Business
OpenAI board chair doubles down on CEO Sam Altman’s belief we’re in an AI bubble: ‘A lot of people will lose a lot of money’
Published
3 months agoon
By
Jace Porter
OpenAI chairman Bret Taylor is not naive to the potentially mammoth consequences of a tech bubble, but he said the prospect isn’t without its benefits. The former Facebook CTO and current CEO of AI business platform Sierra shares the opinion of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that we’re in an AI bubble—but that’s not entirely a bad thing.
“It is both true that AI will transform the economy, and I think it will, like the internet, create huge amounts of economic value in the future,” Taylor said in the most recent episode of The Verge’s “Decoder” podcast. “I think we’re also in a bubble, and a lot of people will lose a lot of money. I think both are absolutely true at the same time, and there’s a lot of historical precedent for both of those things being true at the same time.”
Altman echoed Taylor’s sentiments last month, warning of big winners and big losers from an AI hype cycle.
“Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money,” Altman said during a dinner for journalists, The Verge reported. “We don’t know who. And a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money.”
Taylor and Altman join the chorus of industry giants and economists warning about how the astronomical rise of AI has led investors to overhype companies, inflating them beyond their actual worth—with significant financial consequences. Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk warned in July that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are more overvalued today than they were during the dotcom era 25 years ago. Alibaba’s chair Joseph Tsai and C3.ai CEO Tom Siebel have both warned in the last year that we’re entering an AI bubble.
The fallout of the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 was weighty: In March, the NASDAQ rose to its peak of 5,048 units, only to plummet to 1,139.90 units in October, a 77% plummet. The downturn, by the time it ended in 2002, had wiped out about $5 trillion in market capitalizations.
Bubble beneficiaries
According to Taylor, it’s worth paying attention to the big winners of the dotcom era when drawing conclusions about the impact of a bubble burst and what it would mean for the tech industry.
“There’s a lot of parallels to the internet bubble,” he said.
Looking at the successful companies that emerged from the early dotcom era is evidence that just because scores of internet companies were overhyped doesn’t mean the hype wasn’t justified for others, according to Taylor. The dotcom bust had famous flops such as Pets.com, a pet-supplies retailer that went belly-up prioritizing rapid growth, and Webvan, a grocery-delivery company that filed for bankruptcy in July 2001—but it also produced Amazon and Google, which have growth to be some of the world’s largest companies, Taylor pointed out. Amazon’s share price has grown nearly 15,000% since October 2000, and Google, which was not a publicly traded company in 2000, has similarly grown, reaching a more than $2.9 trillion market cap.
Moreover, even failed companies like Webvan made their mark on the tech work, Taylor said, paving the way for companies like Instacart and DoorDash to build upon the retail delivery companies of the turn of the century.
“You start to look and you say, ‘Actually, if you look at the GDP of the world, how much has actually been created or influenced by the existence of the internet?’ One could argue that all the people in 1999 were kind of right,” he said. “It was as impactful on pretty much every measure.”
Taylor indicated there will be winners of the AI boom, but it’s difficult to say what these wins will look like. He pointed to fiber companies, many of which went under as a result of the dotcom bust, but not before making their mark on improving the speed of data. Most famously, Global Crossing, which had a value of $55 billion in its heyday, went bankrupt in 2002 after failing to find customers to make it profitable.
“Because of the amount of economic opportunity, you just end up with a ton of investors, and some companies will fail and some will succeed,” Taylor said. “If you look at the people who built out fiber in the early days of the internet, a lot of them went bankrupt, but that fiber ended up getting used, just by the next person or the private equity firm or whatever entity bought it.”
Taylor did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
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Business
Inside tractor maker CNH’s push to bring more artificial intelligence to the farm
Published
14 minutes agoon
December 10, 2025By
Jace Porter
Jay Schroeder, the chief technology officer of CNH, was recently in Brazil, discussing artificial intelligence use cases to support the company’s research and development team. The agricultural equipment maker has put a lot of effort into governance and assessing certified tools from vendors, but the actual application of the technology within its own research division remains very nascent.
