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The gap between higher and lower-income households is widening as inequality progress since pandemic has ‘gone into reverse,’ BofA economist says

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America’s consumer economy showed renewed signs of strength in July, but the gains are not being shared equally. According to the Bank of America Institute’s latest report, Consumer Checkpoint: Gains and gaps, higher-income households are enjoying accelerating wage growth and increased spending, while lower-income households face slowing pay gains and flat expenditure—marking the widest such divide in more than four years.

The Institute’s research, based on aggregated and anonymized deposit and transaction data, reveals that after-tax wages for the lowest-income tercile grew just 1.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July, down from 1.6% in June. In contrast, higher-income wage growth accelerated to 3.2% YoY—its third consecutive monthly increase.

The result is the biggest gap between top and bottom earners’ wage growth since February 2021—a warning sign for the economy despite a strong overall spending picture. Bank of America Institute senior economist David Tinsley told Fortune in an interview “in some sense, we had an improvement in lower-income wage growth since the pandemic and now that’s gone into reverse.”

Coming out of the pandemic was a “very unusual situation,” Tinsley added, and lower-income households genuinely did see stronger wage growth than other areas of the economy.

“There was a narrowing of wealth inequality and now it’s widening,” Tinsley said, but cautioned it was “early days,” but when he looks at what’s happening to higher and lower-income Americans, “the divergence is quite stark.”

Overall consumer activity picks up

Tinsley emphasized the overall consumer picture is “fairly healthy,” and his team’s research of the latest data shows total credit and debit card spending per household rose 1.8% YoY in July, the fastest pace since January. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending climbed 0.6% month-over-month (MoM), following a 0.4% gain in June.

Notably, the rebound was broad-based, as services spending surged 0.9% month-over-month, the strongest increase since April 2024, after three straight months of declines. Retail spending (excluding gasoline and restaurants) also edged higher, though part of the lift came from temporary factors such as extended “Prime Day”-style online promotions and a late surge in back-to-school shopping.

Tinsley and his team cautioned these boosts may fade. Some of July’s uptick may reflect “buy-ahead” behavior linked to the August 1 trade-deal deadline, as consumers sought to avoid potential tariff-related price hikes. Overall, temporary promotional spikes and inflation pass-through from tariffs complicate the picture. Retail transaction volumes rose more modestly than spending values, hinting higher prices, rather than greater quantities, may have driven part of the increase.

The widening wage gap tracks closely with labor market shifts. Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions show a sharp slowdown in payroll growth in the second quarter of 2025, with the biggest step-downs in low-wage industries such as retail, wholesale, leisure, and hospitality.

Bank of America deposit data indicates only a modest 4% year-over-year rise in the number of lower-income households receiving unemployment payments, compared with 10% increases among middle- and higher-income households. This suggests low-wage workers are not losing jobs in large numbers, but are instead facing reduced hours or muted pay growth.

Spending divergence now clear-cut

The spending data mirrors the pay trends. “Lower-income households aren’t really spending,” Tinsley told Fortune, finding that their spending growth was flat (0% year-over-year) in the three months to July. Higher-income households posted 1.8% year-over-year growth, with middle-income households up 1.0%.

While the lowest-income 30% of households account for less than 15% of total U.S. consumer spending, their purchases matter for sectors dependent on high transaction volumes, such as discount retail, quick-service restaurants, and budget travel. Importantly, Bank of America’s internal data shows the share of lower-income spending devoted to discretionary categories has barely changed since last year, suggesting they have not yet resorted to cutting non-essentials—but their capacity for future cutbacks remains small.

No early signs of consumer distress—yet

One potentially reassuring takeaway is the absence of typical distress indicators. Retail returns are not rising—the downtrend that began in 2022 has merely flattened, while deposit balances remain above 2019 levels even after adjusting for inflation, and credit card borrowing habits remain healthier than pre-pandemic. However, beneath these broad measures are hints of strain: Among lower-income households that do carry month-to-month card balances, credit card utilization rates have risen faster than in other groups since 2019.

Even with slower wage growth at the bottom, the Institute concludes household finances overall remain “sound.” Continued elevated savings, relatively low revolving credit usage, and stable borrowing capacity suggest consumers still possess spending firepower—a key factor supporting the economy’s resilience so far this year.

That said, the report notes middle- and higher-income households are doing much of the heavy lifting.

As Tinsley’s team observed: “From a macroeconomic perspective, it is reassuring that middle- and higher-income households’ spending growth does not appear to be weakening like it has for lower-income households,” noting the lowest 30% of households by income account for less than 15% of overall U.S. consumer spending. Still, the team added, “there are broader socioeconomic concerns around any slowdown in lower-income households’ wages and spending.”

When asked by Fortune to expand on these broader socioeconomic concerns, Tinsley said “there’s some time to go before this becomes really telling.” He estimated the economy is at least a year or maybe as much as 18 months away from truly reversing all the progress on wealth inequality that was seen coming out of the pandemic, but he said there’s no doubt about it. The widening wealth inequality picture “creates complexities going forward,” Tinsley said.


Key July 2025 Figures:

  • Total card spending per household: +1.8% YoY (fastest since January)
  • After-tax wage growth (lowest-income tercile): +1.3% YoY
  • After-tax wage growth (highest-income tercile): +3.2% YoY
  • Card spending (lowest tercile): 0% YoY
  • Card spending (highest tercile): +1.8% YoY
  • Services spending: +0.9% MoM (largest since April 2024)

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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Macron warns EU may hit China with tariffs over trade surplus

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French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.

“I’m trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus isn’t sustainable because they’re killing their own clients, notably by importing hardly anything from us any more,” Macron told Les Echos newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

“If they don’t react, in the coming months we Europeans will be obliged to take strong measures and decouple, like the US, like for example tariffs on Chinese products,” he said, adding that he had discussed the matter with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Macron has just returned from a three-day state visit in China, where he pressed for more investment as Paris seeks to recalibrate its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. France’s goods trade deficit with China reached around €47 billion ($54.7 billion) last year, according to the French Treasury. Meanwhile, China’s goods trade surplus with the EU swelled to almost $143 billion in the first half of 2025, a record for any six-month period, according to data released by China earlier this year.

Tensions between France and China escalated last year after Paris backed the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing retaliated by imposing minimum price requirements on French cognac, sparking fears among pork and dairy producers that they could be targeted next.

‘Life or Death’

Macron said the US approach to China was “inappropriate” and had worsened Europe’s position by diverting Chinese goods toward the EU market.

“Today, we’re stuck between the two, and it’s a question of life or death for European industry,” Macron said, while noting that Germany — Europe’s biggest economy — doesn’t entirely share France’s stance.

In addition to Europe needing to become more competitive, the European Central Bank too has a role to play in strengthening the EU’s single market, Macron said, arguing that monetary policy should take growth and jobs into account, not just inflation, he said.

He also said the ECB’s decision to continue selling the government bonds it holds risks pushing up long-term interest rates and weighing on economic activity.

“Europe must — and wants to — remain a zone of monetary stability and credible investment,” Macron said.



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