Politics
Last Call for 11.4.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics
Last Call – A prime-time read on what’s happening in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
Florida Democrats may be licking their wounds after another Republican sweep of the statewide ticket. Their state House caucus, however, will return to Tallahassee with something it hasn’t had in years: actual leverage.
Democrats entered Election Day with just 34 members, not even enough to populate an MLB club’s 40-man roster, and only one member shy of their 33-seat nadir following Susan Valdés’ and Hillary Cassel’s party flips.
The party now has at least 49 seats, with a real shot at 50, depending on the outcome in Brevard-based House District 33, where Democrat Daniel McDow currently leads Republican Monique Miller in a race likely to go to a recount.
Democrats flipped 16 Republican-held seats in races already decided while losing only one of their own — Republican Jon Maples reclaimed Palm Beach County-based HD 87 for the GOP, ousting Rep. Emily Gregory months after her shocker win in the District that encompasses Mar-a-Lago. Should McDow’s lead hold, Dems will post a plus-16 net gain.
“I look forward to working with all of my colleagues, returning and new, as we prepare for the upcoming Legislative Session,” Democratic Leader-designate Christine Hunschofsky said in a prepared statement.
“With the newly broken Republican supermajority, House Democrats have an extraordinary opportunity: over the next two years, this Caucus will fight for a more affordable Florida where our communities can truly thrive. I am honored to be leading this Caucus, and look forward to the work ahead.”
A 49- or 50-member caucus doesn’t put Democrats in control of the 120-member chamber — Republican Rep. Sam Garrison is still a lock for 2026-28 Speaker, and GOP leadership will likewise choose Committee chairs, set the agenda, and reliably whip the 61 votes needed to pass ordinary legislation.
But Democrats need 41 to break the GOP supermajority, and crossing that threshold has consequences. So does crossing 48 members — putting a constitutional amendment on the ballot requires 72 House votes, meaning Republicans will need support from at least one Democrat, perhaps two, to put a question before voters in 2028.
Overriding a gubernatorial veto or waiving the requirement that bills be read on three separate days — a procedural move invoked to fast-pass legislation — takes 80 votes. Imposing or increasing a state tax also takes two-thirds support. Democrats now have the power to deny Republicans a rubber stamp on both fronts.
The balance shift could be consequential even for routine bills — 11 Republicans opposed the 2023 crackdown on public-sector unions that nevertheless passed 72-44. In a 71-49 House, the same defections would produce a 60-60 tie. Two years ago, the contentious vacation-rental pre-emption fared even worse among Republicans, escaping the House 60-51 only after two Democrats joined 58 Republicans. With the GOP’s slimmer majority, it would’ve arguably been a non-starter.
Hopefully, Hunschofsky’s next agenda item is changing her ringtone from Marimba, because she’ll be getting far more calls than her predecessor.
— Evening Reads —
—“The 28 most tone-deaf lines from Donald Trump’s bizarre post-election ballroom news conference” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—“Seven numbers that explain Democrats’ U.S. Midterm triumph” via Brad Heath and Jason Lange of Reuters
—“There’s no modern precedent for this Democratic tsunami” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times
—“Trump-backed Republican redistricting sought a Midterm edge. It didn’t work” via David A. Lieb of The Associated Press
—“The Trump decade is over” via Derek Thompson on Substack
—“‘Pretend I’m on the ballot’” via Judd Legum of Popular Information
—“Silicon Valley‘s political spending spree meets a blue wave — and a data center revolt” via Emily Shugerman of The San Francisco Standard
—“Are Florida Democrats at a crossroads after Angie Nixon’s run?” via Claire Heddles of the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald
—“Florida Dems scrape together a few wins but miss the big, blue wave” via Andrew Atterbury of POLITICO
—“Major property tax cuts passed in Florida. Local governments must now reckon with the funding losses” via Sharmila Venkatasubban of The Florida Trib
—“Florida Democrats regain strength in state Legislature, flip seats to blue” via Romy Ellenbogen of the Tampa Bay Times
—“Not so fast: CD 27 win margin narrows to recount range in María Elvira Salazar, Eliott Rodriguez race” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
— Quote of the Day —
“The only thing that saved us is we just have so many more Republicans than they do.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on Democrats turning out at a higher rate than Republicans.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy-hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Pour Dan McDow and Monique Miller a Photo Finish. Their race is headed for a recount, so whoever picks up this round should probably count the change twice.
Order María Elvira Salazar a Nail Biter. Her margin over Eliott Rodriguez has narrowed into recount territory, putting the celebration on ice.
Buy Darren Soto a Victory Lap. Ron DeSantis redrew his District, but voters declined to redraw his career plans.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Heat try to turn season around in LA
The Miami Heat try to kickstart the season after a slow start as they visit the Los Angeles Clippers tonight (10:30 p.m. ET, Local 10+/NBA League Pass).
Miami revamped the roster in the offseason, including adding two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, the Heat lost five of their first seven games. Defensively, the team is allowing opponents to make more 3-point field goals than any team in the league, and Antetokounmpo and center Bam Adebayo haven’t looked in sync early in the season.
After losing the first four games of the season, the Heat beat the Hawks in Atlanta and the Indianapolis Pacers at home before losing to the Lakers to start a five-game western road trip. Antetokounmpo has led the team in scoring in six of the first seven games, averaging 28.4 points and 12.3 rebounds per game.
The Clippers have also struggled to start the season, winning just one of the first seven games. They are mired in a six-game losing streak, the longest current skid in the NBA. Injuries have slowed the Clippers, with veterans Brandon Ingram and Bradley Beal each missing time.
After tonight’s game, the Heat continue the road trip tomorrow at Golden State, Sunday in Sacramento, and next Tuesday at the Utah Jazz before returning home to begin a five-game homestand on Nov. 13 against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
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Peter Schorsch publishes Last Call, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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