What has held Schroeder back, he says, are lingering concerns about the return on investment of AI. He cites an MIT study published over the summer that found that 95% of AI pilots fail.
“It’s great that we’ve got people engaged in AI,” says Schroeder, who quickly pivots to ask rhetorically, “How do we measure success? What are the things that we can measure to say, ‘This has been a worthwhile investment for CNH?’”
Schroeder, a three-decade veteran of CNH who began his career as an engineer focused on mid-range tractor transmission design, isn’t completely cautious when it comes to leveraging AI. The tech has been deployed across broad corners of the business including software development, to assist with drafting contracts, producing R&D database queries, and content management.
CNH has scored some wins that Schroeder has been able to track. The company is leaning on AI to assist software engineers who are focused on precision agricultural technology and the FieldOps farm management systems, where AI, machine learning, and sensors are applied to digitally enhance farming. Early data has shown that these engineers are reducing the time needed for documentation by 60%, giving them more time to write new code.
Another project underway involves AI-enabled spraying systems that use cameras and machine learning to detect the difference between weeds and planted crops when applying chemicals in the field. Farmers who use AI in this manner can reduce the amount of herbicides they use by 80%.
Other applications have more nebulous gains. CNH’s engineers participated in a pilot program where they were able to use AI to pull field reports from dispersed datasets across the company. Within three minutes, this generative AI tool can produce a report that includes details about a design project, CNH’s standards for developing the gear, field test reports, and other key information.
“Can you measure that?” asks Schroeder. He says that many hours are being saved from the work that would have gone into developing one of those reports manually in the past. But putting an exact figure on the time savings is more difficult.
Investments in AI and other emerging technologies, like autonomous robots, have become central to the pitch made by CNH and other tractor suppliers as farmers face intense cost pressures and feelthe dire effects of climate change. In the United Kingdom, where the Dutch-incorporated CNH has its headquarters and main operations, heat and drought led to around $1 billion in lost production this year. Three of the five worst harvests in the history of the U.K. have occurred since 2020, according to the figures from the U.K.-based nonprofit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
Only 3% of the world’s land is suitable for crops, but the global population is growing by 35 million each year, according to CNH. Farmers have to squeeze out more efficiencies in the field to meet that rising demand.
“The biggest impact on a farmer’s profitability is the yield, besides commodity prices, obviously,” says Gerrit Marx, CEO of CNH, which ranks No. 217 on the Fortune 500 Europe. “In the end, we want to help the farmer make better decisions.”
Farm-equipment suppliers have been squeezed by the impact of tariffs, which has led to weakening demand for their expensive tractors, combines, and harvesters. Last month, CNH reported weaker year-over-year sales for the company’s third quarter, as shipments slowed to dealers that have been working their way through excess inventories. But even as it faces those headwinds, CNH has vowed to invest nearly $5 billion over five years into its U.S. manufacturing and R&D facilities.
“The solutions we’re developing for AG [agriculture] are really helping to feed the world,” says Schroeder. “I grew up on a family farm…so for me, it’s personal.”
CNH’s primary technology partner is Microsoft, and the company has been in active conversations with the tech giant to deploy some AI tools to support precision-technology product development. Already, all CNH employees have access to the free, web-based version of Microsoft Copilot, and about 1,000 of the “AI power users” have access to the premium license.
The company’s precision agricultural tech AI projects, Schroeder says, are still “mostly in the pilot phase. We have a long hill to climb.”
One AI tool that CNH launched externally at the beginning of 2025 is the “AI Tech Assistant,” which was deployed to hundreds of agricultural and construction dealer groups to field questions about any issues for CNH-branded machinery and propose a repair plan.
Marx says that every member of CNH’s global leadership team is running at least one generative or agentic AI pilot program within their respective fields.
He says CNH is looking for tangible benefits to business outcomes. One area of increased focus is the application of generative AI to produce conversational, real-time insights that can connect the dots between the seeds, fertilizers, and equipment a farmer has at their disposal, as well as current and near-future weather patterns, to help improve crop management and planning.
