Business

Mid-term vote holds key to Philippines riding out tariff-linked risks

Published

7 months ago

May 7, 2025

The Philippines’ May 12 midterm election is putting investors on alert for any changes to government policies, as the global trade war exposes weaknesses in one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

The vote to pick 12 senators, more than 300 congressmen and nearly 18,000 local officials comes as policymakers seek to boost investment and consumption against the backdrop of a more challenging external environment. It will also be a crucial test for both President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his estranged Vice President Sara Duterte, who are backing competing candidates.

“Investors are watching whether the elections will result in continuity that will ensure economic reforms,” said Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Services, a Manila-based consultancy. “The Philippines cannot afford to have political instability, especially during this time of global uncertainty.”

The economy expanded 5.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, slower than the 5.7% expansion forecast by analysts but marginally faster than the pace seen in the last quarter of 2024, according to data released Thursday. The government aims for growth of at least 6% this year after a slower-than-projected 5.7% expansion in 2024, though the economy is still outpacing most of Asia.

A Philippine trade delegation wrapped up initial talks with U.S. officials last week with more likely as Manila seeks to lower the Trump administration’s proposed 17% tariff. The planned levy is well below those threatened against most of Southeast Asia, including a 46% rate on Vietnam, and policymakers see the chance to win a competitive advantage—if they can continue domestic reforms.

“While the tariffs create opportunities to shift supply chains, EU investors remain cautious of long-term operational inefficiencies,” European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines President Paulo Duarte said. “To seize this strategic window, the government must focus on lowering operational costs and improving ease of doing business.”

The country’s young, English-speaking workforce is a big asset for the economy, but challenges abound, said Ebb Hinchliffe, executive director at the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines. They include red tape, infrastructure and connectivity, energy costs and regulatory unpredictability, he said, echoing worries that have haunted Philippine businesses for decades.

While the Philippines has enacted legislation to attract investors—including a measure that cuts corporate taxes and the removal of foreign ownership limits in sectors including renewable energy—businesses want more reforms. But a shaky political situation after the midterms could keep the government’s focus off much-needed changes.

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto last month withdrew a proposal that sought to increase capital gains, donor and estate taxes to 10% from 6%, citing ample tax collection in the past three months. The bill would generate roughly 300 billion pesos ($5.4 billion) in additional revenue over the next five years.

Winning lawmakers will have their work cut out for them when the new Congress convenes in July. Pending bills include a measure to ban raw mineral exports to spur the downstream mining industry, a plan heavily opposed by a local nickel industry association.

And awaiting Marcos’ signature is a bill reducing the stock transaction tax to 0.1% from 0.6% to make the country more attractive compared with Southeast Asian neighbors. But it will also subject foreign firms to a 25% tax on dollar-denominated bonds out of the Philippines.

The average return on local assets in a midterm election year has been negative 0.3%, based on polls running back to 1995, compared with 12% gains during presidential election years since then, according to Ritchie Ryan Teo, chief investment officer at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp.

“Enflamed disagreements between parties have occurred in past elections that have not derailed the capability for Congress to pass laws and budgets,” Teo said. “We are cautiously optimistic but this is definitely a space to watch.”

The outcome of the election is particularly critical for Duterte, as the 12 senators being elected will be among jurors for the vice president’s impeachment trial that starts in July.

“Businesses don’t seem to mind it as long as it does not spill over into their turf or their bottom line,” said Dereck Aw, a senior analyst at Control Risks. “If anything, some are even relieved that politicians are too busy feuding with each other to meddle in business, which the Philippine government has been known to do.”

Consumption, powered by remittances from Filipinos working abroad, who sent home a record $38.3 billion last year, accounts for about 70% of the country’s economic output. Manufacturing is less than 20%.

Amando Tetangco, a former central bank governor who now chairs top conglomerate SM Investments Corp., said a consumption-driven economy bodes well for the Philippines at a time of heightened global risks.

“This structure gives us a certain amount of protection. We are less vulnerable,” Tetangco said. “We may be less open than other countries (in terms of trade) but in this current environment it provides us some insulation from potential adverse effects of developments.”

The Philippines’ benchmark stock index has dropped 1% in the year through May 7, trailing the MSCI Asia Pacific index’s 5% gain. Local bonds have handed dollar-based investors a gain of 6.3%, while the peso is up around 4%.

“If you look at the last 20 years or so, we’ve had a lot of those political noises but the policy directions have remained largely the same,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in an interview. “What matters is that the political noise will not cause a reversal of what is otherwise good policy,” he said.

