Connect with us

Business

How much is AI really replacing jobs? Goldman Sachs looks under the hood and has 3 takeaways to defuse the hype

Published

on


There’s a lot of speculation, including in the pages of Fortune Intelligence, about the impact that artificial intelligence will have on the jobs of the future. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is on the case, leading a team that draws from a breadth of industry surveys, government data, and proprietary analysis to produce an AI Adoption Tracker.

For the second quarter of 2025, Hatzius’ team found “notable progress” in AI adoption, with 9.2% of U.S. companies using AI to produce goods or services, compared to 7.4% in the first quarter. The report also delivers a nuanced picture, finding that while generative AI and related technologies are rapidly reshaping corporate investment and productivity, their effect on employment is evolving at a slower, subtler pace.

Here are three takeaways from the Goldman AI Adoption Tracker.

1. Limited labor market disruption (so far)

Despite a surge in AI adoption across U.S. firms, the research note found overall labor market outcomes remain largely unaffected for now. Simply put, “AI’s impact on the labor market remains limited and there is no sign of a significant impact on most labor market outcomes.” This contrasts with signs that the tech sector is cutting jobs exposed to AI, and with several prominent CEOs warning AI could displace upward of 50% of the white-collar workforce.

Specifically, Goldman says key metrics such as job growth, wage gains, unemployment rates, and layoff rates in AI-exposed industries have shown little statistically significant deviation from less exposed sectors. AI-related job postings now account for 24% of all IT openings, but still represent just 1.5% of total job postings, indicating that while technology roles are adapting, the broader workforce shift is gradual.

Notably, the unemployment rate for AI-exposed occupations has now reconciled with the wider economy, refuting early fears of mass displacement. There have been no recent layoff announcements explicitly citing AI as the cause, further underscoring the current containment of disruption to specific functions rather than entire industries.

Goldman Sachs

On the other hand, the analysts noted, payrolls growth continues to underperform in occupations where AI is having an anecdotal impact, as with the notable example of telephone call centers. This suggests that something is happening that is only being whispered about. Still, it’s early days.

2. Productivity gains concentrated, but significant

Goldman says AI’s influence on productivity where it’s already been deployed is pronounced. Hatzius’ team cited academic studies and company anecdotes indicating generative AI adoption delivers, on average, a 23%–29% boost to labor productivity. The estimates vary, with academic studies generating a median of 16% and average of 23%, while company anecdotes produce a median of 30% and average of 29%. Still, this suggests tangible efficiency improvements for early adopters.

Sectors leveraging generative AI most actively—information, finance, and professional services—are seeing the largest increases in productivity as firms move from experimentation to integrating AI into their core workflows.

Business leaders and economists expect that as adoption deepens and more organizations build AI into their infrastructure, the aggregate productivity impact will become more visible in macroeconomic data.

3. The AI employment story: still in its early chapters

A recurring theme in the Goldman Sachs analysis is that the full employment effect of AI is still developing. While AI-related openings are growing, especially in IT, there is also an uptick in demand for roles such as machine-learning engineers and AI researchers. Surveys reflect that a substantial share of companies are planning to hire for these skillsets.

Productivity improvements may eventually widen to more industries, and “AI intensity” (share of roles heavily using AI) remains highest in information-technology and professional-service sectors, signaling where future employment shifts might first materialize.

The report said the current impact of AI on the labor market is limited, but the seeds of transformation are being sown. Increases in corporate AI adoption, especially among large and medium-sized firms, point toward future productivity and role changes. But for now, fears of widespread AI-induced job loss appear overstated—at least until broader, deeper integration of the technology with business processes occurs.

As companies continue to scale AI and as supporting infrastructure matures, opportunities and challenges will both be amplified, warranting close observation by policymakers, business leaders, and workers alike.

Goldman Sachs declined to comment further.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Hegseth likens strikes on alleged drug boats to post-9/11 war on terror

Published

on



Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended strikes on alleged drug cartel boats during remarks Saturday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, saying President Donald Trump has the power to take military action “as he sees fit” to defend the nation.

Hegseth dismissed criticism of the strikes, which have killed more than 80 people and now face intense scrutiny over concerns that they violated international law. Saying the strikes are justified to protect Americans, Hegseth likened the fight to the war on terror following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

“If you’re working for a designated terrorist organization and you bring drugs to this country in a boat, we will find you and we will sink you. Let there be no doubt about it,” Hegseth said during his keynote address at the Reagan National Defense Forum. “President Trump can and will take decisive military action as he sees fit to defend our nation’s interests. Let no country on earth doubt that for a moment.”

The most recent strike brings the death toll of the campaign to at least 87 people. Lawmakers have sought more answers about the attacks and their legal justification, and whether U.S. forces were ordered to launch a follow-up strike following a September attack even after the Pentagon knew of survivors.

Though Hegseth compared the alleged drug smugglers to Al-Qaida terrorists, experts have noted significant differences between the two foes and the efforts to combat them.

Hegseth’s remarks came after the Trump administration released its new national security strategy, one that paints European allies as weak and aims to reassert America’s dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

During the speech, Hegseth also discussed the need to check China’s rise through strength instead of conflict. He repeated Trump’s vow to resume nuclear testing on an equal basis as China and Russia — a goal that has alarmed many nuclear arms experts. China and Russia haven’t conducted explosive tests in decades, though the Kremlin said it would follow the U.S. if Trump restarted tests.

The speech was delivered at the Reagan National Defense Forum at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in California, an event which brings together top national security experts from around the country. Hegseth used the visit to argue that Trump is Reagan’s “true and rightful heir” when it comes to muscular foreign policy.

