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Last Call for 3.10.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

With the 2025 Legislative Session underway, Florida TaxWatch will host its annual State of the Taxpayer Dinner tomorrow night.

The event will take place at the Goodwood Museum & Gardens in Tallahassee, providing a platform for the state’s elected leaders and policymakers to engage directly with the concerns of hardworking taxpayers and their families.

The evening will commence with a reception from 5 to 6:30 p.m., followed by dinner and a program from 6:30 to 8 p.m. 

The dinner’s confirmed speakers include Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, Senate Democratic Leader Jason Pizzo, Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic Calabro, and Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp.

Florida TaxWatch has been a nonpartisan, independent government watchdog for over 40 years. Its focus is on improving government accountability and productivity. The organization researches to assess the impact of fiscal and economic policies on taxpayers and businesses.

Media representatives are invited to attend, and a riser and press feed box are available on-site. An agenda will be provided to those who RSVP before the event. Prospective attendees can contact Christina Johnson via [email protected] to RSVP.

Evening Reads

—“Thirty charts that show how COVID changed everything” via Aatish Bhatia and Irineo Cabreros of The New York Times

—“The 28 wackiest lines from Donald Trump’s interview with Maria Bartiromo” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”People with disabilities rely on Uber. Could a federal rule limit access?” via Shauna Muckle of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Trump’s $5 million gold citizenship card: What South Florida advisers say about the plan” via David Lyons of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—”Inside America’s fluoride rebellion” via Kris Maher of The Wall Street Journal

—”The life and mystery of Luigi Mangione” via Lorena O’Neil of Rolling Stone

—”We got rid of acid rain. Now something scarier is falling from the sky.” via Benji Jones of Vox

—”‘Wake up Democrats!’: Frustration boils over with party’s response to Trump” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel

—”Juul Labs suit: AG announces $79 million settlement over marketing to kids claims” via Jackie Llanos of the Florida Phoenix

—”Silver Bulletin College Basketball ratings” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

Quote of the Day

“Much like the DeSantises’ fool’s errand in 2024 against President Trump where he got crushed, this data shows that the DeSantises would suffer a similar fate in Florida if Casey should run for Governor.”

— Fabrizio Lee & Associates partner Tony Fabrizio, on polling showing Byron Donalds dominating the GOP field for Governor.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Pour U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds a Riding High now that his Trump endorsement has rocketed him to the top of the 2026 polls.

The Josh Weil campaign, unfortunately, will be sipping on Bicycle Thiefs at happy hour tonight.

Former Tallahassee Democrat Publisher Skip Foster gets a pint of Red Tape for his new publication spotlighting … red tape.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

NFL free agency begins

Today at noon, the NFL’s “legal tampering” period began in free agency. In truth, teams and agents have been sending messages back and forth for months so it should come as no surprise that a number of deals are already being reported.

Here’s a rundown of the moves made by the three Florida teams so far.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the most active team. Under new general manager James Gladstone and a new coaching staff, the Jaguars have agreed to terms with eight new players as of 4 p.m. ET today.

Offensive linemen Chuma Edoga of the Dallas Cowboys and Patrick Mekari of the Baltimore Ravens, wide receiver Dyami Brown of the Washington Commanders, tight ends Hunter Long and Johnny Mundt, defensive backs Eric Murray of the Houston Texans and Jourdan Lewis of the Cowboys and quarterback Nick Mullens who worked under new Jaguars’ offensive coordinator Grant Udinski in Minnesota. 

The Miami Dolphins are limited in free agency by limited salary cap space but the Dolphins could add depth on both lines and will likely need to find a veteran quarterback to back up Tua Tagovailoa.

Miami wide receiver Braxton Berrios signed with the Texans in free agency but Miami re-signed defensive tackle Matt Dickerson.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-signed wide receiver Chris Godwin to a three-year extension and guard Ben Bredeson to a three-year contract while defensive end Haason Reddick left the Jets for Tampa Bay.

