UK retail footfall throughout February showed “resilience amid seasonal and economic pressures” as retailers look [nervously?] ahead to the Spring Budget.
Image: Charter Walk, Burnley
That’s MRI Software’s take on retail visits across the 2February-1March trading period as footfall fell by 0.3% compared to last year in all UK retail destinations. The decline was driven by a 1.5% dip in high street activity.
“This aligns with trends typically witnessed in February and may be reflective of adverse weather conditions and transport disruptions impacting footfall”, the report noted.
But on a month-on-month basis, footfall numbers were more upbeat, rising 7.3% in all UK retail destinations “which aligns with historical trends observed each February as activity levels normalise following the post-Christmas slump”.
Weekday year-on-year footfall last month rose marginally (+0.1% year on year) whereas weekend footfall declined 3.8%, which “may well reflect shoppers urging caution in light of price increases”, MRI said.
Footfall trends over a 24/7 period also highlighted a core area of growth, with the early evening period (5pm–8pm) growing by 0.9% annually during February, “continuing the positive trend in the evening economy as consumers combine leisure, dining and retail experiences”.
However, that weekend footfall drop suggests “that shoppers may still be managing discretionary spending carefully in light of ongoing cost pressures”.
And MRI’s ‘Central London Back to Office’ benchmark also highlighted a 3.5% drop in footfall during February compared to last year, the first annual drop experienced in 11 months, it noted.
But it highlighted that the flu season, which has been especially disruptive in recent months, “is likely to have impacted people’s willingness and ability to visit busy retail destinations and offices”.
The report also said that “retailers remain optimistic” as 55% of those surveyed in its weekly ‘Insights from the Inside’ poll revealed sales during the February half-term holiday were higher this time compared to last year. It provided a boost for physical retail destinations, particularly shopping centres and high streets where footfall jumped 9% and 11.6%, respectively,
However, 58% of retailers contacted also expect March sales to be lower compared to last year as the Easter holiday shifts into mid-April.
“As the sector prepares for the upcoming Spring Budget, attention is turning to how financial policies may further influence consumer confidence and retail spending. Potential changes in tax, public spending, and household support will be closely monitored for its impact on disposable income and retail demand in the months ahead”, MRI concluded.
Macy’s forecast annual sales and profit below Wall Street’s expectations on Thursday, joining several U.S. retailers in signaling that shoppers were holding off buying apparel and accessories in the face of economic uncertainty.
Reuters
The department-store chain, which sources a significant portion of its self-branded goods from China, is also expected to take a hit as President Donald Trump‘s newly announced tariffs will likely place an additional burden on already tight American household budgets.
Retailers from Walmart to Target have also issued cautious forecasts for the year on concerns about a potential hike in product prices across categories including food, automobiles and electronics, which could deter consumers from buying these items.
Macy’s said it expects 2025 net sales between $21 billion and $21.4 billion, compared with the average analyst estimate of $21.81 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
The company sees annual adjusted profit per share between $2.05 and $2.25, compared to an estimate of $2.31 per share.
It is also resuming share buybacks under its remaining $1.4-billion share repurchase authorization.
Macy’s nameplate banner saw comparable sales fall 0.9% on an owned-plus-licensed basis in the fourth quarter.
CEO Tony Spring, who took over a year ago, has outlined a plan to turn the struggling department-store chain around by closing 150 Macy’s stores through 2026.
The company is betting on sales growth by opening more stores of its higher growth Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury luxury divisions, which saw comparable sales on an owned basis rise 4.8% and 6.2%, respectively, in the reported quarter.
Macy’s fourth-quarter sales fell 4.3% to $7.77 billion, compared to analysts’ estimate of $7.87 billion.
It had said in January that it expected net sales to be at or slightly below the low end of its $7.8 billion to $8 billion forecast.
Euro zone retail sales unexpectedly dipped in January, adding to signs that a long-predicted consumption-led recovery is not yet on the horizon, fresh data from Eurostat showed on Thursday.
Reuters
Retail sales in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency dipped by 0.3% on the month, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise, as non-food products and fuel sales both fell.
It was the fourth straight month of contraction or zero growth, and retail figures have been trending down for the past half year.
Consumption was widely expected to take off in the second half of last year as real wages finally caught up to levels before the inflation surge of 2022-2023.
But households are still choosing to save up their cash, worried that the relentless flow of negative news from trade tensions to Russia’s war in Ukraine and an industrial recession could drag the bloc into recession and lead to massive job losses.
Those fears have been proven wrong so far as employment continues to rise to record highs but hours worked are falling and order levels in manufacturing remain low, denting confidence.
Among the bloc’s biggest countries, Germany reported a small rise in retail sales, but France and Italy both recorded drops.
Retail sales rose by 1.5% compared with a year earlier, a slowdown from 2.2% a month earlier and also below expectations for 1.9%.
Weak consumption is a key reason the European Central Bank is all but certain to cut interest rates once again on Thursday and keep the door open to more monetary policy easing.
After a period of well-publicised expansion comes a period of consolidation for Beaverbrooks. The UK family jewellery/watch retailer has said it will close seven UK stores in March and April following a performance review by senior management.
Beaverbrooks
It will bring its store count down to 82 showrooms.
Earmarked for closure are units in East Kilbride and Dundee, Scotland (16 March), following by Birmingham Fort and High Wycombe (23 March), Huddersfield (5 April), and Croydon and Sutton Coldfield (6 April).
Each has been deemed “no longer commercially viable” by the retailer.
However, on the flip-side, it said there are plans to open a new store in Harrogate in the spring “to accommodate consumer demand [there]”. Also, a scheduled number of branches earmarked for renovation will go ahead in the coming year.
On the impending redundancies, Anna Blackburn, managing director of Beaverbrooks, told The Sun newspaper: “We aim to retain as many colleagues as possible within other Beaverbooks stores or the wider business, and are working closely with each individual affected to provide them with other options for their specific needs, supporting them with their next steps whatever they may be.”
However, there was no mention of whether the current crop of closures will be Beaverbrooks’ last.
According to its most recent financial report for the 53-week period ended 2 March 2024, profits had fallen “considerably” with the accompanying Companies House statement in September saying: “Despite increasing turnover and market share, profitability for the period was reduced considerably which reflects significant and broad increases in costs.”
It added: “We have also continued to invest in our core infrastructure (people, property, and systems) to protect and strengthen the business for future growth. As a result depreciation has also risen reflecting the high levels of investment in recent years.”