Connect with us

Business

Monetary policy is not about interest rates, it’s about the money supply

Published

on



The ongoing feud between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell centers on interest rates. This tells us more about the near-universal view of what constitutes monetary policy than it does about Trump or Powell. While Trump and Powell might quibble over the proper level for the Fed funds rate, they both think monetary policy is all about interest rates.

Trump and Powell aren’t alone. Today, central bankers organize monetary policy around the overnight interest rate set on reserves supplied by central banks. Indeed, nearly every central bank these days describes its stance on monetary policy in terms of its policy rate. It’s not surprising, therefore, that most bankers, market analysts, economists, and financial journalists also embrace the view that monetary policy is all about central banks’ policy rates. That’s why markets wait with bated breath before each central bank policy rate decision.

Why the obsession over interest rates? One reason hinges on the fact that for over the past 30 years or so, macroeconomic models are neo-Keynesian extensions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These put interest rates front and center. Armed with these models, economists and central bankers believe that monetary policy has its impact on the economy via changes in central banks’ policy rates.

But that’s not what monetarists, who embrace the quantity theory of money, tell us. Unlike the neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models that exclude money, the quantity theory of money states that national income or nominal GDP is primarily determined by the movements of broad money, not by changes in interest rates.

As it turns out, the data talk loudly and support the quantity theory of money. They do not support the neo-Keynesian models which are centered on changes in interest rates. Indeed, the correlations between changes in policy rates and changes in real and nominal economic activity are considerably worse than those between rates of change in the quantity of money and nominal GDP. Three recent major episodes support this conclusion.

The case of Japan

First, let’s consider the case of Japan between 1996 and 2019. Throughout this period, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) overnight policy rate lingered at negligible levels, averaging 0.125%. As a result, most economists concluded that monetary policy in Japan was very “easy”. But monetarists, who focused on Japan’s anemic broad money (M2) growth of only 2.8% per year, concluded that monetary policy was “tight”. Which camp was right?

Japan’s inflation averaged a de minimis 0.2% per year in the 1996-2019 period. It is clear that the monetarists were correct. By focusing on the BOJ’s overnight policy rate and by ignoring the money supply, most mainstream economists completely misdiagnosed the tenor of Japan’s monetary policy.

The U.S. between 2010 and 2019

Second, let’s consider the U.S. between 2010 and 2019. During most of this decade, the Fed funds rate was held down at 0.25%. In addition, the Fed engaged in three episodes of quantitative easing (QE). Many concluded that this amounted to very “easy” monetary conditions. They warned that inflation would result. In fact, broad money growth (M2) remained low and stable at 5.8% per year. In consequence, inflation also remained low, averaging just 1.8% per year between 2010 and 2019. As was the case with Japan, interest rates turned out to be a highly misleading indicator of the stance of monetary policy. The growth in the money supply was a much better guide to economic activity and inflation than the course of the Fed funds rate.

The case of the pandemic

Third, let’s once again consider the U.S.

This time, we will examine the COVID pandemic period (2020-2024). Initially, interest rates were reduced to 0.25%, where they stayed between March 2020 and March 2022. In addition, the Fed conducted large-scale QE purchases. Because this policy mix had not caused inflation in the 2010-2019 period, the consensus of Keynesian economists expected the same results as before. By ignoring money growth, they predicted in 2020 and early 2021 that inflation would remain low. Indeed, some Keynesians predicted outright deflation. The deflationists argued that lockdowns were resulting in “weak aggregate supply,” that slow income growth was producing “weak aggregate demand,” and that unemployment, which reached 14.8% in April 2020, would remain elevated.

By contrast, monetary economists focused on the explosion of broad money (M2) growth, which averaged 17.3% per year between March 2020 and March 2022. In consequence, they predicted, as early as April 2020, that there would be a substantial inflation.

As it turned out, the monetarists were right once again. From spring 2021, inflation surged, with the U.S. CPI peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, and averaging 7.0% year-on-year between April 2021 and December 2022.

Why are the monetarists consistently correct?

In each of the major cases we present, the quantity theory of money generated the correct forecast, while the Keynesian theories, which are based on interest rates, resulted in misleading signals. Why?