“Tomorrow, the agronomist will become a set of agentic AIs that help the farmer to make bigger decisions better,” says Marx.
John Kell
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NEWS PACKETS
The emerging federal-versus-state battle to regulate AI. In the wake of around 100 different laws adopted by 38 states during this year’s legislative session, President Trump this week moved to issue an executive order that would aim to prevent state’s from passing laws restricting AI. Over-regulating AI, Trump and his allies believe, will make it harder for the U.S. to compete with China. But state governors have expressed fears about the impact of AI—on hiring and employment, consumer protection, fraud, and other risks—motivating them to act in absence of federal regulations.
Nvidia wins Trump’s blessing to sell AI chips in China. On Tuesday, Trump announced that he had granted Nvidia permission to sell the company’s H200 AI chip to China, giving the AI chip maker an opportunity to chase billions in orders from the market that would purportedly only go to “approved customers.” But, the Financial Timesreported that China would limit access to H200 chips and that buyers would likely need to go through an approval process that would require them to explain why domestic providers are unable to meet their needs.
Nike cuts CTO role; Deere CIO retires. Athletic-gear giant Nike has eliminated two C-suite roles, including the CTO position, as CEO Elliott Hill aims to eliminate “layers” to accelerate a turnaround plan. CTO Muge Dogan is departing after just two years in the role. She previously spent more than 16 years at Amazon. Meanwhile, Deere & Co. announced that CIO Raj Kalathur would retire in January after 28 years at the agricultural machinery manufacturer. Kalathur has served as CIO since 2019 and oversaw Deere’s IT function and John Deere Financial, the financial-services provider for dealers and customers that buy the company’s equipment. Deere didn’t provide further details on who would succeed Kalathur.
IBM scoops up Confluent for $11 billion. Shares of data-streaming platform Confluent jumped after the company agreed to a $31-per-share cash takeover offer from IBM. It’s one of the tech giant’s largest takeovers ever in a deal that will bolster its AI offerings. IBM says that it expects that global data demand will more than double by 2028 and asserts that the IBM-Confluent combination will enable better and faster deployment of generative and agentic AI. As Bloomberg reports, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna has led efforts to reposition the company’s business around selling AI-related services to clients and buying up software companies. Those efforts appear to be paying off, with around 80% of IBM’s 300 clients who buy AI products being new over the past two quarters, IBM told the Wall Street Journal when it reported earnings in October.
New York Times, Chicago Tribune sue Perplexity. The New York Times and the Chicago Tribune have sued Perplexity, saying the AI startup is copying and distributing their exclusive content. This adds to a growing list of more than 40 court cases in the U.S. in which copyright holders have sued AI companies, the Times reports. The Times was also in court last week for its ongoing litigation with OpenAI, with the latter suffering a legal blow after a federal judge ruled that the ChatGPT maker must produce millions of anonymized chat logs from its users in a copyright case that stems from a late 2023 lawsuit by the news organization.
ADOPTION CURVE
EY says that AI-driven gains are being pumped into reinvestment, not job cuts. While headlines continue to swirl around AI’s impact on jobs—including the recent report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that AI has been responsible for nearly 55,000 job layoffs in 2025—consulting giant EY is making the case that savings in AI are far more likely to be poured back into the business. Nearly all business leaders (96%) report AI-driven gains in productivity, but they are far more focused on reinvesting than eliminating jobs.
When asked what they’ve done with the dollars saved from AI, these leaders report spending to support existing AI capabilities (47%), develop new AI capabilities (42%), strengthen cybersecurity (41%), invest in R&D (39%), and upskilling and reskilling employees (38%), according to consulting giant EY’s fourth AI Pulse Survey. Only 17% report those gains led to reduced headcount.
“We see that a lot of companies are coming back with positive returns and are getting even more bullish in what their investment theses are,” Dan Diasio, EY global consulting AI leader, tells Fortune. “More of those executives are putting more capital towards AI, many of them doubling what their investments were over the course of the next 12 months.”
