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Last Call for 9.4.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

A Florida TaxWatch analysis suggests Florida missed out on a U.S. House seat after the last census — and maybe two. But any effort to correct that could impact 13 other states, depending on how the federal government treats noncitizens in a new count.

The Tallahassee-based fiscal watchdog released its latest report, “Census Briefing: Apportionment changes amid policy proposals,” which evaluates three different methods by which the federal government could revisit its 2020 census data.

The report focuses on different outlooks one can take when revisiting the population count in the country conducted five years ago, rather than one that a snap census might produce. Whether trying to correct an undercount in the state or by changing standards to only count legal residents or legal citizens, the result for Florida would be the same: an increase in political influence from the 2021 reapportionment of congressional votes.

“During the 2020 census, an estimated 750,000 Floridians failed to respond to their census survey, resulting in a statistically significant undercount of 3.48%. This undercount cost the State of Florida at least one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and at least one additional vote in the Electoral College, and billions of dollars’ worth of grant funding throughout the decade,” said Florida TaxWatch President Dominic Calabro.

The report came out as Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida legislative leaders move toward a mid-decade redistricting similar to that of other states, a process that would be significantly impacted if Florida had more than the 28 U.S. House districts currently assembled in its map. But sources closely following the redistricting process wonder whether the process would result in the gains desired by Florida Republicans.

Florida TaxWatch has already explored one scenario. A July report showed that inaccuracies in the 2020 census — most because of an undercounting of people in the state — resulted in Florida, Texas and Tennessee all being shorted one congressional seat, while Colorado, Minnesota and Rhode Island all erroneously obtained a seat.

Of note, the three wronged states, according to that analysis, were those President Donald Trump carried in the 2024 Presidential Election. All three states that gained from the undercount went for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

—“RFK Jr.’s victory lap” via Tom Bartlett of The Atlantic

—“Why I HATE Congressional hearings (and yes, this is about RFK Jr.)” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”Donald Trump’s lawyers just inadvertently admitted that his tariffs are illegal” via Ian Millhiser of Vox

—”The Supreme Court is just another political football now” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—“Richard Corcoran’s compelling case” via Matt Walsh of Your Observer

—”HHS boosts Florida opposition to vax mandates in letter to health providers” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”How Ben Franklin’s French diplomacy raised money — and saved the American Revolution” via Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal

—“NFL RedZone host Scott Hanson confirms broadcast will feature commercials this season” via Amos Morale III and Richard Deitsch of The Athletic

—”The best quarterbacks of all time” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

—”The NFL’s most valuable teams 2025” via Justin Teitelbaum and Brett Knight of Forbes

Quote of the Day

“With Florida offering some of the most popular vacation destinations in the nation, the ramifications from this decision could be catastrophic.”

Ashley Lyerly of the American Lung Association, on Florida’s push to end all vaccine mandates.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Playing catch-up on mid-decade redistricting? Sip on an Over and Under while you read through Florida TaxWatch’s comprehensive Census Briefing.

Florida’s job market is serving up Hot Streaks after capping off its seventh week of declining new unemployment filings.

Health organizations and Democrats aren’t keen on the state’s most recent anti-vaccine moves, but there’s no rule yet against ordering them Jabs & Dabs.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators face USF in Gainesville on Saturday

The Florida Gators host USF on Saturday in one of three matchups of teams from the Sunshine State (4:15 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

Florida, ranked #13 in this week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll, opened the season with a 55-0 victory over Long Island University. Gators’ quarterback DJ Lagway threw three touchdowns, and Jadan Baugh ran for 104 yards and a touchdown in the win.

USF delivered one of the most impressive performances of the early season when it beat Boise State 34-7 to open the season. It was the Bulls’ first win over a ranked team since 2016.

The other games involving a pair of Florida schools this weekend include:

— Florida A&M at FAU (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+): FAU dropped the season opener 39-7 at Maryland. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw four interceptions in the loss. FAMU dropped a 10-9 loss to Howard in the Orange Blossom Classic at Hard Rock Stadium.

— Bethune Cookman at Miami (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+, ACC Network): The fifth-ranked Hurricanes opened the season with a 27-24 victory over Notre Dame to open the season. Former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck tossed a pair of touchdowns and threw for 205 yards in the victory. Bethune-Cookman dropped a 42-9 loss to FIU in the season opener.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Carlos G. Smith files bill to allow medical pot patients to grow their own plants

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Home cultivation of marijuana plants could be legal under certain conditions.

Medical marijuana patients may not have to go to the dispensary for their medicine if new legislation in the Senate passes.

Sen. Carlos G. Smith’s SB 776 would permit patients aged 21 and older to grow up to six pot plants.

They could use the homegrown product, but just like the dispensary weed, they would not be able to re-sell.

Medical marijuana treatment centers would be the only acceptable sourcing for plants and seeds, a move that would protect the cannabis’ custody.

