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Bessent strikes defiant tariff tone as he rejects US recession

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday struck a defiant tone in the face of global financial markets selling off sharply in response to new US tariffs, arguing the new duties were necessary and rejecting the idea that they would cause a US recession. 

“I see no reason that we have to price in a recession,” Bessent told NBC’s Meet the Press with Kristen Welker

Bessent gave no indication that President Donald Trump was willing to back down on the sweeping new tariffs he introduced last week. He said more than 50 countries had called the administration seeking negotiations, but any talks are going to take time. 

From the US perspective, other countries “have been bad actors for a long time,” Bessent said, adding that the issues could not be negotiated away in a matter of days or weeks. 

“We’re going to have to see what the countries offer and if it’s believable,” he said. “I think we are going to have to see the path forward.” 

He added, “After decades of “bad behavior you can’t just wipe the slate clean.” 

Bessent’s efforts to calm the markets came the day after an additional 10% duty on all US imports went into effect Saturday. Additional tailored tariffs of up to 50% are due to go into effect on imports from roughly 60 countries on Wednesday. 

The announced tariffs will take US import taxes to their highest level in more than a century and have prompted widespread downgrades in growth expectations for the US and global economies. Economists at JPMorgan on Friday said they now expect the US to slip into a recession this year. 

Trump, who has spent the weekend fielding phone calls and competing in the club championship at his Florida golf club, has said he wants to reshape the global economy in America’s advantage. He argues that the tariffs will bring a wave of new investments as companies build new factories in  the US, bringing jobs and wealth home to the US. 

The main target of his ire is a US trade deficit in goods that topped $1 trillion last year. In the past two trading days US equities lost $5 trillion in value as investors sold off stocks in anticipation of a US and global economic slowdown.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Crypto firms gave $18M to Trump’s inauguration, Ripple’s $4.9M gift was second biggest overall

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President Donald Trump had the most lavish inauguration week in history, thanks to a record $239 million in donations from corporate supporters and executives, according to a Sunday filing with the Federal Election Commission. A hefty portion came from the crypto industry, which has been one of Trump’s most vocal supporters: Crypto firms and their leaders gave $18 million in inauguration donations to the 47th president. Other big donors include oil companies like Exxon Mobil, big tech firms like Google, and a lobby group for the U.S. vaping industry.

Ripple Labs, which has battled the Securities and Exchange Commission in a long-running court case, led the pack with almost $4.9 million. Ripple’s donation was the second largest among all donors. Pilgrim’s, one of the world’s largest poultry producers, gave the most and donated $5 million.

Robinhood, the online brokerage that reaps a sizable percentage of its revenue from crypto trading, donated $2 million. Other large donors include some of the top names in the industry, including exchanges Coinbase, Kraken, and Crypto.com. The stablecoin issuer Circle, which recently filed to go public, and venture capital titan Paradigm, which saw its assets under management soar to near highs in 2024, also donated $1 million each.

View this interactive chart on Fortune.com

While many crypto companies had already publicly disclosed their donations to Trump’s inauguration, the Sunday filing shows the full extent to which the industry has showered the president with cash.

Under former President Joe Biden, the SEC led a widespread crackdown on the crypto industry as it alleged that the majority of cryptocurrencies were securities, or financial assets like stock and bonds that must adhere to strict disclosure regimes. Faced with lawsuit after lawsuit, crypto executives amassed an unprecedented war chest and spent more than $130 million to sway congressional elections and elect pro-crypto candidates.

Crypto CEOs also rallied around Trump, who described himself as a “pro-crypto president.” Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the cofunders of the crypto exchange Gemini, pledged $1 million a piece to Trump’s reelection campaign. And Kraken founder and chairman Jesse Powell also donated $1 million.

After he won back the White House, Trump ushered in a crypto-friendly administration. He hired an AI and crypto czar, authorized the creation of a strategic Bitcoin and digital assets reserve, and oversaw the defanging of crypto litigation units at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the SEC, and the Department of Justice.

The SEC has since dismissed lawsuits filed or threatened against donors to Trump’s inauguration fund, including Coinbase, Crypto.com, Uniswap, Yuga Labs, Kraken, and Ripple.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Trump’s Powell threats sink stocks in rocky start to trading week

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  • U.S. stock indexes fell Monday, kicking off a rough start to the week amid growing concerns about tariffs and the future of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to fall and Treasury bond yields rose while gold soared.

The “Sell America” trade was still in effect Monday as all major U.S. stock indexes closed lower amid mounting concerns about President Donald Trump’s trade war and his unprecedented threats to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.48% percent lower, while the S&P 500 fell around 2.36% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.55%. At the same time, the dollar fell to a three-year low and gold soared to record highs. A major concern among investors: the future independence of the Fed, as Trump once again laid into Powell in a post on his social media platform Truth Social Monday morning.

Calling Powell “Mr. Too Late, a major loser” in his post, the president called on the chair to lower interest rates, falsely claiming “there is virtually No Inflation.” The Federal Reserve, which typically acts independently of the government regardless of which party is in power, has been hesitant to lower rates this year due to concerns about rising inflation tied to the president’s tariff policies.

Though he did not outright call for Powell’s firing on Monday, investors and Fed critics alike are still worried he might attempt to do so. On Friday, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said Trump was “studying” whether he can remove Powell before his term ends next year. Removing Powell would likely lead to even greater stock and bond sell offs, said Krishna Guha, vice president of Evercore ISI, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday.

