The news rippled through Treasure Island, Florida, almost like a third storm: The Mayor planned to move off the barrier island a month after Hurricane Helene flooded tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast and two weeks after Hurricane Milton also ravaged the state.
Mayor Tyler Payne’s home had been flooded and damaged beyond repair, he explained in a message to Treasure Island residents, and he and his husband can’t afford to rebuild. He also was stepping down as Mayor.
“While it pains my heart to make this decision in the midst of our recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, this is the best decision for me and my family,” Payne, who had held the office for more than three years and was a fourth-generation Treasure Island resident, said Monday.
Up and down Florida’s storm-battered Gulf Coast, residents are making the same calculations about whether they should stay or go. Can they afford to rebuild? What will insurance cover? People considering moving to Florida are contemplating whether it’s worth the risk to come to a hurricane-prone state.
These existential questions about Florida’s appeal are raised regularly after the state experiences a busy hurricane season, such as in 2004, when four hurricanes crossed the Sunshine State.
If moves into the state offer any answer, then hurricanes have served little as deterrents. Florida’s population has grown by one-third to 23 million residents in the two decades since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ravaged the state. Last year, Florida added more than 365,000 residents, second only to Texas among states.
On the other hand, there are signs that Florida’s white-hot real estate market has cooled. Sales of single-family homes were down 12% in September compared with the same time in the previous year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs likely played bigger roles than the recent hurricanes.
“Florida recovers much faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, Chief Economist for Florida Realtors.
What happens after a storm?
Studies of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast have shown that any outbound migration tends to be short-lived, and if people do leave, it’s usually a short-distance move, such as from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with more financial resources are more likely to return to devastated communities.
When it comes to the housing market, there may be an initial shock to the supply as homeowners wait for reimbursement from insurance companies to fix up their homes or sell them.
But in the three years after a hurricane, home prices in areas of Florida that were hit by one are 5% higher on average than elsewhere in the state because of smaller supply, according to a study of the impact of hurricanes on Florida’s housing market from 2000 to 2016. New homeowners tend to be richer than previous ones since wealthier buyers can absorb price increases.
Other factors that determine how quickly communities bounce back include whether homes were insured, the speed of insurance reimbursements and whether there are enough construction workers. Because of stricter building codes implemented in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, newer homes withstand hurricanes better than older ones, O’Connor said.
“If a property is damaged and uninsured, and the homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to deal with this,’ there are always people willing to scoop up that property because it’s valuable land,” he said. “People build new homes under the new codes and there’s less of an impact from hurricanes.”
Short term and long term
Recent storms offer examples what happens to communities, both short term and longer term.
In Lee County, home to Fort Myers, Hurricane Ian made landfall two years ago in what had been one of the fastest growing parts of the United States. Population growth slowed afterward to 1.5% from 4.4% before the storm. The number of households dropped from about 340,000 to about 326,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In 2019, three-quarters of all United Van Lines truck moves were into Lee County and a quarter were outbound, but that dropped to two-thirds inbound and a third outbound in 2023 to 2024, the company told The Associated Press.
The share of people in their late 20s, 30s and early 40s increased, as did the share of men with no spouse or partner, reflecting an influx of construction and recovery workers. The share of the white population dropped while it increased for the Hispanic community. The percentage of utility and transportation workers in the county jumped, according to the Census Bureau.
Bay County in the Florida Panhandle, where Michael made landfall as the first Category 5 hurricane on the continental U.S. in a quarter century in 2018, offers a portrait of longer term trends. Four years later, Bay County had recovered its pre-hurricane population, which dropped almost 6% in the year after the storm.
Since Michael, the county has grown more diverse, wealthier and older, with the median age rising from 39.6 to 41.4 and more people identifying as multiracial or Hispanic. The share of households earning $200,000 or more went from 4.3% before the hurricane to 8.3% in 2022 in a sign that some of the least affluent residents couldn’t afford to rebuild or return.
Treasure Island’s mayor
In his message to constituents, Payne said he would still stay connected to the Treasure Island community because his parents plan to rebuild on the barrier island, one of a string of beach towns along the Gulf of Mexico west of St. Petersburg known for motels, restaurants and bars lining the street. Payne, an attorney who also is an executive in his family’s eyeglass-lenses manufacturing business, said in his message that his decision to move was “difficult.”
“I completely empathize with the difficult decisions that are facing so many of our residents,” Payne said.
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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Chuck Millar is a longtime Palm Beach Gardens resident. Over the past four decades, he’s become well-known in the community for his activism and involvement in local government, including a current unelected Chair post on the city’s Planning and Zoning Board.
Now, he’s seeking a seat on the City Commission. It’s his first run at public office.
Elections attract scrutiny. A look into Millar’s legal history shows that seven years ago, he faced accusations of cyberstalking and harassment. An ex-girlfriend sought a temporary restraining order against him, and she included in the request screenshots of messages he sent her.
