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Markets still price in September cut, but Powell in Jackson Hole may not be the hint once believed

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Markets were hoping for a further signal of their estimations this week, at the Jackson Hole Symposium held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jackson Hole has previously been the site of tidal changes in monetary policy, with spectators widely expecting Chairman Jerome Powell to keep up the tradition at the end of the week.

But as the summit draws closer, the data is only shifting further away from a rate-cut scenario, and the likelihood of a lower cut is more tenuous.

A week ago, the chance of a September cut was being priced in at more than 95% by the market. At the start of a week that might otherwise have firmed that belief, the odds are lower. According to CME’s FedWatch, the chance of the base rate being lower by one click to between 4% and 4.25% now stands at a little under 85%, with a 15.2% chance of a hold.

Markets are flat this morning as the events of late last week (namely, President Trump’s meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin) didn’t do enough to shift the dial on prospects for better or worse. Before the bell, the S&P 500 is down 0.3%, the Nasdaq down 0.4% and the Dow up a minor 0.08%. S&P futures are down 0.08%.

In Europe the FTSE 100 is flat, Germany’s DAX down 0.3% and the CAC down 0.6%. In Asia the Nikkei 225 is up 0.77%, the SSE up 0.85% and the Hang Song Index down 0.37%.

Markets have good precedent to be looking toward the end of the week (the symposium is held from Thursday to Sunday) for the major economic headlines. As Deutsche Bank noted to clients this morning: “The Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole has often been used to send important policy signals, and it was last year that Powell said the “time has come for policy to adjust” before they then cut rates at the next meeting for the first time since the pandemic. This time around, we don’t have the full agenda yet, but the subtitle for Powell’s speech on the Fed’s website says “Economic Outlook and Framework Review”, so we can expect some insight on those topics.”

The notice of framework review is particularly of interest Henry Allen, a macro strategist at Deutsche, added in his note. The last time such a framework concluded was in 2020 and resulted in a shift toward average inflation targeting. Essentially, the Fed would look at periods where inflation had been persistently lower than 2% (across the span of the 2010s, for example) and would allow for policy which supported inflation above the 2% target to counteract the timing overall.

“The Fed also reinterpreted their approach to full employment, in that a tight labour market alone wasn’t a reason to raise rates. So that implied a move away from the pre-emptive approach whereby the Fed would tighten policy to get ahead of future inflation as the labour market tightened,” Allen wrote. “Of course, we now know that shortly after the framework review, there was then a major burst of inflation, and although it had many drivers, our U.S. economists concluded in a Friday note that the new framework was a contributor to that overshoot.

“So this time around, they expect Powell’s speech to call for rolling back the 2020 modifications and restoring a primary role for pre-emption.”

If the Fed does decide to take a longer-term view on inflation, those hoping for a cut may be disappointed. Since 2021, inflation has stayed persistently above the target of 2%, with analysts suggesting further pressures are coming down the pike courtesy of President Trump’s tariff plan.

A clear shift

Not even a week ago, the likes of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were not only confident of a September cut but also questioned whether a larger cut could be justified. The pressure for a cut came from a shock jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which revealed the employment market has been in far worse shape this summer than previously expected.

The market’s surety of a cut grew as a result, expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to rush to the aid of the maximum employment side of its dual mandate. A better-than-expected consumer inflation report added to confidences—though most conveniently overlooked the fact core inflation has now inched over 3%.

However, July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) poured a little cold water on the excitement, showing the fastest increase since March 2022 and hinting that while tariff pass-through hasn’t yet fully hit consumers, it’s bleeding into the domestic economy.

Indeed, the data has been enough to push Bank of America to side with the minority: That Powell will announce no change to the base rate next month.

Global economists Claudio Irigoyen and Antonio Gabriel wrote Friday: “With inflation essentially stuck over the past year, the tariff passthrough that we still expect, and the labor supply story keeping the unemployment rate historically low, we still think there is a strong case for the Fed to remain on hold. We will see next week if Powell holds the line or not, and then focus will shift to the next jobs report.”

Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:

  • S&P 500 futures were flat Monday morning. 
  • STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.1% early trading. 
  • The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.1% early trading.
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.77%. 
  • China’s CSI 300 was up 0.88%. 
  • India’s Nifty 50 was up 1%. 
  • Bitcoin declined to $115.180K.
Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.



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Mike Bloomberg’s new $50 million mayor bootcamp trains local leaders not to ‘play it safe’

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Michael R. Bloomberg has believed mayors have plenty to teach each other since he was mayor of New York City and supported the effort to share good municipal ideas through his nonprofit Bloomberg Philanthropies since he left office in 2013.

