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Jerome Powell warns there’s ‘no risk-free path’ to avoid stagflation: ‘We have a situation where we have two-sided risk’

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The Federal Reserve faces a daunting challenge in seeking to guide the U.S. economy clear of stagflation, Chair Jerome Powell said following the central bank’s September 2025 policy meeting, warning there is “no risk-free path” ahead for the central bank. The frank admission highlights how policymakers are navigating an environment marked by persistent inflation and slowing economic growth, with significant risks on every side.

Jerome Powell delivered his remarks as the Federal Open Market Committee announced its first interest rate cut in nine months, lowering the federal funds rate by a quarter-point to a range of 4.0% to 4.25%. The FOMC statement explained that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”

Powell told reporters that considering the risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, it’s “a challenging situation when our goals are in tension like this,” explaining that the Fed’s framework calls for a balance of both sides of the dual mandate for full employment and moderate inflation. “So we have a situation where we have two-sided risk,” he said, “and that means there’s no risk-free path.”

Signs of stagflation

Key indicators point toward the emergence of stagflation—a toxic mix of sluggish growth and elevated prices. Recent government reports showed consumer prices increased by 0.4% in August, pushing annual inflation to 2.9%, the highest since January. At the same time, initial unemployment claims surged to their highest level in four years, with about 263,000 people filing for benefits in the first week of September. Job growth averages have slowed to just 35,000 per month over the last quarter, down from 168,000 per month in 2024. Unemployment has crept up to 4.3%, also the highest in years and another worrying sign for household finances.

Harvard economist Jason Furman commented on Bluesky that “the whiff of stagflation is getting stronger … Given the current situation, the Fed has limited options.” The Fed’s own projections affirm the challenge: inflation is above target, and in June it lowered growth forecasts for the year from 1.7% to 1.4%.

Powell’s comments reflect the fundamental difficulty: cutting rates too aggressively could reignite inflation, while keeping them high risks deepening the economic slowdown. “The Fed is in a pickle, with inflation pulling them one way and a softening job market pulling the other,” Bill Adams, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank, told Fortune in an emailed statement. Bank of America Research has found that cutting rates against a backdrop of rising inflation has only happened 16% of the time since 1973, and the last time was in late 2007, which in retrospect was shortly before the onset of the Great Financial Crisis.

Global and political implications

The Fed’s stance also carries global risks. Higher U.S. interest rates typically strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on emerging markets that borrow in American currency. Foreign central banks face similar dilemmas as the European Central Bank and Bank of England contend with their own stagflation pressures.

The political climate adds further complexity. Powell is dealing with mounting pressure from the White House and Congress, with demands both for relief to prevent recession and vigilance to curb inflation. He sounded a plaintive note in response to a question on what the Fed will do if inflation continues to rise: “Our expectation … has been that inflation will move up this year.” He said this is basically the effect of tariffs on the prices of goods, and the Fed thinks this will be a one-time price increase.

“The situation we’re in is that we see, we see inflation. We continue to expect it to move up, maybe not as high as we would have expected it to move up a few months ago,” but still moving up. He said the Fed will “do what we need to do,” but it’s “quite an unusual situation. How do we decide what to do? Because our tools can’t do two things at once.”

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$1 billion fraud revealed with guilty pleas from subprime auto lender Tricolor

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The founder of Tricolor Holdings led other top executives of the subprime auto lender on a seven-year campaign to defraud its largest lenders out of nearly $1 billion, authorities said Wednesday, as they announced two arrests and guilty pleas by two former executives.

Daniel Chu, the company’s founder and chief executive, was charged in an indictment unsealed in Manhattan federal court with directing multiple executives since 2018 to defraud investors and lending institutions. The fraudulent schemes included fabricating data and making false statements, according to the indictment.

A defense lawyer for Chu did not immediately return a message seeking comment.

Chu, 62, of Miami, was arrested in Florida, while David Goodgame, 49, of Waxahachie, Texas, the company’s former chief operating officer, was arrested in Texas. It was not immediately clear who will represent Goodgame at an initial court appearance.

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton told a news conference that Chu repeatedly lied to banks and other credit providers as he turned fraud “into an integral component of Tricolor’s business strategy.”

He said the collapse of the company dealt a blow to car-buying customers who needed the services of a lending business that catered to people with troubled credit histories.

“Of course, if you have something like this happen, if you have fraud in that area, it becomes harder for those people to get auto loans,” Clayton said.

According to the indictment, the scope of the fraud was revealed in late August when lenders confronted Chu and other executives about Tricolor’s collateral.

Chu and others accused of carrying out the fraud initially tried to conceal it, saying the collateral issues were due to an administrative error, the indictment said. After those efforts failed, Chu extracted over $6 million from the company, spending some of it on the August purchase of a multimillion dollar property in Beverly Hills, California, the indictment said.

