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Last Call for 9.29.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The James Madison Institute’s latest poll of Florida voters drew some quick fire from pollster Tony Fabrizio, who argues its methodology undercuts the headline numbers in the GOP Governor’s Primary.

It boils down to sample composition: JMI asked Republican voters (self-identified, no less) which candidate they would prefer in the GOP Primary; Fabrizio counters that the only Republicans who matter when it comes to primary elections are Republicans who plan to vote in primaries.

It’s a valid critique. Ten Election Day flakes are worth less than one reliable voter.

Still, one result in the JMI poll deserves a second look: nearly one in three respondents said they feel “politically homeless.” That isn’t a metric with firm predictive value. Still, it is a striking reminder that, despite the noise about polarization, the number of voters alienated by both parties is growing.

Florida Republicans have an inarguable advantage in organization, turnout, fundraising and everything else needed to set candidates up for success. Still, Republicans’ growing voter registrations have as much to do with a surge in third-party and no-party registrations following the 2020 Election.

JMI says it “signals a ripe opportunity for candidates to engage disaffected moderates and independents.” But just like the Primary, whether that “ripe opportunity” is real or just another mirage depends on who shows up.

It cuts both ways, too. For Republicans, it means fresh recruiting ground; for Democrats, who sit 10 points back in overall voter registrations, it’s really the only math that still gives them a fighting chance.

Evening Reads

—“Here are the Floridians who paid megabucks to dine with President Donald Trump” via Dan Christensen of the Florida Bulldog

—”Miami suburb’s once-vibrant housing scene is hit by exodus of migrants” via Deborah Acosta of The Wall Street Journal

—”The man behind Trump’s push for an all-powerful presidency” via Coral Davenport of The New York Times

—”Inside the fight against Trump’s Alaskan pipe dream” via Antonia Juhasz of Rolling Stone

—”Rahm Emanuel, weighing presidential bid, navigates a Democratic Party moving left” via John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal

—”Florida leaders celebrate higher ed rankings success while touting low tuition, anti-DEI policies” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Ron DeSantis thinks Charlie Kirk has greater reach since his death” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”Poll: Two in three Floridians today would vote to reduce or eliminate property taxes” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—“Central Florida mostly ignored DeSantis push to lower property taxes” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel

—”The curious conservative war on beer” via Alexander Sammon of Slate

Quote of the Day

“Are we going to do like an O.J. Simpson trial just to (prove) somebody’s here illegally?”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, claiming he convinced the Trump administration to speed up deportations.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Instead of a drink, give Gov. Ron DeSantis a cocktail scoresheet for bringing up university DOGE report cards during an event celebrating seven state universities earning Top 100 rankings.

We’re still waiting for mixologists to concoct the Polished, Shiny Badge; until then, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds will have to make do with a Rusty Sheriff’s Badge in honor of his bulk endorsement from 15 county sheriffs.

Former (and potentially future) Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn earned an Iconika (Florida citrus-powered, of course) for landing a top award from Tampa Bay Business & Wealth.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Winless Dolphins host winless Jets on Monday Night Football

The Miami Dolphins seek the first win of the season when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Both Miami and the Jets have started the season 0-3. They are, along with the Tennessee Titans, the only winless teams in the AFC. The New Orleans Saints are the only other team without a victory this season in the NFL.

Miami is dealing with a rash of injuries at cornerback. Starter Storm Duck and reserves Jason Marshall and Cam Smith have been ruled out of the game, while third-stringer Ethan Bonner is questionable. Rasul Douglas is expected to start at one cornerback spot with regular starter Jack Jones on the opposite side.

The good news is that the Jets’ passing game has been among the worst in the NFL this season, averaging 145 yards per game. Neither team has moved the ball effectively this season. Miami averages 282 yards of total offense per game, while the Jets average 272 yards.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled this season, throwing five touchdown passes and four interceptions. Tagovailoa has completed only five passes that have gone for more than 20 yards this season.

