Connect with us

Business

Wall Street braces for Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline—it foresees 18% EU import duties and a 43% chance of a U.S. recession

Published

on



  • Analysts are closely watching April 2 for potential new U.S. tariff announcements, as President Trump has already imposed and threatened further tariffs on key trading partners, including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China. Market concerns about a possible recession are rising, with Deutsche Bank reporting a 43% average expectation of a downturn, while opinions within Trump’s cabinet remain divided on the economic impact of his trade policies.

A little over a week from now analysts have a date metaphorically circled in the calendar: April 2, the day further tariff pledges are expected to be confirmed, and potentially the moment when a universal tariff is announced.

Hikes have already been threatened, rescinded, and then ultimately placed on key trading partners like Canada and Mexico, with increases also placed on imports coming from China.

Since President Trump took office in late January, tariffs have also been placed on goods coming out of the EU, such as steel, with further policy expected to be announced.

Markets have been chided by Deutsche Bank before for failing to take the Oval Office at its word, but research out of the financial giant now shows that analysts are waking up to the threat.

In its March global markets survey—which spoke to 400 market makers across the world—Deutsche Bank found sentiment about the extremity of Trump’s tariff regime is moving towards the upper end.

For example, on a scale of zero to 10 (zero being no additional tariffs and 10 being an extreme regime) the December 2024 average was a five.

By March this had risen to approximately six, with the average dragged up by more analysts answering at the higher end of the scale.

The note penned by research strategist Jim Reid adds: “However, markets are expecting Europe to face a sustained U.S. tariff rate of 18% which feels higher than what is priced in.”

Having asked analysts for their sustained rate, not the peak at which tariffs are likely to start during negotiations, the majority of respondents (26%) said 10% to 15%. However a further 24% and 22% of correspondents chose 15% to 20% and 20% to 25% respectively.

It comes after Trump adopted a tougher stance on the EU when running for his second term. On the campaign trail the Republican politician said he would make no exceptions for one of America’s closest trading partners, saying: “I’ll tell you what, the European Union sounds so nice, so lovely, right? All the nice European little countries that get together.”

Per Reuters, he added: “They don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price.” 

This threat has been followed up since, with Trump telling his cabinet in February that while he “loves the countries of Europe,” the EU had been formed to “screw” the United States, saying: “That’s the purpose of it. And they’ve done a good job of it.”

As Reid points out, this higher-for-longer outlook amid tense geopolitics goes beyond the market’s current pricing strategy. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently pointed out, tariffs can do “good stuff” which is only modestly inflationary by “0.1% or 0.2%.”

However the man paid $39 million for his work in 2024 added that a universal 25% tariff on all imports would be, in his view, “quite recessionary and inflationary.”

Recession fears tip over 40%

Ahead of the election voters generally expected President Trumps’s policies to be better for the economy than former Vice President Kamala Harris’s.

However in the months since fears of recession have crept higher, with Reid reporting the average expectation for an American recession now sits at around 43%.

That being said, there was a great range in opinions on the matter. Of the 400 respondents, 20% placed the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months at between 20% to 30%.

Meanwhile 17% and 15% of respondents said the likelihood is between 30% to 40% and 40% to 50% respectively.

A further 23% of respondents put the likelihood at more than 60%, demonstrating the range of outcomes the market is currently bracing for.

Likewise the opinion even within Trump’s own cabinet appears divided.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, for example, told NBC earlier this month: “Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on recession. No chance.”

Meanwhile Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said a matter of days later “there are no guarantees” that America won’t have a recession.

Speaking to Fox Business, Bessent said: “I can’t guarantee anything… But what I can guarantee you is that there is no reason we need to have a recession.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

1 in 8 Americans take this medication linked to substantial increased risk of sudden cardiac death

Published

on

© 2025 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Trump says he’s ‘very angry’ with Putin, threatens oil penalties

Published

on

President Donald Trump said he’s “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir Putin and would consider “secondary tariffs” on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Ukraine can’t be reached, NBC News reported.

Trump said he was “very angry” about recent comments by Putin suggesting ways to install a new leadership in Ukraine and sideline President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, NBC reported, citing a phone interview with Trump on Sunday.

“I was pissed off about it. But if a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault, I’m going to put secondary sanctions on Russia,” Trump said. He told NBC he plans to speak to Putin this week. 

Putin has been testing Trump to see how far he can go in pressing Europe to ease sanctions on Russia. Trump portrayed his threat against Putin as a bargaining tool.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” he said.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all – on all oil, a 25 to 50-point tariff on all oil,” he said.

Read more: Putin Tests How Far Trump Will Go Against Europe on Sanctions

While Ukraine has said it would immediately observe a ceasefire, the Kremlin appeared to catch the White House off guard by declaring that its participation was dependent on removing sanctions on Russian Agricultural Bank, or RSHB, and other financial institutions involved in foreign trade in food and fertilizers.

After three days of negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, the US announced on Tuesday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to the Black Sea truce as the next stage in Trump’s efforts to end the war, following their acceptance of a 30-day halt to strikes on energy infrastructure.

Trump on Monday appeared to invent a new economic statecraft tactic by threatening what he dubbed “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy oil from Venezuela to choke off its oil trade with other nations. 

