Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.20.26

Good Tuesday morning.

The Florida Chamber Foundation is assembling a cross-section of Florida’s political, business and education establishment for its annual Future of Florida Forum next week.

U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, Attorney General James Uthmeier and Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky are among the featured speakers scheduled for the two-day event, set for Oct. 27-28 at the JW Marriott Orlando Bonnet Creek.

The 2026 Future of Florida Forum and Florida Chamber Annual Meeting will examine Florida’s progress toward the 39 goals included in the Chamber’s Florida 2030 Blueprint. Those include the organization’s overarching goal of making Florida one of the world’s 10 largest economies by 2030.

Scott is slated to discuss affordability, economic growth and policies intended to make the “American Dream” more attainable. Uthmeier will join Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods to discuss public safety, while Yaworsky will address competition and costs in Florida’s property and auto insurance markets.

Other panels will examine some of the state’s most consequential growth questions.

Tampa Electric President and CEO Archie Collins and Florida Digital Infrastructure and Security Alliance Executive Director Imran Siddiqi will discuss data centers and Florida’s expanding digital infrastructure. Tampa General Hospital President and CEO John Couris and Palantir Technologies executive Ted Mabrey will detail the companies’ partnership and how it applies to patient care.

The education and workforce program includes Florida Education Commissioner Henry Mack, Disney executive Tajiana Ancora-Brown, Valencia College President Kathleen Plinske and University of Central Florida President Alex Cartwright. Additional discussions will cover Florida’s space industry, life sciences, local permitting and the state’s targeted industries.

Registration remains open for in-person and virtual attendance.

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

—@MuseeLouvre: Dear visitors, due to student strikes, the museum is currently closed. We apologize for the inconvenience.

—@umichvoter: Big early voting partisan shifts across Florida. The largest is in Jefferson, which is moving from R+31 in the 14-day duration of 2024 EV to R+9 on Day 1 of 2026 voting

—@BrenanMeyer: With the lunch rush over, Dems continue to put up high EV numbers. Reps have made little headway in reducing the Dems’ 50,000-vote lead from the mail-only period. Dems retain a 47,000-vote lead. Dems have slipped from +6 to +4.7, but that’s a much slower decline than expected.

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

—@Meredithllee: In GOP ad spending news, the NRCC is going up with its first coordinated ad buy with Anna Paulina Luna in #FL13, per @AdImpact_Pol. (President Donald) Trump +13 District. TV buy is $324,895 and starts 10/21.

—@TheFlaBar: The Florida Bar is aware of messages that were possibly sent from an employee’s social media account that contained inappropriate content, and we have started an internal investigation into this matter.

— DAYS UNTIL —

Florida TaxWatch Fiscal Accountability Leadership Summit begins — 1; FEC Pre-General Report due — 2; General Election ballot request deadline — 2; Mandatory General early voting begins — 4; Meta’s new political and issue ad freeze begins — 7; General Election — 14; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 17; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 17; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 22; ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol’ starring Johnny Depp premieres — 24; ‘Paper Tiger’ starring Adam Driver premieres — 24; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me, America’ is released — 28; New legislator training sessions — 28; Senate convenes for general organization and selection of officers — 28; ‘Madden’ premieres — 29; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 31; ‘Blade Runner 2099’ premieres on Prime Video — 36; ‘The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres in IMAX — 36; Committee Week #1 — 41; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 59; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 59; ‘Six Kings Slam 2026’ begins — 68; Committee Week #2 — 76; Committee Week #3 — 83; ‘Ahsoka’ season 2 premieres — 92; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 97; Committee Week #4 — 104; The 2027 Florida State Fair begins — 107; ‘Remain,’ directed by M. Night Shyamalan, premieres — 108; Grammys — 110; Committee Week #5 — 111; Super Bowl LXI — 117; Committee Week #6 — 118; Opening day of the 2027 Regular Legislative Session — 133; Tampa Mayoral Election — 133; ‘The Thomas Crown Affair,’ directed by and starring Michael B. Jordan premieres — 136; Jacksonville First Election — 140; Oscars — 145; Miami Marlins Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. New York Mets — 156; Tampa Bay Rays Opening Day/Home Opener — vs. Baltimore Orioles — 156; Democratic Mayors Association 2027 annual summit in Miami begins — 176; Jacksonville General Election — 210; ‘Star Wars: Starfighter’ premieres — 220; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 241; Citrus Series — Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins — 269; ‘The Bluey Movie’ premieres — 290; Citrus Series — Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays — 325; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 423; 2028 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary — 459; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 461; 2028 Nevada Presidential Primary — 469; 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary — 476; 2028 New Mexico Democratic Presidential Primary — 483; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 486; 2028 Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary — 490; 2028 Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary — 497; Oscars — 502; ‘X-Men’ premieres — 563; ‘Miami Vice ’85’ reboot premieres — 577; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 584; ‘Days of Thunder’ sequel with Tom Cruise and Anne Hathaway premieres — 591; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 605; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 633; ‘Ghost Rider’ premieres — 647; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 749; ‘Black Panther 3’ directed by Ryan Coogler premieres — 787; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 825; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,158; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,886.

