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What is a bear market? How Trump’s tariff blitz caused a market meltdown that could send the S&P 500 to lows not seen since 2022

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 Wall Street could soon be in the claws of another bear market as the Trump administration’s tariff blitz fuels fears that the added taxes on imported goods from around the world will sink the global economy.

The last bear market happened in 2022, but this decline feels more like the sudden, turbulent bear market of 2020, when the benchmark S&P 500 index tumbled 34% in a one-month period, the shortest bear market ever.

Here are some common questions about bear markets:

Why is it called a bear market?

A bear market is a term used by Wall Street when an index such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 20% or more from a recent high for a sustained period of time.

Why use a bear to refer to a market slump? Bears hibernate, so they represent a stock market that’s retreating. In contrast, Wall Street’s nickname for a surging market is a bull market, because bulls charge.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s main barometer of health, closed 0.2% lower Monday after having been down by as much as 4.7%. It’s now 17.6% below the all-time high it set on Feb. 19.

The Dow industrials fell 0.9%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite, which already was in a bear market, bounced back from an early slide to eke out a 0.1% gain.

The most recent bear market for the S&P 500 ran from Jan. 3 to Oct. 12 in 2022.

What’s bothering investors?

The trade war has ratcheted up fear and uncertainty on Wall Street over how businesses and consumers will respond.

President Donald Trump followed through on tariff threats last week by declaring a 10% baseline tax on imports from all countries and higher tariff rates on dozens of nations that run trade surpluses with the United States.

Global markets cratered the next day, and the sell-off deepened after China announced it would retaliate with tariffs equal to the ones from the U.S.

Tariffs cause economic pain in part because they’re a tax paid by importers that often gets passed along to consumers, adding to inflationary pressure. They also provoke trading partners into retaliating, which can hurt all economies involved.

Import taxes can also cause economic damage by complicating the decisions businesses have to make, including which suppliers to use, where to locate factories and what prices to charge. And that uncertainty can cause them to delay or cancel investments that help drive economic growth.

The tariffs come at a time when the U.S. economy is already showing signs of slowing. Markets are also worried that tariffs could fuel inflation, which recently ticked higher.

How long do bear markets last and how deep do they go?

On average, bear markets have taken 13 months to go from peak to trough and 27 months to get back to breakeven since World War II. The S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets in that time. The biggest decline since 1945 occurred in the 2007-2009 bear market, when the S&P 500 fell 57%.

History shows that the faster an index enters into a bear market, the shallower they tend to be. Historically, stocks have taken 251 days (8.3 months) to fall into a bear market. When the S&P 500 has fallen 20% at a faster clip, the index has averaged a loss of 28%.

The longest bear market lasted 61 months and ended in March 1942. It cut the index by 60%.

When is a bear market over?

Generally, investors look for a 20% gain from a low point as well as sustained gains over at least a six-month period. It took less than three weeks for stocks to rise 20% from their low in March 2020.

Should investors sell now?

If you need the money now or want to lock in the losses, yes. Otherwise, many advisers suggest riding through the ups and downs while remembering the swings are the price of admission for the stronger returns that stocks have provided over the long term.

While dumping stocks would stop the bleeding, it would also prevent any potential gains. Many of the best days for Wall Street have occurred either during a bear market or just after one ended. That includes two separate days in the middle of the 2007-2009 bear market when the S&P 500 surged roughly 11%, as well as leaps of better than 9% during and shortly after the monthlong 2020 bear market.

Advisers suggest putting money into stocks only if it will not be needed for several years. The S&P 500 has come back from every one of its prior bear markets to eventually rise to another all-time high.

The down decade for the stock market following the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble was a notoriously brutal stretch, but stocks have often been able to regain their highs within a few years.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Bitcoin rebounds as the US dollar weakens

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Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market surged at the start of this week as President Trump engaged in a Ethereum and Dogecoin have both gained 3% within the last 24 hours.

“Bitcoin’s move above $87,000 is a clear signal that investors are seeking refuge in decentralized assets amid rising tariffs, inflation concerns, and global economic uncertainty,” Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, CEO of crypto companies Concrete and Glow Finance, tells Fortune.

The crypto market’s gains come amid Trump’s threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest as quickly as he would like. The feud has raised concerns over the Fed’s traditional status as an independent central bank, unbeholden to political pressures. It’s unlikely the president would have the power to do so, but that could change in the future. On Friday, the White House confirmed that Trump is “studying” whether the president has the power to terminate Powell before his term is up in 2026. 

And while the crypto market is enjoying a relief rally, the traditional stock market has continued to slide. While the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones made slight gains from this month’s earlier lows, the indexes are both down 3% on Monday. 

And Trump’s public comments about Powell seem to have further dented the value of the U.S. Dollar. The currency has already fallen significantly since Trump’s inauguration in January, and on Monday, it fell to its lowest value since 2022 when compared to foreign currencies.  

