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Everyone’s wondering if, and when, the AI bubble will pop. Here’s what went down 25 years ago that ultimately burst the dot-com boom

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The similarities are striking. Like the internet companies of two decades ago, AI firms today attract massive investments based on transformative potential rather than current profitability. Global corporate AI investment reached $252.3 billion in 2024, according to research from Stanford University, with the sector growing thirteenfold since 2014. Meanwhile, America’s biggest tech companies—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—have pledged to spend a record $320 billion on capital expenditures this year alone, much of it for AI infrastructure.

Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, whose company is valued at approximately $500 billion despite launching ChatGPT just two years ago, acknowledges the parallels. “

Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes,” Altman said in August. “Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes.”

But what actually caused the dot-com bubble to burst in March 2000, and what lessons does it offer for today’s AI boom? Let’s take a stroll down memory lane—or, if you weren’t born yet, some plain ole history.

The perfect storm of 2000

The dot-com crash wasn’t triggered by a single event, but rather a convergence of factors that exposed fundamental weaknesses in the late 1990s tech economy. The first critical blow came from the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates multiple times throughout 1999 and 2000. The federal funds rate climbed from around 4.7% in early 1999 to 6.5% by May 2000, making speculative investments less attractive as investors could earn higher returns from safer bonds.

The second catalyst was a broader economic recession that began in Japan in March 2000, triggering global market fears and accelerating the flight from risky assets. This one-two punch of higher rates and global uncertainty caused investors to reassess the astronomical valuations of internet companies.

But the underlying problem ran much deeper: Most dot-com companies had fundamentally flawed business models. Commerce One reached a $21 billion valuation despite minimal revenue. TheGlobe.com, founded by two Cornell students with $15,000 in startup capital, saw its stock price jump 606% on its first day of trading to $63.50, despite having no revenue beyond venture funding. Pets.com burned through $300 million in just 268 days before declaring bankruptcy.

Infrastructure overbuild

Perhaps the most instructive parallel for today’s AI boom lies in the massive infrastructure overinvestment that preceded the dot-com crash. Telecommunications companies laid more than 80 million miles of fiber optic cables across the U.S., driven by WorldCom’s wildly inflated claim that internet traffic was doubling every 100 days—far beyond the actual annual doubling rate.

Companies like Global Crossing, Level 3, and Qwest raced to build massive networks to capture anticipated demand that never materialized. The result was catastrophic overcapacity. Even four years after the bubble burst, 85% to 95% of the fiber laid in the 1990s remained unused, earning the nickname “dark fiber.”

Corning, the world’s largest optical-fiber producer, saw its stock crash from nearly $100 in 2000 to about $1 by 2002. Ciena’s revenue fell from $1.6 billion to $300 million almost overnight, with its stock plunging 98% from its peak.

The parallels to today’s AI infrastructure buildout are unmistakable. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced plans this year for an AI data center “so large it could cover a significant part of Manhattan”. The Stargate Project, backed by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX, aims to develop a $500 billion nationwide network of AI data centers.

Yet, crucial differences exist. Unlike many dot-com companies that had no revenue, major AI players are generating substantial income. Microsoft’s Azure cloud service, heavily focused on AI, grew 39% year-over-year to an $86 billion run rate. OpenAI projects $20 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year, according to The Information, up from around $6 billion at the start of the year.

The big reality check

The dot-com crash ultimately came down to a harsh reality: Most internet companies couldn’t justify their valuations with actual business results. Companies were valued based on website traffic and growth metrics rather than traditional measures like cash flow and profitability.

Today’s AI companies face a similar test. While AI investment has reached historic levels, the revenue gap remains substantial. According to tech writer Ed Zitron, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, and Google will have invested about $560 billion in AI infrastructure over the last two years, but have brought in just $35 billion in AI-related revenue combined.

A recent MIT study found that 95% of AI pilot projects fail to yield meaningful results, despite more than $40 billion in generative AI investment. This disconnect between investment and returns echoes the fundamental problem that ultimately doomed the dot-com bubble.

The question facing investors today isn’t whether AI will transform the economy—most experts agree it will. The question is whether current valuations and infrastructure investments can be justified by near-term returns, or whether, like the fiber-optic cables of the 1990s, much of today’s AI infrastructure will sit unused while the market awaits demand to catch up with supply. As history shows, even transformative technologies can’t escape the gravitational pull of economics—so while the internet did change the world, it didn’t happen as quickly as some of its early champions promised, and several of those people who got ahead of themselves were humbled in the process.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.