By contrast, Hegseth criticized Republican leaders in the years since Reagan for supporting wars in the Middle East and democracy-building efforts that didn’t work. He also blasted those who have argued that climate change poses serious challenges to military readiness.

“The war department will not be distracted by democracy building, interventionism, undefined wars, regime change, climate change, woke moralizing and feckless nation building,” he said.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

US debt crisis: Most likely fix is severe austerity triggered by a fiscal calamity

Published

on



One way or another, U.S. debt will stop expanding unsustainably, but the most likely outcome is also among the most painful, according to Jeffrey Frankel, a Harvard professor and former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Publicly held debt is already at 99% of GDP and is on track to hit 107% by 2029, breaking the record set after the end of World War II. Debt service alone is more than $11 billion a week, or 15% of federal spending in the current fiscal year.

In a Project Syndicate op-ed last week, Frankel went down the list of possible debt solutions: faster economic growth, lower interest rates, default, inflation, financial repression, and fiscal austerity. 

While faster growth is the most appealing option, it’s not coming to the rescue due to the shrinking labor force, he said. AI will boost productivity, but not as much as would be needed to rein in U.S. debt.

Frankel also said the previous era of low rates was a historic anomaly that’s not coming back, and default isn’t plausible given already-growing doubts about Treasury bonds as a safe asset, especially after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff shocker.

Relying on inflation to shrink the real value of U.S. debt would be just as bad as a default, and financial repression would require the federal government to essentially force banks to buy bonds with artificially low yields, he explained.

“There is one possibility left: severe fiscal austerity,” Frankel added.

How severe? A sustainable U.S. debt trajectory would entail elimination of nearly all defense spending or almost all non-defense discretionary outlays, he estimated.

For the foreseeable future, Democrats are unlikely to slash top programs, while Republicans are likely to use any fiscal breathing room to push for more tax cuts, Frankel said.

“Eventually, in the unforeseeable future, austerity may be the most likely of the six possible outcomes,” he warned. “Unfortunately, it will probably come only after a severe fiscal crisis. The longer it takes for that reckoning to arrive, the more radical the adjustment will need to be.”

The austerity forecast echoes an earlier note from Oxford Economics, which said the expected insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds by 2034 will serve as a catalyst for fiscal reform.

In Oxford’s view, lawmakers will seek to prevent a fiscal crisis in the form of a precipitous drop in demand for Treasury bonds, sending rates soaring.

But that’s only after lawmakers try to take the more politically expedient path by allowing Social Security and Medicare to tap general revenue that funds other parts of the federal government.

“However, unfavorable fiscal news of this sort could trigger a negative reaction in the US bond market, which would view this as a capitulation on one of the last major political openings for reforms,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote. “A sharp upward repricing of the term premium for longer-dated bonds could force Congress back into a reform mindset.”



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

The $124 trillion Great Wealth Transfer is intensifying as inheritance jumps to a new record

Published

on



Nearly $300 billion was inherited this year as the Great Wealth Transfer picks up speed, showering family members with immense windfalls.

According to the latest UBS Billionaire Ambitions Report, 91 heirs inherited a record-high $297.8 billion in 2025, up 36% from a year ago despite fewer inheritors.

“These heirs are proof of a multi-year wealth transfer that’s intensifying,” Benjamin Cavalli, head of Strategic Clients & Global Connectivity at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in the report.

Western Europe led the way with 48 individuals inheriting $149.5 billion. That includes 15 members of two “German pharmaceutical families,” with the youngest just 19 years old and the oldest at 94.

Meanwhile, 18 heirs in North America got $86.5 billion, and 11 in South East Asia received $24.7 billion, UBS said.

This year’s wealth transfer lifted the number of multi-generational billionaires to 860, who have total assets of $4.7 trillion, up from 805 with $4.2 trillion in 2024.

Wealth management firm Cerulli Associates estimated last year that $124 trillion worldwide will be handed over through 2048, dubbing it the Great Wealth Transfer. More than half of that amount will come from high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth people.

Among billionaires, UBS expects they will likely transfer about $6.9 trillion by 2040, with at least $5.9 trillion of that being passed to children, either directly or indirectly.

While the Great Wealth Transfer appears to be accelerating, it may not turn into a sudden flood. Tim Gerend, CEO of financial planning giant Northwestern Mutual, told Fortune’s Amanda Gerut recently that it will unfold more gradually and with greater complexity

“I think the wealth transfer isn’t going to be just a big bang,” he said. “It’s not like, we just passed peak age 65 and now all the money is going to move.”

Of course, millennials and Gen Zers with rich relatives aren’t the only ones who sat to reap billions. More entrepreneurs also joined the ranks of the super rich.

In 2025, 196 self-made billionaires were newly minted with total wealth of $386.5 billion. That trails only the record year of 2021 and is up from last year, which saw 161 self-made individuals with assets of $305.6 billion.

But despite the hype over the AI boom and startups with astronomical valuations, some of the new U.S. billionaires come from a range of industries.

UBS highlighted Ben Lamm, cofounder of genetics and bioscience company Colossal; Michael Dorrell, cofounder and CEO of infrastructure investment firm Stonepeak; as well as Bob Pender and Mike Sabel, cofounders of LNG exporter Venture Global.

“A fresh generation of billionaires is steadily emerging,” UBS said. “In a highly uncertain time for geopolitics and economics, entrepreneurs are innovating at scale across a range of sectors and markets.”



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.