The EY survey data aligns with Diasio’s thinking. About 27% of respondents currently commits a quarter or more of their IT budget to AI, but that share of respondents is projected to nearly double to 52% in 2026. The group that spends half or more of their IT budget on AI is expected to quintuple, to 19% next year from just 3% today.
Courtesy of EY
JOBS RADAR
Hiring:
– USPTO is seeking a CIO, based in Alexandria, Virginia. Posted salary range: $208.4K-$225.7K/year.
– Signal Mutual is seeking a VP, head of IT, based in Norwalk, Connecticut. Posted salary range: $180K-$220K/year.
– Aritzia is seeking a head of cloud and infrastructure, based in Seattle. Posted salary range: $200K-$400K/year.
– Image Solutions is seeking a director of IT, based in Long Beach, California. Posted salary range: $180K-$200K/year.
Hired:
– Nationwideannounced that Michael Carrel will serve as CTO, elevated to the role after more than 30 years of experience at the insurance company. Most recently, Carrel served as SVP and CTO for Nationwide Financial, the financial services arm of the company. Carrel succeeds Jim Fowler, who is departing to join telecom company Lumen Technologies.
– Lumen Technologiesnamed Fowler as chief technology and product officer, effective January 5. Fowler will succeed Dave Ward, who is departing to assume the role of president and chief architect at software giant Salesforce. Fowler has served on Lumen’s board of directors since 2023 and will step down, effective immediately, in connection with his new role. He most recently served as CTO at Nationwide since 2018.
– Condé Nastappointed Vasanth Williams as chief product and technology officer, assuming the role this week and joining the media company’s executive leadership team. Most recently, Williams served as chief product officer and EVP of engineering at Major League Baseball. He also held technology roles at Amazon, Microsoft, and Yodle.
– 1-800-Flowers.com appointed Alexander Zelikovsky as CIO, leading IT applications and platforms, data architecture, data management, cybersecurity, and business intelligence. Prior to joining the online floral and gifts retailer, Zelikovsky most recently served as CIO at shipping and mailing company Pitney Bowes. He also held technology leadership roles at Huggies and Kleenex manufacturer Kimberly-Clark.
– Owens Corning elevated CIO Annie Baymiller, adding the EVP title, a promotion the building materials manufacturer said reinforces a recent company commitment to accelerate the usage of digital tools and analytics. Baymiller has served as the company’s CIO since 2023 and initially joined Owens Corning in 2006. She will continue to report directly to CEO Brian Chambers.
– Westfield appointed Lloyd Scholz as enterprise CIO, joining the property and casualty insurance company after most recently serving as senior managing director and CTO at insurance provider Markel. Prior to Markel, Scholz spent 16 years at credit-card giant Capital One in leadership roles focused on data engineering, analytics platforms, cloud strategy, and enterprise technology.
– DXC Technology promoted Russell Jukes to serve as chief digital information officer, an expanded role to oversee the IT services and consulting company’s end-to-end digital and AI agenda. Jukes has worked for DXC since 2017, when the company was formed through the merger of Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s enterprise services business division and Computer Sciences Corporation.
Business
Goldman Sachs CFO on the company’s AI reboot, talent, and growth
Published
44 minutes agoon
December 10, 2025By
Jace Porter
Good morning. Goldman Sachs is betting big on using AI to fundamentally rethink how the company operates.
At the Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Services Conference on Tuesday, CFO Denis Coleman discussed the company’s recently announced OneGS 3.0 initiative—a multiyear overhaul of its OneGS program aimed at integrating AI throughout the bank’s operating model to reduce complexity and boost productivity. The effort is a top priority and will involve every division and function across the company, from business lines to control functions to engineering, Coleman said. “At its core, it’s an effort to drive more scale and more growth,” he said.
Goldman Sachs (No. 32 on the Fortune 500) is emphasizing the quality, availability, accuracy, and timeliness of data that underpins all of its AI initiatives, Coleman noted. That focus includes ensuring the company invests properly in shared platforms that span the organization.