However, as more nations get bogged down in what the media entrepreneur and philanthropist calls “ideological battles and finger-pointing,” Bloomberg says mayors can do even more. He is expanding his support for them internationally, with the Bloomberg LSE European City Leadership Initiative, a collaboration with the London School of Economics and Political Science and the Hertie School in Berlin. And other philanthropists are investing in building stronger municipal governments to strengthen urban communities.

“Mayors are more important than ever because cities are more important than ever,” Bloomberg told The Associated Press in a statement. “For the first time in the history of the world, a growing majority of the world’s people live in cities – and cities lie at the heart of many of the biggest challenges facing countries, including expanding economic opportunity.”

The new international initiative, established by a $50 million investment from Bloomberg Philanthropies, brings together 30 mayors and 60 senior officials from 17 countries, representing over 21 million residents.

After one meeting in October, some already see the potential.

Oliver Coppard, mayor of South Yorkshire, England, jumped at the chance to work with Bloomberg Philanthropies again. Coppard learned much at the Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership Initiative, which focuses on training American mayors, but offers 25% of its seats to international mayors. And even he was surprised by how much he had in common with the first international class of mayors. They all look for ways to get their organizations to move faster, deal with social media, and communicate better with their communities.

“It was actually really surprising,” Coppard said. “There are a bunch of areas where, we all felt, despite the very different context that we work in, we were facing very similar challenges.”

A ‘show me, not trust me’ moment for mayors

Despite the varying political ideologies and viewpoints from a wide range of countries, Coppard said what united the mayors was a desire to serve their communities better through health care, transportation, and communication.

It’s exactly what James Anderson, head of Government Innovation programs at Bloomberg Philanthropies, hoped they would find. But he says tackling those issues has broader implications that require more philanthropic involvement.

“All of these mayors are recognizing that local governments have become the bulwark for democratic legitimacy,” Anderson said. “They feel the burden of that. And they want new and better ways to rebuild trust and a sense amongst their citizenry that government — local government, in particular — sees them and can respond to their needs in impactful ways.”

Anderson said the mayors also understand they have to show how government works for its community. Public safety, trash pickup and snow plowing have taken on new significance.

“We are in a moment where trust in institutions is very low,” he said. “This is a ‘Show me, not trust me’ moment. And mayors recognize that means they need to govern differently.”

Joseph Deitch, founder of the Elevate Prize Foundation, believes that philanthropy also has to support mayors and their cities differently.

“These days, there’s so much polarization,” he said. “Everyone is defending their corner. So where can we have common ground? I think one of those places is love of our cities.”

Launching Elevate Cities in Miami

To cultivate a stronger bond to those places, Deitch has launched Elevate Cities, a new initiative that both celebrates what makes cities special and convenes community leaders to make them better. The initiative will start in Deitch’s current home with Elevate Miami, though he hopes to expand it quickly to other cities.

In November, Elevate Miami awarded $25,000 unrestricted grants to three different Miami nonprofits to increase their impact on the city. Later this month, there will be a citywide scavenger hunt to introduce Miami residents to nonprofits in the area. And in January, Elevate Miami will launch a contest to write a love song to the city.

Kim Coupounas, Elevate Cities CEO, says that getting people to recognize all the positive things happening around them in their city makes it easier to cultivate civic pride. It also makes it easier for municipal leaders to get support from the community.

“We’re really trying to engage all of the city,” she said. “There’s so much potential and possibility that can come to life because we join hands and recognize what a good place we live in and what more can happen here.”

Bloomberg said he hopes the new Bloomberg LSE European City Leadership Initiative and other programs supporting municipal leaders will help spread good ideas and the diversity of viewpoints needed to try new strategies for their cities.

“If mayors want to do big things, they can’t afford to play it safe,” he said.

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Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of AP’s philanthropy coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/philanthropy.



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‘It absolutely matters politically’: Swing-district Republicans alarmed at spiking health insurance premiums tipping midterms

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Republicans in key battleground U.S. House districts are working to contain the political fallout that may come when thousands of their constituents face higher bills for health insurance coverage obtained through the Affordable Care Act.

For a critical sliver of the Republican majority, the impending expiration of what are called enhanced premium tax credits after Dec. 31 is a pressing concern as they potentially face headwinds in a 2026 midterm election that will be critical to President Donald Trump’s agenda.

One of those is first-term U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., whose victory for the Allentown-area seat last year was among the narrowest in the nation.

Mackenzie is part of a bipartisan group that has been pressing for an eleventh-hour compromise, advocating for an extension of the tax credits that tries to fix perceived flaws and bring down health care costs. But the push is a long shot due to entrenched GOP opposition to the health overhaul known as “Obamacare.”

“I think that we need to deal with the reality of where we are now and even if you have a broken system, that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t provide or offer relief to individuals who are dealing with those high costs right now,” Mackenzie said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Democrats have been laying the groundwork, starting with this fall’s shutdown fight, to make the health care issue a focus of next year’s campaigns.

