For the last few years, Nike Inc. prioritized a multi-billion-dollar sneaker franchise that helped the world’s largest sportswear company reach its lofty revenue goals. Now that franchise is sputtering.
Nike
Sales of Nike Dunk, a 1980s basketball shoe worn more on the streets these days than on the court, are expected to plummet 70% over two years as new leadership dials back the company’s dependence on its classic sneakers and makes way for other fresh sneaker designs, according to new estimates from analysts at Piper Sandler.
That drastic drop signals a fundamental realignment in how Nike does business as new Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill, a company veteran who came out of retirement to take the top job in October, tries to stage a comeback after a grim year of falling sales and corporate layoffs. One of Nike’s biggest problems: too many Dunks.
“We will return to the discipline of franchise management that I was a part of for so many years,” Hill told investors in December shortly after becoming CEO. He wants to renew the longtime Nike tactic of keeping goods just scarce enough that shoppers still clamor for more. “We’ve already started managing the inventory in our marketplaces.”
Prior to its Dunk problem, Nike had shown remarkable prowess managing its product lines, cycling in and out of fashion trends by retiring or reducing some styles in favor of others — only to bring them back when the time was right. In 2020, for example, Nike capitalized on docu-series The Last Dance, which featured Michael Jordan, with a line of retro Jordan releases that renewed the franchise.
Hill is steering Nike back toward performance shoes used in sports and training, and has vowed to reduce the size of three lifestyle sneaker lines — Air Force 1s, Air Jordan 1s and Dunks — to balance the retailer’s product offerings. Demand for these classics has waned over the past year.
Of these franchises, Dunk is set to face the “most aggressive actions,” Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said earlier this month. A representative for Nike declined to provide additional comment on the matter.
In fiscal 2024, Dunks accounted for about 18% of Nike’s total footwear sales, or about $5.85 billion, according to the Piper Sandler estimates. Analysts predict that the business will shrink to just $1.75 billion in Nike’s next fiscal year, which begins in June.
“If you don’t innovate and become overly reliant on what’s worked, you lose share,” said Anna Andreeva, a Piper Sandler analyst who co-authored the report. Analysts examined projected sales for the fiscal year ending in May 2026 compared with estimated sales two years earlier. “That’s essentially what’s happened in the last few years. The current leadership is trying to correct it, which we think is the right thing.”
Nike Dunk had been the world’s hottest sneaker franchise under previous CEO John Donahoe. Last year, Friend told investors that Dunk represented virtually zero sales prior to 2020. A series of hit collaborations with the likes of Travis Scott and the Grateful Dead, then the rise of the black-and-white Panda Dunk, sparked a renaissance for the decades-old line.
As demand rose, Nike looked to sate consumers by releasing new Dunks constantly in every possible color combination and lined up collaborations with everyone from the Wu-Tang Clan to the Powerpuff Girls. Sneaker reseller Goat Group Inc. now has nearly 4,700 different Nike Dunks listed on its marketplace.
“Nike was putting up numbers with the Dunks,” culture magazine Complex wrote. “Nike was making these paint-by-number, every-shade-of-Pantone Dunks by the boatload, with nearly a new one coming out every week.”
By September 2023, it was among the largest sneaker lines in history and had spearheaded Nike’s growth to $50 billion in annual revenue. In the 2024 fiscal year, the Dunk business was as large as Air Force 1 and Jordan 1 combined, according to Piper Sandler data.
The strategy worked until shoppers got sick of the shoes. Last March, Regis Schultz, the CEO of Nike’s key European retail partner JD Sports, warned his investors that demand for Nike Dunk was dwindling. By June, sales were sinking.
This month, Hill said that Dunk and the other classic shoes will retain an important place in Nike’s lineup, but they’ll be a smaller part of the streetwear portfolio. He pointed at shoes like the Air Superfly and LD-1000 as prospective hot sellers. Friend added that in most regions, growth in areas such as running, training and basketball shoes nearly offset those declines in lifestyle footwear.
“The teams are taking all the right actions against those key footwear franchises,” said Hill.
Nike could soon face another blow in its effort to revive its brand and reverse a long decline in sales: U.S. tariffs on imports from Vietnam.
Reuters
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce which countries and products he will target with a new round of tariffs aimed at encouraging domestic production and coaxing other nations to buy more U.S. goods.
Vietnam, which runs a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the United States, is a prime target.
Nike is one of several sportswear brands heavily reliant on Vietnam as a production site and higher tariffs would force the company to absorb higher costs or hike its prices at a time when it is already discounting some items to clear inventory.
Nike produced 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam in its 2024 financial year, according to its annual report. Rival Adidas, opens new tab is slightly less exposed, relying on Vietnam for 39% of its footwear and 18% of its apparel.
