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Some US oil executives see disaster in Trump’s agenda while dismissing ‘drill, baby, drill’ as a ‘myth and populist rallying cry’

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  • The Dallas Fed’s latest energy survey revealed deep skepticism among executives toward President Donald Trump’s tariffs and oil-production agenda. In anonymous comments, respondents decried the uncertainty and higher costs of tariffs while predicting that trying to lower crude prices to $50 a barrel would reduce production instead of expand it.

In anonymous comments collected by the Dallas Fed, some US oil and gas executives didn’t pull their punches as they criticized key policies of President Donald Trump.

Most respondents decried the uncertainty and higher costs from his tariffs, while others said plans to sharply lower crude prices are incompatible with a major expansion in energy production.

“The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability,” one executive said.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump has already slapped tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, steel, aluminum and autos, while threatening duties on pharmaceuticals, chips, lumber and the European Union. He has said reciprocal tariffs will be unveiled on April 2, though he is reportedly pushing for even more aggressive levies and potentially a universal duty.

The on-again, off-again rollout of Trump’s prior tariffs has given businesses and consumers whiplash. Meanwhile, US refineries import oil from Canada and Mexico, while producers rely on imported metals for drilling operations.

Despite pumping record amounts of oil during the Biden administration, the energy industry largely backed Trump and celebrated his return to office.

But Trump officials have since targeted oil as part of their strategy to cool inflation and induce the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. In particular, the administration has suggested crude at $50 a barrel, helped by a massive increase in supply from expanded production.

Now the honeymoon appears to be over, as the industry warns $50 a barrel wouldn’t be economically feasible.

“The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19,” another oil executive warned.

Yet another said, “I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career.”

To be sure, some respondents welcomed Trump’s shift away from climate-change policies and his openness to boosting exports of liquid natural gas.

But the overall tone was gloomy, and the Dallas Fed’s business activity index dropped to 3.8 in the first quarter from 6.0 in the fourth quarter

The company outlook index plunged 12 points to -4.9, suggesting pessimism among firms, and the outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 points to 43.1.

“The political climate caused by the new presidential administration appears to be creating instability. Energy markets are not exempt from the loss of public faith in all markets,” one executive said.

The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey last month showed that even in conservative parts of the country that voted for Trump, executives reported a collapse in business conditions amid tariff uncertainty.

That came after separate surveys from other regional Fed banks found deterioration in the economic outlook as well as plans for capital spending.

Meanwhile, consumers have turned negative too as Trump’s steep federal layoffs and tariffs weigh on their perceptions of the job market and inflation.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s latest survey revealed consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month.

Notably, the survey’s expectations Index—which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years “and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Massive global Trump tariff selloff continues as Asian markets and U.S. dollar drop for second day

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Asian shares slid further Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent shudders through Wall Street at a level of shock unseen since the COVID-19 pandemic pummeled world markets in 2020.

Everything from crude oil to Big Tech stocks to the value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has fallen. Even gold, a traditional safe haven that recently hit record highs, pulled lower after Trump announced his “Liberation Day” set of tariffs,’ which economists say carries the risk of a potentially toxic mix of weakening economic growth and higher inflation.

Markets in Shanghai, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Indonesia were closed for holidays, limiting the scope of Friday’s sell-offs in Asia.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 4.3% to 33,263.58, while South Korea’s Kospi sank 1.8% to 2,441.86.

The two U.S. allies said they were focused on negotiating lower tariffs with Trump’s administration.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 2.2% to 7,684.30.

In other trading early Friday, the U.S. dollar fell to 145.39 Japanese yen from 146.06. The yen is often used as a refuge in uncertain times, while Trump’s policies are meant in part to weaken the dollar to make goods made in the U.S. more price competitive overseas. The euro gained to $1.1095 from $1.1055.

Trump announced a minimum tariff of 10% on global imports, with the tax rate running much higher on products from certain countries like China and those from the European Union. Smaller, poorer countries in Asia were slapped with tariffs as high as 49%.

It’s “plausible” the tariffs altogether, which would rival levels unseen in more than a century, could knock down U.S. economic growth by 2 percentage points this year and raise inflation close to 5%, according to UBS.

That’s such a big hit it “makes one’s rational mind regard the possibility of them sticking as low,” according to Bhanu Baweja and other strategists at UBS.

Trump has previously said tariffs could cause “a little disturbance” in the economy and markets. On Thursday he downplayed the impact.

“The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom and the country is going to boom,” Trump said as he left the White House to fly to Florida.

The S&P 500 sank 4.8% to 5,396.52 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4% to 40,545.93. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 6% to 16,550.61.

Some of the worst hits walloped smaller U.S. companies, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks dropped 6.6% to pull more than 20% below its record.

Four of every five that make up the S&P 500 declined.

