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Exclusive: Supabase raises $100 million at $5 billion valuation as vibe coding soars

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The vibe coding movement, as Paul Copplestone figures it, started last December—and we’re already a few eras in. 

“So, wave one of vibe coding was like, ‘You’ll never need more software,’” said Copplestone, CEO and cofounder of Supabase, an open source application development platform. “Wave two is, ‘Oh, you’ll never need to write code again.’… And then wave three, which we’re in now, is where these ideas converge—there’s a nice happy path for anyone who’s on their mobile, looking to build an app. They start on mobile, kick it across to their laptop, and then it scales out.”

Copplestone is in a unique position to monitor the vibe coding movement. His company, which provides backend infrastructure for AI and no-code platforms like Bolt and Lovable, grew its user base from one million to north of four million developers over the last year. “AI builders,” as Copplestone terms them, tend to represent about 30% of their signups. Supabase is built on Postgres, the popular developer database system that competes with Google’s Firebase and is a bet on an open-source future. 

In April, Term Sheet broke the news that Supabase had raised $200 million in an Accel-led Series D, valuing the company at $2 billion. Now, about five months later, Supabase has raised a $100 million Series E at a $5 billion valuation. Accel and Peak XV led the round, with Figma Ventures joining the round along with other existing investors. (Supabase declined to disclose current revenue figures.) Supabase—which has now raised $500 million since its 2020 founding—also included an opportunity for the startup’s developer community to co-invest in the round as part of a “build-together, owned-together mentality,” Copplestone said. 

There’s only one new institutional investor in this round—Figma. Copplestone’s an admirer of Figma CEO Dylan Field and the company’s rollicking, very online user community (and Supabase helps underpin AI design tool Figma Make). Otherwise, Supabase restricted the company’s Series E to insiders, despite interest from outside investors. 

“The future of Supabase, I hope, is the $50 billion, $100 billion outcome,” Copplestone told Fortune. “Is that extra investor going to get you there when you wouldn’t have otherwise? Are they going to add $5 billion to the top? The math isn’t quite certain, especially when we’ve already got investors that I feel will be able to get us there, at least for now.”

Copplestone’s an optimist about one of the most existential questions around vibe coding: As it gets easier for anyone to code, what will happen to coding and developer jobs?

“Developers today are coding a lot, and I think they’ll probably code a lot less in the future,”  said Copplestone, who believes we’re still very far off from a day when no one will need to code at all. “But people will still be interested in code, and there will be no shortage of people who want to build things. As things get easier, more people will actually want to build things. So, for us, it’s a great tailwind.”

ICYMI… Paul was on the Term Sheet Podcast last week, talking about how he builds culture in a global, remote startup. We also talk about New Zealand, why he hires other founders, and more about the vibe coding labor shift. Listen and watch here. 

See you Monday,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.

Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

Venture Deals

DualEntry, a New York City-based AI-native ERP, raised $90 million in Series A funding. Lightspeed Venture Partners and Khosla Ventures led the round and were joined by GV, Contrary, and Vesey Ventures.

Ansa Biotechnologies, an Emeryville, Calif.-based DNA synthesis company, raised $54.4 million in Series B funding. Cerberus Ventures led the round and was joined by Blue Water Life Science Advisors, Altitude Life Science Ventures, and others.

Dash0, a New York City-based AI-powered observability platform, raised $35 million in Series A funding. Accel and Cherry Ventures led the round and were joined by existing investor DIG Ventures.

Oneleet, a Wilmington, Del.-based cybersecurity and compliance platform, raised $33 million in Series A funding. Dawn Capital led the round and was joined by Y-Combinator and others.

Cypher Games, an Istanbul, Turkey-based mobile games company, raised $30 million in funding. The Raine Group and Play Ventures led the round and were joined by others.

Folia Health, a Boston, Mass.-based chronic disease tracking company, raised $10.5 million in Series A funding. S3 Ventures led the round and was joined by Crosslink Capital and Create Health Ventures.

Aventra, a Herndon, VA, based developer of low-cost glide and guidance systems for ultra long-range precision strikes, raised $3 million in seed funding. Lavrock Ventures led the round.