The woman, whom we’ll call Kathy, filed a petition seeking protection against him for stalking, Palm Beach County Clerk records show. It included a request that Millar stay at least 500 feet from her and four people, including her two daughters, and the Jupiter-based K-12 private school they attended.
She provided proof that between March 4, 2018, when she broke up with him, and March 15, 2018, when she took legal action, Millar sent dozens of texts and emails to which she did not respond.
Some of the messages were sexually demeaning. In others, Millar implied that he was tracking her online dating accounts and referenced a domestic battery case from her past.
Millar is 65. He was 58 at the time he sent the messages. In an email to Millar’s sister seeking help, Kathy said they’d only dated a month, during which she’d broken up with him twice “due to his extreme and violent temper and outbursts that made no sense to me.”
Millar told Florida Politics they dated for a little more than a month. He regretted his actions and the whole ordeal, which ended on March 29, 2018, when Judge Karen Millerof the 15th Judicial Circuit instructed him to stop contacting Kathy before dismissing the case.
“I followed the court’s direction verbatim,” Millar said Thursday, adding that he’d since undergone counseling and treatment. “It made me a better person.”
Millar sent Kathy a lengthy text on March 4, 2018, after she cut things off with him, referencing “issues” and his “character flaws.”
“(I) take full responsibility for my faults. My heart is broken, but you tore my heart to pieces as I prayed each night you’d finally say you loved me, too. Those words are so powerful to me. You’re my true love, and I know it could work. I would have taken a bullet for you,” he wrote.
Later that day, seemingly in response to Kathy telling him her decision was final, Millar’s amorous tenor turned vitriolic.
“I’m fucking done with you too. Go fuck yourself. Get out and stay the hell out of my life. You have serious mental health issues,” he wrote. “You can have your fucking underware (sic) back. Enjoy the pink vibrator. You’ll need it. Bitch!”
Millar sent another text at 3:25 a.m. on March 5.
“Guaranteed the next time you have sex, you’ll think of me. Enjoy that train wreck,” he wrote. “And by the way, I read your entire file on your domestic battery case. It’s public record.”
Kathy said in her petition that she blocked Millar’s number after that.
He then sent her emails. One on March 8 was a variation of the prior message. “Your comment about never dating again is just total crap,” he wrote. “You know it, and I know it. But trust me, the next time you have sex with whomever or whatever, you’ll think of me.”
On March 10, Millar sent another email intimating Kathy had “a new man” and that the three of them should meet up at a baseball game. Two days later, he sent her an email titled “Weekend Fun” and asked about dates he believed Kathy had arranged on Match.com.
He wrote again on March 13, telling her, “Enjoy that vacation with your ex, no drama, mama. LOL.”
Later that day, Kathy — who said she and the ex to whom Millar referred never vacationed together — emailed Millar’s sister with screenshots of his communications. Kathy described Millar’s actions as “creepy” and “very frightening” and noted that she’d instructed a security guard at her gated community to call the police if he showed up.
Millar’s sister called her brother’s messages “completely unhinged” and said she’d talk to her husband about developing a plan of action to deal with him. The sister told Kathy in a follow-up email that after conferring with her spouse, they’d decided to stay out of it but advised Kathy to “take whatever steps (are) necessary to ensure” her and her children’s safety, including filing a temporary injunction or calling the police.
In the days that followed, Millar continued with his emails. One included a message Kathy sent him about a continuous neighborhood issue she’d had with her homeowner’s association. In another, Millar said he’d spoken with one of the association’s board members with whom Kathy had an issue.
“I see this as a threat from Chuck that he will continue to contact (the board member) and get in my neighborhood that way. Empty threat because I have taken necessary action and alerted our Board and the Security company of his actions,” Kathy told Millar’s sister. “I’m terrified of your brother. He’s a loose canon (sic). Right now, I want to move as far away from him as I can, but I can’t.”
A log of texts sent to Kathy’s cellphone show he messaged her 25 separate times in nine days.
Florida Politics contacted Kathy by text and email for comment but received none by press time.
Millar told Florida Politics he was “very remorseful” about his behavior, which he attributed to issues he’s since addressed in therapy. He said it was the first time he’d been broken up with by text.
“My emotions overcame my intelligence. That doesn’t usually happen,” he said. “My past has made me what I am today, which is a better ex-husband, father, brother and employee, and the best and most qualified candidate.”
He said that if he thought he still had emotional issues that needed addressing, he wouldn’t be running for office.
“It was an unfortunate thing, but it was a learning tool that I use today to be a better person, to understand empathy and sympathy,” he said. “I have the utmost respect for women, and most of my campaign team is made up of amazing ladies.”
A land use, zoning, planning, and real estate research professional, Millar switched his voter registration from Democrat to Republican in 2016, according to state records. He faces 47-year-old Republican firefighter John Kempfor the City Council’s Group 4 seat.
The Palm Beach Gardens election is on March 11. In the race, incumbent Commissioner Marcie Tinsley and her lone challenger, John “Scott” Gilow, will also be on the ballot.
