Politics
Last Call for 4.1.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
It’s Election Day in Florida, and the two congressional districts on the ballot are drawing national attention.
The Republican nominees — former CFO Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s 1st and former Sen. Randy Fine in Florida’s 6th — are both expected to win election, but Democrats are confident the results will show the party has a pulse after weak showings in the past several election cycles.
CD 1 is as close to a sure thing as possible for the GOP. The Panhandle-based district has the most lopsided electorate in the state, it’s R+19 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index and, if anything, that undersells it.
Last year, President Donald Trump carried the district with 68% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 31%. Arguably more relevant to today’s contest, Patronis won re-election there in 2022 with 73% of the vote.
In that election, Patronis was miles ahead in fundraising, but Democrat Gay Valimont flipped the script in the CD 1 special, logging $6.5 million in contributions compared to about $2 million for Patronis.
The CD 6 race, where Fine is facing Democrat Josh Weil, is expected to be far closer. A recent St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics, put the race at 48%-44%, advantage Fine. That falls within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error and is a far cry from the 66.5% now-National Security Adviser Michael Waltz notched in November.
Just as in CD 1, fundraising has tilted toward Democrats—Weil claims he has raised more than $10 million, or tenfold more than Fine. Mail-in ballot returns are also offering Democrats a glimmer of hope. As of Monday morning, 19,095 mail-in ballots from Democrats had been received by elections officials, compared to 17,562 ballots from Republicans; another 7,519 ballots were received from third—and no-party voters.
Still, that’s not a cushion that can withstand the trend of Republicans running up the score in Election Day voting.
The polls close in CD 6 at 7 p.m. Eastern; voting wraps up at 7 p.m. Central in CD 1. Stay tuned to Florida Politics for full coverage of the results.
3Q
Charlie Bailes, executive vice president of ABC Fine Wine and Spirits, knows something about selling adult beverages. He has closely followed the policy debate around the marketing of hemp-infused drinks being debated in the Legislature now.
What is the chief policy priority for ABC as the Legislature creates a regulatory framework around hemp products?
THC drinks — this is our main point, I would say — must be kept out of reach and unavailable for sale to anyone under 21. That’s how the spirits industry works. Not only age restriction but access restriction. That is what we are looking for with THC bills: to limit access and not just age to purchase.
Does that mean preventing children from even entering a retail store with these drinks, the way minors can’t be allowed in a liquor store?
Yes. Anyone can go to a gas station, a Wawa, you name it. Both proposed bills from the House and Senate do a good job of limiting access. We are absolutely and fully engaged; we are concerned with how it works now. The world we live in, as long as anyone — a restaurant, retailer, a slushee place — if they have a license you can get from the Department of Agriculture, a license to sell hemp products, you can sell it. It is now unregulated. It’s more like the Wild, Wild West. It will continue if these bills don’t address that. We are concerned if nothing ends up being done.
How did you feel when Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a bill last year, and is a better product coming out of the Legislature now?
We believe the evolution needed to happen. Yes, we are very pleased with what has been proposed. Our main issue is limiting access. It’s all about public safety, the same with wine, spirits and beer. We try and apply that to THC as well.
Evening Reads
—”What to watch in today’s big elections in Wisconsin and Florida” via Reid J. Epstein and Emily Cochrane of The New York Times
—”Donald Trump-backed House candidates face unexpected competition in Florida” via Patrick Svitek of The Washington Post
—”Gay Valimont alleges voter suppression after precinct is relocated on day of Special Election” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—“‘Problematic’: Ron DeSantis says Trump got ‘bad advice’ to endorse Randy Fine” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“Michael Waltz and staff used Gmail for government communications, officials say” via John Hudson of The Washington Post
—“ICE admits ‘administrative error’ in deporting Maryland man to El Salvador” via Ben Finley of The Associated Press
—”Top Trump USAID staffer accused of violent outbursts, racist remarks” via Jacqueline Sweet of Rolling Stone
—”Trump says he settled on ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan but doesn’t reveal it” via Gavin Bade, Brian Schwartz and Vipal Monga of The Wall Street Journal
—”The Democrats’ Michelle Obama problem” via Christian Paz of Vox
—”DeSantis charity is not complying with state laws, Florida House analysis says” via Lawrence Mower and Alexandra Glorioso of the Tampa Bay Times
—”Casey DeSantis defends Hope Florida before Senate committee vote” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics
—”Gov. DeSantis says Interim CFO imminent, with a full-time replacement next month” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—”The new marriage of unequals” via Stephanie H. Murray of The Atlantic
Quote of the Day
“I think it’s almost physically impossible for a Republican to lose that district. So, I think we’re looking at a Republican victory, but an underperformance.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, dissing Fine in an interview with Dana Loesch.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
If you’re planning to commit a “dangerous” crime, first off, don’t. Second, don’t use an AirTag because you’ll drink Pruno for at least 15 years if the bill zipping through the Senate becomes law.
