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Picking your NCAA men’s bracket? We’ve got tips

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Before we begin, a disclaimer: Your bracket will probably be a mess by Saturday.

Or by Friday. And let’s be honest, some of us will out of the running by Thursday night.

Welcome back to the world’s largest lottery, the NCAA Tournament and all of its various bracket pools that millions of people will be joining over the next few days. Some will play for fun, some for money. No matter the stakes, we encourage you to remember that you are not an expert — and even the experts didn’t know much this season.

Florida started the year ranked No. 21; the Gators are a No. 1 seed for the tournament. St. John’s was unranked; Rick Pitino’s club is a No. 2 seed. North Carolina was No. 9 in the AP preseason poll; the Tar Heels barely got into the field and left a bunch of analysts angry about it happening.

Before we begin trying to figure out who’ll win this thing, a few policies:

Avoid the No. 5 seeds

Sorry, Oregon, Michigan, Clemson and Memphis. Going back to 1979, when the full field for the NCAA men’s tournament was seeded for the first time. there has never been a No. 5 seed that has won the national championship.

Weirdly, this rule also holds true in the NBA — all the No. 5 seeds there over the years have all fallen short of the title as well.

No double-digit loss teams

Only three teams in tournament history — N.C. State in 1983, Villanova in 1985 and Kansas in 1988 — entered the NCAAs with at least 10 losses and went on to win the title.

So, again, our apologies to Creighton, Texas A&M, St. Francis, Alabama State, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Marquette, Bryant, American, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi State, Baylor, Arizona, Vanderbilt, SIU Edwardsville, Georgia, Purdue, Illinois, Kentucky, Troy, UCLA, Wofford, Norfolk State, UConn, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas and Omaha. History that says you won’t win it all.

A surprise team will make the Final Four

Upsets are going to happen. Hence, the Madness part of March.

If recent form holds, there’s going to be a surprise team — or two, or three even — in the Final Four. There was a No. 11 seed there last year. There were two 5 seeds and a 9 seed there in 2023. An 8 seed the year before that. An 11 seed the year before that.

And it’s not just a recent phenomenon, either. From 2011 through 2018, there were nine instances of teams being a 7 seed or higher making the Final Four — three No. 7 seeds, two No. 11 seeds, two No. 8 seeds, a No. 9 and a No. 10 all headed to the national semifinals in that span.

Thursday and Friday might be bonkers

Everyone knows the 5 vs. 12 games lead to upsets. But those aren’t the only ones.

There were 11 wins by teams seeded No. 9 through No. 12 last year in the round of 64 — with two No. 12s, a No. 13 and a No. 14 among them in 2024.

Remember, there have been nine instances of a No. 15 or a No. 16 seed getting to Round 2 since 2012. It’s not impossible anymore.

But in the end …

Don’t overthink this. The really good teams are really good for a reason. In the last 45 years, 41 eventual champions have been seeded No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3. Will they all get to San Antonio? Probably not. But one or two, at minimum, probably will get there.

To win your pool, you’ve got to hit the upsets. Pool winners are made there. But if you get to the Final Four on your sheet of paper (or more likely, your screen) and see a 9 seed, two 11 seeds and a 14 seed as the last ones standing, perhaps start over.

Round of 64 picks

South: Auburn, Louisville, Michigan, Yale, Ole Miss, Iowa State, New Mexico, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Mississippi State, Liberty, Akron, BYU, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Alabama.

Midwest: Houston, Gonzaga, McNeese, High Point, Illinois, Kentucky, UCLA, Tennessee.

West: Florida, UConn, Memphis, Maryland, Drake, UNC Wilmington, Arkansas, St. John’s.

Round of 32 picks

South: Auburn, Michigan, Iowa State, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Akron, BYU, Alabama.

Midwest: Gonzaga, McNeese, Kentucky, Tennessee.

West: Florida, Maryland, Drake, St. John’s.

Regional semifinal picks

South: Michigan, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Alabama.

Midwest: Gonzaga, Tennessee.

West: Florida, St. John’s.

Regional final picks

South: Dusty May going back to the Final Four in Year 1 at Michigan would be an incredible story, but Michigan State — Tom Izzo in March gets a slight nod.

East: If Cooper Flagg is healthy, Duke should be fine.

Midwest: Mark Few is an absolute legend. Never sleep on the Zags … Gonzaga in an upset.

West: Florida has been as good as anyone all season long. But Rick Pitino, it just feels like his year … St. John’s.

