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Lindsay Cross faces Ed Montanari in a race that puts Democrats on the defense

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House District 60, nestled within the city of St. Petersburg, is one of the rare opportunities across the state for Republicans to further grow their supermajority. And the party believes they have the right man for the job in Ed Montanari.

But getting past incumbent Democratic state Rep. Lindsay Cross won’t be an easy feat, and Montanari faces a couple of big obstacles. He’s running against a popular incumbent, and the district still favors Democrats.

Montanari, a current member of the St. Pete City Council who is term-limited out of office this year, is exactly the type of candidate GOP strategists imagine for a district like HD 60. It’s blue, but not blue enough to be out of reach. And Montanari is a strong conservative, but he’s shown plenty of ability to work across the aisle and don a moderate hat.

Cross, meanwhile, is also a great candidate for a somewhat swingy district — though her campaign would argue this district is not one of those. She’s become skilled at bringing home resources for her constituents, despite serving in the minority party. And Republican colleagues, though they disagree with her on partisan issues, have worked with her on legislation.

So what should voters expect as the votes are tallied Tuesday night? In 2024, nothing should be ruled out, but it’s likely the race will be close. Here are some things to watch in the matchup between Montanari and Cross.

Is it really swingy?

Voter registration numbers in HD 60 are tricky. On the surface, the district seems to be shifting right.

Democrats enjoy a voter registration advantage of a little more than 3,000 voters, with 40,285 registered Democrats compared to 37,248 Republicans, according to the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections’ district voter registration data from July. That’s an advantage for Cross of a little less than 3 percentage points.

A look at historic voter registration data for the district available on the Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections website shows that in 2020, the last Presidential Election year, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 7 percentage points.

But those numbers include only active voters. When counting inactive voters, the advantage for Democrats — and by proxy, Cross — increases to about 6 percentage points, or about 6,000 voters.

Inactive voters are eligible to vote. Voters are declared inactive if there is reason to believe their address has changed (usually through information provided from the U.S. Postal Service when a person provides change-of-address information) and they don’t respond to a request for updated information, or if the voter has not voted in the past two federal General Elections.

A 2023 law toughened voter roll maintenance requirements for local Supervisors of Elections, which led to nearly 1 million voters statewide being moved from active to inactive status. It imposed the two-election requirement to move voters to the inactive list.

And the trend cannot be entirely attributed to the district becoming more red. The number of active voters in the district is lower now than it was in 2020, despite population growth. And the number of inactive voters has grown every election cycle, with 7,238 voters on the inactive rolls four years ago, 12,789 in 2022 and 27,260 this year. (The district in 2020 was House District 68; it became HD 60 in 2022 as a result of redistricting.)

Cross’ campaign, asked about voter registration trends in early September, rejected the notion that the district is moving toward the GOP.

“The insinuation that only active voters count is categorically incorrect,” Cross Campaign Manager Will Shedden said. “The 60th District is trending away from Republicans, and Representative Cross led all statewide Democrats in her district because she listens and she fights on their side.”

The issues

For what is expected to be one of the most competitive House races this cycle, the campaigns have been largely quiet, and mostly void of any negative campaigning. Montanari even praised Cross in an interview with Florida Politics following Hurricane Helene for her efforts trying to expand the My Safe Florida Home Program to help residents harden homes against flooding, though he added that he’d have a better shot at success serving from the majority.

Cross has attacked Montanari on at least one issue: abortion.

It’s a topic Democrats are leaning into heavily this election cycle. It remains salient after the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, removing federal bans on strict abortion bans and kicking the issue to states. It became more salient after an Alabama Supreme Court decision threatened in vitro fertilization access. And in Florida it is especially relevant considering Cross shares the ballot with Amendment 4, an effort by reproductive freedom advocates to enshrine abortion access into the state constitution.

Cross launched an ad in late September attacking Montanari over votes he made related to abortion while serving on the City Council. To be clear, the City Council has no authority to regulate, or deregulate, abortion access. But the board did consider providing city funding to help pay for residents’ out-of-state abortion care.

