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Last Call for 9.29.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The James Madison Institute’s latest poll of Florida voters drew some quick fire from pollster Tony Fabrizio, who argues its methodology undercuts the headline numbers in the GOP Governor’s Primary.

It boils down to sample composition: JMI asked Republican voters (self-identified, no less) which candidate they would prefer in the GOP Primary; Fabrizio counters that the only Republicans who matter when it comes to primary elections are Republicans who plan to vote in primaries.

It’s a valid critique. Ten Election Day flakes are worth less than one reliable voter.

Still, one result in the JMI poll deserves a second look: nearly one in three respondents said they feel “politically homeless.” That isn’t a metric with firm predictive value. Still, it is a striking reminder that, despite the noise about polarization, the number of voters alienated by both parties is growing.

Florida Republicans have an inarguable advantage in organization, turnout, fundraising and everything else needed to set candidates up for success. Still, Republicans’ growing voter registrations have as much to do with a surge in third-party and no-party registrations following the 2020 Election.

JMI says it “signals a ripe opportunity for candidates to engage disaffected moderates and independents.” But just like the Primary, whether that “ripe opportunity” is real or just another mirage depends on who shows up.

It cuts both ways, too. For Republicans, it means fresh recruiting ground; for Democrats, who sit 10 points back in overall voter registrations, it’s really the only math that still gives them a fighting chance.

Evening Reads

—“Here are the Floridians who paid megabucks to dine with President Donald Trump” via Dan Christensen of the Florida Bulldog

—”Miami suburb’s once-vibrant housing scene is hit by exodus of migrants” via Deborah Acosta of The Wall Street Journal

—”The man behind Trump’s push for an all-powerful presidency” via Coral Davenport of The New York Times

—”Inside the fight against Trump’s Alaskan pipe dream” via Antonia Juhasz of Rolling Stone

—”Rahm Emanuel, weighing presidential bid, navigates a Democratic Party moving left” via John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal

—”Florida leaders celebrate higher ed rankings success while touting low tuition, anti-DEI policies” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Ron DeSantis thinks Charlie Kirk has greater reach since his death” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”Poll: Two in three Floridians today would vote to reduce or eliminate property taxes” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—“Central Florida mostly ignored DeSantis push to lower property taxes” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel

—”The curious conservative war on beer” via Alexander Sammon of Slate

Quote of the Day

“Are we going to do like an O.J. Simpson trial just to (prove) somebody’s here illegally?”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, claiming he convinced the Trump administration to speed up deportations.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Instead of a drink, give Gov. Ron DeSantis a cocktail scoresheet for bringing up university DOGE report cards during an event celebrating seven state universities earning Top 100 rankings.

We’re still waiting for mixologists to concoct the Polished, Shiny Badge; until then, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds will have to make do with a Rusty Sheriff’s Badge in honor of his bulk endorsement from 15 county sheriffs.

Former (and potentially future) Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn earned an Iconika (Florida citrus-powered, of course) for landing a top award from Tampa Bay Business & Wealth.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Winless Dolphins host winless Jets on Monday Night Football

The Miami Dolphins seek the first win of the season when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Both Miami and the Jets have started the season 0-3. They are, along with the Tennessee Titans, the only winless teams in the AFC. The New Orleans Saints are the only other team without a victory this season in the NFL.

Miami is dealing with a rash of injuries at cornerback. Starter Storm Duck and reserves Jason Marshall and Cam Smith have been ruled out of the game, while third-stringer Ethan Bonner is questionable. Rasul Douglas is expected to start at one cornerback spot with regular starter Jack Jones on the opposite side.

The good news is that the Jets’ passing game has been among the worst in the NFL this season, averaging 145 yards per game. Neither team has moved the ball effectively this season. Miami averages 282 yards of total offense per game, while the Jets average 272 yards.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled this season, throwing five touchdown passes and four interceptions. Tagovailoa has completed only five passes that have gone for more than 20 yards this season.

Miami’s defense has also struggled, surrendering more than 30 points in each of the first three games.

If the Dolphins are going to salvage the season, they must beat the Jets tonight. Next week, they travel to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Miles Davis tapped to lead School Board organizing workshop at national LGBTQ conference

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Miles Davis is taking his Florida-focused organizing playbook to the national stage.

Davis, Policy Director at PRISM Florida and Director of Advocacy and Communications at SAVE, has been selected to present a workshop at the 2026 Creating Change Conference, the largest annual LGBTQ advocacy and movement-building convention.

It’s a major nod to his rising role in Florida’s LGBTQ policy landscape.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, which organizes the conference, announced that Davis will present his session, “School Board Organizing 101.” His proposal rose to the top of more than 550 submissions competing for roughly 140 slots, a press note said, making this year’s conference one of the most competitive program cycles in the event’s history.

His workshop will be scheduled during the Jan. 21-24 gathering in Washington, D.C.