The Final Four

This leaves us with Michigan State vs. St. John’s, Duke vs. Gonzaga.

Michigan State vs. Duke in the final.

We’re all-in on Cooper Flagg being healthy here … Duke wins it all.

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AP March Madness: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness





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Let’em Run recap: Red Hot at Gulfstream Park

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Let’em Run Review of 3/15/25 and Preview of 3/22/25

By Fred York and Sean Miller

Over the weekend, Let’em Run delivered an impressive string of winners, headlined by our inaugural week of “One Horse Wonders.” In Race 8 at Gulfstream Park, we highlighted an 8-1 morning line long shot that surged to victory, ultimately going off at 9-5 and paying $5.80 to win. Our “Look Out” bet in Race 11 also came through, paying $3.40 to win after being bet down from 3-1 to 9-5. We added two more winners from our second choices in Races 10 and 12, along with three third-place finishes from our 13 total picks. A solid weekend for those who followed along.

The Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs was another highlight, with American Promise, trained by D. Wayne Lucas, the “Godfather” of trainers, stealing the show. As the favorites faltered, American Promise stormed to victory in the one-turn, 1 1/8 mile affair, securing a spot in the Kentucky Derby. The win demonstrated the brilliance and strategy of Lucas, who once again showed he can outmaneuver the younger generation of trainers when it matters most.

Key Takeaways from 3/15/25

  • Race 8 at Gulfstream Park: Our 8-1 M/L pick won and paid $5.80.
  • Race 11 at Gulfstream Park: The “Look Out” bet cashed at $3.40.
  • Race 10 and Race 12: Both second choices came through with wins.
  • Virginia Derby: American Promise punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.

Looking ahead, the Derby Prep trail intensifies as we enter the stretch run. From this point forward, all prep races award 100 points to the winner and 50 points to the runner-up, virtually guaranteeing a spot in the Derby field. The stakes are higher than ever, and the competition will only get fiercer.


Upcoming Races on 3/22/25

  • The Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park: A 1 1/16 mile race on Tapeta, adding a unique twist to the prep trail. With a field of 12 horses and 1 AE, this race promises fireworks. Poster, winner of the Remsen Stakes, is among the top contenders. Post time: 6:25 EST.
  • The Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds in New Orleans: Another 1 1/16 mile race, but this one on dirt. John Hancock, who drew post 1, will be looking to bounce back after being scratched from the Virginia Derby. Post time: 6:42 EST.

Both races offer intriguing betting opportunities and critical points for Derby qualification. The Tapeta surface at Turfway adds complexity, while the dirt showdown at Fairgrounds will be a true test of stamina and speed.


What’s Next for Let’em Run

Sean “The Genius” Miller and I will break down our “One Horse Wonder” picks on Thursday, 3/20/25, at 8 PM. We’ll provide deep analysis and insights to help you make the most informed wagers. Additionally, we’ll be guests on the popular Nerdthusiast podcast on Tuesday at 7:30 PM, available on YouTube. Don’t miss it!

For more expert analysis and picks, visit SportsTalkNYFan.com and SportsTalkFlorida.com. We’re heating up, and the Derby trail is just getting started!





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Andrei Vasilevskiy stops 21 shots in Lightning’s 2-0 win over Flyers

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Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy spray water on on his face during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Florida Panthers Monday, March 3, 2025, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — Andrei Vasilevskiy recorded his sixth shutout of the season after stopping 21 shots as the Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 2-0 on Monday night.

Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel scored for Tampa Bay, which has won eight of the past nine games at home. Vasilevskiy recorded his 39th career shutout to tie Jocelyn Thibault for 49th on the all-time list.

Ivan Fedotov finished with 21 saves for the Flyers, who have been shutout in back-to-back games. Philadelphia has lost seven of the past eight games.

Kucherov scored his 29th of the season, converting on a breakaway with 1:29 left in the first period. Guentzel scored his 15th power-play goal of the season, tying Leon Draisaitl for the league lead, with an empty-net goal with 1:30 left in the third.

Takeaways

Flyers: Fedotov, who picked up his first career victory in November at Amalie Arena, has allowed just two goals in two games against the Lightning. … The Flyers were shutout for the seventh time this season.

Lightning: Kucherov has points in 10 consecutive games on home ice against the Flyers. … Monday was the lone home game for Tampa Bay in the middle of a seven game stretch.