On Sept. 10, Tricolor filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy because it owed over $900 million to the company’s largest lenders, the indictment said.

Chu could face a mandatory minimum sentence of 10 years in prison and a maximum of life behind bars if he is convicted on the top charge of running a continuing financial crimes enterprise. Other charges include conspiracy, bank fraud and wire fraud. Goodgame was charged with conspiracy, bank fraud and wire fraud.

Authorities also announced that a former chief financial officer and a former finance executive at Tricolor had pleaded guilty to charges on Tuesday in Manhattan and were cooperating with the government.



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‘Trump Accounts’ for kids get funding boost from Dalio and BlackRock

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A new savings vehicle, dubbed “Trump accounts,” is designed to help the rising generation of American children build wealth into adulthood. 

Under the multitrillion-dollar tax and spending bill signed by President Donald Trump in July, the federal government will contribute $1,000 to accounts set up for every American baby born in the next few years. 

The initiative got a boost on Dec. 2 when billionaires Michael and Susan Dell announced a $6.25 billion gift to seed accounts for millions of older children as well. Other big names in business and finance, including Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio and BlackRock Inc., soon followed with smaller pledges of their own.

Lawmakers significantly scaled back the flexibility and tax benefits of the program since the initial proposal. While the accounts could serve as a springboard for long-term savings, there are other investment vehicles, especially 529 plans, that offer greater tax advantages.

Here’s how the accounts are supposed to work and how the new infusion of money might affect the program.

How will Trump accounts work?

For each account, annual contributions would be capped at $5,000, an amount that would be adjusted for inflation. The idea is for parents, relatives and even the employers of caregivers to pitch in money over time. The federal government, as well as state, local or tribal governments, could also contribute and aren’t subject to the cap.

The accounts would be locked up until the child turns 18. At that point, Trump accounts essentially become individual retirement accounts, which can be used penalty-free for certain expenses such as higher education or first-time home purchases. 

Only one account is allowed per person. The US Treasury will issue regulations requiring the funds be invested in mutual or exchange-traded index funds (ETFs) that “primarily” hold US stocks. Funds must charge low fees and not use leverage, according to the law signed in July.

Another exception to the contribution limit applies to nonprofits, including 501(c)(3) and 501(c)(4) organizations, which could give to recipients based on where they live. 

Parents, relatives, employers or philanthropists can contribute to a designated recipient’s Trump account through the year they turn 17. The Internal Revenue Service has said parents will be allowed to start contributing on behalf of children starting on July 4, 2026. 

Also, through a pilot program, the US government would contribute $1,000 to accounts for babies born from the beginning of 2025 through the end of 2028. Caregivers will be able to sign up children for an account through an online portal administered by the IRS.

What’s the significance of the contributions by business leaders? 

The commitments from corporations and well-heeled donors demonstrate how companies and business leaders are eager to demonstrate public support for a program that Trump views as part of his presidential legacy.

Dalio said his foundation would donate $250 each to roughly 300,000 “Trump accounts” for children in Connecticut. BlackRock said it would match the federal government’s contributions to the accounts for employees’ children, seeding them with $1,000 each.

Those pledges follow the Dells’ announcement in early December of a $6.25 billion gift aimed at seeding accounts for 25 million American children age 10 and under who were too old to be eligible for the initial government funding. The donation targets kids living in ZIP Codes with median incomes below $150,000.

Each eligible account would receive $250 from the Dells. While that amount is unlikely to grow into a significant nest egg even over a couple decades, Michael Dell, founder of Dell Technologies Inc., said when he disclosed the gift that he hoped to inspire others to give as well. 

What will beneficiaries be able to do with their money? 

Trump accounts can’t be touched until age 18. At that point, they’re essentially treated like traditional individual retirement accounts. As with IRAs, money can be withdrawn early for certain qualified expenses, including higher education, up to $10,000 toward first-time home purchases and $5,000 per child for birth or adoption expenses. Other distributions trigger a 10% penalty.

What are the tax advantages of Trump accounts?  

The accounts grow tax-free, and wouldn’t be taxed until money is withdrawn. Those taxes are complicated, and the US Treasury hasn’t yet issued rules on how exactly they will work. The law says recipients don’t pay taxes on any post-tax contributions to their accounts, such as those from parents and relatives. But any gains or tax-free contributions from government, philanthropists or employers will be taxed like ordinary income upon withdrawal. On top of that, beneficiaries would also face the 10% IRA withdrawal penalty if money is used for non-qualifying expenses. 

What changed about the proposal before it became law in July? 

