Business

CEO spends 1.83 million Amex points to pay surprise tariff bill

Published

5 months ago

July 1, 2025

When a tariff bill for almost $11,000 arrived without warning, Robert Keeley reached for one of his last financial lifelines and cashed in 1.83 million American Express reward points to pay it.

“It’s like a needle pin holding back a crack in the dam,” said Keeley, who runs Keeley Electronics, a guitar-pedal manufacturer with 35 employees in Oklahoma City.

Keeley’s scramble is part of a broader reckoning for America’s smaller businesses, which are being whipsawed by volatile trade policies. Another blow could land on July 9, the deadline President Donald Trump has imposed on other countries to secure trade deals with the U.S. to avoid higher tariffs.

The stakes are especially high for manufacturers with fewer than 100 employees, which account for 93% of the roughly 240,000 U.S. industrial firms. Unlike global conglomerates, these companies often lack the cash reserves, lobbying muscle or supply-chain flexibility to absorb steep tariff hikes or pivot production.

Among those feeling the pressure are a tight-knit group of guitar-pedal manufacturers like Keeley, who run boutique businesses that build the stomp boxes that shape the sound of music. The niche industry offers a window into the economic toll of tariff whiplash on smaller firms.

Painful Twist

To survive, pedal builders are doing something unusual in a competitive business: turning to one another for help.

The alliance was started by Julie Robbins, 46, chief executive officer of EarthQuaker Devices in Akron, Ohio. To avoid layoffs among her 35 workers, Robbins tapped the company’s credit line. But she fears that strategy won’t hold and is considering moving some production overseas — a painful twist, given the tariffs were meant to bring jobs home.

Trump, speaking last week at the NATO summit in The Hague, said the levies are spurring manufacturers to reshore production. “Factories are being built because they don’t want to pay the tariffs,” he said. And some large companies have promised to invest in domestic manufacturing. Apple Inc. alone plans to spend more than $500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years.

But small manufacturers tend not to have the deep pockets or flexibility needed to rebuild supply chains. Many, like EarthQuaker, rely on imported components. The company sources circuit boards, resistors and transistors from China for pedals used by bands including the Black Keys and Guided By Voices.

In early May, as tariff rates spiked, nearly 50 people joined the second meeting of the Pedal Builders Support Group, double the turnout of its inaugural call. The rules were clear: no talk of pricing or anything that could be considered collusion. One participant joked that the group sounded like a mini-OPEC.

“OPEC jokes are fine,” Robbins quipped.

The guest speaker that day was Shawn Phetteplace, campaigns director at Main Street Alliance, a lobbying group for small-business owners. He described how Trump’s first-term trade team included some moderate voices. Today’s administration, he said, is “much more kind of economically nationalist.”

Funds Gone

Soon, the conversation turned personal.

Jon Cusack, 55, runs a pedal manufacturer in Holland, Michigan, that builds delay, reverb and other stomp boxes for his brands and other firms. He said he spent $200,000 on inventory before tariffs took effect, draining his savings.

“I’ve gotten to the point where my slush funds are all gone, and I still am facing several tariff bills coming up,” said Cusack, whose 30-person company had revenue of $3.9 million last year. “Can we survive three months, six months, you know, a year? My next step is to mortgage the house, and I really don’t want to do that.”

It’s unusual for rivals to share their struggles with one another, but members of the support group are all dealing with the same problem and are part of a tight-knit community, said Zoom participant Josh Scott, who owns Kansas City-based JHS Pedals. He employs 42 workers and had about $10 million of revenue last year.

Scott, 43, who also runs a YouTube channel popular with guitar players, has used his platform to explain how tariffs work. He wrote a recent Substack post reminding consumers that “American businesses pay the tariff” — a cost that eventually gets passed along to customers.

In mid-May, Robbins traveled to Washington to testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, telling lawmakers that “without immediate relief from the tariffs and ensuing trade war, U.S. manufacturing companies like mine will not survive the summer.” She founded EarthQuaker with her husband, musician Jamie Stillman, in 2004.

