• The Trump administration believes auto execs could be tempted to use the tariffs as cover to push through their own hefty price hikes without risking the competitiveness of their U.S. built vehicles. This would be an effective means of balancing out the loss of sales from tariffs placed on their foreign imports. “The math would tell you that’s going to cost us multibillions of dollars,” one executive told the Wall Street Journal. “So who pays for that?”

The White House is afraid automakers could take advantage of next month’s tariffs to arrange an across-the-board price hike on Americans looking to buy a new car.

Come April 3, all new vehicles built abroad will be slapped with a 25% import duty, a cost that will likely be passed on to U.S. consumers. Since this affects roughly half the cars sold in the country, companies like General Motors could use the tariff increase as cover to increase their prices on domestically-built vehicles as well.

To mitigate the threat of an across-the-board increase in car prices, President Donald Trump held a phone call with management from the top automakers in the country, warning them not to use the tariffs as an excuse to raise prices on domestic cars.

In it, Trump told the executives that the White House would look unfavorably on such a move, leaving some of them rattled and worried they would face punishment if they increased sticker prices, according to the Wall Street Journal report citing people with knowledge of the call. 

“The math would tell you that’s going to cost us multibillions of dollars,” one executive told the paper. “So who pays for that?”

The Trump administration did not reply by press time to a request from Fortune for comment. 

Rising car prices a major factor behind pandemic inflation

In the aftermath of the COVID-era semiconductor crunch that began in early 2021, the lack of supply of new cars sent prices soaring by roughly 20%, and even more for used cars, and to this day they remain elevated over their long term average. 

Together they were a major driver behind the post-pandemic bout of inflation that scarred Americans, helping return Trump return to the Oval Office. A key promise of the Trump campaign was a pledge to lower the cost of living for everyday Americans. 

The White House has squared the circle by claiming tariffs are a tax on foreign countries, a kind of IRS only in this case the rest of the world pays.

Much of the economics profession has repudiated this claim, however, and American consumers will soon find out if they are correct. 

Once the industry’s stockpile of imported cars and parts is depleted, the Trump tariffs could add $4,711 to the cost of a vehicle under the new rules, according to an estimate from celebrated supply-side economist Arthur Laffer, a favorite among pro-business Republicans.

Using that math, carmakers would be in a position to increase the price of a U.S.-built vehicle by $4,000 and still remain below the direct competition. The added profit could help offset the potential loss of sales for Mexican-built cars for companies like General Motors and Stellantis 

Trump: stagnant U.S. car production poses a threat to security

How did Trump manage to impose such steep tariffs unilaterally? The administration availed itself of a legal loophole. 

“Automobiles and certain automobile parts are being imported into the United States in such quantities and under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security of the United States,” the White House said, adding that the U.S. share of global auto production has stagnated over the past six years.

Arguing foreign cars that cross the border somehow pose a danger to the world’s richest and most powerful country is not an obvious argument for many. Without it, however, Trump would need Congress to implement the tariffs, since the Constitution places responsibility for tariffs and trade under the purview of the legislative branch of government. 

The only exception to the rule is Section 232, which allows the executive to restrict imports strictly when there is a national security theat.

Trump’s solution is to argue that countries like Australia, which imports all of its motor vehicles after the last domestic production site closed in late 2017, are strategically vulnerable due to the loss of a portion of its heavy industry.

“Only about half of the vehicles sold in the United States are manufactured domestically, a decline that jeopardizes our domestic industrial base and national security,” the White House said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

• Investors have been forced to reckon with the apparent fact Trump is serious about implementing substantial tariffs on several, if not all, U.S. trading partners. While there’s plenty of turmoil to come, Morgan Stanley Investment Management executive Jim Caron said traders are well-equipped to map out how different scenarios could impact the global economy and corporate earnings. 

President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles and car parts pushed auto stocks down Thursday, but the S&P 500 and other major indexes held relatively steady. It could be another sign investors are increasingly confident markets have made it past “peak tariff uncertainty,” as Jim Caron, an executive at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, put it, even if there’s likely plenty of turmoil around U.S. trade policy to come.

Stocks rose to start the week after reports from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg said the administration was considering narrowing the scope of the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” being unveiled Apr. 2, which the president has referred to as “Liberation Day.” Regardless of what’s unveiled, Caron told Fortune earlier this week, investors are better primed to react to these developments than when stocks plunged earlier this month.  

“There’s a difference between uncertainty and volatility,” said Caron, the chief investment officer of the firm’s portfolio solutions group.   

Markets famously despise the former, he said, because it’s impossible to quantify, for example, whether the president is just talking tough on taxing imports as a negotiating tactic. Now, investors have been forced to reckon with the apparent fact Trump is serious about implementing substantial tariffs on several, if not all, U.S. trading partners.

Of course, it’s impossible to determine the extent of these tariffs in advance, never mind what sectors will be hit hardest or whether retaliation from other countries will result in a global trade war. But traders can map out how different scenarios impact the global economy and corporate earnings, Caron said, which he called “managing volatility.”

