• All the major U.S. stock market indices would need to have strong ends of the year just to finish flat. While that’s not impossible for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow, it usually only happens in years when the market is on an upswing, not experiencing a downturn as it is now.

Since President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariff policy over a week ago and sent global markets into turmoil, the U.S. stock market has lost trillions in wealth. All the major indices such as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down for the year after markets reacted extremely negatively to Trump’s new trade policy. 

The major selloff induced by the new Trump policy reversed what was shaping up to be another good year in the markets. Investors and analysts had expected the U.S. stock market to continue to deliver solid returns, even if it did slow down from the record-setting pace of the previous two years. In fact, Trump’s election brought a new wave of market optimism, as initially stocks soared on the back of what many had viewed as a pro-business president. 

Now the opposite is true. Markets are sinking on the back of the uncertainty Trump injected into the U.S. economy since he returned to the White House. 

To make up for the losses they’ve incurred so far this year, the major U.S. stock indices—the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow—would all have to rally to an extent that isn’t unheard of, but has only ever happened in good years. 

However, a strong year in 2025 seems unlikely. Since the market crash caused by Trump’s tariff announcements, most major Wall Street banks have revised their annual forecasts for the economy to reflect the ongoing downturn. Some of those banks even called for a recession as the stock market slide coincided with cratering bond markets and a devaluing of the U.S. dollar. 

Through Friday, the S&P 500 is down 8.8%—a stark reversal from the rip-roaring gains of 2023 and 2024 that together accounted for the best two-year stretch since 1998. 

In order to turn around that loss and end the year flat, the S&P 500 would need to rise 9.4% from its closing price on April 11 to Dec. 31. In that case, investors won’t have lost any money, but they wouldn’t have gained a cent either. 

A similar or better growth rate from April 11 to the end of the year isn’t completely out of the ordinary for the S&P 500. In fact, it’s happened 22 times since the modern day version of the index was established in 1957. While that sounds like good news, investors shouldn’t be too quick to rejoice. The S&P 500 only grows 9.4% or more from April 11 onwards in bull years, not during down markets like 2025, according to data supplied by wealth manager AssetMark and Fortune’s calculations. The worst performing such year, 2016, had a total annual return of 12%. The best year, 1958, had a juicy 43.4% annual return. Across all 22 years that fit that criteria, the average annual return was 27%.  

In other words, the S&P 500 soars from April through December when the market is ripping, not when it’s limping toward a zero percent return. 

To be sure, there is a notable precedent for a market crisis early in the year turning into a year of major gains. In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 had the best April 11-to-December performance on record, with gains of 34.6% over that time period. That led to an overall annual return of 18.4%. However, those market slumps were caused by different reasons. In 2020, markets reacted to the spread of a highly infectious disease for which there wasn’t yet a cure, while this time around they were responding to a trade policy intentionally implemented by an elected official. 

Potential recoveries for the Nasdaq and the Dow have the same dynamics as those of the S&P 500. They need to rise by a reasonable rate, but one that only happens when the stock market is flourishing, not when it’s trying to resuscitate itself. 

Analysts now expect 2025’s stock market performance to be worse than they forecasted at the start of the year. In December 2024, the Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500 had a median price target of 6,625, according to data from LSEG. That would have meant a 12.9% increase for 2025 based on where the S&P 500 opened on Jan. 2.   

Over the last week, a slew of banks lowered their forecasts for the S&P 500 far below the median from the start of the year. BMO revised its slightly bullish call of 6,700 to 6,100. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast twice this year, from 6,500 to 6,200 and then again to 5,700. The second Goldman revision would imply a loss of 2.8% this year. UBS and RBC also expect a loss for the year. 

In 2025, the Nasdaq is down 10.9%. The decline is a 180 from where the index started the year, topping 22,000 in February. The Nasdaq would need to rise 12.2% to end the year where it started at 20.975.62. It’s not a rarity to see a 12% rally from April to December. It’s happened 20 times since Nasdaq was established in 1985, according to AssetMark’s data and Fortune’s calculations. But again, it only happens in positive years. The worst year with at least a 12.2% run-up in our time frame, 1992, had an 8.9% annual return. The best return of the batch was 1999, which had a 102% return.  

The Dow, which was spared the worst of the crash, is down 5.1% in 2025. In order to finish the year without a loss, the Dow would need to rise 5.4% for the rest of the year. The Dow’s historical performance might offer investors a sliver of hope. Out of the 35 times since 1958 when it has grown at least 5.4% from April 11 to December, there was one year the index didn’t finish positive. In 1984, the Dow grew 7.1% over that span, while ending the year with a total loss of -3.7%. But for the most part, the 35 previous years that fit our criteria did coincide with strong growth. The average for the Dow in those years was 18.6%. The best year was 1975, which had a 38.2% return for the year.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

China’s government said the US decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs is a small step toward rectifying its wrongdoings and urged Washington to do more to revoke the levies.

President Donald Trump’s administration excluded smartphones, computers and other electronics from the increased import duties on Friday, narrowing the scope of his tariffs of 125% on goods from China and a baseline 10% on imports from most other countries.