For Teresita Sy-Coson, whose family leads SM that has interests in banking, property and retail, the way forward is to shrug off politics. “We just continue with the business, we are not listening to the noise,” she said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Crypto wallets now feel a lot more like Venmo

Published

24 minutes ago

December 15, 2025

Jace Porter

Crypto wallets are having a moment. The latest example is Kalshi announcing an integration with Phantom to offer event contracts to the wallet’s 15 million users. While the prediction market angle is intriguing (these markets are a HUGE story right now), the news also highlights the light-speed advancements taking place in the wallet realm.

Consider how, just three years ago, the only thing you could do with Phantom was access the Solana blockchain. MetaMask, meanwhile, was limited to Ethereum. Sure, alternatives like Coinbase Wallet offered access to more assets but, like other wallets of the time, it suffered from a ghastly interface that required users to run a gauntlet of sub-nets, confusing gas fees, and more. The experience was miserable for crypto natives. For everyone else, it was nigh impossible.

Then something changed. After years of promises, developers finally succeeded in pushing the clunky technical elements to the background, while adding a host of practical features. The result has been an uptick in useful real-world applications, including Phantom’s Kalshi offering, and also in souped-up new offerings like Coinbase’s rebranded Base as well as Robinhood Wallet.

This new generation of wallets offers the best aspects of decentralized crypto by making the customers the ultimate custodians of their assets. At the same time, they offer interfaces that are starting to feel like Venmo or online banking apps—which should be table stakes for any of these products looking to break into the mainstream. The question now is where these wallets will fit in day-to-day life. Will they become the successor to web browsers, as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and others have predicted, or will they be something else entirely?

JP Richardson is the founder and CEO of Exodus, another leading wallet that recently added a suite of stablecoin payment tools. He told me the browser analogy doesn’t really fit, arguing wallets are better seen as a superior type of banking app—one that will be able to bridge disparate financial services. “We believe it should not be three apps, it should be one app. Why can’t you take your brokerage app, and tap and buy groceries?” he asked.

Trevor Traina, the founder of a wallet called Kresus, whose customers include Sotheby’s auction house, has another take. He believes the tools will have a much broader footprint. He sees a world where wallets are not just for managing our assets, but also become repositories for vital documents such as a will, insurance, or a law license.

The technology is certainly there to support Traina’s vision. That includes blockchains, which can supply a permanent and tamper-proof ledger, but also newer privacy tools like zero-knowledge proofs. Together, this tech provides a way to safeguard all of one’s personal data, while also being able to meet the constant need to show identification that modern life demands. All of this could get more interesting still if wallets like Sam Altman’s World App, which includes an anti-bot biometric layer, get more traction.

Now for the cold water: Just because you build it doesn’t mean they will come—or come anytime soon at least. I spoke with analyst James Wester, one of the shrewder observers of the crypto and fintech scene, and he pointed out that the idea of an “everything app” has been around for years but shows few signs of getting adopted. A big reason for this is inertia.

Right now, our existing apps and payment tools work pretty well, so it’s unlikely we’ll see mass wallet adoption anytime soon without some sort of external nudge. Wester points out that Apple Pay and Google Pay have been around for a decade, yet a huge number of people keep paying with physical cards—because they can. This will change as younger people who are well versed in tech and crypto make up a greater portion of the economy. But until then, wallet makers may have to find a way to make their suddenly attractive products downright irresistible.

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

DECENTRALIZED NEWS

Stablecoins at YouTube: In a landmark moment for crypto in mainstream commerce, YouTube is now giving U.S. creators on the platform the option to receive payment in the form of PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD. (Fortune)

Circle’s new privacy coin: Stablecoin giant Circle is working with an upstart blockchain called Aleo to issue a spin-off of its flagship token called USDCx, which will let banking clients obscure private transaction histories. (Fortune)

Charters for all: The OCC issued national trust bank charters to Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Paxos and Fidelity Digital Assets. The move comes amid a broader move by the agency to issue more such charters, which do not allow taking customer deposits or accessing FDIC insurance. (Axios)

Tokenization tipping point? The SEC issued a no-action letter to the DTCC, which will let the country’s main clearing house custody stocks on the blockchain. The permission applies only to 1,000 of the most liquid stocks, but is a key first step for what is likely to be a wholesale shift toward putting custody and record keeping on-chain. (Bloomberg)

Think I’ll buy me a football team: Tether, whose CEO is Italian and a lifetime fan of Juventus, made a bid to buy the storied football club. Its board rebuffed the offer even as the publicly-traded club struggles to keep up with financial dominance of Premier League teams and Real Madrid. (Reuters)

MAIN CHARACTER OF THE WEEK

Do Kwon in Podgorica, Montenegro, in 2024—before he was extradited to the U.S.

