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Life atop China’s car market starting to look shaky for BYD

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Life at the top is proving complex for China’s leading automaker, and there are fresh challenges on the horizon.

BYD Co.’s monthly sales have stagnated of late and with the summer months being a traditionally slower time for consumer purchases, that trajectory isn’t expected to reverse any time soon. 

Discounting is also now being looked sternly upon by Beijing, with China last week pledging to rein in “irrational competition” in the electric vehicle sector, reflecting authorities’ wish to tackle the deflationary price wars that are threatening economic and industrial growth.

Some of BYD’s international forays are also proving more challenging than expected, raising the question, is China’s No. 1 automaker on shaky ground?

The Shenzhen-based behemoth currently looks like it will undershoot its annual sales target for 2025, in what would be a rare miss after a multi-year bull run. The number of electric and hybrid vehicles BYD needs to sell each month through December has hit 560,000 units, in excess of levels it could hope to achieve typically in a single month. The most vehicles BYD has ever sold in a month was just shy of 515,000, in December last year.

Analysts are now doubting whether BYD can hit 5.5 million units in 2025. Consensus estimates continue to be downgraded.

Deutsche Bank AG earlier this month said it now expects 5 million in wholesales, or deliveries to dealers, for this year, comprised of 4 million domestic units and 1 million overseas, while Morgan Stanley last month lowered its projection to 5.3 million, pointing to a smaller number of new models. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Joanne Chen says BYD will need to sacrifice some profit and maintain its hefty discounting in the second half if it wants to stay on track.

“Regulatory scrutiny will temper direct cuts to vehicle sticker prices but competition isn’t going away and retail promotions are still needed to sustain sales momentum,” she said. “New model roll outs and steady tech upgrade are also crucial.”

Bing Yuan, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, said many market watchers now realistically expect sales of around 5 million. “My sense is that is the consensus,” she said.

Stripping out overseas and commercial sales, BYD’s core car deliveries in China are shrinking. In June, they slipped 8% year-on-year as vehicles from brands like Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Xpeng Inc. and Xiaomi Corp. won over buyers. HSBC Holdings Plc data show that Geely was the largest gainer of market share in the first half, while BYD was among the biggest losers.

Overseas sales are faring better and those are looking on target to reach BYD’s forecast of 800,000. Indeed, BYD is already almost 60% of the way there. But while higher margin international sales will help BYD offset aggressive domestic discounting, some foreign markets are presenting new difficulties.

BYD has grand plans for Saudi Arabia, for example, hoping to triple its footprint after Tesla Inc. entered the country. But EVs account for just over 1% of total car sales in the kingdom, with high costs, sparse charging infrastructure and extreme temperatures challenging EV adoption.

India, a potentially huge market, has meanwhile consistently blocked BYD’s efforts to expand and despite rapid growth from a low base in Europe, there are substantial tariff headwinds and increasing competition from legacy automakers that already have consumers’ trust, not to mention more extensive after-sales networks.

At home, regulatory scrutiny has also intensified around BYD as it continues to be at the fore of an EV price war. In late May, it slashed prices by as much as 34%, triggering renewed sector-wide discounts. Its moves were later discouraged in a veiled warning by the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece the People’s Daily, which slammed the “rat-race competition.”

Whether Beijing can actually stop price discounting by a privately held company is a point of debate.

Tianlei Huang, a China program coordinator at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said authorities may resort to administrative tools such as price reviews or cost investigations to establish a de facto price floor, or coordinate a concerted capacity reduction among leading EV makers, although he acknowledged those measures won’t be easy.

Regardless, BYD must be careful. As the company gears up to release first-half results later next month and July sales data within weeks, analysts will have their spreadsheets at the ready, waiting to see whether those 2025 targets look even further in the distance.



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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Macron warns EU may hit China with tariffs over trade surplus

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French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.

“I’m trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus isn’t sustainable because they’re killing their own clients, notably by importing hardly anything from us any more,” Macron told Les Echos newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

“If they don’t react, in the coming months we Europeans will be obliged to take strong measures and decouple, like the US, like for example tariffs on Chinese products,” he said, adding that he had discussed the matter with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Macron has just returned from a three-day state visit in China, where he pressed for more investment as Paris seeks to recalibrate its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. France’s goods trade deficit with China reached around €47 billion ($54.7 billion) last year, according to the French Treasury. Meanwhile, China’s goods trade surplus with the EU swelled to almost $143 billion in the first half of 2025, a record for any six-month period, according to data released by China earlier this year.

Tensions between France and China escalated last year after Paris backed the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing retaliated by imposing minimum price requirements on French cognac, sparking fears among pork and dairy producers that they could be targeted next.

‘Life or Death’

Macron said the US approach to China was “inappropriate” and had worsened Europe’s position by diverting Chinese goods toward the EU market.

“Today, we’re stuck between the two, and it’s a question of life or death for European industry,” Macron said, while noting that Germany — Europe’s biggest economy — doesn’t entirely share France’s stance.

In addition to Europe needing to become more competitive, the European Central Bank too has a role to play in strengthening the EU’s single market, Macron said, arguing that monetary policy should take growth and jobs into account, not just inflation, he said.

He also said the ECB’s decision to continue selling the government bonds it holds risks pushing up long-term interest rates and weighing on economic activity.

“Europe must — and wants to — remain a zone of monetary stability and credible investment,” Macron said.



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