Politics

The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches

Published

5 months ago

July 21, 2025

Republicans are encountering early headaches in Senate races viewed as pivotal to maintaining the party’s majority in next year’s midterm elections, with recruitment failures, open primaries, infighting and a President who has been sitting on the sidelines.

Democrats still face an uphill battle. They need to net four seats to retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that Republican President Donald Trump easily won last November.

But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans’ challenges. They include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still lacks a clear field of candidates. Trump’s influence dials up the uncertainty as he decides whether to flex his influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.

Republicans stress that it remains early in the election cycle and say there is still plenty of time for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to wade in. The President, said White House political director James Blair, has been working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican.

“I won’t get ahead of the President but look, him and leader Thune have been very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work closely,” he said.

Trump’s timing, allies say, also reflects the far more disciplined approach by him and his political operation, which are determined for Republicans to gain seats in both the Senate and the House.

Here’s what’s happening in some key Senate races:

An ugly Texas brawl

Democrats have long dreamed of winning statewide office in this ruby red state. Could a nasty GOP primary be their ticket?

National Republicans and GOP Senate strategists are ringing alarm bells amid concerns that state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is facing a bevy of personal and ethical questions, could prevail over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination.

They fear Paxton would be a disastrous general election candidate, forcing Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars they believe would be better spent in other states.

Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super political action committee supporting Cornyn, a onetime Trump critic, began airing television ads this past week promoting his support for Trump’s package of tax breaks and spending cuts.

Don’t expect the upbeat tone from the pro-Cornyn super PAC to hold long. Paxton was acquitted after a Republican-led impeachment trial in 2023 over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, which also exposed an extramarital affair. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce on July 10, referring to “recent discoveries” in announcing her decision to end her marriage of 38 years “on biblical grounds.”

“Ken Paxton has embarrassed himself, his family, and we look forward to exposing just how bad he’s embarrassed our state in the coming months,” said Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC’s executive director. Trump adviser Chris LaCivita, who co-managed Trump’s 2024 campaign, is advising the group.

But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while Paxton is a longtime Trump ally. And Paxton raised more than three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter, $2.9 million compared with $804,000, according to Federal Elections Commission reports.

U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also weighing a run.

Will Trump be persuaded to endorse or will he choose to steer clear?

Will North Carolina have a Trump on the ballot?

The surprise retirement announcement by two-term U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis has set off a frenzied search for a replacement in a state widely seen as Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. He had repeatedly clashed with Trump, including over Medicaid changes in the tax cut bill, leading the President to threaten to back a primary challenger.

All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the President’s daughter-in-law, who is mulling whether to run in her home state as other potential candidates stand by.

A familiar national Republican face as co-chair of the Republican National Committee during Trump’s 2024 campaign, Lara Trump is now a Fox News Channel host. She also had been a visible surrogate during previous campaigns, often promoting her North Carolina roots and the fact that she named her daughter Carolina.

Having a Trump on the ballot could boost a party that has struggled to motivate its most fervent base when Donald Trump is not running. But Lara Trump currently lives in Florida and has so far sounded muted on the prospect of a Senate run.

Other potential contenders include RNC chair Michael Whatley, who led North Carolina’s GOP before taking the national reins and is considered a strong fundraiser and Trump loyalist, and first-term U.S. Reps. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott. While Lara Trump and Whatley are better known nationally, Harrigan is a West Point graduate and Knott is a former federal prosecutor.

Democrats are waiting on a decision from former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper, who is seen as a formidable candidate by both parties in a state Trump carried by just 3.2 percentage points last year. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel has entered the race, but it’s unclear what he would do if Cooper ran.

In Georgia, a pickup opportunity with no candidate yet

Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democratin U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff as one of their best pickup opportunities. But the party remains in search of a well-known challenger after failing to persuade term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp to run.

A growing potential field includes U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach. The President is still meeting with possible candidates and is expected by many to wait to weigh in until his team has fully screened them and assessed their chances and after his budget priorities make their way through Congress.

Ossoff took in more than $10 million in the second quarter of the year, according to federal filings, after raising $11 million from January through March. He ended June with more than $15.5 million cash on hand.

That money will matter in what is sure to be an expensive general election. The Senate races in 2020, when Ossoff and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock narrowly won and flipped control to Democrats, cost more than $900 million combined.

Michigan GOP waits on Trump

Republicans hope the retirement of Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters and a crowded, expensive Democratic primary will help them capture a seat that has eluded them for more than three decades. Here, too, all eyes are on Trump.

Republicans are rallying around former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who came within 20,000 votes in 2024 against then-U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and had Trump’s endorsement. Rogers now appears to have momentum behind him, with the support of Thune, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former Trump campaign veterans LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.

But other Republicans could complicate things. U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga has said he is waiting for guidance from the president on whether he should run.

“When people are asking why haven’t you announced or what are you going to do, it’s like, look, I want to get the man’s input, all right?” Huizenga told reporters last month. A spokesperson for Huizenga added that the congressman has spoken to Trump on the phone multiple times and has yet to be told not to run.