“If you actually did try to remove the Federal Reserve chairman, I think you would see a severe reaction in markets with yields higher, dollars lower and equities selling off,” said Guha. “I can’t believe that that’s what the administration is trying to achieve.”

The global “de-dollarization” also seemed apparent as the U.S. dollar slid further Monday. In a more typical environment, markets would be using dollars as a safe haven from the other economic noise, and the dollar would be strengthening. But other countries are losing faith in the U.S. due to the Trump administration’s erratic actions and actively selling down U.S. assets. The dollar is down over 9% year-to-date compared to a basket of other currencies.

U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the rate on the 10-year note up over 4.4%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other crypto assets surged to start off the week, acting as a safe haven amid Trump’s attacks on the Fed. Gold, too, has soared to multiple new highs this year as investors run for safety.

Nonexistent trade deals also worrying investors

Economists and investors are worried that the president’s proposed tariffs could cause a recession if the administration moves forward with them. Though Trump is hoping to make deals with dozens of different countries—including Japan and 74 other countries—so far none have materialized.

And China, on which Trump has levied 145% import tariffs, warned other countries Monday against making trade deals with the U.S. “at the expense of China’s interest.” The country will “take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner,” its Commerce Ministry said.

There is a 90% chance of a recession in the U.S. in 2025, according to Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Sløk.

“Implementing extremely high tariffs overnight hurts many businesses; particularly small businesses because the tariff must be paid by the business when the imported goods arrive in the U.S.,” he wrote this weekend. “Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy.”

Major earnings this week, including from the likes of Tesla, will be closely watched on Wall Street. Several companies have pulled forward guidance, including Delta Airlines and Walgreens.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Even fellow critics of the Federal Reserve want Trump to back off Powell as stocks and the dollar both slide

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  • The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a standard basket of currencies, with the euro stronger relative to U.S. currency than at any point since November 2021. The safe-haven status of gold is also in focus as the precious metal’s price hits record highs above the $3,420 mark.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are ostensibly aimed at forcing the world to “buy American,” but investors are doing the opposite with U.S. assets. The selloff in equities and Treasury bonds has even hit the almighty dollar, putting its safe-haven status in question, and Trump’s badgering of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t appear to be helping.

While the virtues of central bank independence have become mainstream economic dogma, experts warn it lacks a strong legal basis. On Monday, markets got their first chance to react to Trump’s top economist saying the administration is studying its options to fire the Fed chair. The dollar slid to a two-year low, and the S&P 500 dropped over 3% as the president took to social media and once again called on Powell and the Fed to cut interest rates, which Trump claims will complement his tariff strategy.

“With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, “but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”

Last week, the president said Powell’s termination could not “come fast enough” after the Fed chair warned Trump’s announced tariffs could result in both slowing growth and higher inflation, a dreaded combination known as “stagflation.” Powell acknowledged such a scenario is difficult for central banks, which raise interest rates to fight inflation but lower them to spur economic activity.

A day later, Trump repeatedly criticized the world’s most important central banker while talking to reporters with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump said.

Powell has maintained that he can only be fired “for cause,” presumably referring to Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act. While not explicitly defined in the statute, the Supreme Court’s 1935 decision in Humphrey’s Executor v. United States held that protection meant the head of such an agency could only be removed for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance”—and not for current policy disagreements.

Trump has already tested that precedent by firing Democratic members of the National Labor Relations Board and Merit Systems Protection Board, with both cases going to the Supreme Court. Regardless, Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, thinks the court’s 1935 standard could be used to describe Powell and the Fed’s slow response to rising inflation in 2021. 

Now, he agrees with Trump that the central bank should cut rates. Still, even Hatfield, who manages ETFs and a series of hedge funds, told Fortune the president needs to back off on his threats. 

“We just don’t need more volatility, more uncertainty right now,” he said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems to agree. Last week, Politico reported Bessent has repeatedly warned White House officials that any attempt to fire Powell risks destabilizing markets.

Will the dollar lose its safe-haven status?

The independence of the Federal Reserve is a key part of what makes the U.S. economy appealing to investors. When politics interferes with the central bank’s ability to set monetary policy, however, inflation tends to be the result, which has been a major problem in autocracies like Turkey.

Trump, notably, is far from the first president to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. President Richard Nixon told then–Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low in the early 1970s, later contributing to America’s worst bout with stagflation.

The crisis was only cured after Burns’ successor, Paul Volcker, raised rates to a record 20%. The move induced a painful and unpopular recession. However, the rise of an independent central bank committed to fighting inflation helped usher in a period of macroeconomic stability known as the “Great Moderation,” according to Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

“Building that trust takes years,” he wrote in a note Monday. “Losing that trust can happen overnight.”

To many, recent market turmoil has signaled a dramatic drop of confidence in the U.S. The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a standard basket of currencies, with the euro stronger relative to U.S. currency than at any point since November 2021. The safe-haven status of gold is in focus as the precious metal’s price hits record highs above the $3,420 mark.

Of course, Trump and several of his allies have called for a weaker dollar to make American exports cheaper abroad. At a Senate hearing in 2023, Powell was questioned about its status as the world’s reserve currency by now–Vice President JD Vance.

“It’s the place where people want to be in times of stress,” Powell said, “using dollar-denominated assets.”

That’s not the case right now, though.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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