The reason why central bank policy rates are a misguided mechanism for steering and forecasting the course of the economy is because interest rates are, in large part, symptoms of past money growth, not necessarily drivers of future money growth. Changes in the quantity of money, on the other hand, directly fuel spending, and therefore correctly signal the direction of spending and inflation.

When the quantity of money is increased substantially and for a sustained period, one of the first effects is that interest rates fall. But after six to nine months, business and consumer spending accelerate, and the demand for credit starts to increase. As a result, interest rates are pushed up. If the acceleration of money growth continues, inflation follows – typically after a year or so – and interest rates rise even further.

So, the first effect of faster money growth is lower interest rates, but this is only a temporary effect. The second and more permanent effect is higher interest rates. This is what happened in the U.S. during the 2020-2024 period.

Conversely, the first and temporary effect of slower money growth is higher interest rates. The second and more permanent effect is lower interest rates. This is what occurred in Japan between the mid-1990s and 2019.

By ignoring the quantity theory of money and employing neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models, central bankers are often wrong-footed. They think that by managing policy rates, they are controlling monetary policy when in reality, they are just reacting to changes in the quantity of money that occurred in a prior period.

For example, the Fed refused to raise rates in 2020 or 2021, asserting that inflation was “transitory”. The Fed only reluctantly started to raise rates in mid-2022. But the excess money creation the Fed had engineered in 2020-2021 generated inflation that peaked at 9.1% per year and forced the Fed to raise rates to 5.5%. If the Fed had refrained from letting the money supply surge in 2020-2021, the steep rate hikes would not have been needed, as evidenced by the experience of China and Switzerland, countries that did not allow excess money growth to occur during the COVID pandemic.

Monetary policy’s Holy Grail is money, not interest rates.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Paramount, Netflix spur Wall Street race to win jumbo loan deals

Published

on



In the space of less than a week, the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. has unleashed two multi-billion debt deals that rank among the largest in the past decade.

The latest came from Paramount Skydance Corp. as it lined up as much as $54 billion of financing from Wall Street’s biggest firms to help support its $108 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros., just days after the company agreed to a deal with Netflix Inc.

Loans of this size have been few and far between over the past couple of years amid subdued acquisition activity. But that’s all changed recently amid a frenzy to fund data-center build outs in the race for artificial intelligence expansion, as well as a pick up in M&A.

Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Apollo Global Management Inc. are providing the debt commitment to Paramount, according to a statement Monday. Each one of the trio has signed up for about $18 billion, or a third, of the total commitment, according to a filing.

Just late last week, Netflix lined up $59 billion of unsecured financing from Wells Fargo & Co., BNP Paribas SA and HSBC Plc in another bridge loan for its own bid for part of Warner Bros. Such bridge loans, a type of facility that’s usually replaced with permanent financing like bonds, are a crucial step for banks in building relationships with companies to win higher-paying mandates down the road.

Paramount’s bid at $30 a share in cash comes after Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. for $27.75 in cash and stock in a $72 billion deal. Paramount’s bid is for the entirety of Warner Bros., while Netflix is only interested in the Hollywood studios and streaming business. Paramount — which is backed by Larry Ellison, one of the world’s richest people — said its offer gives shareholders $18 billion more in cash than the Netflix bid would.

The Ellison family and RedBird Capital Partners are backstopping the $40.7 billion equity financing for the Paramount bid. Affinity Partners, the private equity firm founded by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding Company PJSC and the Qatar Investment Authority are also financing partners. China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd., which had originally been listed as providing a $1 billion commitment, is no longer involved as a financing partner, according to the filing.

Ratings Game

While sizable, the financings for Netflix and Paramount don’t quite match the $75 billion of loans Anheuser-Busch InBev SA obtained to back its acquisition of SABMiller Plc in 2015, which amounted to the largest ever bridge loan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Even so, Wall Street is looking to earn lucrative fees tied to a long-awaited revival in acquisitions. One or a small group of banks typically provide the initial bridge loan, and then bring in other banks to spread the risk once the acquisition is publicly announced. After a time, those loans are replaced with bonds sold to institutional investors.

One key difference with Paramount’s bridge loan is that it will be secured by the company’s assets. Netflix’s bridge is unsecured, meaning it’s not backed by specific collateral. That’s likely due to the different credit ratings each company has. 