Podonos, a Los Gatos, Calif.-based builder of automated services to improve voice AI model performance, raised $2.4 million in pre-seed funding. Serac Ventures led the round and was joined by NAVER D2SF and Kaist Venture Investment.

Argu.ai, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based AI-powered surveillance platform, raised $2 million in seed funding from Miami-Dade Innovation Authority, 1948 Ventures, a16z Speedrun, Mekorot, and angel investors.

Private Equity

Percheron Capital completed a $1.63 billion recapitalization of Big Brand Tire & Service, a Moorpark, Calif.-based chain of tire and car service stores. Blue Owl Capital, ICONIQ, and Warburg Pincus co-led the recapitalization.

Copilot Capital acquired a majority stake in Zendr, a Solna, Sweden-based business-to-business logistics platform. Financial terms were not disclosed.

LawnPRO Partners, backed by HCI Equity, acquired Sea of Green Lawn Care, an East Kingston, N.H.-based lawn care services company. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Thoma Bravo acquired a minority stake in SDC Capital Partners, a New York City-based infrastructure investment firm. Financial terms were not disclosed.



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Elon Musk’s X fined $140 million by EU for breaching digital regulations

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European Union regulators on Friday fined X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, 120 million euros ($140 million) for breaches of the bloc’s digital regulations, in a move that risks rekindling tensions with Washington over free speech.

The European Commission issued its decision following an investigation it opened two years ago into X under the 27-nation bloc’s Digital Services Act, also known as the DSA.

It’s the first time that the EU has issued a so-called non-compliance decision since rolling out the DSA. The sweeping rulebook requires platforms to take more responsibility for protecting European users and cleaning up harmful or illegal content and products on their sites, under threat of hefty fines.

The Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said it was punishing X because of three different breaches of the DSA’s transparency requirements. The decision could rile President Donald Trump, whose administration has lashed out at digital regulations, complained that Brussels was targeting U.S. tech companies and vowed to retaliate.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on his X account that the Commission’s fine was akin to an attack on the American people. Musk later agreed with Rubio’s sentiment.

“The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments,” Rubio wrote. “The days of censoring Americans online are over.”

Vice President JD Vance, posting on X ahead of the decision, accused the Commission of seeking to fine X “for not engaging in censorship.”

“The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage,” he wrote.

Officials denied the rules were intended to muzzle Big Tech companies. The Commission is “not targeting anyone, not targeting any company, not targeting any jurisdictions based on their color or their country of origin,” spokesman Thomas Regnier told a regular briefing in Brussels. “Absolutely not. This is based on a process, democratic process.”

X did not respond immediately to an email request for comment.

EU regulators had already outlined their accusations in mid-2024 when they released preliminary findings of their investigation into X.

Regulators said X’s blue checkmarks broke the rules because on “deceptive design practices” and could expose users to scams and manipulation.

Before Musk acquired X, when it was previously known as Twitter, the checkmarks mirrored verification badges common on social media and were largely reserved for celebrities, politicians and other influential accounts, such as Beyonce, Pope Francis, writer Neil Gaiman and rapper Lil Nas X.

After he bought it in 2022, the site started issuing the badges to anyone who wanted to pay $8 per month.

That means X does not meaningfully verify who’s behind the account, “making it difficult for users to judge the authenticity of accounts and content they engage with,” the Commission said in its announcement.

X also fell short of the transparency requirements for its ad database, regulators said.

Platforms in the EU are required to provide a database of all the digital advertisements they have carried, with details such as who paid for them and the intended audience, to help researches detect scams, fake ads and coordinated influence campaigns. But X’s database, the Commission said, is undermined by design features and access barriers such as “excessive delays in processing.”

Regulators also said X also puts up “unnecessary barriers” for researchers trying to access public data, which stymies research into systemic risks that European users face.

“Deceiving users with blue checkmarks, obscuring information on ads and shutting out researchers have no place online in the EU. The DSA protects users,” Henna Virkkunen, the EU’s executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, said in a prepared statement.

The Commission also wrapped up a separate DSA case Friday involving TikTok’s ad database after the video-sharing platform promised to make changes to ensure full transparency.

___

AP Writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.



