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Tesla has $1.4 billion that seems to have gone astray, potentially raising questions about the company’s controls

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  • Elon Musk’s vision to usher in a utopia powered by Tesla robotaxis and the company’s humanoid robot, Optimus, will likely take significant cash. Tesla spent $6.3 billion in capex during the second half of last year, but the gross value of the company’s relevant assets only increased by $4.9 billion. Those numbers should tally for domestic companies without any major asset sales or impairments, but other factors could be at play for Tesla. 

Tesla is making big bets on AI, but investors might have a reason to question where the money is going. If left unexplained, a $1.4 billion discrepancy between the firm’s capital expenditures and the valuation of the assets that cash was spent on, first reported by the Financial Times, could spark concerns about internal controls at Elon Musk’s electric vehicle giant.

Several accounting experts, however, say there are plausible justifications for the variance that might not show up on Tesla’s financial statements. You would expect the relevant numbers to add up for a domestic company with no big asset sales or impairments, said Tim Morrison, an accounting professor at Notre Dame and former audit partner at Ernst & Young. Tesla, of course, sells cars around the world and has factories on three continents. PwC has audited Tesla’s financial statements since 2005.

“If they had the numbers incorrect, then that would be a red flag related to controls,” said Morrison, who worked primarily with multinational manufacturing companies and led internal inspections to assess audit quality at EY.

This isn’t the first time Tesla’s accounting practices have been questioned, noted Garrett Nelson, a vice president and senior equity analyst at CFRA Research.

“We’ll have to see whether PwC or the company provide clarification,” he wrote in an email to Fortune.

Tesla and the Big Four firm did not respond to a request from Fortune for comment.

Tesla shares have lost roughly half their value since their post-election high near the $490 mark in December. The company has shed nearly $750 billion in market cap amid plummeting sales and fears Musk’s work with President Donald Trump’s White House is damaging the brand and distracting him from his role as CEO of Tesla.

The stock rallied Friday, though, after Musk held an emergency all-hands meeting with employees. Bullish investors believe Tesla will be much more than an EV and battery storage company, citing Musk’s vision of using AI to usher in a utopia powered by Tesla robotaxis and the company’s humanoid robot, Optimus.  

Executing that plan will presumably require significant investment. On the company’s latest earnings call in January, CFO Vaibhav Taneja said Tesla’s $11.3 billion in annual capex—up $2.4 billion from 2023—should remain flat this year. The company’s cumulative AI-related spend, he noted, had just surpassed the $5 billion mark.

“Capex efficiency is something we are extremely focused on,” Taneja said. “While we have invested in AI-related initiatives, we have done so in a very targeted manner to utilize the spend to get immediate benefits.”

Accounting for a $1.4 billion mystery

That spending shows up on the annual statement of cash flows as purchases of property, plant, and equipment, or PP&E. In the second half of last year, that amount grew by $6.3 billion, the same value for capex that Tesla reported in its slide deck for investors.

But the gross value of the company’s PP&E, or its worth before accounting for depreciation, only increased $4.9 billion in that span. Again, for a domestic company, you would expect those numbers to tally.

There’s no evidence any PP&E was sold, Morrison confirmed, and the company did not recognize any impairments to its “long-lived assets,” which Tesla expects to use for more than one year.

Foreign currency changes, however, can throw everything off. If the euro weakens relative to the dollar like it did during the period in question, Morrison explained, assets at the company’s facilities in Germany are marked down.

“You’re not going to see [it] anywhere else on the financial statements,” he said.

While the Financial Times said foreign exchange appeared “unlikely to explain the gap,” citing that four-fifths of Tesla’s long-lived assets are in the U.S., Morrison said it could still explain a significant chunk.

“Foreign currency can do lots of weird things,” he said, “and it’s really hard to fully track that.”

Finally, he also noted Tesla could have gotten rid of assets that had reached the end of their useful lives, in which case it would make sense if they are no longer on the books.

“If the fully depreciated asset is disposed of, the asset’s value and accumulated depreciation will be written off from the balance sheet,” according to an explanation from the Corporate Finance Institute.

In short, it may not be time for investors to sound an alarm about Tesla’s capex just yet. As the Financial Times noted, it may seem odd Tesla felt the need to raise $3.9 billion in new debt last year, given the company is sitting on a $36.5 billion cash pile and doesn’t pay a dividend. Still, that sort of behavior may be reasonable for a company banking on future growth, Morrison said.