Netflix, which is rated investment grade, is expected to replace its bridge loan with up to $25 billion of bonds, plus $20 billion of delayed-draw term loans and a $5 billion revolving credit facility, both of which are typically held by banks. Paramount has lower credit scores of a BB+ rating by S&P Global Ratings, which is one level below investment grade, and BBB- by Fitch Ratings, or on the cusp of junk.

The high-grade market typically has a deeper pool of investors and offers cheaper financing, and would be more easily able to absorb a large financing of this size.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Parents are sacrificing retirement, taking second jobs, and liquidating investments for college

Published

on



Parents make countless sacrifices for their children. And now that college is more expensive than ever, they’re jeopardizing their own financial futures to try to secure their kids’. 

According to a survey of 1,000 parents from Citizens Bank, respondents say they are taking on a second job (19%), borrowing against their 401(k) or liquidating personal funds (30%), pausing investing entirely (26%), and cutting back on major purchases or vacations (66%). And more than 60% of parents reported they expect to delay their retirement in order to pay for their kids’ college education.

The cost of college has ballooned: It’s 40 times higher than it was in 1963, according to the Education Data Initiative. And between 2010 and 2023 alone, tuition costs at four-year public universities jumped more than 36%, Education Data Initiative said, with the average cost of college today nearly $40,000 per year.

That’s led more than 60% of parents to need to go “above and beyond” typical financing options like 529 plans and federal loans, according to the Citizens survey data. 

“Compared to just a few years ago, the pressure has increased due to rising tuition, inflation, and greater uncertainty around future costs,” Tony Durkan, vice president and head of 529 college savings at Fidelity, told Fortune. “Many families are still underprepared, often relying on rough estimates rather than clear savings goals.”

Financial sacrifices for a college education are ‘very risky

Pam Krueger, investment advisor and founder of Wealthramp, said the phenomenon of parents taking on side gigs, pulling money out of retirement, and refinancing their homes to pay for college is incredibly common. 

“It’s coming from a place of love and a desire to protect their kids from the burden of student debt—but it’s also very risky,” Krueger warned. “These choices can set parents back in a way that’s really hard to recover from.”

Part of the problem is the disconnect between college admissions and financial planning, according to Citizens. Survey data showed one in five parents admitted they just focused on getting their child into college without thinking about how to pay for it. And it’s such a touchy and embarrassing topic for parents,  almost 50% of survey-takers said they would rather talk to their children about drugs and alcohol. 

How to prepare to pay for college

While pulling money from retirement, taking on another job, or refinancing your home may feel like the only option to come up with enough funding for college, financial advisors say there are other options. 

Of course, a 529 savings plan can help—but that has a longer runway. These tax-advantaged plans can sometimes allow you to pay for tuition ahead of time, but many people save for many, many years to fund these accounts. 

Still, “the earlier you begin saving, the more time your money has to grow through compounding,” Durkan said. “Even small, regular contributions can add up significantly over time.” Plus, any funds that aren’t used can be transferred to a sibling, cousin, or back to yourself, meaning no wasted money—and it stays in the family, Krueger said.

But if it’s too late in the process—like if your kid is already in high school—an alternate strategy is needed. Krueger said this requires open and honest communication with your child about what you can actually afford. 

“Sit down with your child and talk openly about what’s realistic. Explore schools that are generous with merit aid or have transparent pricing,” Krueger said. “And look at the full cost—not just tuition, but room and board, books, travel. Sometimes the ‘big name’ school isn’t the best financial fit—and that’s okay.”

For parents just starting to plan for college while their children are in high school, Brian Safdari, founder and CEO of College Planning Experts, also suggests moving around investments and assets and as well as applying for grants, scholarships, merit-based aid, and institutional aid starting as early as ninth or 10th grade. Even private colleges with sticker prices of $95,000 or more a year could offer generous aid that make the final cost the same as a public school or even less, he told Fortune.

Still, “the expected cost minus savings minus free money will likely still leave a gap,” Safdari said. “Once we have that number, we can start figuring out how to fund it over four years, while minimizing student debt and leaving enough money to retire.”

A version of this story was published on Fortune.com on June 25, 2025.