“We’re asking all of our people to rethink the human processes they go through,” Coleman said. “And then we’re making investments in AI and agentic AI to accelerate change across these processes and platforms.”
They have identified six discrete workstreams, created dedicated teams, and tasked them with reviewing key activities, analyzing pain points, and identifying opportunities for efficiency, he said. Each group will then present formal investment cases for leadership review.
“We’ll fund some of those investments and hold teams accountable for the productivity outcomes that follow,” Coleman said. “This is a fundamental rethinking of how we expect our people to operate at Goldman Sachs.”
He added, “We don’t want to simply add more manual processes to drive growth. We need to convert some of that effort into digitized and automated systems—and rethink how those engines work.” Coleman expressed optimism that the OneGS 3.0 strategy will help fuel the firm’s continued growth.
‘The bar for talent remains high’
During the discussion, Coleman also addressed the talent environment, a key concern for many CFOs. “We continue to see incredible demands for people who want to come and work at Goldman Sachs, more than a million people asking to move in laterally to the firm,” Coleman said. “We can accommodate far less than 1%, so we’re still in a position to be extremely selective on the people that we hire.”
Goldman Sachs reduced headcount earlier in 2025 as part of its annual performance review process, which typically targets the lowest 3% to 5% of performers. The company moved that process up to the second quarter from its usual September timing. Despite those cuts, Goldman still expects a net increase in headcount by the end of 2025, supported by hiring in key growth areas.
“The bar for talent remains very high,” Coleman said. “We continue to operate as a pay-for-performance organization. Our goal is to pay competitively—especially for our very best people in each domain—and we are laser-focused on that.”
He added, “As long as markets stay buoyant and the outlook remains optimistic, maintaining that focus will be critical.”
Regarding the U.S. economic outlook, Coleman described it as “resilient and conducive to business.” He added, “We obviously have a Fed decision coming up. Our economists expect a 25-basis-point cut, likely followed by a pause at the beginning of 2026, and then possibly two more cuts.” Coleman also noted that 2025 is shaping up to be the second-biggest year in history for announced mergers and acquisitions industrywide.
SherylEstrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com
Leaderboard
Fortune 500 Power Moves
Kathryn A. Mikells, senior vice president and chief financial officer of Exxon Mobil (No. 8), will retire effective Feb. 1, 2026. Mikells, who has undergone several procedures to address a debilitating but non-life-threatening health issue, is stepping down to focus on her recovery, according to an SEC filing.
On Dec. 8, ExxonMobil named Neil A. Hansen, 51, as her successor. Hansen has served as president of Exxon Mobil Global Business Solutions since May 2025 and previously held senior roles in Energy Products, Europe, Africa and Middle East Fuels, and in the company’s controllers, audit, treasury, and investor relations departments, including vice president of investor relations and corporate secretary.
Like other executive officers of the corporation, Hansen will not have an employment contract. His annual salary will be $1.02 million, and he remains eligible for performance-based bonuses and long-term equity incentives.
Every Friday morning, the weekly Fortune 500 Power Moves column tracks Fortune 500 company C-suite shifts—see the most recent edition.
More notable moves
Jeff Chesnut was appointed CFO of Conestoga Energy, a provider of low-carbon intensity, effective immediately. With over 25 years of experience in strategic planning, capital markets, and finance, Chesnut will play a pivotal role in executing Conestoga’s growth strategy. Prior to joining Conestoga, Chesnut served as SVP of treasury, investor relations and corporate development at Upbound Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: UPBD). Before that, he served as EVP and CFO at publicly listed Loyalty Ventures Inc., which was a spinoff from publicly listed Alliance Data Systems, Inc. (now Bread Financial), where he spent over a decade.
