Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

It’s Election Day in Florida, and the two congressional districts on the ballot are drawing national attention.

The Republican nominees — former CFO Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s 1st and former Sen. Randy Fine in Florida’s 6th — are both expected to win election, but Democrats are confident the results will show the party has a pulse after weak showings in the past several election cycles.

CD 1 is as close to a sure thing as possible for the GOP. The Panhandle-based district has the most lopsided electorate in the state, it’s R+19 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index and, if anything, that undersells it.

Last year, President Donald Trump carried the district with 68% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 31%. Arguably more relevant to today’s contest, Patronis won re-election there in 2022 with 73% of the vote.

In that election, Patronis was miles ahead in fundraising, but Democrat Gay Valimont flipped the script in the CD 1 special, logging $6.5 million in contributions compared to about $2 million for Patronis.

The CD 6 race, where Fine is facing Democrat Josh Weil, is expected to be far closer. A recent St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics, put the race at 48%-44%, advantage Fine. That falls within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error and is a far cry from the 66.5% now-National Security Adviser Michael Waltz notched in November.

Just as in CD 1, fundraising has tilted toward Democrats—Weil claims he has raised more than $10 million, or tenfold more than Fine. Mail-in ballot returns are also offering Democrats a glimmer of hope. As of Monday morning, 19,095 mail-in ballots from Democrats had been received by elections officials, compared to 17,562 ballots from Republicans; another 7,519 ballots were received from third—and no-party voters.

Still, that’s not a cushion that can withstand the trend of Republicans running up the score in Election Day voting.

The polls close in CD 6 at 7 p.m. Eastern; voting wraps up at 7 p.m. Central in CD 1. Stay tuned to Florida Politics for full coverage of the results.

3Q

Charlie Bailes, executive vice president of ABC Fine Wine and Spirits, knows something about selling adult beverages. He has closely followed the policy debate around the marketing of hemp-infused drinks being debated in the Legislature now.

What is the chief policy priority for ABC as the Legislature creates a regulatory framework around hemp products?

THC drinks — this is our main point, I would say — must be kept out of reach and unavailable for sale to anyone under 21. That’s how the spirits industry works. Not only age restriction but access restriction. That is what we are looking for with THC bills: to limit access and not just age to purchase.

Does that mean preventing children from even entering a retail store with these drinks, the way minors can’t be allowed in a liquor store?

Yes. Anyone can go to a gas station, a Wawa, you name it. Both proposed bills from the House and Senate do a good job of limiting access. We are absolutely and fully engaged; we are concerned with how it works now. The world we live in, as long as anyone — a restaurant, retailer, a slushee place — if they have a license you can get from the Department of Agriculture, a license to sell hemp products, you can sell it. It is now unregulated. It’s more like the Wild, Wild West. It will continue if these bills don’t address that. We are concerned if nothing ends up being done.

How did you feel when Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a bill last year, and is a better product coming out of the Legislature now?

We believe the evolution needed to happen. Yes, we are very pleased with what has been proposed. Our main issue is limiting access. It’s all about public safety, the same with wine, spirits and beer. We try and apply that to THC as well.

Evening Reads

—”What to watch in today’s big elections in Wisconsin and Florida” via Reid J. Epstein and Emily Cochrane of The New York Times

—”Donald Trump-backed House candidates face unexpected competition in Florida” via Patrick Svitek of The Washington Post

—”Gay Valimont alleges voter suppression after precinct is relocated on day of Special Election” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—“‘Problematic’: Ron DeSantis says Trump got ‘bad advice’ to endorse Randy Fine” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—“Michael Waltz and staff used Gmail for government communications, officials say” via John Hudson of The Washington Post

—“ICE admits ‘administrative error’ in deporting Maryland man to El Salvador” via Ben Finley of The Associated Press

—”Top Trump USAID staffer accused of violent outbursts, racist remarks” via Jacqueline Sweet of Rolling Stone

—”Trump says he settled on ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan but doesn’t reveal it” via Gavin Bade, Brian Schwartz and Vipal Monga of The Wall Street Journal

—”The Democrats’ Michelle Obama problem” via Christian Paz of Vox

—”DeSantis charity is not complying with state laws, Florida House analysis says” via Lawrence Mower and Alexandra Glorioso of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Casey DeSantis defends Hope Florida before Senate committee vote” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Gov. DeSantis says Interim CFO imminent, with a full-time replacement next month” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”The new marriage of unequals” via Stephanie H. Murray of The Atlantic

Quote of the Day

“I think it’s almost physically impossible for a Republican to lose that district. So, I think we’re looking at a Republican victory, but an underperformance.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, dissing Fine in an interview with Dana Loesch.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

If you’re planning to commit a “dangerous” crime, first off, don’t. Second, don’t use an AirTag because you’ll drink Pruno for at least 15 years if the bill zipping through the Senate becomes law.

Election Day wouldn’t be the same without last-minute drama like the unannounced polling place swap in CD 1. For now, order a Dirty Trick Martini and grab some popcorn.

Sen. Joe Gruters gets a Full Sail now that his bill requiring School Boards to “adopt and acquire” materials using the Gulf of America name is ready for the Senate floor.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

U.S. Open Cup spotlight falls on South Florida

A pair of Florida teams will meet in the second round of the U.S. Open Cup tonight as Inter Miami II faces Miami FC (7:30 p.m. ET, YouTube).