The threat, confirmed in an executive order by Trump, said countries could face 25% tariffs on trade with the US if they purchase oil and gas from Venezuela, which is already under heavy US sanctions. The move was meant to pressure Venezuela for the “tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals” that Trump said Venezuela has sent to the US.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Trump’s promised ‘Liberation Day’ of tariffs is coming. Here’s what it could mean for you

Published

on



 President Donald Trump says Wednesday will be “Liberation Day” — a moment when he plans to roll out a set of tariffs that he promises will free the United States from foreign goods.

The details of Trump’s next round of import taxes are still sketchy. Most economic analyses say average U.S. families would have to absorb the cost of his tariffs in the form of higher prices and lower incomes. But an undeterred Trump is inviting CEOs to the White House to say they are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new projects to avoid the import taxes.

It is also possible that the tariffs are short-lived if Trump feels he can cut a deal after imposing them.

“I’m certainly open to it, if we can do something,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll get something for it.”

At stake are family budgets, America’s prominence as the world’s leading financial power and the structure of the global economy.

Here’s what you should know about the impending trade penalties:

What exactly does Trump plan to do?

He wants to announce import taxes, including “reciprocal” tariffs that would match the rates charged by other countries and account for other subsidies. Trump has talked about taxing the European Union, South Korea, Brazil and India, among other countries.

As he announced 25% auto tariffs last week, he alleged that America has been ripped off because it imports more goods than it exports.

“This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs, taking our wealth, taking a lot of things that they’ve been taking over the years. They’ve taken so much out of our country, friend and foe. And, frankly, friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe.”

In an interview Saturday with NBC News, Trump said it did not bother him if tariffs caused vehicle prices to rise because autos with more U.S. content could possibly be more competitively priced.

“I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars,” Trump said. “I couldn’t care less because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they’re going to buy American cars.”

Trump has also suggested that he will be flexible with his tariffs, saying he will treat other nations better than they treated the United States. But he still has plenty of other taxes coming on imports.

The Republican president plans to tax imported pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber. He has put forth a 25% tariff on any country that imports oil from Venezuela, even though the United States also does so. Imports from China are being charged an additional 20% tax because of its role in fentanyl production. Trump has imposed separate tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico for the stated reason of stopping drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Trump also expanded his 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% on all imports.

Some aides suggest the tariffs are tools for negotiation on trade and border security; others say the revenues will help reduce the federal budget deficit. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says they will force other nations to show Trump “respect.”

What could tariffs do to the US economy?

Nothing good, according to most economists. They say the tariffs would get passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices for autos, groceries, housing and other goods. Corporate profits could be lower and growth more sluggish. Trump maintains that more companies would open factories to avoid the taxes, though that process could take three years or more.

Economist Art Laffer estimates the tariffs on autos, if fully implemented, could increase per vehicle costs by $4,711, though he said he views Trump as a smart and savvy negotiator. The investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates the economy will grow this quarter at an annual rate of just 0.6%, down from a rate of 2.4% at the end of last year.

Mayor Andrew Ginther of Columbus, Ohio, said on Friday that tariffs could increase the median cost of a home by $21,000, making affordability more of an obstacle because building materials would cost more.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that tariffs would be a one-time price adjustment, rather than the start of an inflationary spiral. But Bessent’s conclusion rests on tariffs being brief or contained, rather than leading other countries to retaliate with their own tariffs or seeping into other sectors of the economy.

“There is a chance tariffs on goods begin to filter through to the pricing of services,” said Samuel Rines, a strategist at WisdomTree. “Auto parts get move expensive, then auto repair gets more expensive, then auto insurance feels the pressure. While goods are the focus, tariffs could have a longer-term effect on inflation.”

How are other nations thinking about the new tariffs?

Most foreign leaders see the tariffs as destructive for the global economy, even if they are prepared to impose their own countermeasures.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Trump’s tariff threats had ended the partnership between his country and the United States, even as the president on Friday talked about his phone call with Carney in relatively positive terms. Canada already has announced retaliatory tariffs.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the tariffs were “not coherent” and would mean “breaking value chains, creating inflation in the short term and destroying jobs. It’s not good for the American economy, nor for the European, Canadian or Mexican economies.” Yet Macron said his nation would defend itself with the goal of dismantling the tariffs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has avoided the tit-for-tat responses on tariffs, but she sees it as critical to defend jobs in her country.

The Chinese government said Trump’s tariffs would harm the global trading system and would not fix the economic challenges identified by Trump.

“There are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and no country’s development and prosperity are achieved through imposing tariffs,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said.

How did Trump land on it being called ‘Liberation Day’?

Based off Trump’s public statements, April 2 is at least the third “liberation day” that he has identified.

At a rally last year in Nevada, he said the day of the presidential election, Nov. 5, would be “Liberation Day in America.” He later gave his inauguration the same label, declaring in his address: “For American citizens, Jan. 20, 2025, is Liberation Day.”

His repeated designation of the term is a sign of just how much importance Trump places on tariffs, an obsession of his since the 1980s. Dozens of other countries recognize their own form of liberation days to recognize events such as overcoming Nazi Germany or the end of a previous political regime deemed oppressive.

Trump sees his tariffs as providing national redemption, but the slumping consumer confidence and stock market indicate that much of the public believes the U.S. economy will pay the price for his ambitions.

“I don’t see anything positive about Liberation Day,” said Phillip Braun, a finance professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. “It’s going to hurt the U.S. economy. Other countries are going to retaliate.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.