More on saving for college:

Fortune Brainstorm AI returns to San Francisco Dec. 8–9 to convene the smartest people we know—technologists, entrepreneurs, Fortune Global 500 executives, investors, policymakers, and the brilliant minds in between—to explore and interrogate the most pressing questions about AI at another pivotal moment. Register here.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Apple won’t be the same in 2026 as these rising stars follow its biggest executive exodus in years

Published

on



Apple is experiencing the most extensive leadership transformation since its visionary CEO and cofounder Steve Jobs died in 2011, with a wave of departures across artificial intelligence, design, legal, operations, and financial divisions that will reshape one of the world’s most valuable companies.

The iPhone maker announced last week that Lisa Jackson, its vice president of environment, policy, and social initiatives, will retire in January, while Kate Adams, who has served as general counsel since 2017, will retire late next year. These departures follow a cascade of recent exits including AI chief John Giannandrea, who announced his retirement this month, and Alan Dye, the head of user interface design since 2015, who left to join Meta. Bloomberg also reported that Johny Srouji, Apple’s chief chip architect for Apple Silicon, is mulling an exit, but the 61-year-old executive threw cold water on those rumors Monday, saying “I love my team, I love my job at Apple” in a memo to staffers.

Speaking of Meta, Mark Zuckerberg’s social media empire has been the beneficiary of Apple’s exodus. Billy Sorrentino, another senior design director, chose to leave for Meta with Dye, and Ruoming Pang, who headed Apple’s AI foundation models team, also left for Meta in July, taking approximately 100 engineers with him. Ke Yang, who led AI-driven web search for Siri, and Jian Zhang, Apple’s AI robotics lead, also left for Meta this year.

But perhaps the biggest change at the top this year has been Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams, who decided to retire in July after 27 years with Apple. He was long considered the top candidate to succeed CEO Tim Cook. Also this summer, CFO Luca Maestri stepped back from his role to instead oversee corporate services starting in the new year, while Kevan Parekh took over as CFO.

Succession planning and Tim Cook’s future

The scale of the turnover has been striking, but the timing appears connected to succession planning. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times have reported that Apple is ramping up efforts to prepare for Cook, who turned 65 in November, to potentially retire in 2026. He has led the company since 2011 and grown its market cap from roughly $350 billion to $4 trillion.

John Ternus, Apple’s senior vice president of hardware engineering, has emerged as the leading internal candidate to replace Cook. Ternus, 50, joined Apple’s product design team in 2001 and has overseen hardware engineering for every generation of iPad, the latest iPhone lineup, and AirPods. He played a crucial role in the Mac’s transition to Apple silicon.

The choice of Ternus would mark a departure from Apple’s recent operational focus under Cook. While Cook and Williams both had operational backgrounds with expertise in global supply chains, Ternus brings technical hardware expertise. His selection would signal that Apple is prioritizing product innovation as it faces challenges in new categories like the Vision Pro and competition in artificial intelligence.

Apple’s new AI leadership

Apple is bringing in Amar Subramanya, a veteran of both Google and Microsoft, to lead its AI efforts. Subramanya spent 16 years at Google, eventually becoming head of engineering for Google’s AI assistant Gemini, before a brief stint at Microsoft as corporate vice president of AI. He will oversee Apple Foundation Models, machine learning research, and AI safety, reporting to software chief Craig Federighi.

Subramanya’s hire signals Apple’s determination to accelerate its AI capabilities after falling behind competitors like Google and OpenAI. His experience building large language models at Google positions him to help Apple develop competitive generative AI products, a critical battleground for tech companies in the coming years.

Apple’s new design leadership

On the design front, Stephen Lemay is replacing Dye as the head of user interface design. Lemay has been with Apple since 1999 and played a key role in designing every major Apple interface from the original iPhone to the latest operating systems.

The promotion of Lemay has reportedly been met with enthusiasm inside Apple. Blogger and podcaster John Gruber, who has covered Apple for decades and has deep ties within the company, wrote that employees are borderline “giddy” about Lemay taking over.

“Sources I’ve spoken to who’ve worked with Lemay at Apple speak highly of him, particularly his attention to detail and craftsmanship,” Gruber wrote. “Those things have been sorely lacking in the Dye era.”

This internal promotion contrasts sharply with how Dye’s departure was received. Dye had overseen UI design for a decade but faced internal criticism over design direction and product quality. Lemay’s appointment represents a return to the company’s design-first philosophy that characterized Apple’s earlier innovation phases.