The U.S. Open Cup is the oldest soccer competition in North America, dating back to 1914. The competition has been marred by controversy over the past two seasons as Major League Soccer limited the number of teams in the competition. Traditionally, lower-level leagues play in the early rounds, with MLS sides joining in the third or fourth rounds. But last year, citing schedule congestion, MLS withdrew its first teams from the 2024 competition before backtracking. The league then partially changed its approach, allowing a handful of teams to participate.

This season, MLS decided to include teams that missed out on the playoffs last year to participate, with playoff teams only sending the developmental squads from the third-tier MLS Next Pro, including Inter Miami.

Miami FC plays in the second-tier USL Championship and advanced to the second round after a 4-1 victory over Naples United on Mar. 18. Francisco Bonfiglio scored twice in the victory.

Inter Miami II topped Miami United of the fourth-division semi-professional UPSL 4-2 on Mar. 19 to advance. Yuval Cohen scored twice in the second half to secure the victory.

The winner of tonight’s match advances to the third round to face either Charlotte Independence of USL League One or Carolina Core FC of MLS Next Pro.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.

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As leaders in Tallahassee debate tax cuts, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott is making clear that he favors Speaker Daniel Perez’s approach.

The Naples Republican, who served two terms as Florida Governor, told Florida Politics he likes the proposal unveiled by the Florida House to cut sales taxes.

“We cut taxes over 100 times saving families over $1 billion when I was Governor so I think the state should cut taxes in every possible way,” Scott said. “Speaker Perez’s plan to cut the sales tax would help every Floridian — especially poor families like mine growing up.”

Perez, a Miami Republican, wants to see Florida’s sales tax rate cut from 6% to 5.25%.

“By reducing unnecessary expenditures and cutting wasteful spending, we are ensuring that taxpayers see more of their dollars at work for them — and back in their pockets, too,” Perez said when the House budget was released.

He published the plan with a budget that is $4.4 billion lower than a budget released by the Florida Senate and $2.7 billion less than one proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Scott’s support for Perez’s tax proposal also shows he favors a different tactic than DeSantis in delivering savings to Floridians. DeSantis, the Republican who succeeded Scott as Governor, wants to cut property taxes in the state, and has sounded cool to sales tax cuts.

Senate President Ben Albritton, a Wauchula Republican, has said he will carefully deliberate on both approaches.

But Scott has picked sides, and said he likes the proposals coming out of the Florida House.

“I will always believe in Florida job creators and the Florida economy, but the cost of living has gotten really high over the past few years, our job growth rate has slowed down and our unemployment rate has ticked up,” Scott said.

“I think the Speaker’s focus on finding cost savings in the state budget combined with this tax cut would be great for our state’s economy.”

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A House bill that is rooted in the belief that aircraft in the skies over the state are seeding dangerous chemicals into the atmosphere is going to the floor of the chamber for full consideration.

The House Natural Resources & Disasters Subcommittee approved the “Weather Modification Activities” bill (HB 477). The measure, if approved by the full Legislature, “prohibits certain acts intended to affect temperature, weather, or intensity of sunlight within the atmosphere of this state.”

The proposed legislation stems at least in part from the chemtrails conspiracy theory. It’s a decades-old, debunked belief that contrails, the white lines of condensed water vapor that jets leave behind in the sky, are actually toxic chemicals that the government and other entities are using to do everything from altering the weather to sterilizing and mind-controlling the populace.

Rep. Kevin Steele, a Tallahassee Republican, sponsored the bill and told the subcommittee members he understands there is skepticism about the claims regarding chemtrails. The measure would ban such activity from taking place.

“It’s a fact that they can do this, whoever ‘they’ is, and they shouldn’t be allowed to do that in the state of Florida,” Steele said. “I started the process as a naysayer and … now I’m in the middle.”

Bradford Thomas, a recently retired Judge for the Florida First District Court of Appeals and former prosecutor, is far from being in the middle. He already testified before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Agriculture, Environment and General Government in March when that panel was considering a similar measure sponsored by Republican Sen. Ileana Garcia (SB 56) that calls for similar measures for aerial spraying activity.

Thomas ramped up his concerns before the House subcommittee. He reiterated that he has noticed what he calls chemtrails above the skies of Crescent Beach while strolling along the shore just south of St. Augustine. Thomas said the activity will harm Florida on a large scale.

“If this is not curtailed, this is going to destroy coastal tourism in the state of Florida,” Thomas said.

Other residents supporting the bill spoke before the subcommittee Tuesday and said they believed activity in the skies is being done to include “solar radiation modification,” “aluminum spraying in the atmosphere,” “marine cloud brightening” and “toxic polluting.”

Augustus Doricko, founder of Rainmaker, a cloud-seeding geoengineering startup company, testified before the subcommittee that there is indeed cloud seeding going on. But it’s already heavily regulated and the proposed measures before the Legislature isn’t really necessary.

Cloud seeding “can be used to mitigate the risk of wildfire,” Doricko said.

The measure still has another reading set before the House State Affairs Committee.

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