“This is a small step by the US toward correcting its wrongful action of unilateral ‘reciprocal tariffs’”, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement posted on its official WeChat account on Sunday. The ministry went on to urge the US to “take a big stride in completely abolishing the wrongful action, and return to the correct path of resolving differences through equal dialog based on mutual respect.”

Trump’s latest exemptions cover almost $390 billion in US imports based on official US 2024 trade statistics, including more than $101 billion from China, according to data compiled by Gerard DiPippo, associate director of the Rand China Research Center.

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Trump on Saturday declined to elaborate on the exemptions beyond the published memoranda but hinted at further developments on Monday.

“I’ll give you that answer on Monday. We’ll be very specific on Monday,” he told reporters on Air Force One. “We’re taking in a lot of money; as a country we’re taking in a lot of money.”

The White House also released a corresponding memo indicating that the exemptions also extend to changes in small-parcel shipping duties. Trump had moved to end the so-called “de minimis” exemption, beginning with China, that generally means parcels worth $800 or below don’t face duties.

The tariff reprieve may prove fleeting. The exclusions stem from the initial order, which prevented extra tariffs on certain sectors from stacking cumulatively on top of the country-wide rates. The exclusion is a sign that the products may soon be subject to a different tariff, albeit almost surely a lower one for China.

The products that won’t be subject to Trump’s new tariffs include machines used to make semiconductors. That would be important for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which has announced a major new investment in the US, as well as other chipmakers.

“All products that are properly classified in these listed provisions will be excluded from the reciprocal tariffs,” the notice said.

The move appeared to exclude the products from the 10% global baseline tariff on other countries, including Samsung Electronics Co.’s home of South Korea. 

Read More: Trump Floats Possible Exceptions to 10% Baseline Tariff

The tariff reprieve does not extend to a separate Trump levy on China — a 20% duty applied to pressure Beijing to crack down on fentanyl, including the shipment of precursor materials. Other previously existing levies, including those that predate Trump’s current term, also appear unaffected.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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• Liberty Media’s Formula 1 is looking to sell a U.S. TV package for $150 million to $180 million per year, according to the Wall Street Journal. That’s nearly double what ESPN is estimated to pay now to broadcast the sport.

Liberty Media’s Formula 1 is looking to sell a U.S. media rights package for $150 million to $180 million per year, according to a Wall Street Journal report. 

That’s not an official asking price, but it would be up to double what the current rights deal is reportedly worth, sources told the Journal. The new contract is slated to begin with the 2026 season. 

Liberty did not respond to a request for comment.

Since 2018, Formula 1 has been airing in the U.S. on ESPN, which originally obtained the broadcast rights for free after NBC decided to forgo a renewal of its $4 million deal. 

After Liberty Media acquired Formula 1 in 2017, it prioritized expanding it the U.S. The sport has added American destinations to its circuit in Miami, Las Vegas, and Austin, Texas, while Netflix’s docuseries Drive to Survive was also a hit among U.S. audiences. 

That helped boost F1’s U.S. viewership, which more than doubled from about 550,000 in 2018 to 1.2 million in 2022, when ESPN inked a three-year extension for a price that’s been estimated at $75 million-$90 million a year. 

ESPN’s rights to broadcast F1 expire at the end of the 2025 season, and the company owned by Disney declined to negotiate further during its exclusive window, according to the Journal. 

Additionally, Puck News reported that Disney will not pursue a new deal once its current one runs out. But F1 CEO Stefano Domeniciali said during a February earnings call that although the exclusive negotiation period had passed, discussions were ongoing.

“The fact that at the end of the exclusivity period they have not put in place on a formal offer doesn’t mean that the discussions aren’t going ahead,” Domenicali said. “Actually, it’s the other way around. So there are still a lot of discussion to try to find the best solution.”

ESPN declined to comment to Fortune on its negotiations with F1.

F1’s U.S. media rights package is estimated to be worth more than $100 million per year, but not the $180 million Liberty Media reportedly seeks, according to Ampere Analysis, a research firm.

That’s as viewership has dipped slightly from 1.2 million in 2022 to 1.1 million in 2024, according to Nielsen data cited by the Journal.

For comparison, that figure is 26% less than an average baseball game on ESPN’s coverage of Sunday Night Baseball. ESPN is reportedly paying $550 million per season for Major League Baseball rights, though that arrangement is ending at the end of 2025.

Other major leagues across the U.S. have signed bombshell TV deals. Notably, last year, the National Basketball Association signed a $2.6 billion-a-year deal with Disney. And in 2021, the National Football League closed a deal with CBS, Disney, Fox, NBC, and Amazon worth more than $11 billion a year. 

Although F1 garners international attention, race times for U.S. viewers are not optimal, with many starting around midnight into early Sunday mornings.

Liberty Media CEO Derek Chang said he’s looking to increase fan exposure along with finding the most lucrative deal, but he acknowledges the shifting media landscape. 

“The whole media world is a very fluid situation,” Chang told the Journal.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com