Best Buy fell 17.8% because the electronics that it sells are made all over the world. United Airlines lost 15.6% because customers worried about the global economy may not fly as much for business or feel comfortable enough to take vacations. Target tumbled 10.9% amid worries that its customers, already squeezed by still-high inflation, may be under even more stress.

Investors knew Trump was going to announce sweeping new tariffs, and fears surrounding it had already pulled Wall Street’s main measure of health, the S&P 500 index, 10% below its all-time high.

Some analysts and investors believed Trump might use tariffs simply as a tool for negotiations, rather than as a long-term policy. But he indicated Wednesday that he sees them as a way to bring factory jobs back to the United States, which could take years.

The Federal Reserve could cut interest rates to support the economy, but lower rates can push up inflation, already a worry given that U.S. households are bracing for sharp increases to their bills due to the tariffs.

Yields on Treasurys tumbled in part on rising expectations for coming cuts to rates, along with general fear about the health of the U.S. economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.04% from 4.20% late Wednesday and from roughly 4.80% in January.

A report Thursday said fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week, better than economists were expecting. A separate report said activity for U.S. transportation, finance and other businesses in the services industry grew last month, but by less than forecast.

Also early Friday, U.S. benchmark crude oil shed 70 cents to $66.25 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, was down 64 cents at $69.50 a barrel.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Volkswagen working to ‘quantify the impact’ of Trump tariffs on U.S. sales

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Volkswagen said Thursday it was examining the impact of new US tariffs on foreign cars after the German auto giant was reported to be planning price hikes to offset higher import charges.

Asked about the reports, a Volkswagen spokesman told AFP that the carmaker was assessing its options.

“We have our dealers’ and customers’ best interests at heart, and once we have quantified the impact on the business we will share our strategy with our dealers,” he said.

Citing a Volkswagen memo to dealers in the United States, trade publication Automotive News reported that manufacturer planned to add an “import fee” to cars it ships into the country.

Volkswagen also indicated it would pause rail shipments of vehicles made in Mexico to the United States, Automotive News said.

US President Donald Trump gave German auto manufacturers another headache on Wednesday after he slapped 25-percent tariffs on car imports into the country.

Carmakers like Volkswagen are already struggling with a stuttering shift to electric vehicles as well as fierce Chinese competition.

Volkswagen, a 10-brand group which also includes Seat and Skoda, said in December that it would cut 35,000 jobs by 2035.

Last year, the firm sold just over one million vehicles in North America, representing 12 percent of its sales by volume.

About 65 percent of the cars it sells under its namesake brand are shipped into the United States. The same figure rises to 100 percent for its high-end Audi and Porsche brands.

Late Tuesday, the head of the German car lobby, the VDA, called on the EU to react “forcefully” to the new US tariffs and to negotiate.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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UnitedHealthcare and other major insurance companies pull company and board leadership bios from their websites after executive’s killing

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In the aftermath of the tragic shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, health insurance companies are removing web pages that list their executives and boards of directors. 

A day after Thompson was fatally gunned down outside a New York City hotel on the way to UnitedHealth Group’s investor day, company pages on the websites of major health insurers that previously listed their senior leadership teams redirected elsewhere. UnitedHealthcare is a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group.

Executive and board of directors bios are common on most company websites, both public and private. Now it appears that major insurers including UnitedHealthcare, Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield, and its parent company, Elevance Health, all took down those pages, likely as precautionary measures. 

Elevance Health, Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield, and UnitedHealthcare did not respond to a request for comment. 

Archived versions of the web pages show that they were active on Wednesday. However, as of the publication of this article, those same URLs redirected internet users to other pages on the company’s site. 

For example, United Healthcare’s “About Us” page previously had a subheading that linked to headshots and brief bios of the company’s various executives, including Thompson. Now, that same web address redirects to the company’s homepage, uhc.com. 

Elevance Health, the Indianapolis-based health care conglomerate, also took down a site that featured its company executives. Instead that page now redirects to Elevance’s homepage. 

The website of Elevance-owned Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield performed similarly. The page that showed its executives now links only to the general landing page for the “About Us” section of the website. The insurer made headlines earlier this week over its intention to implement a new policy in New York, Missouri, and Connecticut that would limit reimbursements for anesthesia costs. However, the company pulled back on that proposal later in the week amid widespread criticism. 

The corporate world found itself grappling with the question of executive safety in the wake of Thompson’s murder. The nature of the shooting, which happened on a street corner in Midtown Manhattan, underscored the level of danger certain executives might face—even if they do not expect it. 

Across the business landscape, major corporations raised the levels of security afforded their executives. In the meantime, private security firms reported a marked increase in business inquiries since the shooting. 

Disclosure: UnitedHealth administers Fortune Media’s employer-sponsored health insurance plan. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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