James Robert “Rob” Foster was promoted to SVP of finance and CFO of ATI Inc. (NYSE: ATI), effective Jan. 1. Foster succeeds Don Newman, who will serve as strategic advisor to the CEO beginning Jan. 1. As previously announced, Newman will retire on March 1, 2026, and serve in an advisory capacity. Foster, a longtime ATI leader, most recently served as president of ATI’s specialty alloys and components business. He previously served as ATI’s VP of finance, supply chain and capital projects, overseeing the company’s global finance organization, capital deployment processes, and enterprise supply chain performance. Earlier, he led finance for both ATI’s operating segments and the forged products business.
Big Deal
The 11th annual Women in the Workplace report, released by McKinsey & Company and LeanIn.Org, examines the state of women in corporate America and Canada. This year, only half of companies are prioritizing women’s career advancement—a continuation of a multiyear decline in commitment to gender diversity. For the first time, women are less interested than men in being promoted.
One of the key findings is that sponsorship matters. “Women overall are less likely than men to have a sponsor—and entry-level women stand out for receiving far less sponsorship than any other group of women or men,” according to the report. “Even when entry-level women do have a sponsor, they’re promoted at a lower rate than men. Sponsors have a substantial impact on career outcomes: in the past two years, employees with sponsors have been promoted at nearly twice the rate of those without.”
Going deeper
Overheard
“I think in the next five years, you’re going to see large sections of factory work replaced by robots—and part of the reason for that is that these physical AI robots can be reprogrammed into different tasks.”
—Arm CEO Rene Haas said at Fortune Brainstorm AI in San Francisco on Monday.
Business
If the Fed cuts interest rates today it may be the last round of cheaper money until June 2026
Published
1 hour agoon
December 10, 2025By
Jace Porter
Enjoy your Fed interest rate cut today—it may be the last one for a while. There is a 90% certainty that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will announce a 0.25% cut to the base rate this afternoon, bringing it down to the 3.5% level, according to speculators on the CME FedWatch Fed funds futures index. But after that, the FedWatch index is indicating no certainty for any further cuts in 2026.
Today’s cut is priced in at level of certainty approaching 90%. But here are what the levels of certainty for keeping the rate at 3.5% look like for 2026, per FedWatch:
- January: 72.2%
- March: 55.8%
- April: 47.6%
Only in June does a plurality—41.9%—emerge for a further cut to 3.25%.
Analysts are all over the place in their guesses about how many further rounds of cheaper money the Fed will deliver next year, and with good reason: President Trump is set to replace Powell with a new Fed chair in May.
“We see the Fed cutting rates twice in 2026, with moves in March and in June,” ING’s James Knightley et alargued earlier this month. Plus, “the potential for a more dovish FOMC tilts the risks toward additional rate cuts later in the year.”
“But does this matter, given that we know the Federal Reserve’s structure is changing?” Knightley wrote.
At Deutsche Bank, the forecast is “one further 25bp cut in each of 2026 and 2027.”
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ guess is for three cuts, “We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.”
The presumed favorite candidate for the new Fed chair is Kevin Hassett, widely regarded as a “dove” who will follow Trump’s preference for lower rates regardless of rising inflation. But there are three others in the running: Fed governors Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller and Michelle, Bowman, and BlackRock Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income Rick Rieder.
It’s not certain if the new appointee will tip the Federal Open Markets Comittee into a more dovish position (favoring more cuts) or whether the Fed’s institutional commitment to apolitical economics will prevail, which would imply a slower schedule of cuts or perhaps—if inflation continues to rise—none at all.
ING’s Knightley noted that by the end of 2026 it is possible that “five of the seven members of the Board of Governors are Trump appointees.” The Fed is about to become much more unpredictable, in other words.
Stock markets are largely in a holding pattern today as investors wait for the rate decision. It will be Powell’s commentary— and whether he says or doesn’t say certain words—that move markets this afternoon. S&P 500 futures were flat this morning prior to the open after the index closed flat yesterday.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
- S&P 500 futures were flat this morning. The last session closed down marginally 0.09%.
- STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.12% in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.29% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.1%.
- China’s CSI 300 was down 0.14%.
- The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.21%.
- India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.32%.
- Bitcoin was at $92K.
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Inside tractor maker CNH’s push to bring more artificial intelligence to the farm
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