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There’s a ‘growing risk’ Fed will have to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December to ‘catch up’ to a sagging labor market, Oxford Economics

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Amid a cloudy outlook, they’ll reveal either good economic fortune or a downturn. 

On the one hand, interest rate cuts could mean the Federal Reserve has finally deemed the threat of inflation has passed and economic forecasts stable again after the tariff-induced uncertainty. That is the outcome investors and President Donald Trump would most welcome. But until any of that uncertainty subsides, interest rates will remain where they are. 

There is, however, one scenario, in which rate cuts aren’t a sign of eagerly awaited relief but of the start of a long-feared downturn. In the event the labor market suddenly starts to go south, the Fed would have to step in and cut rates. In that case, investors and the president would get more than they bargained for: an interest rate cut of 50 basis points. 

A rate cut of that size, double the usual 25 basis points, would only come if unemployment spiked and companies stopped hiring later in the year. The Fed started its holding pattern, largely worried Trump’s tariffs would reignite inflation. But in recent weeks, there has been a greater focus on unemployment—the other side of its dual mandate. Investors, too, are worried the labor market may be teetering. 

“We think the risk is growing that the first cut is 50 basis points,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics still forecasts a single rate cut of 25 basis points in December. But the fact the firm is entertaining a jumbo rate cut points to genuine fears the bottom may fallout from the labor market quickly, even dramatically. It’s the nature of the labor market slump that matters more than anything else. 

If it is “unexpected in a shock kind of way, that would motivate a 50-basis-point reduction at the end of the year,” said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “You would need things to go bad really quickly towards the end of the year for that to happen.”

If the bad news is swift and severe, then the Fed will have to scramble. 

“We do see a growing risk that the first move is larger, i.e. 50 basis points, because we think the Fed at that point may have some catching up to do” with the labor market, Vanden Houten told Fortune

The current labor market is remarkably stable despite the market turbulence that surrounded the original tariff announcements in April. Under the surface, though, there are some subtle changes indicating it is loosening. In June, the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That headline number—which came alongside 147,000 new jobs—belied slowing momentum in the job market. Private sector jobs grew at the lowest level in eight months; 130,000 people dropped out of the labor force; and individuals out of a job were staying unemployed for longer. 

Those nuances don’t point to a labor market in imminent danger, but one that is shifting beneath the economy’s feet.

“The numbers aren’t horrible, allowing the Fed to focus more on inflation right now,” Vanden Houten said. “The latest data allow the Fed to breathe a little easier, although there were definitely some quirks in the June employment data that probably made the labor market look a little better than it is.”

Economic growth would have to significantly underperform expectations and hiring levels would need to be below 50,000 a month in October and November for the economic picture to worsen quickly enough to force a 50 basis point cut, according to Torres. 

The possibilities of both happening are unlikely at the moment. Investors expect growth and the labor market to slow later in the year, but not to those levels. Wall Street firms and economists lowered their forecasts for year-end growth and raised those for inflation, mainly citing tariffs. Some have revisited those projections, lowering them further, as Trump’s looming tariff deadline looms. 

That said, markets have remained steady amid a renewal of Trump’s tariff whirlwinds. Markets seem to have largely already priced Wall Street’s lower forecasts for the rest of 2025. In fact, markets were largely unmoved earlier this week as Trump announced a series of new and possibly definitive tariffs on a host of countries—all of which came after the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high at the start of July.



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Binance has been proudly nomadic for years. A new announcement suggests it’s chosen an HQ

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For years, Binance has dodged questions about where it plans to establish a corporate headquarters. On Monday, the world’s largest crypto exchange made an announcement that indicates it has chosen a location: Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

In its announcement, Binance reported that it has secured three global financial licenses within Abu Dhabi Global Market, a special economic zone inside the Emirati city. The licenses regulate three different prongs of the exchange’s business: its exchange, clearinghouse, and broker dealer services. The three regulated entities are named Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, respectively.

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, declined to say whether Abu Dhabi is now Binance’s global headquarters. “But for all intents and purposes, if you look at the regulatory sphere, I think the global regulators are more concerned of where we are regulated on a global basis,” he said, adding that Abu Dhabi Global Market is where his crypto exchange’s “global platform” will be governed.

A company spokesperson declined to add more to Teng’s comments, but did not deny Fortune’s assertion that Binance appears to have chosen Abu Dhabai as its headquarters.

Corporate governance

The Abu Dhabi announcement suggests that Binance, which has for years taken pride in branding itself as a company with no fixed location, is bowing to the practical considerations that go with being a major financial firm—and the corporate governance obligations that entails.

When Changpeng Zhao, the cofounder and former CEO of Binance, launched the company in 2017, he initially established the exchange in Hong Kong. But, weeks after he registered Binance in the city, China banned cryptocurrency trading, and Zhao moved his nascent trading platform. Binance has since been itinerant. “Wherever I sit is going to be the Binance office,” Zhao said in 2020.

The location of a company’s headquarters impacts its tax obligations and what regulations it needs to follow. In 2023, after Binance reached a landmark $4.3 billion settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, Zhao stepped down as CEO and pleaded guilty to failing to implement an effective anti-money laundering program.

Teng took over and promised to implement the corporate structures—like a board of directors—that are the norm for companies of Binance’s size. Teng, who now shares the CEO role with the newly appointed Yi He, oversaw the appointment of Binance’s first board in April 2024. And he’s repeatedly telegraphed that his crypto exchange is focused on regulatory compliance.

Binance already has a strong footprint in the Emirates. It has a crypto license in Dubai, received a $2 billion investment from an Emirati venture fund in March, and, that same month, said it employed 1,000 employees in the country. 



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Leaders in Congress outperform rank-and-file lawmakers on stock trades by up to 47% a year

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Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there’s a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership.

According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”



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Macron warns EU may hit China with tariffs over trade surplus

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French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.

“I’m trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus isn’t sustainable because they’re killing their own clients, notably by importing hardly anything from us any more,” Macron told Les Echos newspaper in an interview published on Sunday.

“If they don’t react, in the coming months we Europeans will be obliged to take strong measures and decouple, like the US, like for example tariffs on Chinese products,” he said, adding that he had discussed the matter with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Macron has just returned from a three-day state visit in China, where he pressed for more investment as Paris seeks to recalibrate its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. France’s goods trade deficit with China reached around €47 billion ($54.7 billion) last year, according to the French Treasury. Meanwhile, China’s goods trade surplus with the EU swelled to almost $143 billion in the first half of 2025, a record for any six-month period, according to data released by China earlier this year.

Tensions between France and China escalated last year after Paris backed the EU’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing retaliated by imposing minimum price requirements on French cognac, sparking fears among pork and dairy producers that they could be targeted next.

‘Life or Death’

Macron said the US approach to China was “inappropriate” and had worsened Europe’s position by diverting Chinese goods toward the EU market.

“Today, we’re stuck between the two, and it’s a question of life or death for European industry,” Macron said, while noting that Germany — Europe’s biggest economy — doesn’t entirely share France’s stance.

In addition to Europe needing to become more competitive, the European Central Bank too has a role to play in strengthening the EU’s single market, Macron said, arguing that monetary policy should take growth and jobs into account, not just inflation, he said.

He also said the ECB’s decision to continue selling the government bonds it holds risks pushing up long-term interest rates and weighing on economic activity.

“Europe must — and wants to — remain a zone of monetary stability and credible investment,” Macron said.



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