Despite the stock’s recent decline, Tesla shares still trade at roughly 90 times the company’s projected earnings for the next 12 months, according to S&P Cap IQ estimates. To put it mildly, bulls better believe Musk’s investments will pay off in a big way.   

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The housing market now has more ‘downside risks’: layoffs from DOGE and the trade war

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  • Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok said layoffs from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and Trump’s trade war could pose a threat to housing, which had a decent month of sales in an otherwise frozen market. A higher unemployment rate would only make matters worse.

It was a week of back-to-back housing data that revealed some positive and some negative manifestations in the market. But there is an unanticipated development to watch out for: the Department of Government Efficiency run by the richest man in the world, Elon Musk.

“Downside risks to the housing market are layoffs because of DOGE and any potential layoffs because of trade war uncertainty,” Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok told Fortune in a statement, referring to the administration’s back-and-forth tariffs. “If the unemployment rate starts to go up it would be a downside risk to housing.”

There are mass layoffs occurring in the federal government—part of Musk’s and his non-cabinet level body’s cost-cutting. A person is less likely to consider buying a home if they’ve just lost their job. 

Until now, that had not necessarily been an issue in the post-pandemic housing world. Instead, home sales are depressed because people can’t afford to buy after prices skyrocketed during the pandemic and mortgage rates followed; others aren’t selling either because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate. So if sales, mostly existing home sales, are already at recessionary levels and unemployment goes up, it would not be good.

DOGE and the White House press office did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Layoffs would come just as there are some signals home sales could be taking a turn for the better. The data released throughout the week showed solid job and wage growth is boosting demand for housing, according to Slok. But the positive home sales numbers might not be so positive when you consider the big picture, other economists told Fortune

In February, sales of newly constructed homes rose 1.8% from a month earlier and 5.1% from a year earlier, per government data released Tuesday. Pending home sales rose 2% in February compared to a month ago but fell 3.6% compared to a year ago, per data released Thursday. 

That “suggests improved home buying activity” after January’s weak numbers, Wells Fargo Senior Economist Charles Dougherty said. “Zooming out, however, the message is that adverse affordability conditions continue to weigh significantly on the housing sector.”

Dougherty explained that the month-over-month pending home sales bounce is encouraging because it means they aren’t in free fall. But they’re still lethargic and near record lows. When it comes to new home sales, they continue to outdo existing sales because homebuilders can offer what sellers can’t: incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns. But new home sales have basically been flat over the past several months, Dougherty mentioned. 

Existing home sales data came out last week and showed sales rose 4.2% in February from January but slipped 1.2% from a year ago.

Selma Hepp, chief economist for Cotality, formerly CoreLogic, echoed Dougherty, saying that activity is low compared to historical trends, despite the slight uptick. 

Meanwhile, high home prices and mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and limit a housing market recovery, Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American Financial, said. Home prices rose 4.1% in January, per the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, which was reported Tuesday. This is in line with the recent trend of slower appreciation but an increase nonetheless.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate came in at 6.65% for Freddie Mac’s weekly reading Thursday, a two-basis-point drop. That is an improvement, but mortgage rates are nowhere near their pandemic rock bottom of sub-3% that people became accustomed to. The high home price, high mortgage combination has eroded affordability and that can’t be reversed because of some favorable data.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The Trump tariff ‘chain reaction’: America’s car and auto insurance payments could soar by $24 billion

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Even if you’re not in the market for a new car, U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto imports could make owning one more expensive.

The new taxes, which are set to begin April 3 and expand in the following weeks, are estimated to raise the average cost of a car imported from another country by thousands of dollars. But repairs for vehicles that currently use foreign-made parts are also expected to get pricier — and, as a result, hike insurance costs farther down the road.

While the White House says these tariffs will foster domestic manufacturing and raise $100 billion in revenue annually, economists stress that straining the auto industry’s global supply chain brings significant disruptions. Dealerships and car repair shops will likely have little choice but to raise prices — leading drivers across the country to pay more for everyday maintenance.

Here’s what you need to know.

How will tariffs affect my next car repair?

It depends on what you need fixed and where you go in to get your car serviced. But some industry analysts warn that drivers could see costs jump in as early as the coming weeks or months.

“If you are bringing your car to get repaired, chances are, it’s going to have a part that comes from another country,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at auto-buying resource Edmunds. “That price that you pay is likely going to be directly affected by the increase (from these tariffs).”

Trump’s Wednesday proclamation on auto tariffs points specifically to engines, transmissions, powertrain parts and electrical components. That covers a lot of repairs as is, Caldwell notes, and the administration has also signaled the possibility of future expansion.