Still, White House officials have on more than one occasion encouraged Huizenga to stay in the House, according to one person familiar with the conversations who was not authorized to publicly discuss the private discussions and spoke only on condition of anonymity.

Democrats have their own messy primary, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow up against Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

They were pleased to see that, even without any declared challengers, Rogers’ main campaign account raised just $745,000 during the second quarter, lagging Huizenga and several Democrats. (He brought in another nearly $779,000 through a separate joint fundraising committee.) McMorrow, by comparison, raised more than $2.1 million.

In Louisiana, another Trump antagonist

Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy has faced scrutiny from his party, in no small part for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after the president’s second impeachment. Will Trump seek retribution against the two-term senator or ultimately back him?

Though Cassidy already faces two primary challengers, Louisiana is a reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22 percentage points. Democrats are hoping a strong contender — potentially former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has attracted Republican votes in the past — might mount a competitive challenge.

Republicans are awaiting word on whether U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow will run. In May, Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump privately discussed the two-term congresswoman entering the race.

Letlow and Landry appeared together at a congressional fundraiser for her in Lafayette, outside her northeast Louisiana district, on June 30, fueling speculation about her plans.

The Governor’s discussion with Trump of a new challenger to Cassidy reflects the Trump base’s unease with Cassidy, not simply over the impeachment vote, but also Cassidy’s concerns about installing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation’s health secretary. Cassidy ultimately backed Kennedy, a move some saw as an effort to ease tensions.

Among Cassidy’s Republican challengers so far are state Treasurer John Fleming and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Letlow, serving in the seat her husband held before he died of COVID-19, is considered a rising star in the Louisiana GOP.

Wavering incumbent in Iowa

Two-term Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst has not said whether she plans to seek a third term.

Ernst would be expected to win in the state Trump carried by 13 percentage points last year. But she has come under some criticism from Iowa Republicans, including for saying she needed to hear more from Trump’s pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, before committing to support his nomination amid allegations of sexual assault that Hegseth denied.

The Senator, a combat veteran and sexual assault survivor, eventually voted to confirm him.

Though a final decision awaits, Ernst has named a 2026 campaign manager and has scheduled her annual Iowa fundraiser for October.

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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.

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Debra Tendrich turns ‘pain into policy’ with sweeping anti-domestic violence proposal

Published

3 hours ago

December 5, 2025

May Greene

Florida could soon rewrite how it responds to domestic violence.

Lake Worth Democratic Rep. Debra Tendrich has filed HB 277, a sweeping proposal aimed at modernizing the state’s domestic violence laws with major reforms to prevention, first responder training, court safeguards, diversion programs and victim safety.

It’s a deeply personal issue to Tendrich, who moved to Florida in 2012 to escape what she has described as a “domestic violence situation,” with only her daughter and a suitcase.

“As a survivor myself, HB 277 is more than legislation; it is my way of turning pain into policy,” she said in a statement, adding that months of roundtables with survivors and first responders “shaped this bill from start to finish.”

Tendrich said that, if passed, HB 277 or its upper-chamber analogue (SB 682) by Miami Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud would become Florida’s most comprehensive domestic violence initiative, covering prevention, early intervention, criminal accountability and survivor support.

It would require mandatory strangulation and domestic violence training for emergency medical technicians and paramedics, modernize the legal definition of domestic violence, expand the courts’ authority to order GPS monitoring and strengthen body camera requirements during investigations.

The bill also creates a treatment-based diversion pathway for first-time offenders who plead guilty and complete a batterers intervention program, mental-health services and weekly court-monitored progress reporting. Upon successful completion, charges could be dismissed, a measure Tendrich says will reduce recidivism while maintaining accountability.

On the victim-safety side, HB 277 would flag addresses for 12 months after a domestic-violence 911 call to give responders real-time risk awareness. It would also expand access to text-to-911, require pamphlets detailing the medical dangers of strangulation, authorize well-check visits tied to lethality assessments, enhance penalties for repeat offenders and include pets and service animals in injunctions to prevent coercive control and harm.

Calatayud called it “a tremendous honor and privilege” to work with Tendrich on advancing policy changes “that both law enforcement and survivors of domestic abuse or relationship violence believe are meaningful to protect families across our communities.”

“I’m deeply committed to championing these essential reforms,” she added, saying they would make “a life-or-death difference for women and children in Florida.”

Organizations supporting HB 277 say the bill reflects long-needed, practical reform. Palm Beach County firefighters union IAFF Local 2928 said expanded responder training and improved dispatch information “is exactly the kind of frontline-focused reform that saves lives.”

The Florida Police Benevolent Association called HB 277 a “comprehensive set of measures designed to enhance protections” and pledged to help advance it through the Legislature.

The Animal Legal Defense Fund praised provisions protecting pets in domestic violence cases, noting research showing that 89% of women with pets in abusive relationships have had partners threaten or harm their animals — a major barrier that keeps victims from fleeing.

Florida continues to see high levels of domestic violence. The National Coalition Against Domestic Violence estimates that 38% of Florida women and 29% of Florida men experience intimate-partner violence in their lifetimes — among the highest rates in the country.