Key moment

The Flyers had a four-minute power play chance at 11:38 of the second period trailing by a goal when Emil Lilleberg was called for a double minor for high sticking. Not only did the Lightning hold Philadelphia off the scoreboard during the power play, Tampa Bay outshot the Flyers 2-0.

Key stat

Philadelphia went 0 for 5 on the power play on the night to extend their drought to 0 for 23 with the man advantage, dating back to Feb. 25.

Up Next

On Thursday, the Flyers are at Washington and the Lightning are at Dallas.

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AP NHL: https://www.apnews.com/hub/NHL





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Overall No. 1 UCLA joined by South Carolina, USC, Texas as women’s top seeds. Everyone wants to be in Tampa for the finals.

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UCLA is the top overall seed in the women’s NCAA Tournament. The Bruins were joined by South Carolina, Southern California and Texas as the No. 1 seeds that the NCAA revealed Sunday night.

It’s the first time in school history that the Bruins are the top team in the tournament. They had two losses on the season, both of which came to the Trojans.

Dawn Staley felt her team should get the No. 1 overall seed, but unlike last year when the Gamecocks finished off an undefeated season with a national title, this team has three losses heading into March Madness, including one to the Bruins.

“Two key factors between UCLA and South Carolina. One was the head-to-head matchup,” NCAA selection committee chair Derita Dawkins said. “The other was one of our criteria is competitive in losses and South Carolina suffered a 29-point loss to UConn. Those were the two key differences in those resumes.”

Staley’s team is looking to be the first team to repeat as champion since UConn won four straight from 2013-16. The Huskies, who are a two-seed, are looking to end that drought with star Paige Bueckers. They’ll have to go out west if they reach the Sweet 16 and a potential rematch with JuJu Watkins and the Trojans could be waiting in the Elite Eight.

The path for all won’t be easy: This year there’s more parity in the sport. This NCAA Tournament will be only the second one in the past 19 years to have no teams entering March Madness with zero or one loss. The other time was in 2022.

The Trojans and Bruins, newcomers in the Big Ten this season, will try to win the first national championship for the conference since 1999, when Purdue won the lone one. A record 12 teams from the Big Ten are in the field. The SEC has 10 and the ACC eight. The Big 12 has seven.

The Ivy League received three bids to the tournament for the first time in conference history. Last season, Columbia earned the second at-large bid in league history. The Lions are back again as well as Princeton. Both are 11 seeds and will be competing in play-in games. Harvard, which won the conference tournament, is a 10 seed.

Duke, TCU and N.C. State joined the Huskies on the 2-seed line. Notre Dame boasts wins over Texas, USC and UConn but slumped the last few weeks of the regular season and fell to a three-seed.

William & Mary is one of six teams set to make its first appearance in the women’s NCAA Tournament. The others are Arkansas State, Fairleigh Dickinson, George Mason, Grand Canyon and UC San Diego. Four teams are headed to the men’s tournament for the first time: High Point, Omaha, SIU Edwardsville and UC San Diego.

The Tribe (15-18) are the first sub-.500 team since Incarnate Word in 2022 to make the tournament.

Virginia Tech, James Madison, Saint Joseph’s and Colorado were the first four teams left out of the field.

Payout time

For the first time in NCAA history, there will be a financial incentive for women’s teams. They will finally be paid for playing games in the NCAA Tournament just like the men have for years.

So-called performance units, which represent revenue, will be given to women’s teams for each win they get. A team that reaches the Final Four could bring its conference roughly $1.26 million over the next three years in financial performance rewards.

This comes a year after the women’s championship game that saw South Carolina beat Caitlin Clark and Iowa do better TV ratings then the men’s title game.

Tournament sites

The top 16 seeds in the 68-team field will host first- and second-round games, with the regional rounds being played at two neutral sites for the third straight year. Spokane, Washington, will host half of the Sweet 16 and Birmingham, Alabama, will host the other eight teams.

The Final Four will be played in Tampa, Florida, on April 4, and the championship game is two days later.

Tournament tidbits

One team that didn’t make the field was Stanford, which ended the Cardinal’s 36-year streak of playing in the NCAA Tournament. It’s the first time since 1987 that Stanford won’t play in the NCAAs. While that streak is over, Tennessee continued its NCAA Tournament run of appearing every year in the field since the first NCAA Tournament in 1982. The Lady Vols are a five-seed.

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP women’s college basketball: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-womens-college-basketball-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/womens-college-basketball





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