The party’s strategy for capturing the House majority centers on pinning higher bills for groceries, health insurance and utilities on the policies of Trump and Republicans.

Republicans torn over an extension

In Washington, Republicans from competitive House districts have authored or signed onto bills that would temporarily extend the tax credits. A new bipartisan proposal unveiled Thursday has drawn support from roughly 15 Republicans and 20 Democrats so far.

“I have 40,000 people in my district who rely on this health care and doing nothing to prevent a spike in their premiums is wrong,” said U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., a sponsor of the plan.

Thirteen Republicans — including Mackenzie — signed a letter in late October to the House speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., encouraging the temporary extension of the tax credits, saying letting them “lapse without a clear path forward would risk real harm to those we represent.”

Johnson hasn’t committed to a short-term extension vote before Jan. 1 and has dismissed the looming premium increases as affecting a small percentage of Americans.

More than 24 million people have ACA health insurance, including farmers, business owners and other self-employed people who don’t have other health insurance options through their work.

Many benefit from subsidies that lower their out-of-pocket cost. Those subsidies include the enhanced premium tax credits, which were added and then extended under Democratic President Joe Biden when his party was the majority in Congress.

Some Republicans — including Mackenzie — couch their support for an extension with the caveat that changes must be made. One is rooting out insurance broker fraud. Another is backing off subsidies for higher earners.

Time is running out

U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley, one of the California Republicans whose districts have been redrawn to favor a Democrat, sponsored a bill to extend the tax credits for two years. His bill would also impose an income eligibility cap to exclude higher earners.

Kiley said the current system isn’t working, but there’s not enough time to make systematic reforms before millions of Americans “just suddenly pay double on their premiums.”

U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., also has a bill to temporarily extend the credit, and said letting the subsidy lapse will make it harder for Republicans to retain the majority next year.

“People say, ‘well, it’s not that many people,’” Van Drew said. “The kind of election we’re going to have in the midterms in multiple districts is going to be decided by one or two points. It’s going to be close. It’s going to be tight, and it does matter. It absolutely matters politically.”

U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chair of the House Republicans’ campaign arm, said the tax credits won’t be “decisive” in next year’s election when other things are likely to be on voters’ minds.

Democrats will run on affordability

But U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington state, who chairs the House Democrats’ campaign arm, said swing-district Republicans won’t be able to distance themselves from the expiration of the tax credits.

“The number one issue across the country is affordability and health care is a key part of that,” DelBene said.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that 3.8 million more people will be uninsured in 2035 if the tax credits aren’t extended. But the tax credits also come with a cost: Extending them would increase the deficit by $350 billion over the next decade.

The expiration of the tax credits means enrollees will see annual premiums more than double — from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026, according to health care research nonprofit KFF. That’s an increase of 114%.

The size of the increases varies by state, age and income and will be more extreme in Mackenzie’s district, according to state data, which puts the average premium increase at 178%.

A primary field of Democrats is shaping up for the nomination to challenge Mackenzie. They say they’re hearing from people who are struggling to afford rising premiums.

One of those Democrats, Ryan Crosswell, said rising insurance costs are a “breaking of promises” by Trump, Republicans and Mackenzie. Another Democrat, Carol Obando-Derstine, called the impending expiration a “crisis of (Mackenzie’s) own making.”

Mackenzie says he’s made it clear repeatedly that he supports an extension, but that “I am not the speaker, I don’t set the calendar or the agenda. I’m not the leader, I can’t call up bills.”

Enrollees facing hard choices

In Mackenzie’s district, more than 20,000 people received the enhanced tax credits in 2025, according to state data. He won his race last year by 1 percentage point, or about 4,000 votes.

One of those 20,000 people in Mackenzie’s district is Patrick Visconti, who switched to a low-premium, high-deductible plan because he couldn’t afford to keep his plan with a premium that is more than doubling from under $200 to over $500 a month.

Visconti, 59, who works as a self-employed landscaper and a bus driver, said the plan he picked is “crappy coverage.”

“I’d rather pay the $200 a month. But I can’t get anything for $200,” Visconti said.

Lynn Weidner, a home care worker in Mackenzie’s district who works nearly 80 hours a week, said her $400 premium will increase to $680. But, she said, she’s leaning toward selecting the plan because she has various conditions — including an iron deficiency — that require regular medical care.

“So I’m trying to find places where I can cut money so that I can afford my insurance come January, which is stressful,” Weidner said.



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‘Everybody wants the economy of tomorrow, but paying the bills today is absolutely critical’: Democratic governors huddle on affordability

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Democratic governors met this weekend in Arizona, looking to parlay last month’s big victories for the party in New Jersey and Virginia into campaigns for next year’s midterms, when a majority of governor’s seats will be up for election.