Officially, teams can submit new contracts to the league starting on Wednesday.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Jim Oberweis becomes first Republican to file for Byron Donalds’ seat in Congress

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A former Illinois state Senator just became the first Republican to file to succeed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds.

Jim Oberweis, former Chair of Oberweis Dairy, filed on March 5 to run in Florida’s 19th Congressional District.

The Bonita Beach Republican is no stranger to federal campaigns. Shortly after his 2012 election to the Illinois Senate, the businessman became the Republican nominee against U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, in 2014, according to Ballotpedia. He also ran for an open U.S. House seat in Illinois in 2020 but lost to Democrat Lauren Underwood, who still holds that seat today.

But now, Oberweis hopes to stake out ground early in a heavily Republican district in Southwest Florida. Donalds has already announced he will run for Governor in 2026, opening the federal office.

“The priority of our Federal government needs to be families, students and businesses creating new jobs — not woke special interests,” Oberweis said in a statement on his campaign website. “We must work together to create economic opportunity, to create an impenetrable southern border, and create new monetary oriented foreign policy priorities needed to grow the Florida economy while shrinking the size of our bloated Federal government.”

Oberweis is curiously one of multiple candidates with roots in Illinois who now hope to represent Southwest Florida in Congress.

Jack Lombardi, a onetime congressional candidate in Illinois, already told Florida Politics before Donalds announced that he may run for the seat if it opens up. Catalina Lauf, another former Illinois congressional candidate who worked in the Commerce Department under Trump, has also moved to Florida and been suggested as a possible candidate.

A number of other candidates are reportedly considering runs, including former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, former U.S. Rep. Chris Collins of New York, former state Rep. Spencer Roach, Lee County Commissioner Cecil Pendergrass, state Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka and Sun Broadcasting President Jim Schwartzel.

Democrat Howard Sapp, an air traffic controller who previously ran for the Florida House, has also filed for the seat.

But CD 19 remains a Republican stronghold, where Donalds won more than 66% of the vote in November.


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Don Gaetz’s affordable housing bill advances through committee

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A Senate panel advanced an affordable housing bill that would allow homeowners to build accessory dwelling units on their primary property, in hopes of tackling the housing crisis in Florida.

Pensacola Republican Sen. Don Gaetz introduced the measure (SB 184). The committee adopted an amendment that clarified that accessory dwelling units, or ADUs, cannot be used as short-term rentals for less than 30 days, while allowing manufactured homes to be used as ADUs as long as they meet requirements.

“It’s styled as an affordable housing bill, but it could also be used as a private property rights bill,” Gaetz told members of the Senate Appropriations Committee on Transportation, Tourism, and Economic Development.

“Through the Live Local Act, the state has taken significant steps to address the affordable housing and workforce housing needs. This bill takes another step. As an affirmation of property rights, this bill requires local governments to allow accessory dwelling units or ADUs in any areas zoned for single family residential use but does not apply and specifically exempts planned unit developments or master planned communities.”

Gaetz explained that an ADU is a smaller, independent and fully functioning house that would be located on the same lot as a standalone home. Local governments would be restricted from imposing additional parking restrictions or denying a homestead exemption on the portion of property that is maintained as a permanent residence by the owner.

The bill further allows a density bonus incentive in current law to apply to housing that’s affordable for military families receiving the basic housing allowance.

“ADUs increase workforce housing because ADUs cost less to build, they cost less to rent, and they’re often located in urban areas where workers need to live in order to be close to their jobs,” Gaetz added.

Orlando Democratic Sen. Carlos Guillermo Smith supported the bill’s passage after the amendment clarified that ADUs would not be able to be used as vacation rentals. He noted that the legislation does a lot to address Florida’s housing shortage.

“We have a real affordable housing crisis in the state of Florida, and a big part of that crisis has everything to do with supply, or lack of supply,” Smith said. “Bringing in these ADUs to help add to the housing supply is a great idea that should be encouraged. Initially when I read the bill, I had questions on potential mischief around vacation rentals, but your amendment mostly addressed that question.”