With costs rising statewide, HB 277 also increases relocation assistance through the Crimes Compensation Trust Fund, which advocates say is essential because the current $1,500 cap no longer covers basic expenses for victims fleeing dangerous situations.

Tendrich said survivors who contributed to the bill, which Placida Republican Rep. Danny Nix is co-sponsoring, “finally feel seen.”

“This bill will save lives,” she said. “I am proud that this bill has bipartisan support, and I am even more proud of the survivors whose bravery drives every line of this legislation.”

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Ash Marwah, Ralph Massullo battle for SD 11 Special Election

Published

4 hours ago

December 5, 2025

May Greene

Even Ash Marwah knows the odds do him no favors.

A Senate district that leans heavily Republican plus a Special Election just weeks before Christmas — Marwah acknowledges it adds up to a likely Tuesday victory for Ralph Massullo.

The Senate District 11 Special Election is Tuesday to fill the void created when Blaise Ingoglia became Chief Financial Officer.

It pits Republican Massullo, a dermatologist and Republican former four-term House member from Lecanto, against Democrat Marwah, a civil engineer from The Villages.

Early voter turnout was light, as would be expected in a low-key standalone Special Election: At 10% or under for Hernando and Pasco counties, 19% in Sumter and 15% in Citrus.

Massullo has eyed this Senate seat since 2022 when he originally planned to leave the House after six years for the SD 11 run. His campaign ended prematurely when Gov. Ron DeSantis backed Ingoglia, leaving Massullo with a final two years in office before term limits ended his House career.

When the SD 11 seat opened up with Ingoglia’s CFO appointment, Massullo jumped in and a host of big-name endorsements followed, including from DeSantis, Ingoglia, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, U.S. Sens. Ashley Moody and Rick Scott, four GOP Congressmen, county Sheriffs in the district, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus is endorsing Marwah.

Marwah ran for HD 52 in 2024, garnering just 24% of the vote against Republican John Temple.

Massullo has raised $249,950 to Marwah’s $12,125. Massullo’s $108,000 in spending includes consulting, events and mail pieces. One of those mail pieces reminded voters there’s an election.

The two opponents had few opportunities for head-to-head debate. The League of Women Voters of Citrus County conducted a SD 11 forum on Zoom in late October, when the two candidates clashed over the state’s direction.

Marwah said DeSantis and Republicans are “playing games” in their attempts to redraw congressional district boundaries.

“No need to go through this expense,” he said. “It will really ruin decades of progress in civil rights. We should honor the rule of law that we agreed on that it’ll be done every 10 years. I’m not sure why the game is being played at this point.”

Massullo said congressional districts should reflect population shifts.

“The people of our state deserve to be adequately represented based on population,” he said. “I personally do not believe we should use race as a means to justify particular areas. I’m one that believes we should be blind to race, blind to creed, blind to sex, in everything that we do, particularly looking at population.”

Senate District 11 covers all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties, plus a portion of northern Pasco County. It is safely Republican — Ingoglia won 69% of the vote there in November, and Donald Trump carried the district by the same margin in 2024.

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Miles Davis tapped to lead School Board organizing workshop at national LGBTQ conference

Published

4 hours ago

December 5, 2025

May Greene

Miles Davis is taking his Florida-focused organizing playbook to the national stage.

Davis, Policy Director at PRISM Florida and Director of Advocacy and Communications at SAVE, has been selected to present a workshop at the 2026 Creating Change Conference, the largest annual LGBTQ advocacy and movement-building convention.

It’s a major nod to his rising role in Florida’s LGBTQ policy landscape.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, which organizes the conference, announced that Davis will present his session, “School Board Organizing 101.” His proposal rose to the top of more than 550 submissions competing for roughly 140 slots, a press note said, making this year’s conference one of the most competitive program cycles in the event’s history.

His workshop will be scheduled during the Jan. 21-24 gathering in Washington, D.C.

Davis said his selection caps a strong year for PRISM Florida, where he helped shepherd the organization’s first-ever bill (HB 331) into the Legislature. The measure, sponsored by Tampa Democratic Rep. Dianne Hart, would restore local oversight over reproductive health and HIV/AIDS instruction, undoing changes enacted under a 2023 expansion to Florida’s “Parental Rights in Education” law, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics.

Davis’ workshop draws directly from that work and aims to train LGBTQ youth, families and advocates in how local boards operate, how public comment can shape decisions and how communities can mobilize around issues like book access, inclusive classrooms and student safety.

“School boards are where the real battles over student safety, book access, and inclusive classrooms are happening,” Davis said. “I’m honored to bring this training to Creating Change and help our community build the skills to show up, speak out, and win — especially as PRISM advances legislation like HB 331 that returns power to our local communities.”

Davis’ profile has grown in recent years, during which he jumped from working on the campaigns and legislative teams of lawmakers like Hart and Miami Gardens Democratic Sen. Shevrin Jones to working in key roles for organizations like America Votes, PRISM and SAVE.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, founded in 1973, is one of the nation’s oldest LGBTQ advocacy organizations. It focuses on advancing civil rights through federal policy work, grassroots engagement and leadership development.