Miami’s defense has also struggled, surrendering more than 30 points in each of the first three games.

If the Dolphins are going to salvage the season, they must beat the Jets tonight. Next week, they travel to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Red Hills Strategies announces promotions, additions to ‘Rockstar Roster’

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As the 2026 Session ramps up, Red Hills Strategies is shuffling its roster with a couple of promotions and a pair of new hires.

The political communications and strategy firm is bumping Maggie Gahan up to director and Caroline Hamon to creative project manager. Team Red Hills is also adding Anna Stallworth and Charlotte Roberts to its strategic communications team.

Gahan, a Florida Politics 2025 Rising Star, led the successful communications program behind “Lucy’s Law,” 2025 legislation to strengthen safety on Florida’s waterways. She also works for Tampa General Hospital and supports elected officials while managing high-profile events, including TGH Day at the Capitol and Robinhood’s Financial Education Fair.​

“Maggie is an asset to this team in every way. She’s an incredible leader, a strategic thinker and a hard worker,” said Red Hills founder and President Amanda Bevis. “She has proven indispensable to many of our initiatives, and she handles high-pressure moments with a lot of grace — like a swan.”

Hamon’s promotion, meanwhile, comes as Red Hills expands its in-house creative operation. Her designs drive many of the brands and initiatives Red Hills has launched, appearing on digital platforms, collateral materials and billboards across Florida.

“Caroline brings ideas to life with smart, compelling visuals that move people to act,” said Brittany Clark, Vice President and Creative Strategist. “Our clients trust her to translate complex policy goals into clear, beautiful, creative.”

Stallworth, a recent graduate of Troy University, comes aboard as creative coordinator. Before joining Red Hills, she handled creative needs for local businesses, from hardware stores to boutiques, as well as university-affiliated organizations and events. She recently completed an internship with BowStern in Tallahassee, where she supported marketing efforts for regional clients.

Roberts joined the firm earlier this month, bringing depth to Red Hills’ strategic communications bench. She holds a master’s degree in mass communications from the University of Florida, where she was a member of Florida Blue Key and a Reitz Scholar. Her internship experience ranges from Comcast in Atlanta to Lakeland EDC near her hometown.

“The team at Red Hills Strategies is distinguished for its proactive efforts, high-quality work and meaningful results,” Bevis said. “We’re energized by the expansion of this team, which not only boosts our capacity but also brings fresh perspectives and creative thinking. More bright minds working together will lead to more dynamic campaigns that help our clients stand out in a crowded space.”



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DNC declares Donald Trump’s first year in office a ‘complete disaster’

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Exactly one year ago, Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term while promising the American public that help was on the way, particularly regarding affordability.

The issue had already been creating major challenges for lower- and middle-income earners across the nation. One year in, Trump continues to claim the nation is enjoying an “economic boom.” But the Democratic National Committee (DNC) wholly disagrees, especially for Floridians.

“The numbers don’t lie: Trump’s first year back in office has been a complete disaster for Florida families. Trump broke his promise to lower costs on Day One and instead has made life far more expensive for Florida families,” said Tim Hogan, the DNC’s senior advisor for messaging, mobilization and strategy.

“Because of Trump’s Big Ugly Bill and failed economic policies, unemployment in Florida is up, families are paying $1,060 more a year, and 1,500,000 Floridians will be kicked off their health care after Trump let premiums skyrocket. While Donald Trump may think affordability is a hoax, Florida families know better, which is why they are putting their trust in Democrats who will keep fighting to lower costs and protect health care.”

A DNC study last week found Florida is one of 26 states where unemployment has risen since Trump took office, at a 0.7-percentage-point increase. The $1,060 figure is the approximate amount Florida households are losing through higher costs related to Trump’s tariffs and his “One Big Beautiful Bill” package, which the DNC and other Democratic groups have taken to calling the “Big Ugly Bill.”

The same study estimated that expiring premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act would lead to 1.5 million Floridians losing health coverage, one of the highest numbers in the nation behind only California.