Montanari voted against the measure twice. In the final vote on the abortion measure, only two City Council members voted in favor, with the others arguing the move would subject the city to potentially costly litigation as it would likely violate state preemption.

But Montanari, during that same meeting last April, also voted against a symbolic resolution supporting a women’s right to choose and urging Mayor Ken Welch’s administration not to spend money on any activity that would criminalize abortion. Montanari in that vote was one of just two Council members to vote against the resolution, with others seeing the measure as a way to show support for women without risking costly legal action.

The ad featured a local veterinarian, Dr. Abi O’Connor, somberly retells her own tragic abortion experience.

“I needed an abortion to save my life,” she explains. “So, when politicians like Ed Montanari vote against access to abortion, they’re voting against critical care for women in the worst moments of their lives. Women shouldn’t die because of extreme politicians.”

Politicking amid back-to-back hurricanes

Both Cross and Montanari temporarily suspended campaign activities amid preparation for and recovery from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. And both rolled up their sleeves to help residents who were suffering devastation.

Montanari was himself heavily impacted, with his home and both vehicles flooded. Despite dealing with the massive undertaking that is navigating the property and flood insurance process, Montanari immediately got to work searching for solutions for impacted residents, both short-term and long-term.

Montanari said he’s working with state officials to establish a program where people are able to perhaps live in habitable trailers on their own properties. It’s a possibility that would provide a workable solution to the housing crisis that the storm exacerbated, while also allowing property owners to stay on their properties to oversee remediation construction.

He’s also looking ahead to a potential first term in the Legislature, with property insurance now his top priority. That includes, Montanari recently told Florida Politics, continuing to refine tort laws surrounding the insurance industry. It also includes investigating possible bad actors who attempt to undercompensate storm or other disaster victims.

Cross, meanwhile, showed up to help residents. After both hurricanes, Cross participated in several cleanup and resource distribution events, and she helped collect items for storm victims.

In her official capacity, Cross also asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency to deploy Direct Temporary Housing for residents who were displaced by either hurricane. Her request included access to manufactured housing units, transportable housing units and direct leases.

About the candidates

Cross is an environmental scientist with more than two decades of experience, particularly in clean water efforts in the Tampa Bay area. As such, one of her campaign priorities is ensuring access to a clean Tampa Bay and healthy drinking water.

Other campaign priorities include lowering insurance costs; stabilizing rising utility rates; increasing affordable housing options; protecting reproductive freedom; supporting small business; growing the local economy; strengthening public schools; and ensuring access to quality, affordable health care.

Montanari is a retired commercial pilot and served as a fighter pilot in the U.S. Air Force. He was first elected to the City Council in 2015. This is his first campaign for partisan office.

In addition to reforming Florida’s insurance industry, Montanari’s campaign priorities also include investing in the environment; making housing affordable; securing our borders; prioritizing flood resilience; ensuring quality education through expanded school choice; and standing with police.

So, who’s going to win?

There hasn’t been much polling on the race, at least not from sources that share them. One poll, an internal one from Cross’ campaign, shows a big advantage for the incumbent Democrat, with a double-digit lead over Montanari. Her 12-point lead in that poll overperforms the top of the ticket, where just 43% of respondents favored a generic Democrat, compared to the 50% who said they support Cross.

Matt Isbell of MCI Maps also released an analysis of 2022 voting trends showing the district has stayed plenty blue, and in some cases went more blue. For U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, voters in the district rejected him by nearly 2 percentage points more in 2022 than in 2016. In the Governor’s race, which saw a bludgeoning of Charlie Crist by Gov. Ron DeSantis and led a massive statewide red wave that cycle, HD 60 stayed blue, even with a 10-point swing toward the right.

But Republicans, and Montanari himself, still see an opening.

“This is a very winnable race for us,” Montanari previously told Florida Politics, pointing to active voter rolls. “Voter registration is rapidly trending in our direction, and I am proud to have the complete backing of the Florida House Majority Campaign Committee and many elected officials in Pinellas County.”

Both candidates have been well-funded in their fight, though Cross has consistently held a fundraising edge.