Election Day wouldn’t be the same without last-minute drama like the unannounced polling place swap in CD 1. For now, order a Dirty Trick Martini and grab some popcorn.
Sen. Joe Gruters gets a Full Sail now that his bill requiring School Boards to “adopt and acquire” materials using the Gulf of America name is ready for the Senate floor.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
U.S. Open Cup spotlight falls on South Florida
A pair of Florida teams will meet in the second round of the U.S. Open Cup tonight as Inter Miami II faces Miami FC (7:30 p.m. ET, YouTube).
The U.S. Open Cup is the oldest soccer competition in North America, dating back to 1914. The competition has been marred by controversy over the past two seasons as Major League Soccer limited the number of teams in the competition. Traditionally, lower-level leagues play in the early rounds, with MLS sides joining in the third or fourth rounds. But last year, citing schedule congestion, MLS withdrew its first teams from the 2024 competition before backtracking. The league then partially changed its approach, allowing a handful of teams to participate.
This season, MLS decided to include teams that missed out on the playoffs last year to participate, with playoff teams only sending the developmental squads from the third-tier MLS Next Pro, including Inter Miami.
Miami FC plays in the second-tier USL Championship and advanced to the second round after a 4-1 victory over Naples United on Mar. 18. Francisco Bonfiglio scored twice in the victory.
Inter Miami II topped Miami United of the fourth-division semi-professional UPSL 4-2 on Mar. 19 to advance. Yuval Cohen scored twice in the second half to secure the victory.
The winner of tonight’s match advances to the third round to face either Charlotte Independence of USL League One or Carolina Core FC of MLS Next Pro.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
The game is tonight.
Florida Gators (34-4, 17-4 SEC) vs. Auburn Tigers (32-5, 16-4 SEC)
San Antonio; Saturday, 6:09 p.m. EDT
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Gators -2.5; over/under is 159.5
BOTTOM LINE: No. 4 Auburn and No. 3 Florida meet in the NCAA Tournament Final Four.
The Tigers’ record in SEC play is 16-4, and their record is 16-1 against non-conference opponents. Auburn scores 83.2 points while outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.
The Gators’ record in SEC action is 17-4. Florida has a 2-1 record in games decided by 3 points or fewer.
Auburn averages 9.1 made 3-pointers per game, 2.4 more made shots than the 6.7 per game Florida gives up. Florida has shot at a 47.3% rate from the field this season, 6.7 percentage points above the 40.6% shooting opponents of Auburn have averaged.
The teams meet for the second time this season. The Gators won 90-81 in the last matchup on Feb. 8.
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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Not even 24 hours after his party lost a key Wisconsin race and underperformed in Florida, President Donald Trump followed the playbook that has defined his political career: He doubled down.
Trump’s move on Wednesday to place stiff new tariffs on imports from nearly all U.S. trading partners marks an all-in bet by the Republican that his once-fringe economic vision will pay off for Americans. It was the realization of his four decades of advocacy for a protectionist foreign policy and the belief that free trade was forcing the United States into decline as its economy shifted from manufacturing to services.
The tariff announcement was the latest and perhaps boldest manifestation of Trump’s second-term freedom to lead with his instincts after feeling his first turn in the Oval Office was restrained by aides who did not share his worldview. How it shakes out will be a defining judgment on his presidency.
The early reviews have been worrisome.
Financial markets had their worst week since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, foreign trade partners retaliated and economists warned that the import taxes may boost inflation and potentially send the U.S. into a recession. It’s now Republican lawmakers who are fretting about their party’s future while Democrats feel newly buoyant over what they see as Trump’s overreach.