Apple’s new operations and supply chain leadership

Sabih Khan, who has been with Apple for 30 years, took over as chief operating officer in July, succeeding Williams. Khan joined the executive team as senior vice president of operations in 2019 and has overseen Apple’s global supply chain for the past six years. Khan will also now oversee environment and social initiatives, taking on some of Lisa Jackson’s former responsibilities.

Khan’s appointment represents continuity in operations while consolidating responsibilities across the executive suite. His deep knowledge of Apple’s manufacturing and logistics networks positions him to navigate ongoing supply chain challenges, particularly as the company diversifies production beyond China.

Jennifer Newstead, currently Meta’s chief legal officer and a former legal adviser to the U.S. State Department, will become Apple’s general counsel on March 1, 2026. In a consolidation of responsibilities, Newstead will oversee both legal and government affairs, effectively merging the roles previously held by Adams and Jackson.

Newstead brings significant international law and regulatory expertise at a critical time for Apple. The company faces increasing scrutiny from antitrust regulators worldwide, particularly in the European Union and the United States. The Justice Department and 16 attorneys general filed an antitrust suit against Apple last March, alleging the company’s policies hamper competition and make it difficult for consumers to switch phones. A trial date is not yet set, but suffice to say Newstead’s work will be cut out for her once she starts.

Her appointment underscores Apple’s focus on navigating complex regulatory environments while addressing regulatory challenges around AI development and data privacy. Her experience in government affairs at Meta, where she managed relations with policymakers globally, makes her well-suited to handle Apple’s expanding regulatory obligations.

Apple’s new financial leadership

Kevan Parekh assumed the chief financial officer role on January 1, 2025, replacing Luca Maestri, who had held the position since 2014. Parekh brought deep familiarity with Apple’s financial operations, having worked in the company’s finance division previously. His transition to CFO continues Apple’s pattern of promoting experienced insiders to top roles, though his tenure also reflects the company’s need for steady financial stewardship amid market volatility and shifting investor expectations.

Apple’s inflection point

The departures span functions critical to Apple’s competitive position. Beyond the visible departures, Apple has lost significant talent in AI research to its competition in Silicon Valley, namely Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI. Apple is attempting to address this through high-profile hires like Subramanya, but the scale of departures suggests internal friction or strategic shifts that pushed executives to explore opportunities elsewhere.

The consolidation of responsibilities—particularly having Newstead oversee both legal and government affairs, and Khan handling operations and environmental initiatives—suggests Apple is also tightening its executive structure. This could be driven by cost considerations or by a desire to create clearer lines of authority as the company prepares for potential leadership transitions.

Despite the upheaval, Apple is positioning these changes as strategic rather than reactive. The transitions of Williams, Maestri, and others were described as “long-planned successions” in company announcements. Cook has publicly praised the incoming leaders and emphasized continuity, even as Apple assembles what amounts to an entirely new leadership team for its next chapter.

Cook himself remains a question mark. While some reports suggest he could retire in 2026, the executive has been adamant about his plans. In January, Cook told CNBC he would never retire, at least in “the traditional way,” adding he would “always want to work.” Still, all the reliable reporting since that on-air interview points to scenarios in which Cook will step back from day-to-day operations.

Looking ahead

Whether this new generation can maintain Apple’s innovation momentum while navigating AI competition, regulatory pressure, and the eventual departure of Cook himself remains the defining question for the company’s future. The success of Ternus, Newstead, Lemay, Khan, and Subramanya will determine whether Apple can accelerate its AI capabilities, maintain design excellence, navigate regulatory challenges, and sustain the company’s position as one of the world’s leading tech companies.

The changes also reflect a shift in Apple’s strategic priorities. Under Cook, the company has excelled in operational efficiency and global supply chain management. But under Ternus—if he indeed becomes CEO—the company may place greater emphasis on hardware innovation and product differentiation, particularly in emerging categories where AI and design intersect.

The appointment of Subramanya to lead AI, combined with the return of Stephen Lemay to design, suggests Apple is doubling down on what made it successful in the first place: breakthrough products with cutting-edge technology with thoughtful design.

It all suggests 2026 will be a pivotal year for Apple, which is expected to accelerate its AI efforts, roll out new phone designs, and fend off regulators to secure long-term positioning in the rapidly changing landscape.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.