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Palm Beach Gardens Council candidate faced stalking accusations; there’s texts

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Chuck Millar is a longtime Palm Beach Gardens resident. Over the past four decades, he’s become well-known in the community for his activism and involvement in local government, including a current unelected Chair post on the city’s Planning and Zoning Board.

Now, he’s seeking a seat on the City Commission. It’s his first run at public office.

Elections attract scrutiny. A look into Millar’s legal history shows that seven years ago, he faced accusations of cyberstalking and harassment. An ex-girlfriend sought a temporary restraining order against him, and she included in the request screenshots of messages he sent her.

The woman, whom we’ll call Kathy, filed a petition seeking protection against him for stalking, Palm Beach County Clerk records show. It included a request that Millar stay at least 500 feet from her and four people, including her two daughters, and the Jupiter-based K-12 private school they attended.

She provided proof that between March 4, 2018, when she broke up with him, and March 15, 2018, when she took legal action, Millar sent dozens of texts and emails to which she did not respond.

Some of the messages were sexually demeaning. In others, Millar implied that he was tracking her online dating accounts and referenced a domestic battery case from her past.

Millar is 65. He was 58 at the time he sent the messages. In an email to Millar’s sister seeking help, Kathy said they’d only dated a month, during which she’d broken up with him twice “due to his extreme and violent temper and outbursts that made no sense to me.”

Millar told Florida Politics they dated for a little more than a month. He regretted his actions and the whole ordeal, which ended on March 29, 2018, when Judge Karen Miller of the 15th Judicial Circuit instructed him to stop contacting Kathy before dismissing the case.

“I followed the court’s direction verbatim,” Millar said Thursday, adding that he’d since undergone counseling and treatment. “It made me a better person.”

Millar sent Kathy a lengthy text on March 4, 2018, after she cut things off with him, referencing “issues” and his “character flaws.”

“(I) take full responsibility for my faults. My heart is broken, but you tore my heart to pieces as I prayed each night you’d finally say you loved me, too. Those words are so powerful to me. You’re my true love, and I know it could work. I would have taken a bullet for you,” he wrote.

A screenshot of a text Chuck Millar sent an ex-girlfriend on March 4, 2018. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.

Later that day, seemingly in response to Kathy telling him her decision was final, Millar’s amorous tenor turned vitriolic.

“I’m fucking done with you too. Go fuck yourself. Get out and stay the hell out of my life. You have serious mental health issues,” he wrote. “You can have your fucking underware (sic) back. Enjoy the pink vibrator. You’ll need it. Bitch!”

Another text later that day. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.

Millar sent another text at 3:25 a.m. on March 5.

“Guaranteed the next time you have sex, you’ll think of me. Enjoy that train wreck,” he wrote. “And by the way, I read your entire file on your domestic battery case. It’s public record.”

Kathy said in her petition that she blocked Millar’s number after that.

A text Millar sent early the following day. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.

He then sent her emails. One on March 8 was a variation of the prior message. “Your comment about never dating again is just total crap,” he wrote. “You know it, and I know it. But trust me, the next time you have sex with whomever or whatever, you’ll think of me.”

On March 10, Millar sent another email intimating Kathy had “a new man” and that the three of them should meet up at a baseball game. Two days later, he sent her an email titled “Weekend Fun” and asked about dates he believed Kathy had arranged on Match.com.

He wrote again on March 13, telling her, “Enjoy that vacation with your ex, no drama, mama. LOL.”

An email Chuck Millar sent “Kathy” about her online dating activity. Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.

Later that day, Kathy — who said she and the ex to whom Millar referred never vacationed together — emailed Millar’s sister with screenshots of his communications. Kathy described Millar’s actions as “creepy” and “very frightening” and noted that she’d instructed a security guard at her gated community to call the police if he showed up.

Millar’s sister called her brother’s messages “completely unhinged” and said she’d talk to her husband about developing a plan of action to deal with him. The sister told Kathy in a follow-up email that after conferring with her spouse, they’d decided to stay out of it but advised Kathy to “take whatever steps (are) necessary to ensure” her and her children’s safety, including filing a temporary injunction or calling the police.