Filip Filipovic—Getty Images

Do Kwon is arguably the second most notorious fraudster in crypto history. Now, the Terra Luna founder, known for his “steady lads” rallying cry, will get to test how steady he is after a U.S. judge sentenced him to 15 years in prison. If it’s any consolation, this earns him Fortune Crypto’s weekly Main Character designation.

MEME O’ THE MOMENT

Satoshi Nakamoto wanted to reinvent finance. Now, he’s at the New York Stock Exchange.

The cult of Satoshi keeps spreading as the New York Stock Exchange becomes the latest venue to install a physical statue of the Bitcoin creator.

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Magnificent 7 isn’t that magnificent: 5 stocks have underperformed the market this year

Published

55 minutes ago

December 15, 2025

Jace Porter

S&P 500 futures were up 0.44% this morning after the index lost 1.07% on Friday, a day after setting a new all-time high on Dec.11.

The index is still up 16% year-to-date—an above-average performance for U.S. stocks. Analysts have long complained that the index is dominated by the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks. Between October 2022 and November 2025 roughly 75% of gains in the S&P 500 came from this handful of companies.

But as we draw near to the close of the year, only two of those stocks—Alphabet and Nvidia—have beaten the market as a whole, year to date:

What appears to be happening is that investors are picking between winners and losers in tech, as opposed to just herding into the index or tech stocks as a whole. That’s probably healthy if you are worried that AI spending is creating a bubble in tech stocks.

The best example of this is Oracle, which is up a respectable 14% year to date but has declined 42% from its high in September. Investors have not liked the extra debt that Oracle has taken on, at increasingly wider interest spreads above the risk-free benchmarks, to fund its AI buildout.

Wall Street is not yet ready to declare the AI gold rush a bubble. “If this is a bubble, it is still in its early stages,” Deutsche Bank analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan said in a recent deep-dive research note on AI.

Thus far, the capital expenditure and the revenue is real: it’s hitting the top and bottom lines of Alphabet and Nvidia, and that’s why valuations for those companies are so healthy. “The charge is led by well-established Big Tech companies with multiple revenue streams, who are paying for their investment in data centers mostly out of free cash flow and from which they are generating immediate returns from enterprise customers,” Cox and Abrudan wrote.

“We think that reports of a bubble are exaggerated (for now),” they said.

Elsewhere: Asian markets were down today but markets in Europe largely rose in early trading. The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.63% at the time of writing; The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.74%.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

S&P 500 futures were up 0.44% this morning. The last session closed down 1.07%.
STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.63% in early trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.74% in early trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.31%.
China’s CSI 300 was down 0.63%.
The South Korea KOSPI was down 1.84%.
India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.12%.
Bitcoin was at $89K.

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Visa launches stablecoins advisory practice to keep up with crypto wave

Published

1 hour ago

December 15, 2025

Jace Porter

Another major financial institution is doubling down on stablecoins and on crypto. This time, it’s Visa. The company announced on Monday the launch of its Stablecoins Advisory Practice, a service which aims to aid fintechs, banks, and other businesses with their strategy and implementation of stablecoins.

“Helping our clients grow is frankly the reason we exist in stablecoin,” said Carl Rutstein, global head of Visa Consulting and Analytics, in an interview with Fortune. “What Visa is doing in this space is just one more area where our clients have a need.”

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value by means of reserves that peg them to a fiat currency, typically the U.S. dollar. They have recently been embraced by a wide range of companies from the traditional financial sector following President Donald Trump’s signing of the Genius Act in July, legislation which creates rules for issuing the digital asset. In the months since, other payments powerhouses like Paypal and Mastercard have boosted their stablecoin capabilities.

Rutstein said that Visa’s stablecoins advisory has dozens of clients, among whom are Navy Federal Credit Union, the credit union VyStar, and a financial institution called Pathward. He said the practice will help businesses with their strategy, tech and operations, and implementation of stablecoins. Its clients use cases for stablecoins include cross-border transactions, especially to countries with volatile currencies, and business-to-business transactions. After using Visa’s advisory, Rutstein said some businesses may push forward with stablecoins, while others may conclude there is not a customer need. The company said that it expects the practice will grow to hundreds of clients.

Visa is by no means new to crypto. In 2023, the company piloted stablecoin settlement using USDC, and it now has over 130 stablecoin-linked card issuing programs in more than 40 countries. Visa also has about $3.5 billion in annualized stablecoin settlement volume.

“Stablecoins may represent an opportunity to enhance speed and lower cost in payments,” said Matt Freeman, senior vice president of Navy Federal Credit Union, in the statement. “So with the support of Visa, we are evaluating how this technology could fit into our broader strategy to deliver meaningful value to our 15 million members worldwide.”

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