More than taking in views from the top of the Empire State Building, more than watching Old Faithful erupt and even more than shaking hands with Mickey Mouse, visitors to the US come to do one thing: shop. But now, President Donald Trump’s global trade war and border policies — combined with broader economic uncertainty — are threatening billions of tourism dollars.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates almost 20 billion dollars in retail spending is at risk this year. Some travellers are avoiding the US altogether, and of those who are coming, many are rethinking their budgets. Although some major currencies have recently gained against the dollar, international visitors are still confronting years of US inflation that has driven up the price of hotel stays and restaurant meals, leaving less money in their pockets for shopping.

Travel-related spending, which typically grows each year, has been virtually flat this year through May when compared to the same period in 2024, data from the US International Trade Administration show. Meanwhile, foreign arrivals to the US by air were down 6.6% in June compared to last year, according to the ITA.

“Tourists would come with empty suitcases and they would go out, fill the suitcases up and then ship those suitcases home,” said Floris van Dijkum, a managing director at Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Now, habits are changing. “The jury is still out on the ultimate impact, but clearly you’re going to see some pressure,” he said.

Betto Souza, who has been working as a tour operator in South Florida for over a decade, is experiencing the shift first hand. While his clients — predominantly Brazilians like him — are still flocking to Miami for big events like the Miami Open and Formula One Grand Prix, they’re being more selective about what to spend their money on. 

Steep import taxes and trade barriers have long pushed Brazilians to buy brand-name products abroad, with electronics like Apple Inc. watches and MacBooks — as well as Nike Inc. sneakers, Tommy Hilfiger Corp. shirts and Michael Kors bags — among their go-to purchases.

Now, “some will opt not to buy sneakers so they can still purchase an iPhone. Or they’ll forgo buying perfume,” said Souza, 53, who owns Miami Tours & Limo Services. “Some are sacrificing shopping to be able to have experiences.”

Annet van der Meer, visiting New York City from the Netherlands, agrees. She’s still shopping for US brands, including New Balance sneakers and UGG boots, but much of her budget is going toward day-to-day expenses.

“Compared with Europe, it’s unbelievable,” said van der Meer, 64, who’d just visited the Macy’s store near the Empire State Building. “Food is very expensive, alcohol is very expensive — I think in Europe we pay two times less than here.”

Hotel prices are up almost 10% since before the pandemic, while the cost of eating out has risen by almost a third, according to government data. 

For years, tourists from across the world have included stops at US luxury stores and outlet malls on their list of must-dos when visiting the country. Though e-commerce and international expansion mean the days of filling suitcases with half-price US brands are in the past, there are still some bargains to be found — especially for visitors from countries where certain products are priced at a premium. 

Last year, shopping was the top leisure activity among the more than 48 million foreigners who flew to the US, a survey by the ITA found, topping sightseeing and visits to national parks, monuments and museums.

Visitors could be further deterred by the cost of visas, which are set to rise significantly due to new fees detailed in Trump’s multitrillion-dollar tax and spending bill. And in recent weeks, the president has been threatening new tariffs on imports from countries including Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. Canada has already seen widespread boycotts on all things American. 

The unease among tourists is adding to challenges for everyone from mom-and-pop owned retailers to big companies like Macy’s Inc., where Chief Executive Officer Tony Spring recently indicated that international tourism took a toll on sales last quarter. The company, which owns luxury brands Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury as well as its namesake stores, said its forward guidance was based on overseas shoppers staying away. 

Other companies have suggested US consumers could help offset some of the losses. UK fashion brand Burberry Group Plc said last week that a slowdown among tourists globally was the most challenging part of its business worldwide, but that sales in the Americas beat forecasts in the quarter through June, driven by “new local customer growth.”

Luana Krewer, a 24-year-old college student from Brazil’s capital, Brasilia, returned in May from a two-week trip to Orlando and Miami with her family. She was on the hunt for a Coach bag, but said that shopping in the US “is very different from what it used to be.” Compared to costs on her last visit in 2018, when she found deals on Apple products and the Brazilian real was almost twice as strong against the dollar, “I thought the prices were very expensive,” she said.

Ultimately, she spent more than 1,000 dollars on clothes at the discount store Ross Dress for Less and Florida’s outlet stores, picking up products from Nike, Gap Inc., Victoria’s Secret & Co. and Target Corp.

Back in midtown Manhattan, Selma Aydin manages the New York Gift Store near the Rockefeller Center, selling souvenirs including New York Yankees hats and shirts to tourists. She said fewer people are visiting the store this year, and they’re spending less. 

“Last year, if people were coming, they were spending 1,000 dollars,” said Aydin, 50. “One customer, for example, right now, is spending 200 dollars.”