Business

The U.S. economy is running even hotter than previously thought, and GDP growth could reach 4% in Q3

Published

4 months ago

September 27, 2025

While some on Wall Street are worried about a recession, recent economic data show that GDP growth is actually speeding up faster than earlier numbers indicated.

On Thursday, second-quarter growth was revised even higher, to 3.8% from a prior reading of 3.3%, on robust consumer spending. That’s after a first-quarter dip that was driven by President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Meanwhile, third-quarter growth is shaping up to be hotter. Durable goods orders for August jumped more than expected, according to data released on Thursday. And the personal income and spending report on Friday showed consumption remained healthy in August while also topping forecasts.

Given that consumer spending represents over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the gains more than offset weakness in housing, which remains buffeted by high home prices and mortgage rates.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker now puts third-quarter growth at 3.9%, up from an earlier estimate of 3.3%, citing the consumption data and a narrower trade deficit in August.

Growth may not stop at that lofty rate. Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday that the income and spending data should further ease fears that the U.S. is on the cusp of a sharp slowdown.

He also noted that discretionary spending, which typically is cut when consumers are suffering, drove growth. And while gains in spending have outpaced income for the last three months, the August savings rate was still at a relatively high 4.6%, meaning consumers are not yet overextended.

“The rise in real consumption in August means that, given the stronger momentum going into the third quarter, we now have third-quarter consumption growth tracking as high as 3.3%, up from 2.3% last week,” Brown added. “Third-quarter GDP growth will be as high as 4%.”

To be sure, stronger GDP also means the Federal Reserve will be under less pressure to lower rates aggressively. Capital Economics expects the Fed to cut at only one of its two remaining meetings this year, while Wall Street is betting on cuts at both meetings.

Recession fears

The upbeat growth forecast contrasts with warnings from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, who has said the economy is “on the precipice of recession.”

While the third quarter, which ends on Tuesday, looks good, he predicted the U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as the impacts of Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown peak.

And despite consumption staying resilient in the face of elevated inflation and tariffs, housing could still lead the economy lower. Zandi has pointed to building permits as the most critical economic variable for predicting recessions, and they are now at pandemic-era lows.

The gains in aggregate consumption also obscure the sharp divide among American consumers, and the growing reliance on top earners.

Moody’s recently estimated that the bottom 80% of earners have merely spent in line with inflation since the pandemic, while the top 20% are driving growth.

“As long as they keep spending, the economy should avoid recession, but if they turn more cautious, for whatever reason, the economy has a big problem,” Zandi noted.

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Business

Davos 2026: reading the signals, not the headlines

Published

19 minutes ago

January 21, 2026

Jace Porter

Davos 2026: reading the signals, not the headlines | Fortune

Louisa Loran advises boards and leadership teams on transformation and long-term value creation and currently serves on the boards of Copenhagen Business School and CataCap Private Equity. At Google, Louisa launched a billion-dollar supply chain solutions business, doubled growth in a global industry vertical, and led strategic business transformation for the company’s largest customers in EMEA—working at the forefront of AI, data, and platform innovation. At Maersk, she co-authored the strategy that redefined the brand globally and doubled its share price, helping pivot the company from traditional shipping to integrated logistics. Her career began in the luxury and FMCG space with Moët Hennessy and Diageo, where she built iconic brands and led innovation at the intersection of heritage and digital transformation.

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Business

Hotels allege predatory pricing, forced exclusivity in Trip.com antitrust probe

Published

51 minutes ago

January 21, 2026

Jace Porter

China’s hotels are welcoming record numbers of travelers, yet room rates are sinking—a paradox many operators blame on Trip.com Group Ltd.

For Gary Huang, running a five-room homestay in the scenic Huzhou hills near Shanghai was supposed to secure his family’s financial future. Instead, he and other hoteliers in China’s southeastern Zhejiang province say nightly rates have fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, as Trip.com’s frequent discount campaigns force them to cut prices simply to remain visible on China’s dominant booking platform.

“The promotion campaigns now are almost a daily routine,” said Huang, who asked to use his self-given English name out of concern of speaking out against Trip.com. “We have to constantly cut prices at least 15% to attract travelers. We have no choice but to go along with the price cuts.”

Trip.com has been central to China’s post-pandemic travel rebound, connecting millions of travelers with small operators like Huang. But for many hotels, visibility—and sometimes survival—comes at the expense of profits.

That dynamic is now at the heart of Beijing’s antitrust probe. Regulators allege Trip.com is abusing its market position, with analysts citing deflation across the sector as the government’s main concern. Interviews with lodging operators, industry groups and travel consultants describe a system where constant price-cutting and opaque policies are eroding profitability, even as demand rebounds.

Trip.com has said it’s cooperating with the government’s investigation. The company’s stock dove more 16% since the probe was announced a week ago.

