Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.9% month on month in June 2025, following a fall of 2.8% in May 2025, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. 

That May figure was actually revised downwards from the estimated 2.7% the ONS had released this time last month. So while the 0.9% rise for June is good news, we have to bear in mind that a revision a few weeks down the line could improve it — or it could wipe it out altogether.

Sales volumes in June rose by 1.7% year on year, but volumes were down by 1.6% compared with their pre-Covid level in February 2020.

More broadly, sales volumes rose by 0.2% in Q2 (Apr to June) 2025 when compared with Q1.

Digging into the detail, the ONS said food store sales rose following a fall in May 2025, with retailers reporting the warm weather had a positive effect. Food store sales volumes were up 0.7% month on month but non-food stores — the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores — rose marginally by only 0.2%. 

However, department stores and clothing retailers both rose (although clothing only marginally) “with mention of promotions and good weather”. But these snippets of good news were partly offset by falls in household goods stores (such as furniture stores) and other non-food retailers (such as those selling secondhand goods, which includes auction houses). Comments from retailers attributed these drops to lower footfall.

Non-store retailers’ sales volumes, which mainly includes online retailers, rose by 1.7% in June 2025, putting them at their highest level since February 2022. Again, promotions and the good weather contributed to the increase.

Frustratingly, the ONS no longer gives percentages for sales values in physical stores. But it does offer them for non-store retailers and it said the amount spent online rose by 2.3% month on month and by 4.5% year on year.

Total spend — that is, in-store and online sales combined — rose by 1.1% over the month. As a result, the proportion of sales made online rose from 27.4% in May 2025 to 27.8% in June.

Analysts stay cautious

As usual, analysts have been sharing their views on the numbers and Dr Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, welcomes the figures but added that the situation has deteriorated as the BRC’s own data shows consumer confidence has tumbled in July, and “sales performance over the rest of the summer is at risk”.

Also commenting from within the retail sector, Deann Evans, MD EMEA, at Shopify, said that retailers “will be pleased to see sales bounce back in June after falling in May. A record-breaking month for warm weather is likely to have contributed to this boost”. The company’s data showed hot weather-linked products seeing explosive growth.

But “shared cultural moments also drove spending, with consumers looking ahead to major sporting events. Wimbledon certainly captured attention with our data revealing sales of tennis rackets and tennis balls grew by 62.5% and 12.1%, respectively, year on year”. 

Evans was more upbeat than Hamer and added that “this highlights a compelling opportunity for retailers to harness the potential of cultural trends — and offers encouragement that sales figures will continue to grow for the remainder of the summer months.
 
“However, turning cultural buzz into meaningful commercial impact requires agility and speed from retailers to offer products and experiences that immerse consumers in the moment. Shoppers are seeking a sense of participation and retail is a natural avenue for this. By staying attuned to the cultural pulse, retailers can unlock new ways to drive growth and build loyalty throughout the year. This will be the key to continued success in the weeks and months ahead.”

Meanwhile Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, added: “The hot weather helped to lift the mood among consumers, while early sales tempted shoppers to the high street. Consumers purchased new outfits ahead of major sporting events in July including Wimbledon and summer headline concerts led by Beyoncé and Oasis.

“While the June figures are welcome news and consumer confidence ticked up last month, nervousness among consumers persists, and the unexpected rise in inflation won’t have helped. The higher price of essentials such as food and fuel will only add to the reluctance among consumers to spend as their discretionary income shrinks.

“Concerns remain in the sector, as retailers increasingly run out of headroom to mitigate rising costs. Many will be hoping the government steps in to provide meaningful reductions in business rates, as well as raising the threshold at which employers’ National Insurance becomes payable. It’s also hoped that the reintroduction of tax-free shopping is brought back on the table, so the sector doesn’t miss out further on valuable retail spend.”

Interestingly too, Sagar Shah, associate partner at McKinsey & Co, highlighted how tough it can be to predict where consumer attention will go next: “Retailers are operating in a climate where sentiment and spending no longer move in step. Shoppers are increasingly unpredictable, and historic trends only tell part of the story. Real-time insights into customer behaviour will be crucial for anticipating trends before they hit the shelves.”