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Nvidia CEO says U.S. data centers take 3 years, but China ‘can build a hospital in a weekend’

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said China has an AI infrastructure advantage over the U.S., namely in construction and energy.

While the U.S. retains an edge on AI chips, he warned China can build large projects at staggering speeds.

“If you want to build a data center here in the United States from breaking ground to standing up a AI supercomputer is probably about three years,” Huang told Center for Strategic and International Studies President John Hamre in late November. “They can build a hospital in a weekend.”

The speed at which China can build infrastructure is just one of his concerns. He also worries about the countries’ comparative energy capacity to support the AI boom.

China has “twice as much energy as we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. Makes no sense to me,” Huang said.

He added that China’s energy capacity continues to grow “straight up”, while the U.S.’s remains relatively flat.

Still, Huang maintained that Nvidia is “generations ahead” of China on AI chip technology to support the demand for the tech and semiconductor manufacturing process.

But he warned against complacency on this front, adding that “anybody who thinks China can’t manufacture is missing a big idea.”

Yet Huang is hopeful about Nvidia’s future, noting President Donald Trump’s push to reshore manufacturing jobs and spur AI investments.

‘Insatiable AI demand’

Early last month, Huang made headlines by predicting China would win the AI race—a message he amended soon thereafter, saying the country was “nanoseconds behind America” in the race in a statement shared to his company’s X account.

Nvidia is just one of the big tech companies pouring billions of dollars into a data center buildout in the U.S., which experts tell Fortune could amount to over $100 billion in the next year alone.

Raul Martynek, the CEO of DataBank, a company that contracts with tech giants to construct data centers, said the average cost of a data center is $10 million to $15 million per megawatt (MW), and a typical data centers on the smaller side requires 40 MW.

“In the U.S., we think there will be 5 to 7 gigawatts brought online in the coming year to support this seemingly insatiable AI demand,” Martynek said.

This shakes out to $50 billion on the low end, and $105 billion on the high end.



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Trump finally meets Claudia Sheinbaum face to face at the FIFA World Cup draw

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Their long-delayed first face-to-face discussion focused on next year’s World Cup — and included side discussions about trade and tariffs — but immigration was not the top issue. That’s despite Trump’s push to crack down on the U.S.-Mexico border being a centerpiece of his administration, and the driving force in the relations between both countries.

Trump has been in office for more than 10 months, and his having taken so long to see Sheinbaum in-person is striking given that meeting with the leader of the country’s southern neighbor is often a top priority for U.S. presidents.

Trump and Sheinbaum had been set to meet in June on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Canada, but that was scrapped after Trump rushed back to Washington early amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Soccer took center stage — but tariffs still loom large

Trump and Sheinbaum sat talking in the president’s box and also appeared onstage with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the Kennedy Center for Friday’s 2026 World Cup draw. The U.S., Mexico and Canada are co-hosting the tournament, which begins in June.

A senior White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private meetings, said Trump, Sheinbaum and Carney met privately after participating in the draw.

Sheinbaum had said before leaving Mexico that she’d talk to Trump about tariffs that his administration has imposed on automobiles, steel and aluminum from Mexico, among other things. She said after appearing at the Kennedy Center that the three leaders “talked about the great opportunity that the 2026 FIFA World Cup represents for the three countries and about the good relationship we have.”

“We agreed to continue working together on trade issues with our teams,” Sheinbaum posted on X.

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner. The the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement which Trump forged in his first term as a replacement for 1994’s North American Free Trade Agreement also remains in place. But U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has begun scrutinizing it ahead of a joint review process set for July.

In the meantime, the U.S. and Mexico’s priorities have been reshaped by the steep drop in the number of people crossing into the U.S. illegally along its southern border, as well as the White House’s — so far largely unrealized — threats to impose large trade tariffs on its neighbor.

Before speaking in-person, Trump and Sheinbaum had repeatedly talked by phone, discussing tariffs and Mexican efforts to help combat the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S. But despite other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, having already met with Trump this term, the meeting with Sheinbaum hadn’t happened until Friday.

The Trump whisperer?

Waiting so long to meet in person hasn’t seemed to hurt Mexico’s president’s standing with Trump.