Those growing the plants would be obliged to keep them secured from “unauthorized persons.”

Chances this becomes law may be slight.

A House companion for the legislation has yet to be filed. And legislators have demonstrated little appetite for homegrow in the past.



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Rolando Escalona aims to deny Frank Carollo a return to the Miami Commission

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Early voting is now underway in Miami for a Dec. 9 runoff that will decide whether political newcomer Rolando Escalona can block former Commissioner Frank Carollo from reclaiming the District 3 seat long held by the Carollo family.

The contest has already been marked by unusual turbulence: both candidates faced eligibility challenges that threatened — but ultimately failed — to knock them off the ballot.

Escalona survived a dramatic residency challenge in October after a rival candidate accused him of faking his address. A Miami-Dade Judge rejected the claim following a detailed, three-hour trial that examined everything from his lease records to his Amazon orders.

After the Nov. 4 General Election — when Carollo took about 38% of the vote and Escalona took 17% to outpace six other candidates — Carollo cleared his own legal hurdle when another Judge ruled he could remain in the race despite the city’s new lifetime term limits that, according to three residents who sued, should have barred him from running again.

Those rulings leave voters with a stark choice in District 3, which spans Little Havana, East Shenandoah, West Brickell and parts of Silver Bluff and the Roads.

The runoff pits a self-described political outsider against a veteran official with deep institutional experience and marks a last chance to extend the Carollo dynasty to a twentieth straight year on the dais or block that potentiality.

Escalona, 34, insists voters are ready to move on from the chaos and litigation that have surrounded outgoing Commissioner Joe Carollo, whose tenure included a $63.5 million judgment against him for violating the First Amendment rights of local business owners and the cringe-inducing firing of a Miami Police Chief, among other controversies.

A former busboy who rose through the hospitality industry to manage high-profile Brickell restaurant Sexy Fish while also holding a real estate broker’s license, Escalona is running on a promise to bring transparency, better basic services, lower taxes for seniors and improved permitting systems to the city.

He wants to improve public safety, support economic development, enhance communities, provide more affordable housing, lower taxes and advocate for better fiscal responsibility in government.

He told the Miami Herald that if elected, he’d fight to restore public trust by addressing public corruption while re-engaging residents who feel unheard by current officials.

Carollo, 55, a CPA who served two terms on the dais from 2009 to 2017, has argued that the district needs an experienced leader. He’s pointed to his record balancing budgets and pledges a residents-first agenda focused on safer streets, cleaner neighborhoods and responsive government.

Carollo was the top fundraiser in the District 3 race this cycle, amassing about $501,000 between his campaign account and political committee, Residents First, and spending about $389,500 by the last reporting dates.

Escalona, meanwhile, reported raising close to $109,000 through his campaign account and spending all but 6,000 by Dec. 4.

The winner will secure a four-year term.



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Florida kicks off first black bear hunt in a decade, despite pushback

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For the first time in a decade, hunters armed with rifles and crossbows are fanning out across Florida’s swamps and flatwoods to legally hunt the Florida black bear, over the vocal opposition of critics.

The state-sanctioned hunt began Saturday, after drawing more than 160,000 applications for a far more limited number of hunting permits, including from opponents who are trying to reduce the number of bears killed in this year’s hunt, the state’s first since 2015.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission awarded 172 bear hunt permits by random lottery for this year’s season, allowing hunters to kill one bear each in areas where the population is deemed large enough. At least 43 of the permits went to opponents of the hunt who never intend to use them, according to the Florida chapter of the Sierra Club, which encouraged critics to apply in the hopes of saving bears.

The Florida black bear population is considered one of the state’s conservation success stories, having grown from just several hundred bears in the 1970s to an estimated more than 4,000 today.

The 172 people who were awarded a permit through a random lottery will be able to kill one bear each during the 2025 season, which runs from Dec. 6 to Dec. 28. The permits are specific to one of the state’s four designated bear hunting zones, each of which have a hunting quota set by state officials based on the bear population in each region.

In order to participate, hunters must hold a valid hunting license and a bear harvest permit, which costs $100 for residents and $300 for nonresidents, plus fees. Applications for the permits cost $5 each.

The regulated hunt will help incentivize maintaining healthy bear populations, and help fund the work that is needed, according to Mark Barton of the Florida chapter of Backcountry Hunters and Anglers, an advocacy group that supported the hunt.

Having an annual hunt will help guarantee funding to “keep moving conservation for bears forward,” Barton said.

According to state wildlife officials, the bear population has grown enough to support a regulated hunt and warrant population management. The state agency sees hunting as an effective tool that is used to manage wildlife populations around the world, and allows the state to monetize conservation efforts through permit and application fees.

“While we have enough suitable bear habitat to support our current bear population levels, if the four largest subpopulations continue to grow at current rates, we will not have enough habitat at some point in the future,” reads a bear hunting guide published by the state wildlife commission.

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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.



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