Davis said his selection caps a strong year for PRISM Florida, where he helped shepherd the organization’s first-ever bill (HB 331) into the Legislature. The measure, sponsored by Tampa Democratic Rep. Dianne Hart, would restore local oversight over reproductive health and HIV/AIDS instruction, undoing changes enacted under a 2023 expansion to Florida’s “Parental Rights in Education” law, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics.

Davis’ workshop draws directly from that work and aims to train LGBTQ youth, families and advocates in how local boards operate, how public comment can shape decisions and how communities can mobilize around issues like book access, inclusive classrooms and student safety.

“School boards are where the real battles over student safety, book access, and inclusive classrooms are happening,” Davis said. “I’m honored to bring this training to Creating Change and help our community build the skills to show up, speak out, and win — especially as PRISM advances legislation like HB 331 that returns power to our local communities.”

Davis’ profile has grown in recent years, during which he jumped from working on the campaigns and legislative teams of lawmakers like Hart and Miami Gardens Democratic Sen. Shevrin Jones to working in key roles for organizations like America Votes, PRISM and SAVE.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, founded in 1973, is one of the nation’s oldest LGBTQ advocacy organizations. It focuses on advancing civil rights through federal policy work, grassroots engagement and leadership development.

Its Creating Change Conference draws thousands for four days of training and strategy-building yearly, a press note said.



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Kevin Steele seeks insight from conservative leaders at Rick Scott-led summit

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State Rep. Kevin Steele’s campaign for Chief Financial Officer already enjoys political support from U.S. Sen. Rick Scott. The Dade City Republican attended a summit headlined by the Senator to also gain some policy insight and mentoring.

Steele was among the attendees for the Rescuing the American Dream summit held on Thursday in Washington, D.C. He said it was a quest for knowledge that drew him to Capitol Hill to hear the discussion.

“The way you do things better in the future is by learning from people who have already accomplished something,” Steele told Florida Politics at the event.

Scott gave a shoutout to Steele from the stage. The Governor already endorsed Steele, who is challenging the appointed Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia in 2026. At the summit, Scott both promoted conservative successes in the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term and laid out visions on issues from health care reform to cryptocurrency.

Steele called the panel discussions “amazing” and instructive on tackling affordability issues in Florida.

“If we don’t start addressing those things head first, we’re going to fall behind,” Steele said. “I think we’ve lost several million jobs in the state of Florida over the past six or seven years. Learning from Rick Scott and how to bring jobs back to the state is a good thing. And I think that we need to start tackling some of the big, big things that we need to attack.”

That includes addressing property insurance premiums head on and evaluating the property tax situation.

While he will be challenging a Republican incumbent in a Primary, Steele voiced caution at comparing his philosophy too directly with Ingoglia, a former Republican Party of Florida Chair with a history of animus with Scott.

But he did suggest Ingoglia’s recent scrutinizing of local governments may be starting at the wrong place when it comes to cutting spending.

“We need to start focusing on state down, instead of going to a county and pointing out flaws there,” Steele said. “There’s a lot of issues at the state level that we can address, some of which we are, some of which I’ve submitted different bills to address. I think that there’s a lot of waste and abuse at the state level that we can focus on.”



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Darren Soto refuses to call for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation

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U.S. Rep. Darren Soto is refusing to say whether indicted U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick should vacate her seat in Congress.

Video obtained by Florida Politics shows Soto being confronted on Capitol Hill. “Will you call on Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick to resign?” the videographer asks.

Initially, Soto remains silent, but the questioner suggests that silence shows “support” for someone who “stole $5 million in health care funds for the most vulnerable.” The Kissimmee Democrat then responds but continues walking away from the camera. He then conflates a censure motion against U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, a New Smyrna Beach Republican, and Cherfilus-McCormick, a Miramar Democrat.

“Both Mills and Cherfilus-McCormick, both will have due process. Thank you,” Soto said.

Both Cherfilus-McCormick and Mills remain the subjects of ongoing House Ethics Committee investigations. But only Cherfilus-McCormick now faces criminal prosecution for alleged financial crimes.

A grand jury in November indicted Cherfilus-McCormick on charges she stole $5 million in disaster relief funds to finance her 2021 congressional campaign.

The indictment alleges that Cherfilus-McCormick and her brother, Edwin Cherfilus, secured funding intended for a COVID vaccine distribution program, but when overpayments were made, she routed the spending through several accounts that later donated the funds as campaign contributions.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said pursuant to House rules that Cherfilus-McCormick had to give up her ranking status on the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. Local Democrats have started to issue calls for the Miramar Democrat’s resignation. But there have been no calls from Democratic members of Congress.

U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Sarasota Republican, has said if she won’t resign, he will move for her expulsion.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which lists Soto as a target in 2026, slammed Soto’s unwillingness to criticize a fellow Democrat.

“Darren Soto’s refusal to call on Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick to resign is unacceptable,” said NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole. “Floridians deserve a representative who fights for them, not his taxpayer-thieving colleague.”



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