In the days that followed, Millar continued with his emails. One included a message Kathy sent him about a continuous neighborhood issue she’d had with her homeowner’s association. In another, Millar said he’d spoken with one of the association’s board members with whom Kathy had an issue.

“I see this as a threat from Chuck that he will continue to contact (the board member) and get in my neighborhood that way. Empty threat because I have taken necessary action and alerted our Board and the Security company of his actions,” Kathy told Millar’s sister. “I’m terrified of your brother. He’s a loose canon (sic). Right now, I want to move as far away from him as I can, but I can’t.”

An email from Chuck Millar’s sister to “Kathy.” Image via Palm Beach County Clerk’s Office.

A log of texts sent to Kathy’s cellphone show he messaged her 25 separate times in nine days.

Florida Politics contacted Kathy by text and email for comment but received none by press time.

Millar told Florida Politics he was “very remorseful” about his behavior, which he attributed to issues he’s since addressed in therapy. He said it was the first time he’d been broken up with by text.

“My emotions overcame my intelligence. That doesn’t usually happen,” he said. “My past has made me what I am today, which is a better ex-husband, father, brother and employee, and the best and most qualified candidate.”

He said that if he thought he still had emotional issues that needed addressing, he wouldn’t be running for office.

“It was an unfortunate thing, but it was a learning tool that I use today to be a better person, to understand empathy and sympathy,” he said. “I have the utmost respect for women, and most of my campaign team is made up of amazing ladies.”

A land use, zoning, planning, and real estate research professional, Millar switched his voter registration from Democrat to Republican in 2016, according to state records. He faces 47-year-old Republican firefighter John Kemp for the City Council’s Group 4 seat.

The Palm Beach Gardens election is on March 11. In the race, incumbent Commissioner Marcie Tinsley and her lone challenger, John “Scott” Gilow, will also be on the ballot.


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Mike Haridopolos named Chair of House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics

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U.S. Rep. Mike Haridopolos and his Space Coast connections have already paid off for Florida, at least in terms of positioning.

Haridopolos, a Republican from Indian Harbour Beach representing Florida’s 8th Congressional District, has snagged a leadership position on the the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics that will have direct impact on the Space Coast.

“I am honored to be selected to serve as Chairman of the Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee,” Haridopolos said in a news release announcing the appointment Thursday. “Since the earliest days of our space program, Florida’s Space Coast has been the launchpad for America’s journey to the stars. From the Apollo missions that first carried Americans to the Moon to today’s groundbreaking private sector launches, our skies have always been at the forefront of space exploration. Space is central to our district’s identity and economy, providing countless high-paying jobs and opportunities.”

That subcommittee oversees U.S. space policy and associated programs and reviews expansion of space exploration, security and innovation projects.

Rep. Brian Babin, a Republican Congressman from Texas, is the chair of the Congressional Committee on Science, Space and Technology (SST). He said adding Haridopolos to run the subcommittee was a good fit.

“Over the past several years, the SST Committee has diligently worked to support and advance our nation’s space endeavors. As the representative of Florida’s Space Coast, the Congressman brings valuable expertise and leadership that will undoubtedly enhance our efforts to keep America at the forefront of exploration and development. I am excited to work alongside him to propel our space agenda forward,” Babin said.

Just two weeks ago in his first address on the floor of the House, Haridopolos sang the praises of Donald Trump’s new presidential administration, hypothesizing the change in power would pay dividends for the Space Coast. Haridopolos also touted progress made by billionaire entrepreneur and Trump supporter Elon Musk, including Musk’s SpaceX, which he said has reinvigorated space programs in Brevard County.

“This renaissance has been powered by game-changing private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose ingenuity has turned spaceflight into a thriving ecosystem of public-private collaboration,” Haridopolos said January 16.


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Last Call for 1.30.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Florida Republicans’ intraparty battle continued Thursday, with the Legislature telling the Governor that it was their way or the highway, not the other way around. Ron DeSantis returned the favor by threatening defiant lawmakers with primary challengers.