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Gates Foundation, OpenAI unveil $50 million ‘Horizon1000’ initiative to boost healthcare in Africa through AI

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In a major effort to close the global health equity gap, the Gates Foundation and OpenAI are partnering on “Horizon1000,” a collaborative initiative designed to integrate artificial intelligence into healthcare systems across Sub-Saharan Africa. Backed by a joint $50 million commitment in funding, technology, and technical support, the partnership aims to equip 1,000 primary healthcare clinics with AI tools by 2028, Bill Gates announced in a statement on his Gates Notes, where he detailed how he sees AI playing out as a “gamechanger” for expanding access to quality care.

The initiative will begin operations in Rwanda, working directly with African leaders to pioneer the deployment of AI in health settings. With a core principle of the Foundation being to ensure that people in developing regions do not have to wait decades for new technologies to reach them, the goal in this partnership is to reach 1,000 primary health care clinics and their surrounding communities by 2028.

“A few years ago, I wrote that the rise of artificial intelligence would mark a technological revolution as far-reaching for humanity as microprocessors, PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet,” Gates wrote. “Everything I’ve seen since then confirms my view that we are on the cusp of a breathtaking global transformation.”

Addressing a Critical Workforce Shortage

The impetus for Horizon1000, Gates said, is a desperate and persistent shortage of healthcare workers in poorer regions, a bottleneck that threatens to stall 25 years of progress in global health. While child mortality has been halved and diseases like polio and HIV are under better control, the lack of personnel remains a critical vulnerability.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently faces a shortfall of nearly 6 million healthcare workers, ” a gap so large that even the most aggressive hiring and training efforts can’t close it in the foreseeable future.” This deficit creates an untenable situation where overwhelmed staff must triage high volumes of patients without sufficient administrative support or modern clinical guidance. The consequences are severe: the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that low-quality care is a contributing factor in 6 million to 8 million deaths annually in low- and middle-income countries.

Rwanda, the first beneficiary of the Horizon1000 initiative, illustrates the scale of the challenge. The nation currently has only one healthcare worker per 1,000 people, significantly below the WHO recommendation of four per 1,000. Gates noted that at the current pace of hiring and training, it would take 180 years to close that gap. “As part of the Horizon1000 initiative, we aim to accelerate the adoption of AI tools across primary care clinics, within communities, and in people’s homes,” Gates wrote. “These AI tools will support health workers, not replace them.”

AI as the ‘Third Major Discovery

Gates noted comments from Rwanda’s Minister of Health Dr. Sabin Nsanzimana, who recently announced the launch of an AI-powered Health Intelligence Center in Kigali. Nsanzimana described AI as the third major discovery to transform medicine, following vaccines and antibiotics, Gates noted, saying that he agrees with this view. “If you live in a wealthier country and have seen a doctor recently, you may have already seen how AI is making life easier for health care workers,” Gates wrote. “Instead of taking notes constantly, they can now spend more time talking directly to you about your health, while AI transcribes and summarizes the visit.”

In countries with severe infrastructure limitations, he wrote, these capabilities will foster systems that help solve “generational challenges” that were previously unaddressable.

As the initiative rolls out over the next few years, the Gates Foundation plans to collaborate closely with innovators and governments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gates wrote that he himself plans to visit the region soon to see these AI solutions in action, maintaining a focus on how technology can meet the most urgent needs of billions in low- and middle-income countries.



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On Netflix’s earnings call, co-CEOs can’t quell fears about the Warner Bros. bid

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When it comes to creating irresistible storylines, Netflix, the home of Stranger Things and The Crown, is second to none. And as the streaming video giant delivered its quarterly earnings report on Tuesday, executives were in top storytelling form, pitching what they promise will be a smash hit: the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

The company’s co-CEOs, Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, said the deal, which values Warner Brothers Discovery at $83 billion, will accelerate its own core streaming business while helping it expand into TV and the theatrical film business. 

“This is an exciting time in the business. Lots of innovation, lots of competition,” Sarandos enthused on Tuesday’s earnings conference call. Netflix has a history of successful transformation and of pivoting opportunistically, he reminded the audience: Once upon a time, its main business entailed mailing DVDs in red envelopes to customers’ homes. 

Despite Sarandos’ confident delivery, however, the pitch didn’t land with investors. The company’s stock, which was already down 15% since Netflix announced the deal in early December, sank another 4.9% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. 

Netflix’s financial results for the final quarter of 2025 were fine. The company beat EPS expectations by a penny, and said it now has 325 million paid subscribers and a worldwide total audience nearing 1 billion. Its 2026 revenue outlook, of between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, was right on target.  