He has promised that the taxes on imports will bring about a domestic manufacturing renaissance and help fund an extension of his 2017 tax cuts. He insisted on Thursday as the Dow Jones fell by 1,600 points that things were “going very well” and the economy would “boom,” then spent Friday at the golf course as the index plunged 2,200 more points.
In his first term, Trump’s tariff threats brought world leaders to his door to cut deals. This time, his actions so far have led to steep retaliation from China and promises from European allies to push back.
As Trump struggles with the economy, Democrats are beginning to emerge from the cloud of doom that has consumed their party ever since their election drubbing in November.
They scored a decisive victory in Wisconsin’s high-profile state Supreme Court election on Tuesday, even after Elon Musk and his affiliated groups poured more than $20 million into the contest. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker then breathed new life into the Democratic resistance by delivering a record 25-hour-long speech on the Senate floor that centered on a call for his party to find its resolve.
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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
The state of Florida may enforce a law eliminating general education courses that teach “identity politics” at Florida’s institutions of higher education pending resolution of a lawsuit filed by professors, a federal judge has ruled.
In January, the American Civil Liberties Union of Florida filed suit on the professors’ behalf alleging that SB 266, a 2023 law limiting general education course classifications and funding for diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, harmed the professors’ academic ambitions. General education courses are required for students to graduate.
Days after a preliminary injunction hearing in Tallahassee in front of U.S. District Chief Judge Mark Walker, he ruled Wednesday that the professors had not established they would suffer any harm.
“This ruling is disappointing, but also offers a clearer path forward to prove this law is unconstitutional,” said Bacardi Jackson, executive director of the ACLU of Florida in a news release. “The law is a blatant effort to control the content of higher education, muzzle Florida’s scholars, and erase perspectives the state finds politically inconvenient. We remain committed to fighting alongside faculty, students, and the broader academic community until this undemocratic law is struck down.”
Among the plaintiffs is University of Florida political science professor Sharon Austin, who complains she was denied funding to present at a 2024 conference hosted by Diversity Abroad, which the school had paid for her to present at in 2023. The school specifically cited SB 266 in refusing to pay for her to appear subsequently, the suit alleges.
“As for Plaintiff Austin, her declaration demonstrates that she has already suffered a denial of state funding to attend conferences in 2024. However, to obtain prospective relief, she must demonstrate an unambiguous intention to seek funding to attend conferences at a reasonably foreseeable time in the future. That she has not done,” Walker wrote.
Professors who have had their courses removed from general education requirements, or fear it may happen, say their injury is chilled speech and potential repercussions in post-tenure review.
“To the extent these Plaintiffs claim their classroom speech associated with courses for which they have no stated plans to teach at a reasonably foreseeable time in the future will be chilled, such a hypothetical future chill is both too remote and speculative to amount to a cognizable injury in fact,” Walker wrote.
ACLU will continue
The plaintiffs allege viewpoint discrimination under the First Amendment; that the law is over-broad; and that it violates Florida’s Campus Free Expression Act.
State University System Chancellor Ray Rodrigues said in January that the law has helped address a Gallup poll that found “political agendas” as Americans’ Number One reason they have lost confidence in higher education.
Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr. said the law helps students who can be “overwhelmed by the number of courses that are out there,” and that students can take whatever classes they wish, “but the easier we can make it for them when it comes to general education and making sure that they’re getting what they need there I think is very important.”
Walker did not rule on merits of the underlying case and the ACLU said it will continue its challenge.
“Plaintiffs’ evidence does not demonstrate that any Plaintiff faces an imminent injury — namely, chilled speech — that is traceable to any Defendant’s enforcement of the general education requirements,” Walker wrote.
“For what it’s worth, Plaintiffs’ existential concerns about the survival of their academic departments and the future viability of their areas of expertise in the state of Florida are certainly understandable. However, these concerns, as described at length in Plaintiffs’ declarations, do not give rise to a concrete, imminent, and non-speculative injury in fact sufficient to permit Plaintiffs to seek a preliminary injunction against Defendants’ enforcement of the general education requirements.”
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Jay Waagmeester reporting. Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: [email protected]
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