The average U.S. tariff rate on footwear from Vietnam is 13.6%, while the rate on apparel is 18.8%, according to calculations, opens new tab based on January trade data made by Sheng Lu, professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware.
“If tariffs are extended there, then Nike’s got a problem,” said Morningstar analyst David Swartz. Nike and Adidas are hardly alone. Vietnam has become a hub for high-tech running shoes, sportswear, and outdoor apparel as brands have sought to reduce exposure to China, opens new tab. Lululemon, opens new tab, Columbia Sportswear, and Amer Sports, opens new tab, which owns Salomon and Arc’Teryx, count Vietnam as their top manufacturing country.
But the potential tariffs come at a critical moment for Nike, which has lost market share of late to competitors viewed as fresher and more innovative, like On and Hoka.
In a quarterly earnings call last month, Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said Nike’s revenue was expected to continue to fall next quarter.
That outlook factored in current tariffs, said Mari Shor, senior equities analyst with Columbia Threadneedle Investments, which holds Nike shares. “But what if it gets worse?”
Some smaller, younger sportswear brands are even more exposed to Vietnam. Fast-growing running brand On in 2024 sourced 90% of its shoes and 60% of its apparel and accessories from the country.
On shoes are already expensive, selling for $130 to $330 a pair, and Samuel Wenger, the brand’s chief operating officer, said tariffs were among the factors On considers when deciding on price. “Our premium brand gives us the ability to adapt our pricing thoughtfully,” he told Reuters.
Average U.S. prices of sneakers have already risen by 25% since 2019, partly because of rising production costs, said Beth Goldstein, footwear industry analyst at market research firm Circana.
Wilbur Ross, who served as commerce secretary in Trump’s first administration, said the president had generally good ties with Vietnam and had no reason to hit it hard with tariffs that would be felt on main street.
“People notice the cost of apparel because they buy it fairly frequently,” Ross told Reuters.
Led by designer Zac Posen, the collection, which debuts for Spring 2025, gives a fashion-forward spin on the brand’s classic wardrobe staples.
Zac Posen brings his elevated vision to GapStudio. – Photographed by Mario Sorrenti.
“Gap, but make it elevated.” That is the mandate by the Executive Vice President, Creative Director of Gap Inc., and Chief Creative Officer of Old Navy Zac Posen, which has set forth for the brand’s new GapStudio offerings. Since taking the reins in February 2024, Posen has overseen all four brands—Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, and Athleta—and has infused his designer sensibilities into the mass-market sportswear and athletic offerings. Besides churning out great merch, Posen’s task is bringing cultural relevance back to the brand that has ebbed and flowed in the fashion conversation.
Debuting its first fully merchandised GapStudio collection, Posen spoke to FashionNetwork.com from its Tribeca headquarters about the new venture for the American brand most famous for its “normcore” aesthetic.
“Shortly after joining, I had an amazing opportunity to dress Da’Vine Joy Randolph (Academy Award winner for Best Supporting Role in the movie “The Holdovers”). I put together a studio of freelance designers to introduce an artisanal clothing creation process.
The day after, Anne Hathaway wanted a white shirtdress, so that happened. We produced it quickly, and it sold out quickly. Soon after, Gap Inc. CEO Richard Dixon and Gap brand president and CEO Mark Breitbard considered the GapStudio idea. It’s important that you are performing while transforming and continuing to operate.
The idea was to create one-of-a-kind cultural moments, such as the red carpet, and have a studio as a creative incubator to make this elevated capsule collection that references the codes of the Gap but further evolves them. It’s a bit younger, bringing in younger customers while keeping existing ones. It’s a really important space to play with,” Posen said.
While select pieces were introduced previously, Spring 2025, aka Collection 01, marks the first complete collection, which will bow at ten select locations in the U.S. and internationally in London, Dubai, Mexico City, Prague, Tokyo, and online at Zalando. In New York, the Flatiron store, Times Square, and the East 86th Street location will carry GapStudio. The collection will also be available online at Gap.com under its own vertical.
The collection—which focuses on “style, craftsmanship and quality,” according to a brand release—sees a tailored blazer for $178, something Posen felt was missing; a trench coat at $248; lots of wide-legged denim; miniskirts and bloomer-style skirts; long slip dresses; jersey tank dresses; and shirting-style dresses that, in khaki and white respectively, for example, play upon the brand’s codes of khaki pants, white T-shirts, and tailored shirts, as well as the infamous denim.
The collections also feature luxe knits in tops and dresses Posen says are perfect for date nights and edgy denim corsets and bralettes that beckon Gen Z. The founders’ Donald and Doris Fisher art collection also inspired a cut-out detail on a dress back. A sneak peek at the Summer 2025 collection included breezy, lightweight styles in denim-effect chambray and indigo tie-dye.