Revenue per room—a key hotel metric—was flat across China in 2025, even as other Asian markets saw gains, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Marriott International Inc.’s revenue per room in China fell 1% most of last year, while Hilton’s China room revenue trailed its regional peers.

The company controls about 56% of China’s online travel market, according to China Trading Desk, and has grown into the world’s largest booking site. Its dominance has helped fuel domestic tourism’s recovery—nearly 5 billion trips were logged in the first three quarters of 2025—but operators say the benefits are being offset by falling room yields.

“The market has developed unevenly and innovation is lacking due to monopolistic practices,” said He Shuangquan, head of the Yunnan Provincial Tourism Homestay Industry Association that represents some 7,000 operators. “The entire online travel agency sector is stagnating in a pool of dead water.”

‘Pick-one-of-two’

The broader challenge is oversupply and cautious consumer spending. In regions like Yunnan, hotel capacity has tripled since the pandemic, just as travelers tightened budgets. Consultants note that while people are traveling more, they’re spending less—leaving hotels slashing rates to fill empty beds and posting billions in losses.

For operators like Huang, the paradox is stark: the platform that delivers customers is also accelerating the race to the bottom. The complaints center around Trip.com’s “er xuan yi,” Mandarin for pick-one-of-two exclusivity arrangements—a practice that Chinese regulators have repeatedly vowed to stamp out.

Trip.com categorizes merchants into tiers with “Special Merchants” enjoying the most visibility and traffic, Yunnan Provincial Tourism’s He said. However, these top-tier merchants are typically prohibited from listing on rival platforms like Alibaba’s Fliggy, ByteDance’s Douyin or Meituan. Merchants who aren’t bound by these exclusive arrangements report being effectively compelled to offer the lowest prices on Trip.com’s online booking platform Ctrip, or risk facing a raft of measures like lowered search rankings.

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Business

CEOs at Davos are buying into the agentic AI hype

Published

1 hour ago

January 21, 2026

Jace Porter

Good morning. The atmosphere here at the World Economic Forum in Davos is all about nervous excitement as the Trump administration descends on the normally quaint but currently chaotic ski town in the Alps.

President Donald Trump will be making remarks just a couple hours from now, and Fortune will be reporting live from USA House on the main promenade, with insights from government officials and chief executives during and immediately following the president’s conversation. Keep an eye on our livestream, here https://fortune.com/2026/01/21/ceos-davos-buy-into-the-agentic-ai-hype/.

Elsewhere around town, CEOs are setting their agendas for the year. Here’s what’s top of mind for a few of them:

This will actually be the year of agentic AI. The first time I heard the term “agentic AI” was at Davos last year. For all the hype around it, does the average CEO really know what it is or how to deploy it? And is AI good enough yet for agents to replace or even significantly assist human employees? The answer appears to be yes. Google Gemini head Demis Hassabis told me that Gemini 3 achieved some milestones that allow agentic AI to truly proliferate in terms of its capabilities. ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott is also an emphatic “yes,” and says he is already using it to do things like automate his IT department (without doing layoffs, he stresses; he says he has repurposed employees instead). He thinks other CEOs are ready to do the same.

Get ready for Google glasses—for real, this time. A decade ago, Google launched its Google Glass eyewear to widespread mockery. Hassabis thinks the timing was just off; at the time there was no super app to go on the platform. AI has changed that, and Hassabis is bullish on Gemini glasses being the future form for consumer AI. Meta is betting the same thing, and OpenAI is also reportedly considering a super-device, but it doesn’t seem like either can match Gemini’s capabilities any time soon.

There’s artificial intelligence, and now there’s also “energy intelligence.” Schneider Electric CEO Olivier Blum says that nailing energy intelligence is his mission this year. By that he means he wants to capture data from various energy sources into a single “data cube,” filter it, and use agentic AI so customers can manage it all in one place to find opportunities to save power and money. “Our job is to make sure we go to the next level of energy technology to make energy more intelligent,” he told me yesterday. If he can achieve it, he sees a 7%-10% annual growth opportunity ahead.

Greenland: national panic or national security risk? I’ve heard various reactions to President Trump’s desire for a full U.S. takeover of the huge island—from outrage to vigorous support. If he does get his wish (which some here think is likely), could Europe retaliate by making life harder and more restrictive for big U.S. tech companies? That was one CEO’s consideration. Said another: “Clear-eyed people can agree that that is a national security concern. And having a national security concern is not just a U.S. concern, it’s also a NATO concern.” They were optimistic that the in-person meetings this week would help move the matter in a positive direction. You can follow all our Davos coverage—including Fortune live interviews today with Ray Dalio, Dara Khosrowshahi and more—right here.—Alyson Shontell

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

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