— TOP STORY —

“Byron Donalds, Ashley Moody lead Florida races despite Latino unease over ICE raids” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Republican Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 50% to 42% in Florida’s Governor’s race, according to a new N+ Univision/YouGov poll. Among Latino voters, however, Jolly leads 48% to 43%, highlighting divisions over immigration enforcement.

Republicans also maintain advantages in other statewide contests. U.S. Sen. Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 9 percentage points, while Republicans hold a 5-point advantage in congressional races. Latino voters narrowly favor Democrats in both contests.

Immigration enforcement remains contentious. Fifty-five percent of Latino respondents believe ICE operations have gone too far, including majorities of Cuban, Puerto Rican and South American voters. Forty-one percent worry they or someone close could be affected by enforcement actions.

Despite those concerns, loyalty to Republicans remains strong. Among Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024, 84% now back Donalds. Cuban voters favor Donalds 51% to 42%, while Puerto Rican voters prefer Jolly 51% to 35%.

Economic dissatisfaction presents another challenge for Republicans. Statewide, 63% disapprove of Trump’s handling of living expenses, 68% disapprove of gasoline prices, and 57% believe the economy is worsening. Latino respondents express even greater dissatisfaction.

YouGov surveyed 825 registered Florida voters and 937 registered Latino voters Oct. 2-15. Both samples carry margins of error of approximately 4 percentage points. The findings suggest Democrats have openings on immigration and affordability, but Republicans retain significant electoral advantages heading into November.

— NAT’L MOOD —

“Donald Trump approval sinks as voters express growing Midterm frustration” via Jason Lange of Reuters — Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 31%, its lowest level in either term, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday. Among registered voters, 47% favor Democrats for Congress, compared with 35% backing Republicans, a wider gap than two weeks earlier. Women favor Democratic candidates 50% to 32%, while men also lean Democratic by a narrower margin. Economic dissatisfaction dominates the findings: 68% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, including 37% of Republicans. Respondents trust Democrats over Republicans on economic stewardship, 40% to 33%. The survey questioned 1,679 adults, including 1,279 registered voters. National polling measures broad sentiment, not individual congressional contests, where local candidates and District boundaries will determine November’s results. Florida voters will also choose representatives.

“Voters voice economic anxiety as Midterms approach in new poll” via Emily Guskin of ABC News — An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds widespread dissatisfaction with the cost of living and the country’s direction ahead of November’s Midterms. Among likely voters, Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% on the congressional ballot, while independents favor Democrats 56% to 35%. Seventy-two percent of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Gasoline is unaffordable to 71%, groceries to 60% and healthcare to 65%. Trump receives 33% job approval among adults, while 66% disapprove. Democratic voters report greater certainty about casting ballots than Republicans, 72% to 65%. The survey interviewed 2,545 adults Oct. 9-13. Its national findings offer a snapshot of public opinion, rather than results for specific House districts. Florida voters face competitive congressional races across Florida.