Reminiscent of a call by DeSantis earlier this month, House Speaker Daniel Perez held a town hall with state GOP leaders, pushing the Legislature’s narrative on the immigration bill scuffle packaged alongside criticism of the Governor’s plan.

According to those on the call, Perez said the Legislature’s bill was more conservative than the one pushed by DeSantis, which he claimed was a thinly veiled play to give the Governor a “mini version of ICE” that would duplicate the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown efforts rather than augment them.

“He (DeSantis) is not going to work with ICE. He wants a little mini version of ICE. He wants his own state guard, with his own bureaucrat, picking up the illegal aliens and shipping them off to another portion of the world, wherever it is that they originate from. That’s not working (in) conjunction with President Trump.”

The Governor, meanwhile, amped up his rhetoric — he has gone from casting the Legislature’s bill as “weak, weak, weak” to a “very grotesque piece of legislation.” He’s also directing more frustration at Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, whom he accused of instigating this saga by supposedly leveraging his influence as a former Senate President.

As it stands, the Legislature is still winning the numbers game, with just one GOP lawmaker — Rep. Mike Caruso — publicly breaking ranks to side with the Governor.

Evening Reads

—“Donald Trump blames predecessors, diversity programs for fatal air collision” via Isaac Arnsdorf of The Washington Post

—“The 25 most eye-popping lines from Trump’s off-the-rails remarks on the D.C. plane crash” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—“The plane crash that ripped through the world of elite figure skating” via Louise Radnofsky, Allison Pohle and Jennifer Levitz of The Wall Street Journal

—“Trump kicks Congress to the curb, with little protest from Republicans” via Carl Hulse of The New York Times

—“What it’s like to go to school in the shadow of ICE” via Anna North of Vox

—“Trump is just watching this crisis unfold” via David A. Graham of The Atlantic

—”As GOP rift widens, Ron DeSantis pledges money to elect ‘strong conservative’ successor” via Skyler Swisher of the Orlando Sentinel

—”Joel Rudman said he felt unwelcome in a House ‘itching for a fight’ with DeSantis” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—”‘Powerless and angry’: Venezuelans react to roll-back of deportation protections” via Verónica Egui Brito and Syra Ortiz Blanes of the Miami Herald

—”Mercenaries for Millionaires: Inside the private army that protects L.A.’s rich and famous” via Jason McGahan of The Hollywood Reporter

Quote of the Day

“This was an argument waiting for an excuse. If not for immigration, they would have fought over new hours for the cafeteria.”

— Former Rep. Joel Rudman, on the Legislature v. Ron DeSantis bout.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Rudman’s campaign for Florida’s 1st Congressional District may’ve gone bust, but Doc Rock deserves a “Peace Out” for heading for the exit before the gloves came off.

Separate from his war with the Legislature, DeSantis is catching flak from Tucker Carlson, who called him a “donors’ puppet.” Since the strings aren’t showing up on camera, however, we’re recommending he be served a Muppet.

With all the drama, we imagine rank-and-file staffers are itching for politics-free happy hour. A Paris Between the Wars should help them forget work for a few minutes.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators face Vols in key rematch

For the second time this month, the Florida Gators and Tennessee Volunteers meet when the teams tip off on Saturday in Knoxville (noon ET, ESPN).

On Jan. 7, Florida shocked then-top-ranked Tennessee 73-43 in Gainesville. The win was among the Gators’ most notable regular-season victories in program history. Ince beating Tennessee, Florida (18-2, 5-2 SEC) has won four of five games, only losing to Missouri on Jan. 14.

The game is the first since the school cleared Florida head coach Todd Golden following a four-month investigation into sexual misconduct allegations.

Both teams enter the game ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll. Florida is ranked #5, while Tennessee (17-4, 4-4) is ranked eighth. The game is also the first of four straight for the Gators against ranked teams. Between now and Feb. 11, Florida will face Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Mississippi State.

The Gators are coming off an 89-59 win over Georgia on Saturday. Five Gators scored in double figures in the game, including Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, who each scored 17 points. Both rank in the top 10 in scoring average in the SEC. Clayton is tied for sixth (17.8 points per game), while Martin is tied for 10th (16.1).

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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