And while automakers may develop new pricing strategies for new vehicles impacted by tariffs, Caldwell expects they will to be less likely to absorb the costs of individual parts — leaving consumers with the bill perhaps more imminently.

Much of the car repair market has heavily relied on imports, particularly from America’s biggest trading partners. According to February numbers from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade group that represents home, auto and business insurers, about 6 in every 10 auto replacements parts used in U.S. auto shop repairs are imported from Mexico, Canada and China.

“You can’t walk into a dealership today and not see a United Nations of parts,” said Skyler Chadwick, director of Product Consulting at Cox Automotive. But sourcing and supply varies between each servicer, he adds, making it all the more complex to nail down when exactly prices will rise after these tariffs take effect.

Desiree Hill, owner of Crown’s Corner, an auto repair and mechanics shop in Conyers, Georgia, says the auto tariffs were already hurting her business. She was working on repairing a vintage 1960 Opel Rekord car and ordered a part from Germany, but the manufacturer canceled the order due to the tariffs.

“I can’t get (the part) anywhere in our country. Period. So that that was very disappointing,” she said.

About half of the cars she works on are foreign-made, so the tariffs will make repairing those cars more difficult.

“Unfortunately we don’t have a choice but to raise prices if they are raised on us,” she said. “We can’t take that kind of loss.”

Car repair prices have already been on the rise for years, with analysts pointing both to growing labor costs and more expensive components needed for vehicles with advanced technology.

Edward Salamy, executive director of the Automotive Body Parts Association, also says car companies have been trying to “gain a monopoly” to limit remedies to their own parts or processes, reducing options for consumers.

Tariffs, he said, will just exacerbate the issue: “Many of these distributors will have no choice but to raise their list price.”

How are car dealerships managing?

Joshua Allrich, who operates a family-owned used car dealership called Allrich Auto in Atlanta, is among those concerned about facing higher costs while also trying to save his customers money.

“It’s going to make things a lot more expensive,” Allirch said, adding that, while he’s looking forward to the possibility of people rushing to buy cars before the tariffs take effect, his business will soon have to adjust. “My wheelhouse is economy cars, affordable cars. And now, this tariff is going to directly hit us because it’s gonna just make things go up.”

Chadwick says that dealers and other servicers will need to be as transparent as possible as these tariffs take effect while also preparing to have difficult conversations about rising prices with customers.

He adds that tariffs are also going to put pressures on the reselling market. Used cars often have to be serviced before dealerships can sell them back to customers — again opening the door for higher repair costs due to tariffs. And “all that cost goes right back into the consumer” through what they end up having to pay for the vehicle, he explains.

In efforts to delay impacts, some dealers and repair shops might turn to stocking up on inventory before tariffs hit, particularly for parts that get requested the most. Analysts say many have long-anticipated the threat of auto tariffs, and are already grappling with the impact of Trump’s new steel and aluminum levies that took effect earlier this month.

But stockpiling can only go so far. And for small business owners, spending money for a lot of inventory at once can be risky, especially when Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats raise questions about how long they will last.

If they end up being short-lived, Caldwell said, “Do you really want to buy a bunch of inventory that you’re going to have to sit and hold on (to) for quite some time?”

What will happen to my insurance premiums?

Because accidents involving new parts will see increased costs for repairs, insurance premiums will also likely rise due to tariffs.

But that may be farther into the future. Bob Passmore, department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, expects consumers to see an impact on their insurance bill in 12 to 18 months at a minimum. That’s because increased prices have to hit claims costs, then be implemented after new rates are filed and approved.

Still, the trade association has estimated that personal auto insurance claims costs alone could rise a total of between $7 billion and $24 billion annually.

It wasn’t immediately clear how large providers of auto insurance were preparing for the impacts of these tariffs. Allstate, State Farm, Geico and Progressive did not immediately respond to The Associated Press’ requests for comment on Friday.

But even if it takes long to trickle down, these tariff-related hikes would again arrive as consumers have already faced rising insurance costs. The Insurance Information Institute estimated that average U.S. auto premiums increased 14% in 2023 and 12% in 2024.

Mark Friedlander, the institute’s senior director of media relations, said via email that the research trade nonprofit projected a 7% average premium increase for auto insurance across in 2025 at the start of the year — but that didn’t account for potential tariff impacts, which will drive them even higher.

Increased costs spanning from tariffs cause a “chain reaction for insurance,” Caldwell adds. “This is a total ownership cost increase, rather than just a purchase increase.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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‘We’re just hanging on for dear life’: How CEOs are navigating increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

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