As concerns over tariffs, inflation and the Fed’s independence loom large, some people are investing in digital currencies because they are detached from any centralized entity, allowing them to fluctuate independent from the stock market. 

Youwei Yang, Chief Economist, Bitcoin mining company BIT Mining, told Fortune that while Bitcoin moves in tandem with equities in the short-term, it can serve as a haven from geopolitical pressures in the long-term. 

“In the early stages of crises, it often behaves like a risk asset—similar to tech stocks—falling sharply amid panic,” he said. “Yet as markets stabilize and investors reassess, it can exhibit characteristics of a safe haven asset, akin to gold.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Pope Francis visited one basilica more than 100 times after his trips abroad. Now he will be buried there

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The 88-year-old pontiff had been well aware of his fragile state and advanced age. As early as 2015, Pope Francis had expressed the desire to be buried in the Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore, a fifth-century church in Rome dedicated to the Blessed Virgin Mary. He was so devoted to Mary and her basilica that after each of his more than 100 trips abroad, he would visit it after returning to Rome to pray and meditate.

No pope has been buried in Santa Maria Maggiore since the 17th century, when Pope Clement IX was laid to rest there.

I’m a specialist in Catholic liturgical history. In earlier centuries, papal funerals have been elaborate affairs, ceremonies befitting a Renaissance prince or other regal figure. But in recent years, the rites have been simplified. As Pope Francis has mandated, here are the steps that the ritual will follow.

First station: Preparation of the body

The funeral rites take place in three parts, called stations. The first takes place in the pope’s private chapel, after medical professionals have certified his death. Until recently, this stage had taken place at the pope’s bedside.

After the body lies in rest in the chapel, the cardinal serving as the pope’s camerlengo – the pope’s chief of staff – will make the arrangements for the funeral. He is also tasked with running the Vatican until a new pope is elected. The current camerlengo is Cardinal Kevin Joseph Farrell, appointed by Francis in 2019.

As has been done for centuries, the camerlengo will formally call the deceased pope by the full name given to him when he was baptized as an infant – Jorge Mario Bergoglio. There are narratives or legends stating that, at this time, the pope was also tapped three times on the forehead with a small silver hammer. However, there is no documented proof that this was actually done in earlier centuries to verify a pope’s death.

Traditionally, another ancient rite will also take place after the declaration of the pope’s death: the defacing of the pope’s ring. Each pope wears a custom-made ring with an engraved image of a man fishing from a boat, hearkening back to the gospel of Matthew, where Jesus calls St. Peter a “fisher of men.” This Fisherman’s Ring, with the name of the current pope engraved over the image, could act as a seal on official documents. The camerlengo will break Francis’ ring and smash the seal with a hammer or other instrument to prevent any other person from using it.

The pope’s apartments will also be locked, with no one allowed to enter; traditionally, this was done to prevent looting.

Second station: Viewing the body

The deceased pope will be dressed in his simple white cassock and red vestments, then placed in a simple wooden coffin. This will be carried in procession to St. Peter’s Basilica, where the public viewing will take place for the next three days.

The pope’s body will be left in the plain, open casket during this viewing period in order to emphasize the pope’s humble role as a pastor, not a head of state. The earlier practice would have been to place the body on top of a tall raised platform, called a catafalque; this ended with the funeral of Pope Benedict XVI in 2022.

Pope Benedict was also the last pope to be buried in the traditional three coffins of cypress, lead and elm. Two coffins contained specific documents about his pontificate; the first coffin also held the traditional three bags of coins – gold, silver and copper – representing each year of his pontificate.

At Francis’ funeral, after the public viewing, a plain white cloth will be placed over the pope’s face as he lies in the oak coffin, a continuing part of papal funerals. But this will be the first time that only a single coffin will be used; it will likely contain a document describing his pontificate and a bag of coins from his pontificate as well.

The funeral Mass will then be celebrated at St. Peter’s, most likely inside because of the late winter weather, and there will likely be a crowd of believers outside, assembled on the plaza. The homily will reflect on the life and spirituality of the deceased pope; Francis himself preached at the funeral of his retired predecessor, Pope Benedict. And the future Pope Benedict, as Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, preached at the funeral of Pope St. John Paul II when Ratzinger was the leader, or the dean, of all senior church officials – what’s known as the College of Cardinals.

The current dean is 91-year-old Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, and it is unclear whether he will be able to continue this tradition due to his advanced age. Masses will continue to be said in Francis’ memory for nine days after his death – a period called the Novendialis. This ritual was inspired by an ancient Roman tradition prescribing a mourning period ending on the ninth day after a death.

Third station: Burial

Popes in the past have been buried in several different places. Until the legalization of Christianity in the Roman Empire in the early fourth century, popes would be interred in the catacombs, the burial grounds on the outskirts of Rome.

Afterward, popes could be buried in a number of different locations, such as the Basilica of St. John Lateran – the official cathedral of Rome – or other churches in and around Rome. A few were even buried in France during the 14th century, when the papacy moved to the French border for political reasons.

