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Last Call for 7.9.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Supporters of legalizing recreational cannabis in Florida have taken a major step toward placing the issue back on the ballot, submitting more than 600,000 verified petition signatures for a proposed 2026 constitutional amendment.

State records show that as of this week, the political committee Smart & Safe Florida has submitted 613,206 valid petition signatures.

While the committee still needs to reach the 880,062-signature threshold to make the statewide ballot, it has already surpassed the minimum needed to trigger mandatory review by the Florida Supreme Court and the Financial Impact Estimating Conference.

The initiative, titled “Adult Personal Use of Marijuana,” would allow adults 21 and over to possess, purchase and use pot for non-medical purposes. It includes added safeguards not present in the 2024 version, such as prohibitions on marketing to children and bans on public smoking and vaping — two key issues Gov. Ron DeSantis and other opponents previously seized upon.

The previous ballot measure, known as Amendment 3, drew 56% support in the 2024 election, falling short of Florida’s 60% threshold for constitutional amendments.

That effort saw a record-setting $150 million spent in support of the effort, much of it from Trulieve, the state’s largest medical marijuana operator. But it faced fierce opposition from DeSantis, First Lady Casey DeSantis and Attorney General James Uthmeier, then the Governor’s Chief of Staff, who chaired a political committee focused on fighting the measure.

Smart & Safe Florida is facing even more obstacles this time around. In federal court, the group is challenging a newly enacted state law that restricts ballot initiatives by capping volunteer petition circulators to 25 forms each and barring out-of-state participants.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

—”Immigration, Jeffrey Epstein, Ukraine: Donald Trump’s moves roil MAGA base” via Natalie Allison of The Washington Post

—“Supreme Court refuses to allow Florida to enforce immigration law” via Ann E. Marimow of The Washington Post

—”Is Pam Bondi going to get fired?” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—“‘People are going to die’: A malnutrition crisis looms in the wake of USAID cuts” via Kate Knibbs of WIRED

—”The problem with ‘move to higher ground’” via Zoë Schlanger of The Atlantic

—”Student loans are about to get worse” via Abdallah Fayyad of Vox

—”David Jolly rolls out endorsements from ‘Democratic powerhouses’ Gwen Graham, Donna Shalala, Karen Thurman” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—“Stephanie Murphy declares candidacy for Orange County Mayor” via Stephen Hudak of the Orlando Sentinel

—”AIF poll: Florida GOP holds edge on the issues and at the ballot box” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics

—”Weather experts say accuracy of storm forecasts will suffer under budget cuts” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix

Quote of the Day

“He’s a good Governor. And whatever personal differences he had, or whatever deficiencies he thought I had, are long past my thinking about them.”

Susie Wiles, on Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Grab your local Party Chair a Blood Orange, because Florida Republicans’ advantage on the issues and at the polls is still growing according to new polls

Pour a Boulevardier for Palm Beach Republican Rep. Meg Weinberger for her role in designating a stretch of road in Palm Beach County as President Donald J. Trump Boulevard.

The Supreme Court is serving a Simmer Down to Attorney General James Uthmeier, telling him Florida cannot enforce its own immigration law.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Messi, Miami back at it tonight

Leo Messi and Inter Miami resume play in the Major League Soccer season with a visit to Foxborough, Mass., to face the New England Revolution tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+).

Inter Miami played its first game back from the FIFA Club World Cup on Saturday, a 4-1 win at Montreal. Messi scored a brace in the victory.

 Miami advanced to the knockout round of the Club World Cup before losing 4-0 to the defending European champions, Paris-Saint Germain, last Sunday. 

Tonight’s game marks the first meeting of the season between Inter Miami and the Revolution. Miami comes into the match in sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings while New England is in 11th, eight points behind Miami. With months to go in the regular season, Miami has time to climb in the table, but Messi and company have not maintained the pace that they showed last season when they won the Supporters’ Shield with the top regular season record in the league. 

As for Messi, he still delivers moments of brilliance. In 14 matches in MLS play this season, the 38-year-old has delivered 12 goals and six assists. Last season, he scored 21 goals in 22 MLS matches. He still has the magic but the question remains about how the veteran team around him will handle the long season.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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