Smith added that the bill would make other dwellings available if people are better able to get ADUs installed on their properties.

“I applaud you for bringing this forward, I think we should be doing everything we can to increase the housing supply that we have in the state of Florida,” Smith said. “Ultimately at the end of the day, you are making an additional available unit that any person would be able to occupy, and in theory, open up other available units that are being used.”

St. Petersburg Republican Sen. Nick DiCeglie, the committee Chair, praised the bill.

“I want to thank you for bringing this bill forward,” DiCeglie said.” I represent Pinellas County which is the most densely populated county in our state, there are 24 municipalities in Pinellas, it becomes very difficult to get all of them on the same page when it comes to housing, when it comes to affordable housing, so I commend you on your leadership on this bill as well.”

The bill passed unanimously and will now move on to the Senate Committee on Rules.


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Donald Trump doubles planned tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% as trade war intensifies

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President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will double his planned tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% for Canada, escalating a trade war with the United States’ northern neighbor.

Trump said on social media that the increase of the tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday is a response to the price increases that the provincial government of Ontario put on electricity sold to the United States.

“I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD,” Trump posted Tuesday on Truth Social.

The U.S. President has given a variety of explanations for his antagonism of Canada, saying that his separate 25% tariffs are about fentanyl smuggling and voicing objections to Canada putting high taxes on dairy imports that penalize U.S. farmers. But he continued to call for Canada to become part of the United States as a solution, a form of taunting that has infuriated Canadian leaders.

“The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State,” Trump posted on Tuesday. “This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.”

The U.S. stock market promptly fell following his social media post, triggering more concerns after a brutal selloff on Monday that puts Trump under pressure to show he has a legitimate plan to grow the economy instead of perhaps pushing it into a recession.

Trump was set to deliver an afternoon address to the Business Roundtable, a trade association of CEOs that during the 2024 campaign he wooed with the promise of lower corporate tax rates for domestic manufacturers. But his plans for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, steel, aluminum — with more to possibly come on Europe, Brazil, South Korea, pharmaceutical drugs, copper, lumber and computer chips — would amount to a massive tax hike.

The stock market’s vote of no confidence over the past two weeks puts the president in a bind between his enthusiasm for taxing imports and his brand as a politician who understands business based on his own experiences in real estate, media and marketing.

Harvard University economist Larry Summers, a former Treasury Secretary for the Bill Clinton administration, on Monday put the odds of a recession at 50-50.

“All the emphasis on tariffs and all the ambiguity and uncertainty has both chilled demand and caused prices to go up,” Summers posted on X. “We are getting the worst of both worlds — concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything.”

The investment bank Goldman Sachs revised down its growth forecast for this year to 1.7% from 2.2% previously. It modestly increased its recession probability to 20% “because the White House has the option to pull back policy changes if downside risks begin to look more serious.”

Trump has tried to assure the public that his tariffs would cause a bit of a “transition” to the economy, with the taxes prodding more companies to begin the years-long process of relocating factories to the United States to avoid the tariffs. But he set off alarms in an interview broadcast on Sunday in which he didn’t rule out a possible recession.

“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” ”There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of — it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I don’t — I think it should be great for us. I mean, I think it should be great.”

The promise of great things ahead did not eliminate anxiety, with the S&P 500 stock index tumbling 2.7% on Monday in an unmistakable Trump slump that has erased the market gains that greeted his victory in November 2024. The S&P 500 index fell roughly 0.4% in Tuesday morning trading.

The White House after the markets closed on Monday highlighted that the tariffs were prompting companies such as Honda, Volkswagen and Volvo to consider new investments in U.S. factories.

It issued a statement that Trump’s combination of tariffs, deregulations and increased energy production had led industry leaders to promise to “create thousands of new jobs.”

The significance of thousands of additional jobs was unclear, as the U.S. economy added 2.2 million jobs last year alone, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.


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