U.S. Rep. Mike Haridopolos and his Space Coast connections have already paid off for Florida, at least in terms of positioning.
Haridopolos, a Republican from Indian Harbour Beach representing Florida’s 8th Congressional District, has snagged a leadership position on the the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics that will have direct impact on the Space Coast.
“I am honored to be selected to serve as Chairman of the Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee,” Haridopolos said in a news release announcing the appointment Thursday. “Since the earliest days of our space program, Florida’s Space Coast has been the launchpad for America’s journey to the stars. From the Apollo missions that first carried Americans to the Moon to today’s groundbreaking private sector launches, our skies have always been at the forefront of space exploration. Space is central to our district’s identity and economy, providing countless high-paying jobs and opportunities.”
That subcommittee oversees U.S. space policy and associated programs and reviews expansion of space exploration, security and innovation projects.
Rep. Brian Babin, a Republican Congressman from Texas, is the chair of the Congressional Committee on Science, Space and Technology (SST). He said adding Haridopolos to run the subcommittee was a good fit.
“Over the past several years, the SST Committee has diligently worked to support and advance our nation’s space endeavors. As the representative of Florida’s Space Coast, the Congressman brings valuable expertise and leadership that will undoubtedly enhance our efforts to keep America at the forefront of exploration and development. I am excited to work alongside him to propel our space agenda forward,” Babin said.
Just two weeks ago in his first address on the floor of the House, Haridopolos sang the praises of DonaldTrump’s new presidential administration, hypothesizing the change in power would pay dividends for the Space Coast. Haridopolos also touted progress made by billionaire entrepreneur and Trump supporter Elon Musk, including Musk’s SpaceX, which he said has reinvigorated space programs in Brevard County.
“This renaissance has been powered by game-changing private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose ingenuity has turned spaceflight into a thriving ecosystem of public-private collaboration,” Haridopolos said January 16.
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Florida Republicans’ intraparty battle continued Thursday, with the Legislature telling the Governor that it was their way or the highway, not the other way around. Ron DeSantis returned the favor by threatening defiant lawmakers with primary challengers.
Reminiscent of a call by DeSantis earlier this month, House Speaker Daniel Perez helda town hall withstate GOP leaders, pushing the Legislature’s narrative on the immigration bill scuffle packaged alongside criticism of the Governor’s plan.
According to those on the call, Perez said the Legislature’s bill was more conservative than the one pushed by DeSantis, which he claimed was a thinly veiled play to give the Governor a “mini version of ICE” that would duplicate the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown efforts rather than augment them.
“He (DeSantis) is not going to work with ICE. He wants a little mini version of ICE. He wants his own state guard, with his own bureaucrat, picking up the illegal aliens and shipping them off to another portion of the world, wherever it is that they originate from. That’s not working (in) conjunction with President Trump.”
The Governor, meanwhile, amped up his rhetoric — he has gone from casting the Legislature’s bill as “weak, weak, weak” to a “very grotesque piece of legislation.” He’s also directing more frustration at Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, whomhe accusedof instigating this saga by supposedly leveraging his influence as a former Senate President.
As it stands, the Legislature is still winning the numbers game, with just one GOP lawmaker — Rep. Mike Caruso — publicly breaking ranks to side with the Governor.
“This was an argument waiting for an excuse. If not for immigration, they would have fought over new hours for the cafeteria.”
— Former Rep. Joel Rudman, on the Legislature v. Ron DeSantis bout.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Rudman’s campaign for Florida’s 1st Congressional District may’ve gone bust, but Doc Rock deserves a “Peace Out” for heading for the exit before the gloves came off.
Separate from his war with the Legislature, DeSantis is catching flak from Tucker Carlson, who called him a “donors’ puppet.” Since the strings aren’t showing up on camera, however, we’re recommending he be served a Muppet.
With all the drama, we imagine rank-and-file staffers are itching for politics-free happy hour. A Paris Between the Warsshould help them forget work for a few minutes.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Gators face Vols in key rematch
For the second time this month, the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers meet when the teams tip off on Saturday in Knoxville (noon ET, ESPN).
On Jan. 7, Florida shocked then-top-ranked Tennessee 73-43 in Gainesville. The win was among the Gators’ most notable regular-season victories in program history. Ince beating Tennessee, Florida (18-2, 5-2 SEC) has won four of five games, only losing to Missouri on Jan. 14.
The game is the first since the school cleared Florida head coach Todd Golden following a four-month investigation into sexual misconduct allegations.
Both teams enter the game ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll. Florida is ranked #5, while Tennessee (17-4, 4-4) is ranked eighth. The game is also the first of four straight for the Gators against ranked teams. Between now and Feb. 11, Florida will face Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Mississippi State.
The Gators are coming off an 89-59 win over Georgia on Saturday. Five Gators scored in double figures in the game, including Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, who each scored 17 points. Both rank in the top 10 in scoring average in the SEC. Clayton is tied for sixth (17.8 points per game), while Martin is tied for 10th (16.1).
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.