The two spoke by phone in November 2024, with the then-U.S. president-elect declaring afterward that they’d agreed “to stop Migration through Mexico” — even as Sheinbaum suggested her country had already been doing enough.

Trump soon after taking office threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico in an effort to force that country to better combat fentanyl smuggling, only to later agree to a pause.

The White House subsequently backed off tariff threats against most Mexican goods. Then, in October, Sheinbaum announced that the U.S. had given her country another extension to avoid sweeping 25% tariffs on goods it imports to the U.S. — even as many items covered by the USMCA trade deal remain exempt.

Mexico, though, hasn’t avoided all U.S. tariffs. Sheinbaum’s country continues to try to negotiate its way out of import levies Trump has imposed worth 25% on the automotive sector and 50% on steel and aluminum.

Sheinbaum’s success at mitigating many tariffs, and other successes in the bilateral relationship, has led some to wonder if she has a special gift for getting what she wants from him.

She’s largely pulled it off by affording Trump the respect the U.S. president demands from leaders around the world — but especially a neighboring country — and by deploying occasional humor and pushing back, always respectfully, when necessary.

Sheinbaum also defused another potential point of contention, Trump’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America,” by proposing dryly that North America should be renamed “América Mexicana,” or “Mexican America.” That’s because a founding document dating from 1814 that preceded Mexico’s constitution referred to it that way.

Still, Mexican officials continue to work furiously to lessen the trade blow from tariffs going into 2026 — levies that could wreck its already low-growth economy, particularly in its all-important automotive sector. Sheinbaum’s government has also sought to defend its citizens living in the U.S. as the Trump administration expands its mass deportation operations.

Sheinbaum’s government also lobbied unsuccessfully against a 1% U.S. tax on remittances, or money transfers that millions of Mexicans send home every year from the United States. It was approved as part of Trump’s tax cut and spending package and takes effect Jan. 1.

Trump’s push for mass deportations

Trump has directed federal officials to prioritize major deportation pushes in Democratic-run cities — an extraordinary move that lays bare the politics of the issues. He’s also deployed the National Guard in an effort to curb crime, which has led to a spike in immigration-related arrests, in places like Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington, as well as Memphis, Tennessee, and Portland, Oregon.

The Trump administration says its priority is targeting “the worst of the worst” criminals, but most of the people detained in operations around the country have not had violent criminal histories.

Such operations often meant targeting Mexican citizens who have lived and worked in the United States for years and may face deportation to a homeland they no longer know well. It also has meant serious threats of declining remittance income, which has fallen for seven consecutive months.

The lower number of illegal U.S.-Mexico border crossings has knocked immigration off its perch as the top agenda item for the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations for the first time in recent memory.

Mexican officials now say conversations around immigration have shifted toward cajoling countries into taking back their citizens and reintegrating them to keep them from leaving again — a major Trump administration priority around the world.

Cooperation on security

Sheinbaum has blunted some of the Trump administration’s tough talk on fentanyl and drug smuggling cartels by giving her security chief Omar García Harfuch more authority.

Mexico has also extradited dozens of drug cartel figures to the U.S., including Rafael Caro Quintero, long sought in the 1985 killing of a DEA agent. That show of goodwill, and a much more visible effort against the cartels’ fentanyl production, has gotten the Trump administration’s attention.

That’s a significant improvement. Only a few years ago, the DEA struggled to get visas for its people in Mexico, and then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador accused the U.S. government of fabricating evidence against a former Mexican defense secretary, though he never presented evidence to back up the allegation.

Not everything has gone so smoothly, though. Trump criticized Sheinbaum for rejecting his proposal to send U.S. troops to Mexico to help thwart the illegal drug trade.

Last month, Sheinbaum said there was no way the U.S. military would be able to make strikes in Mexico, after Trump said he was open to the idea. And she has denounced U.S. strikes on boats allegedly carrying drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.

“The president of Mexico is a lovely woman, but she is so afraid of the cartels that she can’t even think straight,” Trump said earlier this year.

Sheinbaum declined to take the bait — and avoided turning up the political pressure — by sidestepping Trump’s criticism.

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Associated Press writer Chris Sherman contributed from Mexico City.



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