Austin, Texas-based energy provider, raised $1 billion in Series C funding. Addition led the round and was joined by Trust Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, Thrive Capital, and others.

Phagos, a Suresnes, France-based developer of a sustainable alternative to antibiotics, raised $30 million in Series A funding from CapAgro, Hoxton Ventures, CapHorn, Demeter, and others.

Coinflow, a Chicago, Ill.-based global payments platform, raised $25 million in Series A funding. Pantera Capital led the round and was joined by CMT Digital, Coinbase Ventures, and others.

Quilter, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based company using AI to build an autonomous PCB layout, raised $25 million in Series B funding. Index Ventures led the round.

Glue, a San Francisco-based agentic team chat platform, raised $20 million in Series A funding. Abstract Ventures led the round and was joined by Chapter One, Goldcrest Capital, and Craft Ventures.

Realm.Security, a Boston, Mass.-based security data pipeline, raised $15 million in Series A funding. Jump Capital led the round and was joined by Glasswing Ventures and Accomplice.

Attuned Intelligence, an Orlando, Fla.-based developer of AI-powered call center agents for hospitals, raised $13 million in seed funding. Radical Ventures and Threshold Ventures led the round.

AiPrise, a San Francisco-based operating system for global compliance, raised $12.5 million in Series A funding. Headline led the round and was joined by Sixthirty and Correlation

Everyset, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based background performer platform for film and television, raised $9 million in funding. Crosslink Capital and Haven Ventures led the round.

Cyberwave, a Milan, Italy-based company developing an operating layer between AI agents and real-world machines, raised €7 million ($8.1 million) in funding. United Ventures led the round and was joined by The TechShop and others.

Asterix Food, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based developer of technology using plant cells to produce animal proteins. CPT Capital led the round and was joined by Grok Ventures, ReGen Ventures, and SOSV.

Dragonfly, a London, U.K.-based software discovery platform, raised $3.5 million in pre-seed funding. Episode 1 led the round and was joined by Dreamcraft, Portfolio Ventures, and angel investors.

OraLiva, a New York City-based developer of AI-assisted oral cancer detection technology, raised $2 million in seed funding. Dr. Preetpal Sidhu led the round and was joined by DCVC, RTP Angel Fund, and the NYU Innovation Venture Fund.

Private Equity

Mainsail Partners invested $36 million in Flyntlok, an Anchorage, Alaska-based heavy equipment dealer management system. 

Brenton Point Capital Partners acquired a majority stake in Bobcat of Connecticut, an East Hartford, Conn.-based chain of Bobcat and other industrial equipment dealerships. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Integrity Landscape Corporation, a portfolio company of Seacoast Capital, acquired Serpico Landscaping, a Hayward, Calif.-based exterior landscaping company. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

Mountaingate Capital acquired a majority stake in Walker Sands, a Chicago, Ill.-based business-to-business growth services agency. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Wall Street Prep, a portfolio company of The Riverside Company, acquired Financial Edge, a London, U.K.-based provider of new hire training for financial institutions, and Euromoney Learning, a London, U.K.-based catalog of courses for mid-career finance professionals. Financial terms were not disclosed.

People

Plural, a London, U.K.-based venture capital firm, hired Pierre-Dimitri Gore-Coty as partner. He formerly served as SVP of Delivery at Uber.

Rockbridge Growth Equity, a Detroit, Mich.-based private equity firm, hired Tony Pulice as partner. He was previously with Huron Capital Partners.



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Procurement execs often don’t understand the value of good design, experts say

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Behind every intricately designed hotel or restaurant is a symbiotic collaboration between designer and maker.

But in reality, firms want to build more with less—and even though visions are created by designers, they don’t always get to see them to fruition. Instead, intermediaries may be placed in charge of procurements and overseeing the financial costs of executing designs.

“The process is not often as linear as we [designers] would like it to be, and at times we even get slightly cut out, and something comes out on the other side that wasn’t really what we were expecting,” said Tina Norden, a partner and principal at design firm Conran and Partners, at the Fortune Brainstorm Design forum in Macau on Dec. 2.

“To have a better quality product, communication is very much needed,” added Daisuke Hironaka, the CEO of Stellar Works, a furniture company based in Shanghai. 

Yet those tasked with procurement are often “money people” who may not value good design—instead forsaking it to cut costs. More education on the business value of quality design is needed, Norden argued.

When one builds something, she said, there are both capital investment and a lifecycle cost. “If you’re spending a bit more money on good quality furniture, flooring, whatever it might be, arguably, it should last a lot longer, and so it’s much better value.”

Investing in well-designed products is also better for the environment, Norden added, as they don’t have to be replaced as quickly.

Attempts to cut costs may also backfire in the long run, said Hironaka, as business owners may have to foot higher maintenance bills if products are of poor design and make.

AI in interior and furniture design

Though designers have largely been slow adopters of AI, some luminaries like Daisuke are attempting to integrate it into their team’s workflow.

AI can help accelerate the process of designing bespoke furniture, Daisuke explained, especially for large-scale projects like hotels. 

A team may take a month to 45 days to create drawings for 200 pieces of custom-made furniture, the designer said, but AI can speed up this process. “We designed a lot in the past, and if AI can use these archives, study [them] and help to do the engineering, that makes it more helpful for designers.” 

Yet designers can rest easy as AI won’t ever be able to replace the human touch they bring, Norden said. 

“There is something about the human touch, and about understanding how we like to use our spaces, how we enjoy space, how we perceive spaces, that will always be there—but AI should be something that can assist us [in] getting to that point quicker.”

She added that creatives can instead view AI as a tool for tasks that are time-consuming but “don’t need ultimate creativity,” like researching and three-dimensionalizing designs.

“As designers, we like to procrastinate and think about things for a very long time to get them just right, [but] we can get some help in doing things faster.”



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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