But the DNC’s critique does not stop there. Democrats point to a Joint Economic Committee Minority report this month finding that families paid $310 more for groceries during Trump’s first year in office than they did in 2024.

The DNC’s own study found that working American families have lost $585 to inflation and that nearly 4.5 million Floridians who rely on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace for health coverage are seeing premiums skyrocket, which the DNC attributes to Trump’s refusal to extend tax credits. It’s worth noting that while Trump opposed extending the credits, Congress declined to pass an extension.

Additionally, cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, colloquially known as food stamps, will mean more than 1.6 million Floridians lose some or all of their food benefits, according to the DNC analysis. The Harvard Kennedy School found that the legislation is cutting about $186 billion from the program over 10 years, a 20% cut that is the largest in the program’s history.

And what the DNC describes as failures seem to be also resonating with the American public, with new polling on Trump’s first year in office showing twice as many Americans say Trump is focused on the wrong priorities as the right ones. The AP-NORC poll also shows 60% of U.S. adults think Trump has done more to hurt than help the cost of living in his second term.

Meanwhile, the poll finds only 4 in 10 approve of Trump’s job performance. While Trump is far underwater in his approval rating, it has improved slightly since December, when his disapproval was at 61%, compared to 59% now. Even at his highest approval since March, Trump was still underwater, with 53% disapproving of his job performance.



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New statewide insurance trust enters 2026 with sustained growth and millions more in taxpayer savings

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The Florida Educator Health Trust (FLEHT) enters 2026 less than a year old, but already with significant progress under its belt.

Established to help Florida School Districts save on employee health plans without having to pass along benefit reductions, the program opened last June with just three counties on board, representing 1,671 public school employees in DeSoto, Hardee and Hendry counties.

By the end of December, the nonprofit health insurance program had eight counties enrolled, with the addition of Brevard, Charlotte, Okeechobee, Highlands and Polk counties, bringing its total public school employee representation to nearly 22,000 people.

As of mid-January, more School Boards have voted to join the program at various points throughout 2026, which will bring the total counties enrolled to 15.

“In an era of rising health insurance costs for employees, we set out to provide much-needed services to School Districts without compromising benefits to educators, and it is working,” said Ted Roush, a former Superintendent of Schools and FLEHT Executive Director.

“In only 6 months, we have shown demonstrable savings to the districts, and consequently to taxpayers, realizing savings in the millions of dollars. Our growth — going from three to 15 counties in our first year of full operation — will allow us to continue achieving significant economies of scale, saving taxpayers even more money while maintaining a high level of health insurance for district employees.”

“By harnessing the power of the group district membership, FLEHT is able to perform for the whole what is not possible individually in the insurance marketplace,” Roush added.

The FLEHT realizes savings for School Districts by bringing Districts together to deliver efficient health programs for employees.

Formerly known as the FSHIP program, it was established in 2009 by the Florida School Board Insurance Trust. The program transitioned to FLEHT under the Florida Association of District School Superintendents last year. The change was meant to align the needs of Florida educators.

The FLEHT under its new structure is overseen by an executive committee composed of Superintendents, with all member Districts represented with voting trustees.

Hernando County is expected to be the next School Board to enter into a participation agreement with FLEHT. Program officials estimate they will have as many as 20 School Districts on board by Spring Break season. The group also estimates it has saved taxpayers more than $12 million.

The program is responding to rising health care premiums across the U.S. While cost of living is already creating a challenge, at an estimated 17% increase, health care premiums have increased by 45%, according to the National Council on Teacher Quality.

In order to participate in FLEHT, School Boards must first adopt a participation agreement. The District must already be or become self-insured. From there, the District establishes a transition plan into FLEHT and then formally enters the program. Once a District is a member, its Superintendent becomes a member/trustee of the program.

The program estimates savings of 7%-12% when fully transitioning from a fully-insured health insurance plan to a self-insured FLEHT participant. Within one to three years, the program claims members will enjoy savings of up to 13%.



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