Those elections helped Democrats zero in on what they see as a strategy to help grow their ranks in office and recover from big losses in 2024, when voters put Donald Trump back in the White House and gave Republicans majorities in both houses of Congress.

The plan is to focus intently on making life more affordable, a message they hope will work even in some conservative-leaning states.

“We have to be laser focused on people’s everyday concerns and how hard life is right now for the American people,” said Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the new chairman of the Democratic Governors Association and a possible candidate for president in 2028. “Everybody wants the economy of tomorrow, but paying the bills today is absolutely critical.”

He and other governors said Democrats can use the affordability message as a cudgel against Trump without making him the central focus of their campaigns.

“Yes, we can judge a president, and we should judge this president,” Beshear said. “But we never judge those voters.”

Democrats hone in on costs

The meeting of Democratic governors comes as blue states have been under fire from the Trump administration, which is exercising power in novel ways against the president’s perceived enemies.

Trump has deployed the National Guard in California, Oregon and Illinois over the objections of their Democratic governors. His administration has demanded detailed voter data and threatened to cut off food assistance for states that don’t provide information to support his immigration crackdown.

Heading into a primary season in which factions will battle over the future of the party, Democratic governors largely sang from the same sheet over the weekend. A dozen candidates and sitting governors all said they plan to talk extensively about the costs of housing, child care, utilities and groceries during Trump’s second term.

But the unified focus on affordability papers over real divisions in the party’s ranks over how aggressively to confront Trump, who won all of the presidential battleground states last year, and how to deal with the rising costs that are squeezing Americans.

On the same day Democratic moderates with national security credentials, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, won their governor’s races, Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani won election as New York mayor. All ran on promises to tackle affordability, but they offered very different visions for how to deliver.

The affordability strategy isn’t without risk. Economic conditions could change, making concerns about prices less salient or urgent.

And Democrats could be setting themselves up for disappointment down the road if they win in 2026 but are unable to bring down costs to voters’ satisfaction, allowing Republicans to capitalize on the same buyer’s remorse Democrats are now seeking to stoke.

For Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, they can’t rest on fighting the Trump administration, said two-term Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico. They need to show results.

“Deliver for me. But don’t forget to fight this,” said Lujan Grisham, who is barred by term limits from seeking reelection. “They do want both, and finding ways to cross-cut those and marry that I think is going to be a winning set of messages.”

Affordability also becomes a focal point for Trump

After the New Jersey and Virginia elections last month, the White House began shifting its message to focus more on affordability. Trump, who has not done much domestic travel during his second term, is scheduled to visit Pennsylvania on Tuesday to highlight his efforts to reduce inflation.

The president has talked more about affordability recently, and he reduced tariffs on beef and other commodities that consumers say cost too much. But Trump also has said the economy is better and consumer prices lower than reported by the media.

“The word affordability is a Democrat scam,” he said during a Cabinet meeting last week.

He continues to blame his Democratic predecessor, former President Joe Biden, for the increase nationwide in inflation rates that occurred this year after his return to the White House. Overall, inflation is tracking at 3% annually, up from 2.3% in April when Trump rolled out a sweeping set of import taxes.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the administration will be intent on reducing inflation, after tackling immigration and pushing to have interest rates cut.

“I expect inflation to roll down strongly next year,” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Democratic governors and candidates were largely aligned in the conclusion that many voters in 2024 didn’t feel as if their party was focused on their concerns or shared their anger at a system they believe is failing average Americans.

“I think if there was any failure in the presidential election, it’s we forgot what real people care about,” said Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, who is expected to seek a second term next year.

“We’ve got to listen to people,” said Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta who is running for Georgia governor.

Democrats believe some red states could be in play

Once Spanberger takes office in January, Democrats will control 24 governor’s offices, a significant improvement from the low point of just 16 following the 2016 election but still slightly behind the Republicans’ 26 seats.

Thirty-six states will hold elections for governor next year.

Among the hardest-fought contests will be in swing states that flipped between supporting Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Those include Arizona, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking a second term, and Nevada, where Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is up for reelection. Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia all have open seats that are widely expected to attract a large field of candidates and big spending.

The retirement of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in Kansas, an overwhelmingly Republican state in presidential contests, gives the GOP the upper hand there. But Democrats are talking about expanding the field by competing in states such as Iowa or Ohio, where the party used to be competitive but has struggled in the Trump era.

Gina Hinojosa, a Texas lawmaker running for governor in the nation’s second-most populous state, is making the case to Democratic donors that investing in Texas will be crucial to her party’s hopes of winning power in Washington before the 2030 census. Her state is projected to pick up at least four House seats and Electoral College votes at the expense of blue states such as California and Illinois.

“If we don’t flip before the end of the decade, there won’t be Democratic control of Congress or the White House,” Hinojosa said. “Because the math doesn’t work.”



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