She told the committee that before this year’s tariffs she bought blank printed circuit boards from China for $1.40 each, compared with $20.70 to $31.19 for domestic alternatives.

“That is not a viable option and would push our prices up far beyond what the market will bear,” she said. “And that is just one of the components that we use.”

During the Pedal Builders Support Group’s next Zoom meeting, EveAnna Manley, president of Manley Laboratories Inc., shared her own cost-cutting tactics. Her Chino, California, company makes pre-amplifiers, equalizers, microphones and other equipment for recording studios.

“We put all our employees down to 30 hours a week, and that’s the baseline they can stay at and still keep their health care,” said Manley, 56. With the factory now only open Monday to Wednesday instead of five days a week “we can save a few dollars on air conditioning,” she said.

Keeley shared his own story in the group’s message thread, explaining how he used Amex credit-card points to pay May and June tariff bills totaling $10,987.48 on circuit boards from Golden Shine Electronics (Weng Yuan) Co. in China and other imported components shipped via DHL.

“I wanted to share the only ‘play’ I had in combating the tariffs,” Keeley, 55, wrote the group in mid-June.

At a follow-up Zoom meeting the next week, frustrations boiled over. For nearly two hours, participants exchanged ideas on how to raise awareness about the impact of tariffs on small U.S. manufacturers.

“They are just convinced that we can just start building transistors and resistors and inductors and capacitors,” Cusack said. “I’m supposed to be able to become an expert in every single one of those fields and manufacture all of my own products? They don’t understand what it takes to do all of that.”

Robbins agreed that the perception gap has made it harder to get traction with lawmakers and the public.

“I don’t think any of us are willing to go down without a fight,” she said. “And I think we all view this as, you know, a threat to our survival.”

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Business

Stocks: Facing a vast wave of incoming liquidity, the S&P 500 prepares to surf to a new record high

Published

28 minutes ago

December 5, 2025

Jace Porter

The S&P 500 index ticked up 0.3% yesterday, its eighth straight upward trading session. It is now less than half a percentage point away from its record high, and futures were pointing marginally up again this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures were even more optimistic, up 0.39% before the open in New York. The VIX “fear” index (which measures volatility) has sunk 12.6% this month, indicating that investors seem to have settled in for a calm, quiet, risk-on holiday season.

They have reason to be happy. Washington is preparing a wave of incoming liquidity that is likely to generate fresh demand for equities.

For instance, the CME FedWatch index shows an 87% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate cut next week, delivering a new round of cheaper money. Further cuts are expected in 2026.

Furthermore, Wall Street largely expects President Trump to announce that Kevin Hassett will replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell in May—and Hassett is widely regarded as a dove who will lean in favor of further rate cuts.

Elsewhere, the Fed has begun a series of “reserve management purchases,” a program in which the central bank will buy short-term T-bills—a move that will add more liquidity to markets generally.

Banks, brokers and trading platforms are also lining up to handle ‘Trump Accounts,’ into which the U.S. government will deposit $1,000 for every child. The trust fund can be invested in low-cost stock index trackers—a new source of investment demand coming online in the back half of 2026.

So it’s no surprise that nine major investment banks polled by the Financial Times expect stocks to rise in 2026; the average of their estimates is by 10%.

The Congressional Budget Office also estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add 0.9% to U.S. GDP next year largely because it allows companies to immediately deduct capital expenditures from their taxes—spurring a huge round of corporate spending.

With all that fresh money on the horizon, it’s clear why markets have shrugged off their worries about AI and Bitcoin. The only shock will be if the S&P fails to hit a new all-time high by the end of the year.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% this morning. The last session closed up 0.3%.
STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.33%.
China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%.
The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.19%.
India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.18%.
Bitcoin was flat at $93K.

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Business

Gen Z fears AI will upend careers. Can leaders change the narrative?

Published

59 minutes ago

December 5, 2025

Jace Porter

Good morning. Are you communicating the purpose of AI with your younger employees? According to new data from Harvard, most fear AI is going to take their jobs.

The Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School released the fall 2025 Harvard Youth Poll on Thursday, which finds a generation under profound strain. The nationwide survey of 2,040 Americans between 18 and 29 years old was conducted from Nov. 3–7. For these respondents, instability—financial, political, and interpersonal—has become a defining feature of daily life.

Young Americans see AI as more likely to take something away than to create something new. A majority (59%) see AI as a threat to their job prospects, more than immigration (31%) or outsourcing of jobs to other countries (48%).

Nearly 45% say AI will reduce opportunities, while only 14% expect gains. Another 17% foresee no change and 23% are unsure—and this holds across education levels and gender.

In addition, young people fear AI will undermine the meaning of work. About 41% say AI will make work less meaningful, compared to 14% who say it will make work more meaningful and 19% who think it will make no difference; a quarter (25%) say they are unsure.

In my conversations this year with CFOs and industry experts, many have said that the goal of using AI is to remove the mundane and manual aspects of work in order to create more meaningful, thought‑provoking opportunities. However, that message does not yet seem to be resonating with younger employees.

There is a lot of public discussion and widespread fear that AI will mostly take away jobs, but research by McKinsey Global Institute released last week offers a different perspective. According to the report, AI could, in theory, automate about 57% of U.S. work hours, but that figure measures the technical potential in tasks, not the inevitable loss of jobs, as Fortune reported.

Instead of mass replacement, McKinsey researchers argue the future of work will be defined by partnerships among people, agents, and robots—all powered by AI, but dependent on human guidance and organizational redesign. The primary reason AI will not result in half the workforce being immediately sidelined is the enduring relevance of human skills.

The Harvard poll also found young people have greater trust in AI for school and work tasks (52% overall, 63% among college students) and for learning or tutoring (48% overall, 63% among college students). But trust drops sharply for personal matters.

Young employees are considered AI natives. However, it is important to recognize that they have not experienced as many major technology shifts as more seasoned employees—like the dawn of the internet. It’s not to say that AI won’t change the workforce, but there’s still room and need for humans. It’s up to leaders to clearly communicate how AI will change roles, which tasks it will automate, and also provide ongoing training and guidance on how employees can still grow their careers in an AI-powered workplace.

Have a good weekend. See you on Monday.

SherylEstrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

Leaderboard

Fortune 500 Power Moves

Amanda Brimmer was appointed CFO of leasing advisory and head of corporatedevelopment at JLL (No. 188), a global commercial real estate and investment management company. Reporting to JLL CFO Kelly Howe, Brimmer will partner with business leaders globally to drive financial growth and performance. Brimmer brings more than two decades of experience from Boston Consulting Group, where she most recently served as managing director and senior partner.

Galagher Jeff was appointed EVP and CFO of ARKO Corp. (No. 488), one of the largest convenience store operators and fuel wholesalers in the U.S., effective Dec. 1. Jeff most recently served as EVP and CFO for Murphy USA, Inc. Before that, he spent nearly 15 years in senior and executive finance roles with retailers, including Dollar Tree Stores, Inc., Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and Walmart Stores, Inc., in addition to a decade-long career in finance and strategy consulting at organizations including KPMG and Ernst & Young.

Every Friday morning, the weekly Fortune 500 Power Moves column tracks Fortune 500 company C-suite shifts—see the most recent edition.

More notable moves this week:

Barbara Larson, CFO of SentinelOne, a cybersecurity company, will transition from her role to pursue an opportunity outside of the cybersecurity industry. Larson will continue to serve in her role through mid-January 2026. Upon her departure, Barry Padgett, chief growth officer, will serve as interim CFO. Barry has more than 25 years of experience in operational leadership at enterprise software companies, including SAP and Stripe. SentinelOne has initiated a search for its next CFO.

Jessica Ross was appointed CFO of GitLab Inc. (Nasdaq: GTLB), a DevSecOps platform, effective Jan. 15. Ross joins the company from Frontdoor, where she served as CFO. She has more than 25 years of experience in finance, accounting, and operational leadership at companies like Salesforce and Stitch Fix, and spent 12 years in public accounting at Arthur Andersen and Deloitte.