Still, investors are worried that the Warner Bros. deal will force Netflix to compete outside its lane, causing management to lose focus. The fact that Netflix will temporarily halt its share buybacks in order to accumulate cash to help finance the deal, as it disclosed towards the bottom of Tuesday’s shareholder letter, probably didn’t help matters. 

And given that there’s a rival offer for Warner Bros from Paramount Skydance, it’s not unreasonable for investors to worry that Netflix may be forced into an expensive bidding war. (Even though Warner Brothers Discovery has accepted the Netflix offer over Paramount’s, no one believes the story is over—not even Netflix, which updated its $27.75 per share offer to all-cash, instead of stock and cash, hours earlier on Tuesday in order to provide WBD shareholders with “greater value certainty.”) 

Investors are wary; will regulators balk?

Warner Brothers investors are not the only audience that Netflix needs to win over. The deal must be blessed by antitrust regulators—a prospect whose outcome is harder to predict than ever in the Trump administration.

Sarandos and Peters laid out the case Tuesday for why they believe the deal will get through the regulatory process, framing the deal as a boon for American jobs.

“This is going to allow us to significantly expand our production capacity in the U.S. and to keep investing in original content in the long term, which means more opportunities for creative talent and more jobs,” Sarandos said.

Referring to Warner Brothers’ television and film businesses, he added that “these folks have extensive experience and expertise. We want them to stay on and run those businesses. We’re expanding content creation not collapsing it.”

It’s a compelling story. But the co-CEOs may have neglected to study the most important script of all when it comes to getting government approval in the current administration; they forgot to recite the Trump lines. 

The example has been set over the past 12 months by peers such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg. The latter, with his company facing various federal regulatory threats, began publicly praising the Trump administration on an earnings call last January. 

And Nvidia’s Huang has already seen real dividends from a similar strategy. The chip company CEO has praised Trump repeatedly on earnings calls, in media interviews, and in conference keynote speeches, calling him “America’s unique advantage” in AI. Since then, the U.S. ban on selling Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China has been rescinded. The praise may have been coincidental to the outcome, but it certainly didn’t hurt.

In contrast, the president went unmentioned on Tuesday’s call. How significant Netflix’s omission of a Trump call-out turns out to be remains to be seen; maybe it won’t matter at all. But it’s worth noting that its competitor for Warner Bros., Paramount Skydance, is helmed by David Ellison, an outspoken Trump supporter. 

It’s a storyline that Netflix should have seen coming, and itmay still send the company back to rewrite.



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Americans are paying nearly all of the tariff burden as international exports die down, study finds

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After nearly a year of promises tariffs would boost the U.S. economy while other countries footed the bill, a new study shows almost all of the tariff burden is falling on American consumers. 

Americans are paying 96% of the costs of tariffs as prices for goods rise, according to research published Monday by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank. 

In April 2025 when President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, he claimed: “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike.” But the report suggests tariffs have actually cost Americans more money.

Trump has long used tariffs as leverage in non-trade political disputes. Over the weekend, Trump renewed his trade war in Europe after Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland sent troops for training exercises in Greenland. The countries will be hit with a 10% tariff starting on Feb. 1 that is set to rise to 25% on June 1, if a deal for the U.S. to buy Greenland is not reached. 

On Monday, Trump threatened a 200% tariff on French wine, after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to join Trump’s “Board of Peace” for Gaza, which has a $1 billion buy-in for permanent membership. 

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” wrote Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute and an author of the study. “The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.” 

The research shows export prices stayed the same, but the volume has collapsed. After imposing a 50% tariff on India in August, exports to the U.S. dropped 18% to 24%, compared to the European Union, Canada, and Australia. Exporters are redirecting sales to other markets, so they don’t need to cut sales or prices, according to the study.

“There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs,” Hinz told The Wall Street Journal

For the study, Hinz and his team analyzed more than 25 million shipment records between January 2024 through November 2025 that were worth nearly $4 trillion.They found exporters absorbed just 4% of the tariff burden and American importers are largely passing on the costs to consumers. 

Tariffs have increased customs revenue by $200 billion, but nearly all of that comes from American consumers. The study’s authors likened this to a consumption tax as wealth transfers from consumers and businesses to the U.S. Treasury.   

Trump has also repeatedly claimed tariffs would boost American manufacturing, butthe economy has shown declines in manufacturing jobs every month since April 2025, losing 60,000 manufacturing jobs between Liberation Day and November. 

The Supreme Court was expected to rule as soon as today on whether Trump’s use of emergency powers to levy tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was legal. The court initially announced they planned to rule last week and gave no explanation for the delay. 

Although justices appeared skeptical of the administration’s authority during oral arguments in November, economists predict the Trump administration will find alternative ways to keep the tariffs.



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