“That, in the financial markets,” he said, “we’re really equipped to handle and understand.”

Investors have already moderated expectations for the economy this year. Goldman Sachs recently lowered its projection for U.S. GDP growth from 2.4% to 1.7%, a number Caron said is becoming Wall Street’s consensus.

When it comes to the impact of tariffs on inflation, Caron cited Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s press conference last week. The head of America’s central bank said a one-time shock to prices would result in “transitory,” or temporary, inflation, while indicating a chain reaction of escalating price hikes remains a threat.  

The on-again, off-again nature of Trump’s tariff threats drove the S&P 500 into correction territory by Mar. 13 as the index dropped 10% from its all-time high in mid-February. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 14% in that span, but both indexes have rallied more than 3% since.

Will the “American exceptionalism” trade last?

Caron said his team treated the dip as a buying opportunity in both America and Europe. In recent years, investors have been much better off parking their money in U.S. stocks than anywhere else. A chaotic barrage of policy announcements from the Trump administration, however, has markets souring on the “American exceptionalism” trade.

While the S&P 500 is down nearly 3% in 2025, stocks across the pond have surged as the continent prepares to dramatically up spending on defense and infrastructure amid fears of U.S. abandonment. The pan-European STOXX 600 is up 7% year-to-date, while in Germany, where the government has reached an agreement to potentially unlock $1 trillion in new outlays, the country’s DAX Index has jumped over 12% in that span.

Meanwhile, the S&P China 50 Index is up over 16%, despite Trump raising tariffs on China by 20% since the start of his term, inflaming growing tensions between the world’s superpowers. Optimism about China’s tech sector and AI capabilities has significantly increased since the surprise success of DeepSeek’s R1 model. Joe Quinlan, who oversees market strategy for the wealth management divisions of Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, said Wall Street is optimistic about the government’s efforts to boost flagging consumer demand.

“China really got out the fiscal bazooka,” he said. “They really got aggressive with monetary policy.”

Bank of America’s monthly fund manager survey found 69% of respondents said “American exceptionalism” had peaked, reporting the biggest drop in U.S. equity allocation since BofA began conducting the survey in 1994.

Investors are being cautious when looking abroad, though. Stephanie Link, who manages a $6 billion portfolio as chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, told Fortune earlier this month she’s wary of chasing gains in Europe, where she said more stringent regulation weighs on profit margins.

She feels even less comfortable about China and its authoritarian regime, noting the mysterious disappearance of Alibaba founder Jack Ma. Before shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at an event last month, Ma had been seen only sparingly in public after criticizing Chinese finance regulators in 2020.

Link is more bullish on India, where she noted companies like Apple are moving their supply chains to reduce exposure to China—and a growing middle class, she said, will support growth.

It makes sense for investors to look for some diversification, she said, with the S&P 500 trading at roughly 22 times forward earnings. The 20-year average for the index has been about 16, according to FactSet.

“I do think we have American exceptionalism,” Link said earlier this month, “but I think it’s coming at a very high price.”

At least some investors feel the tariff picture is clearing ever so slightly.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Good morning!

American employees are not feeling great about the future. In fact, their optimism is at an even lower point than it was during the height of the pandemic. 

The U.S. worker confidence score for February of this year reached a record low of +24, according to new research from LinkedIn. That’s even worse than how workers were feeling in April 2020, and a sharp 9 point drop from confidence levels in January. 

The culprit for all the anxiety is a slowing jobs market, potentially destructive new economic policies, and fears about how AI will impact human professionals, according to the report. “This is indicative of workers feeling like they don’t have the power to actually change their financial situation. When you feel like you don’t have the power, your confidence in your own stability wanes,” Drew McCaskill, a career expert at LinkedIn,” tells Fortune. 

While the job market was controlled by job seekers just a few years ago, who made major wage gains by switching roles, that opportunity for workers has all but ground to a halt. The number of applicants per open job on LinkedIn has jumped nearly 70% since 2022, while hiring has slowed 3.4% from February 2024 to February 2025. McCaskill also notes that the influx of fired federal workers searching for new roles may also be a source of strain because “none of us know whether the private sector is going to be able to absorb all those jobs.” 

“It is essentially an employer’s marketplace right now,” he says. 

It’s no surprise, then, that money is causing the most anxiety for workers. Employee confidence in their ability to better their financial situation over the next six months dropped to +15, even lower than April 2020’s score of +16, and a record low for that metric in particular. 

While the current hiring environment is certainly challenging for job seekers, McCaskill says it also puts pressure on hiring managers, and HR leaders. On one hand, this group potentially has their pick of candidates when it comes to filling a role. But this “overwhelmed, overworked” cohort is also wading through more applications and struggling to meet higher demands from bosses who think they should be hiring the best of the best. That’s leading to some inevitable broken links in the job hiring chain. 

“Recruiters are now inundated,” he says. “People who are looking for jobs there aren’t getting responses back.”

Sara Braun
sara.braun@fortune.com

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Source link