Michele Allen was appointed CFO of Jersey Mike’s Subs, a franchisor of fast-casual sandwich shops, effective Dec. 1. Allen succeeds Walter Tombs, who is retiring from Jersey Mike’s in January after 26 years with the company. Allen brings more than 25 years of financial leadership experience. Most recently, she served as CFO and head of strategy at Wyndham Hotels & Resorts. Allen began her career with Deloitte as an auditor.

Nick Tressler was appointed CFO of Vistagen (Nasdaq: VTGN), a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, effective Dec. 1. Tressler brings over 20 years of financial leadership experience. Most recently, he served as CFO of DYNEX Technologies, and before that, he was the CFO at American Gene Technologies, International, and Senseonics Holdings, Inc. Tressler has also held senior finance roles at several biopharmaceutical companies.

Mike Lenihan was appointed CFO of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NasdaqGS: TXRH), a restaurant company, effective Dec. 3. Keith Humpich, who served as interim CFO, was appointed chief accounting and financial services officer of the company. Lenihan has nearly 30 years of finance experience, including the past 22 years in the restaurant industry. Most recently, he served as the CFO at CKE Restaurants, Inc.

Big Deal

The ADP National Employment Report, released on Dec. 3, indicated that private-sector employment declined by 32,000 jobs in November. ADP found that job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025, while pay growth has continued its downward trend. In November, hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

ADP’s report is an independent measure of labor market conditions based on anonymized weekly payroll data from more than 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. The next major U.S. Jobs Report (Employment Situation) for November is scheduled for release on Dec. 16 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Going deeper

Here are four Fortune weekend reads:

Overheard

“The Fed no more ‘determines’ interest rates than a meteorologist determines the weather.”

—Alexander William Salter states in a Fortune opinion piece. Salter is a senior fellow with the Independent Institute and an economics professor in the Rawls College of Business at Texas Tech University. He writes: “The Fed doesn’t set interest rates. As powerful as America’s central bank is, it’s still just one player in a globe-spanning ocean of financial markets. Instead, the Fed sets targets for short-term interest rates. Those target rates indicate the Fed’s general monetary policy stance, but they are not the substance of monetary policy.”

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Business

Four key questions about OpenAI vs Google—the high-stakes tech matchup of 2026

Published

1 hour ago

December 5, 2025

Jace Porter

Hello, Tech Editor Alexei Oreskovic, pitching in for Allie. We’ve been enjoying some crisp blue-sky days here in San Francisco in true December fashion. For the folks at OpenAI however, the days have been red — Code Red.

In case you haven’t been following, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Monday declared a “Code Red” alert in a memo to employees, according to the Information and the Wall Street Journal. The alert, the highest level on OpenAI’s three-point scale, is essentially an all-hands-on-deck call to mobilize and defend against an imminent threat. That threat is Google and its latest version of the Gemini AI model, which competes with OpenAI’s GPT family of models, particularly its flagship ChatGPT product.

It’s a remarkable turn of events, almost exactly three years to the day that OpenAI released ChatGPT and put Google and the rest of the tech industry on the back foot. Now Google is on the ascent, hoping to turn OpenAI into MySpace. Of course, with its $500 billion valuation, OpenAI and its investors are not about to surrender.

So, as the two AI superpowers roll up their sleeves for what’s sure to be a 2026 slugfest, we thought it would be interesting to tap into the wisdom of Term Sheet readers and ask for your perspectives on some of the key questions of this critical moment in tech history. Send your thoughts directly to me or to Allie G.

How can a company like OpenAI turn a first-mover advantage into a sustainable and long-lasting business that doesn’t get bulldozed by giants with more resources and capital?

Is there a lesson—good or bad—from a first mover of the past (e.g. Netscape vs Microsoft; Blackberry vs iPhone) that OpenAI should heed?

What is the Google Achilles heel that OpenAI should exploit?

What is the single most important thing that OpenAI needs to execute on right now – and what is the best metric to measure its success?

And of course, what other important parts of this story should we be thinking about?

Fire away!

Alexei Oreskovic
X:@lexnfx
Email:alexei.oreskovic@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.

Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.Subscribe here.

