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Trump tariffs could climb even further—to the highest since 1872—before they ease again as a cycle of retaliation and escalation plays out

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  • President Donald Trump’s tariffs could reach an effective rate as high as 30%, up from 25% under his recently announced plans, according to analysts at UBS. A rate that steep would mark the highest level in more than 150 years. But after a cycle of retaliation and escalation, UBS see tariffs coming back down later this year.

President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are already sending rates to the steepest levels in a century, but they could go even higher.

According to a note from UBS analysts on Friday, the latest salvo of import taxes will send the effective rate to 25%, up from 2.5% before the 2024 election. But it’s not likely to stop there.

“We believe that the EU and China are likely to retaliate, and that the ‘reciprocal’ approach to US tariffs means that retaliation by trading partners is likely to be met with even higher US tariffs,” they wrote.

In addition, some of the imports that weren’t targeted this past week may be subject to future investigations and could lose their exemptions, UBS said, noting the Trump administration has a “high degree of conviction” in the merits of restrictive trade policies.

On Wednesday, Trump added a 34% levy on China that will take the total rate to 54% and hit the European Union with a 20% duty. China has already retaliated with its own 34% tariff, and the EU said it plans to respond too.

UBS expects the effective US tariff rate will peak in the 25%-30% range. According to data from Fitch Ratings, a 25% effective tariff rate would already be the highest since 1909.

And if it reaches 30%, it would be the highest since 1872—when Civil War hero Ulysses S. Grant was president and the US economy was still in the early stages of the Industrial Revolution.

But by the third quarter, UBS sees tariffs starting to head back down and expects the effective rate to end 2025 at 10%-15%.

“Various individual countries have suggested that they do not intend to retaliate and that deals with individual countries could begin to bring the overall effective tariff rate down,” analysts said.

In fact, Vietnam confirmed over the weekend that it offered to remove all tariffs on US imports, and Trump administration officials said Sunday that more than 50 countries have reached out to the White House for tariff talks.

Trump will also face more pressure to negotiate, UBS predicted, citing potential challenges to the legal basis for his tariffs and extensive business lobbying to water down policies or carve out exceptions.

And as midterm election season gets closer, political calculations may also soften Trump’s stance. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz warned of a political “bloodbath” in 2026 if tariffs cause a recession.

UBS sees US GDP expanding by less than 1% in 2025, including an intra-year recession that will see GDP decline 1% from peak to trough. Stocks will rebound, but analysts slashed their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,800 from 6,400.

“We believe some potentially acceptable ‘off-ramps’ that could enable all sides to declare victory could include some combination of higher European defense spending, measures in Asia to prevent dumping of excess supply into global markets, reductions in existing tariff or non-tariff barriers, or measures to increase inward investment into the US,” UBS said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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More CHROs are getting appointed to corporate boards—but rookies directors may have less luck

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Job seekers are using tricks like the ‘white font’ hack to outsmart AI gatekeepers—but their tactics may backfire

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Job applicants are getting creative in trying to circumvent tAI systems that support the first screening process for many companies, but “hacking” your resume may just have the opposite effect.

In recent years, companies have made job seekers do more to prove they’re a fit for the organization, including endless rounds of interviews, in-depth work tests, and increasingly, AI screenings. An October survey from Resume Builder found half of the companies surveyed were already using AI in the hiring process, and 70% planned to incorporate it by the end of 2025.

In an effort to fight back, some applicants are resurrecting a loophole meant to trick AI screening systems and increase the odds of your résumé making it into the hands of a human. The supposed “white font” hack involves stuffing your resume with related keywords from a job posting in a tiny font and white letters so that the screening software finds you to be an appealing candidate, even if human hiring managers can’t see the text themselves.

While the trick has been around for years, it has resurfaced as applicants look for any way to help beat the AI-driven systems that have emerged to weed out applications.

The white-font hack may work for some applicant tracking systems looking for keywords, yet, it isn’t as foolproof as job seekers might think, Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, the chief innovation officer at staffing firm ManpowerGroup, told the Washington Post.

“Does it work? Yeah,” Chamorro-Premuzic told the outlet. “But it might contribute 10% or 15% of the variability between a résumé that is ultimately accepted versus one that is rejected.”

HR professionals on TikTok have also pointed out that companies have gotten savvy to the trick, and employing it (pun intended) could land you on a company blacklist. 

Watch on TikTok

Still, with the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in October last year, many people are desperate to snag a position by any means necessary. You’ll find this sentiment all over social media, particularly on forums like the subreddit “jobsearchhacks,” where users frequently vent about applying to dozens of companies over months with little success. 

One user by the name of Hopeful_alchemist on Reddit wrote in a post that they had applied to 52 jobs and gotten to the interview stage 10 times, but still did not have a job after six months. 

A survey from consulting firm PwC also claims entry-level jobs are especially harder to come by. The survey said in 2023, only 61% of HR leaders were looking for entry-level candidates, compared to 79% a year prior.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Paramount employees endure a brutal year of layoffs

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Good morning!

When a company is going through a crisis, outsiders can see headlines documenting executive moves, stock price dips, or acquisition rumors. What’s less obvious is how distressing these periods are for the rank-and-file workers. 

My colleague Lila MacLellan recently wrote about Paramount’s tumultuous year, which included a CEO firing, a high-profile sale, and layoffs that impacted around 2,000 workers—more than Netflix, Disney, and Warner Bros. combined. Staffers were riveted and terrified by the changes, with one former employee telling Fortune the year was “honestly traumatizing, honestly inhumane.”

Paramount has been a Hollywood institution for decades, but a combination of family ownership squabbles, management missteps, and the disruption of the entertainment business all led to a brutal 2024. CEO Bob Bakish, who had a longtime close relationship with Paramount owner Shari Redstone, was abruptly fired in the spring of last year. He was replaced by three CEOs who were each responsible for different parts of the company, and proceeded to conduct mass layoffs, leaving employees fuming. 

“There’s nothing redundant about three CEOs at all and yet they’re the ones that are sorting out redundancies,” another former employee told Fortune. “The jokes write themselves, right?”

There’s no perfect way to lay off workers. But Paramount’s struggles show just how demoralizing it can be when the workforce is left waiting for the ax to drop. That’s exactly what happened over the summer, after employees were told there would be job cuts, and left to wonder if they would be the ones to go. 

“We knew that our particular division was going to be impacted,” said another former Paramount employee. “It was just kind of six weeks of nonstop stress.” 

You can read more here about Paramount’s struggles, and its effect on the workforce. 

Azure Gilman
azure.gilman@fortune.com

Today’s edition was curated by Brit Morse.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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