• The Dallas Fed’s latest energy survey revealed deep skepticism among executives toward President Donald Trump’s tariffs and oil-production agenda. In anonymous comments, respondents decried the uncertainty and higher costs of tariffs while predicting that trying to lower crude prices to $50 a barrel would reduce production instead of expand it.

In anonymous comments collected by the Dallas Fed, some US oil and gas executives didn’t pull their punches as they criticized key policies of President Donald Trump.

Most respondents decried the uncertainty and higher costs from his tariffs, while others said plans to sharply lower crude prices are incompatible with a major expansion in energy production.

“The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability,” one executive said.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump has already slapped tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, steel, aluminum and autos, while threatening duties on pharmaceuticals, chips, lumber and the European Union. He has said reciprocal tariffs will be unveiled on April 2, though he is reportedly pushing for even more aggressive levies and potentially a universal duty.

The on-again, off-again rollout of Trump’s prior tariffs has given businesses and consumers whiplash. Meanwhile, US refineries import oil from Canada and Mexico, while producers rely on imported metals for drilling operations.

Despite pumping record amounts of oil during the Biden administration, the energy industry largely backed Trump and celebrated his return to office.

But Trump officials have since targeted oil as part of their strategy to cool inflation and induce the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. In particular, the administration has suggested crude at $50 a barrel, helped by a massive increase in supply from expanded production.

Now the honeymoon appears to be over, as the industry warns $50 a barrel wouldn’t be economically feasible.

“The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19,” another oil executive warned.

Yet another said, “I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career.”

To be sure, some respondents welcomed Trump’s shift away from climate-change policies and his openness to boosting exports of liquid natural gas.

But the overall tone was gloomy, and the Dallas Fed’s business activity index dropped to 3.8 in the first quarter from 6.0 in the fourth quarter

The company outlook index plunged 12 points to -4.9, suggesting pessimism among firms, and the outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 points to 43.1.

“The political climate caused by the new presidential administration appears to be creating instability. Energy markets are not exempt from the loss of public faith in all markets,” one executive said.

The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey last month showed that even in conservative parts of the country that voted for Trump, executives reported a collapse in business conditions amid tariff uncertainty.

That came after separate surveys from other regional Fed banks found deterioration in the economic outlook as well as plans for capital spending.

Meanwhile, consumers have turned negative too as Trump’s steep federal layoffs and tariffs weigh on their perceptions of the job market and inflation.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s latest survey revealed consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month.

Notably, the survey’s expectations Index—which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years “and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.”

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The head of the Federal Communications Commission ordered an investigation into Walt Disney Co. and its ABC network over their diversity, equity and inclusion practices, broadening his examination of media and telecom companies for perceived discriminatory biases. 

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr directed the agency’s Enforcement Bureau to “ensure that Disney and ABC have not been violating FCC equal employment opportunity regulations by promoting invidious forms of DEI discrimination.” 

Carr specifically called out policies at Disney including its “Reimagine Tomorrow” initiative designed to advance its DEI mission and inclusion standards across ABC that require “50% of regular and recurring characters” be drawn from “underrepresented groups,” according to a letter Carr wrote to Disney Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger and posted on X on Friday. 

“Disney started out a century ago as an iconic American company,” Carr wrote. “But then something changed. Disney has now been embroiled in rounds of controversy surrounding its DEI policies.”

Since being appointed by President Donald Trump earlier this year, Carr has sent similar letters to Verizon Communications Inc. and Comcast Corp. He recently told Bloomberg that a company’s DEI practices would affect its chances of receiving merger approval.

Carr noted that Disney has recently walked back some of its DEI initiatives but said “significant concerns remain.” Earlier this year Disney said it would end the Reimagine Tomorrow program that Carr called out. The company is also removing diversity from the criteria for determining manager compensation. 

“We are reviewing the Federal Communications Commission’s letter, and we look forward to engaging with the commission to answer its questions,” a spokesperson for Disney said.

Disney’s modern remake of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs hit theaters earlier this month under a deluge of criticism, including over casting an actress of Colombian heritage as the title character and the re-imagining of the seven dwarfs.

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• President Donald Trump is pressing his staff to take a harder stance on tariffs as part of an effort to transform the US economy, sources told the Washington Post. That could include a universal tariff that hits most imports without regard to the country of origin. The discussions come right before April 2, which Trump has billed as “Liberation Day,” when his next batch of tariffs will be unveiled.

As part of an effort to fundamentally transform the US economy, President Donald Trump has been pushing his staff to get even more aggressive on tariffs, sources told the Washington Post.

That could include a universal tariff that hits most imports, no matter which country they are from, the report said, adding that Trump views a single duty as less likely to be watered down by exemptions.

Intense discussions are ongoing ahead of April 2, which Trump has billed as “Liberation Day,” when his next batch of tariffs will be unveiled.

For now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “dirty 15” plan to set tariffs on the 15% of countries that the administration considers the worst trading partners is seen as the most likely outcome, according to the Post.

“There’s still a lot of options still on the table. They are considering everything and trying very hard to make the idea of a reciprocal tariff both understandable to the American public and effective,” Wilbur Ross, Trump’s commerce secretary during his first term, told the Post. “They are quite correctly exploring every alternative in the hope they come to the best possible solution.”

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump has already slapped tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, steel, aluminum and autos, while threatening duties on pharmaceuticals, chips, lumber and the European Union.

He said reciprocal tariffs would come out on April 2, but suggested he would show some “flexibility.” And earlier reports that said those would be more targeted raised hopes on Wall Street that their impact would be less severe.

But after stocks rallied, his announcement of the auto tariffs on Wednesday contributed to another selloff, which was also fueled by signs that tariffs were worsening inflation and consumers’ expectations of future inflation.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently warned that inflation expectations could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins has said tariff-induced inflation “looks inevitable,” adding that he suspects the central bank will hold rates steady for longer.

After their most recent policy meeting this month, Fed officials lowered their forecasts for economic growth and raised their inflation estimates, raising the specter of “stagflation.”

Meanwhile, surveys of consumers and businesses show that they are turning increasingly gloomy about the economy amid tariff uncertainty and mass federal layoffs. Even executives in deep-red states that voted for Trump say business conditions are collapsing.

And economists have been hiking recession odds, with some even seeing a 50-50 chance of a downturn.

Fitch Ratings previously estimated that If Trump carries out all his plans, the effective US tariff rate could hit 18% on average—the highest level in 90 years. 

Trump has acknowledged Americans will feel “some pain” from his tariffs but that they are necessary to revitalize US manufacturing and rebalance trade to more favorable terms.

While several companies have pledged to set up more factories in the US, Wall Street has warned that tariffs meant to reshuffle the auto sector, which has closely integrated supply chains across Canada and Mexico, will create chaos.

Still, the White House said the Trump administration is committed to delivering on his vision restore the US industrial base.

“America cannot just be an assembler of foreign-made parts—we must become a manufacturing powerhouse that dominates every step of the supply chain of industries that are critical for our national security and economic interests,” spokesman Kush Desai previously told Fortune.

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