Most popes are buried in the grottoes underneath St. Peter’s, and since Pope Leo XIII’s burial at St. John Lateran in 1903, every pope has been buried at St. Peter’s. According to Francis’ wishes, however, there will likely be a procession across Rome to Santa Maria Maggiore, including the hearse and cars carrying others who will attend this private ritual.

After a few final prayers and sprinkling of holy water, the coffin will be placed in its final location inside the church. Only later will the area be opened to the public for prayers and veneration.

After so many journeys from Rome to visit Catholic communities in countries across the globe, and so many visits to this basilica for prayer and meditation, it seems fitting that, at the end of his life’s journey, Francis would make one last trip to the church he loved so much to be laid to rest forever.

The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. The Conversation is wholly responsible for the content.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Gen Z is so terrified of a recession that they’re ditching doom spending, ordering Happy Meals, and using ChatGPT for free therapy

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  • Gen Z is preparing for a potential recession with “no-buy lists” and other thrifty savings habits. They’re turning to free AI therapists, fast-food survey rewards, and dumpster diving to weather the downturn—especially as they’re the most vulnerable to layoffs and rising prices. 

The “lipstick effect” has historically been a popular way to gauge a recession against spending habits—with shoppers opting to buy smaller luxuries, like makeup, during a downturn versus cars and property. 

But Gen Z is redefining their recession experience through all the things they won’t buy. From turning to free ChatGPT bots in lieu of costly human therapists, to creating “no buy” lists including clothes and beauty treatments, they’re proving they’re willing to do anything to save a buck.

“Right now there’s a lot of economic uncertainty,” TikTok user @whatshesaves said in a video, adding she is tackling $9,000 worth of debt. “I am actually trying to go on this journey of eliminating as many things out of my life, in living more intentionally, not just going shopping.”

Her TikTok video clearly resonated with what a lot of young people are feeling right now, raking in over 2.6 million views and 14,500 comments. Users chimed in under the video with their frugal hacks: surviving off Burger King survey rewards, eating kids’ meals as an adult, and dumpster diving for essentials. 

Another user shared the tricks young adults like her pulled out during the 2008 recession. She divulged about sneaking into hotel buffets and grabbing extra condiments at restaurants to take home—potential inspiration for the young generation facing an economic crisis today. 

The ways Gen Z are ‘recession-proofing’ their lives

While no generation is immune to economic downturn, Gen Z is considered especially vulnerable. They’re the lowest on the workforce totem pole with the smallest salaries, often shackled with student debt, still trying to understand finances like many generations navigated during their 20’s. 

Moreover, Gen Z don’t have the savings piled up their Gen X counterparts do, so cutting back on spending in small ways has become a way to actively “recession-proof” their lives. 

One popular way young people have been sharing their saving hacks is through “no-buy lists,” detailing all the things they’re no longer splurging on during the recession. One user on TikTok shared her rejection roster: blankets, polyester “plastic” clothing, shoes, occasion outfits, trinkets, and accessories. She’s also opted out of salon visits—like nail and hair services—alongside buying home decor. Another user echoed her plans to cut back spending on clothes as well as vacations and dates.  

Beyond frivolous expenditures, Gen Z is also shaving their spending on essentials to make ends meet. One 25-year-old digital marketing specialist replaced her human therapist with ChatGPT; Aeyrn Briscoe’s weekly sessions morphed into mini text conversations with the AI chatbot she now turns to several times a day. 

“Therapy is expensive,” Briscoe told The Wall Street Journal. “No one has an extra $200 to spend to talk to someone.”

Gen Z ditching ‘doom spending’ amid financial fears

Gen Z trends of “recession-proofing” and “no-buy lists” couldn’t be farther from the tune they were singing a few months ago. Their days of splurging on little luxuries may be over as the economy takes a turn for the worse.

Young people were once known for “doom spending”: shelling out on their pets, vacations, and clothes for short-term gratification. With the prospect of buying a home getting further out of reach and living costs reaching a fever pitch, these little dopamine hits help quell their economic anxieties. After all, Gen Z is increasingly doubtful they’ll ever be able to afford the American Dream. But now, even the small luxuries are fast falling out of favor.

Nearly 47% of Gen Z do not have an emergency fund, and 27% carry more debt than they do savings, according to a 2025 report from Bankrate. These entry-level professionals are feeling the squeeze at work, too; only 43% are positive about their employer’s business outlook for the next six months, according to a recent report from Glassdoor. That’s the lowest number—and weakest confidence—ever reported since data collection started in 2016.

Not only are Gen Z’s wallets under a pinch, but their jobs may be too. 

“Entry-level workers have less job security,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist for Glassdoor, told Fortune. “As they see these economic headwinds on the horizon, there’s an understandable concern that they might be the first ones to lose their jobs in a recession, or they’ll be left out in the cold when trying to find a new job.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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