Venture Deals

– 7AI, a Boston-based agentic cybersecurity platform, raised $130 million in Series A funding. Index Ventures led the round and was joined by Blackstone Innovations Investments, as well as existing seed investors Greylock, CRV, and Spark.

– Fact Base, a Tokyo-based manufacturing SaaS startup and maker of drawing management system ZUMEN, raised $28.5 million in Series C funding from Insight Partners.

– imper.ai, a New York City-based startup that prevents AI and cyber impersonation, emerged from stealth after raising $28 million in funding. Redpoint Ventures and Battery Ventures led the investment round and were joined by Maple VC, Vessy VC, and Cerca Partners.

– pH7 Technologies, a Vancouver, British Columbia-based metal extraction company, raised $25.6 million in initial Series B funding. Fine Structure Ventures led the round with strategic investment from BHP Ventures and was joined Energy & Environment Investment, Siteground, Gaingels Fund, and Calm Ventures, along with existing investors including TDK Ventures, Pangaea Ventures, Rhapsody Venture Partners, and BASF Venture Capital.

– Pine AI, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based startup that specializes in agentic AI for customer service applications, raised $25 million in Series A funding. Investors included Fortwest Capital.

– Lumia, an agentic AI security and governance platform, raised $18 million in seed funding. Team8 led the round and was joined by New Era.

– Multifactor, a San Francisco-based agentic AI security platform, raised $15 million in seed funding. Nexus Venture Partners led the round and was joined by Y Combinator, Taurus Ventures, Honeystone Ventures, Flex Capital, Pioneer Fund, Ritual Capital, and Liquid2 Ventures.

– Laigo Bio, a Utrecht, Netherlands-based biotech company specializing in novel membrane protein degradation, raised €11.5 million ($13.4 million) in seed funding. Kurma Partners and Curie Capital co-led the round and were joined by Argobio Studio, Angelini Ventures, Eurazeo, the Oncode Bridge Fund, ROM Utrecht Region, and Cancer Research Horizons.

– Helmet Security, a Washington, D.C.-based agentic AI communication security startup, emerged from stealth after raising $9 million from SYN Ventures and WhiteRabbit Ventures.

– Addis Energy, a Somerville, Mass.-based ammonia production technology developer, raised $8.3 million in seed funding. At One Ventures led the round and was joined by existing investors Engine Ventures and Pillar VC.

– Alinia AI, a Barcelona, Spain- and New York City-based startup that builds compliance tools for AI systems, raised $7.5 million in seed funding. Mouro Capital led the round and was joined by Speedinvest, Raise Ventures, and Precursor.

– BuiltAI, a London, U.K.-based financial modeling platform for commercial real estate investment, raised $6 million in seed funding. Work-Bench led the round and was joined by Lerer Hippeau, Timber Grove Ventures, Emerald Pine, and angel investors.

– Curvestone AI, a London, U.K.-based platform that reduces compound errors in automated workflows, raised $4 million seed funding. MTech Capital led the round and was joined by Boost Capital Partners, D2 Fund, and Portfolio Ventures.

– Govstream.ai, a Seattle-based startup building AI-native permitting tools for local governments, raised $3.6 million in seed funding. 47th Street Partners led the round and was joined by Nellore Capital, Ascend, Kevin Merritt, and Andreas Huber.

Private Equity

– Ares Management Corporation recapitalized MGT, a Tampa-based national technology and advisory solutions company serving state and local education institutions and governments, with a $350 million investment that values MGT at $1.25 billion. Existing investors include the Vistria Group, JPMorgan, and WhiteHorse Capital.

– TRP Infrastructure Services, an Arlington Capital Partners portfolio company, completed its acquisition of Corpus Christi, Texas-based Highway Barricades & Services, a provider of pavement marking and traffic control services. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– The Care Team, a Revelstoke Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired select hospice and palliative care operations from Traditions Health, a Tennessee-based hospice, palliative, and home health provider with operations in 16 states. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Inovara Group, an Ambienta portfolio company, acquired Guildford, U.K.-based IBL Lighting Limited, an LED engine design and architectural lighting provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.