“Gap is deeply rooted in an amazing merchandising history, creating it as a modern formula. It changed the game. As we look to the customers of the future, we learn from that incredible knowledge, especially with today’s analytics and data. At the same time, it’s essential to remember creativity—and my role as creative director includes protecting the creative community at all my companies—so we can balance that with the design language. That dialogue will take us to the future with the customer,” Posen continued.
Posen was also quick to point out his fascination with the denim finish process and the origins of the fiber, which comes from cotton and indigo plants. “Working with the washhouses is so cool. People don’t realize how artisanal even getting a seam like this that has been brushed is,” he added.
Also cool is Posen bringing stylist Alistair McKimm into GapStudio to consult. Posen is returning the denim brand to its glory days for the campaign by enlisting Mario Sorrenti to shoot it, featuring Alex Consani, Imaan Hammam, and Anok Yai. In the past, photography legends such as Albert Watson, Annie Leibovitz, Steven Meisel, and the late Patrick Demarchelier have shot for the brand.
Alex Consani, Imaan Hammam, and Anok Yai in GapStudio’s Spring 2025 denim collection. – Photo credits: Mario Sorrenti
“I needed to bring in somebody I thought understood to capture those iconic moments. So, you can see one of our images just starting to see this different kind of elevated vision,” Posen said, pointing to a teaser image of the campaign of three models in the white knit T-shirts and jeans.
Whether the images will resonate with Gen Z, who tend to view the Gap as their parents’ brand, Posen says that data shows headway into the younger consumer in the past year, partly because of moments with celebrities like Randolph and Hathaway but also a surprising stat.
“We’ve entered into cultural zeitgeist with campaigns that we’ve had, and it’s reentered the conversation and been reintroduced. Younger audiences are shopping again in stores; malls are back. They’re filled on the weekends, becoming an experience again. Maybe the original target was nostalgia, but they’ve rediscovered the brand and have reclaimed it on their own,” Posen noted, citing data to back it up.
In elevating the collection, Posen didn’t rule out leather, suede, cashmere, and other luxe materials in subsequent collections. Roughly twenty years ago, earlier designs involved higher-end materials.
Photo credits: Mario Sorrenti
“It’s always interesting to find interesting ways to bring in hints of luxury that a customer will appreciate, but we have very strong standards in production, sustainability, et cetera, so they have to fit into the scheme. It’s not easy to find things that fit the price and meet the sustainability markers,” Posen noted.
He was also quick to differentiate the new offerings from Banana Republic, which long held Gap’s “elevated” offering. “It’s a different customer and price point and more fashion-forward,” he said, noting that as they sell jeans at three of the four Gap brands, keeping an eye on each’s own POV is his job.
Denim trends may be the strongest style indicator across the consumer sector; it’s obvious to see a shift. Lately, the runways in Europe have signaled the return of skinny jeans, which didn’t stay dormant long enough for some.
“Skinny jeans, whatever floats your boat. We make enough styles that you can find your fit or style. Old Navy this year, we have every fit from the Rockstar to the Pixie and trend pants that flow there. At Gap, we have the Nineties, low-rise, high-rise,” he suggested, adding. “We watch trend curves and follow analytics and even AI. But another thing you do as a designer is to be a cultural receiver dish, have your finger in the wind, and fuel stuff, too.”
Capri Holdings’ finance and operations head, Thomas Edwards, will leave the U.S. luxury holding company to assume similar roles at department store chain Macy’s.
At Macy’s, Edwards, who will join in June, will help strengthen CEO Tony Spring’s years-long turnaround efforts, which have focused on cost cutting and boosting luxury sales.
The change comes as Capri looks to rebuild its business following the demise of its $8.5 billion deal with Tapestry, and reports of Italian luxury group Prada moving closer to a deal for its Versace brand.
Shares of Macy’s, which reiterated its first-quarter sales and profit forecasts, rose nearly 3% in early trading. Capri’s shares fell 1%.
In March, Capri said Donatella Versace would step down as the main designer for Versace after almost three decades, further fueling talks of a sale of the iconic brand.
Macy’s has struggled as customers paused purchases of non-essential items such as apparel and footwear due to sticky inflation.
CEO Spring has laid out plans to close 150 namesake stores through 2026, reinvest in high-potential locations and rely on its luxury outlets Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury to lift sales.
“Macy’s is definitely making a bigger push in luxury in general … maybe that was a reason why they were interested in hiring a CFO from a company in a luxury space,” said Morningstar analyst David Swartz.
Edwards, who will remain with Capri until June 20, will replace Adrian Mitchell. Mitchell, 51, appointed finance head in 2020, took on the operations head role in March 2023 when Spring was named the CEO.
Capri unit Michael Kors‘ Rajal Mehta will become the interim CFO of the parent firm, the company said.