Lawmakers tweaked the Trump accounts so that distributions will be taxed as ordinary income. Early versions of the bill said distributions would be taxed at long-term capital gains rates, which are much lower than those on ordinary income. The accounts also were changed so that they follow IRA withdrawal rules, meaning a recipient’s small business startup costs no longer qualify for penalty-free distributions.

How would Trump accounts compare with 529 college savings plans?

Trump accounts have far fewer tax benefits than 529 college savings plans, which also have far higher contribution limits. 

With a 529 plan, withdrawals are tax-free for qualified educational expenses, and contributions are often eligible for state income tax deductions. Trump account holders would still pay taxes on withdrawals. 

How much would the plan cost the federal government?  

The Trump accounts program will cost about $15 billion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a tiny fraction of the overall tax and spending package approved in July.

Where did the idea come from? What do supporters and skeptics say?

An idea for government-funded “baby bonds” was first proposed by economist Darrick Hamilton, a professor at the New School for Social Research in New York, as a way to help poor Americans build assets and narrow the racial wealth gap. Several states, including Connecticut, have set up baby bond programs or are in the process of doing so. Hamilton has been skeptical of Trump accounts, calling them an idea to “address wealth inequality on the cheap.” 

One impetus for the overall approach appears to have come from Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, who along with economist Robert Shapiro last year began promoting the idea of accounts seeded with $1,000 for newborns. It’s a “simple solution to help people be connected to financial markets so everybody in the country shares in the wealth,” Hassett said at a presentation to the Aspen Institute in 2024.

Greg Leiserson, an economist who served in the Biden and Obama administrations, warned “tax-preferred accounts primarily benefit families that already have spare time and money, not the families that need the most help.”



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Ghislaine Maxwell asks judge to set her free, citing ‘substantial new evidence’ of spoiled trial

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Jeffrey Epstein’s former girlfriend and longtime associate Ghislaine Maxwell asked a federal judge on Wednesday to set aside her sex trafficking conviction and free her from a 20-year prison sentence, saying “substantial new evidence” has emerged proving that constitutional violations spoiled her trial.

Maxwell maintained in a habeas petition she has promised to file since August that information that would have resulted in her exoneration at her 2021 trial was withheld and false testimony was presented to the jury.

She said the cumulative effect of the constitutional violations resulted in a “complete miscarriage of justice.”

A habeas petition (or writ of habeas corpus petition) is a legal request for a court to review the legality of someone’s detention, demanding that the custodian (like a prison official) bring the prisoner before a judge to justify the imprisonment, serving as a fundamental safeguard against unlawful confinement and arbitrary detention by ensuring due process. Filed by or on behalf of someone in custody, it challenges constitutional violations, such as ineffective legal counsel or unfair trials, and seeks release or other relief, often as a last resort after appeals are exhausted.

“Since the conclusion of her trial, substantial new evidence has emerged from related civil actions, Government disclosures, investigative reports, and documents demonstrating constitutional violations that undermined the fairness of her proceeding,” the filing in Manhattan federal court said. “In the light of the full evidentiary record, no reasonable juror would have convicted her.”

The filing came just two days before records in her case were scheduled to be released publicly as a result of President Donald Trump’s signing of the Epstein Files Transparency Act. The law, signed after months of public and political pressure, requires the Justice Department to provide the public with Epstein-related records by Dec. 19.

Forced to act by the new transparency law, the Justice Department has said it plans to release 18 categories of investigative materials gathered in the massive sex trafficking probe, including search warrants, financial records, notes from interviews with victims, and data from electronic devices.

Epstein, a millionaire financier, was arrested in July 2019 on sex trafficking charges. A month later, he was found dead in his cell at a New York federal jail and the death was ruled a suicide. Maxwell, a British socialite, was arrested a year later and was convicted of sex trafficking in December 2021. She was interviewed by the Justice Department’s second-in-command in July and was soon afterward moved from a federal prison in Florida to a prison camp in Texas.

After the Justice Department asked a New York federal judge to permit grand jury and discovery materials gathered prior to her trial to be released publicly, attorney David Markus wrote on her behalf that while Maxwell now “does not take a position” on unsealing documents from her case, doing so “would create undue prejudice so severe that it would foreclose the possibility of a fair retrial” if her habeas petition succeeds.

The records, Markus said, “contain untested and unproven allegations.”

Last week, Judge Paul A. Engelmayer in Manhattan granted the Justice Department’s request to publicly release the materials.

On Wednesday, U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said during a news conference on another topic that he would follow the law and the judge’s orders pertaining to the records.

Engelmayer, who along with other judges had previously rejected Justice Department unsealing requests before the transparency law was passed, said the materials “do not identify any person other than Epstein and Maxwell as having had sexual contact with a minor.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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