“New poll finds Asian American voters souring on Trump’s economy” via Terry Tang, Nancy Jiang and Linley Sanders of The Associated Press — Democrats hold a growing advantage among Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults as economic concerns dominate the approaching Midterm Elections, according to a new AP-NORC/AAPI Data poll. Roughly one-quarter of respondents approve of Trump’s overall job performance, while about one in five approves of his handling of the economy. Respondents identified economic issues as a leading election concern and expressed greater trust in Democrats on healthcare and immigration. The findings suggest a potential challenge for Republicans seeking support among diverse communities in competitive congressional districts. Still, Democratic enthusiasm is not universal: nearly half of respondents view the party unfavorably. The survey also found substantial concerns about misinformation, voting access and election integrity in Florida and elsewhere.

— 2026 —

“Money vs. momentum drives Florida Senate race between Moody, Angie Nixon” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel — While Nixon has crisscrossed the state, using live appearances to appeal to a broad coalition of Florida voters, Moody has run a nearly invisible campaign, avoiding large rallies and unscripted gaggles with the media. The contrasts between them are sharp in both style and substance, and the race may come down to money versus momentum. “I think Ashley has run a great campaign,” said Brian Ballard, one of the nation’s most powerful lobbyists. Nixon is reaching out to a broad swath of voters, from Black women like herself to residents of mostly rural, White counties to Hispanic communities, building a coalition among working-class residents, noted Sharon Wright Austin, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

“’Repeal the Big B.S. Bill’: Nixon meets with local AAPI leaders” via Chris Gorman of WMNF — Nixon joined members of Tampa Bay’s Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) community for a leadership roundtable at the Queer Asian Museum in St. Petersburg, discussing voter engagement, political representation, nonprofit funding, and economic challenges. The discussion opened with May Thach, a Cambodian American candidate for state Representative, who emphasized the importance of Asian American representation in government and the challenges of increasing voter participation. Alex Quinto of Equality Florida highlighted the importance of visibility, while Thach discussed language barriers and the lack of political outreach to Asian American communities. Nixon outlined her opposition to “The Big Beautiful Bill,” which she called the “Big B.S. Bill,” arguing that federal cuts have eliminated programs that support individuals and community organizations.

“David Jolly blasts Donalds over data center development in Florida” via Silas Morgan of the Orlando Sentinel — Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jolly criticized Republican opponent Donalds for supporting large data centers, promising a one-year moratorium on new hyperscale facilities if elected. Speaking at an Orlando news conference alongside former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, Jolly accused Donalds of shifting positions while accepting financial support from industry interests. Donalds has defended a balanced approach, warning that development restrictions could discourage business investment. A University of North Florida poll found 68% of Florida voters opposed data centers in their communities, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents. Jolly highlighted concerns about environmental impacts, public health and property values as early voting began across Florida.

“GOP lawmaker cites enthusiasm dip as Florida Democrats seek change” via Jayla Howard of Fox 49 — Democratic Lt. Governor candidate Gwen Graham said she believes voters across Florida are ready for new leadership. Republicans, meanwhile, say they are also taking stock of the political climate. U.S. Rep. Kat Cammack said she has noticed changes her party cannot afford to ignore, including lower enthusiasm. “Do I think that it’s going to be the ultimate swing that the national media has played it out to be? No,” Cammack said. “But I would say enthusiasm, it’s down. I see it. I think anyone who doesn’t acknowledge that isn’t being truthful.” … “I do think that Republicans should be running exceptionally hard and they should be investing in races where even they think they feel safe; they should be investing because votes are like rent and rent is due every election cycle. No one owns the votes of the American people.”

“Donalds contrasts Florida law and order with civil unrest in Paris” via Florida’s Voice — Donalds warned over the weekend that violent, European-style civil unrest will remain “dead on arrival” in the Sunshine State, pointing to strict state public safety laws as violent protests, widespread arson, and looting continue to sweep across France and spread into neighboring Italy. “This is why so many people here in the United States, and quite frankly, other parts of the world, have chosen Florida because they know that we are a safe state,” Donalds added. “We will remain a safe state.”

Eatonville Vice Mayor Angela Thomas endorses Donalds — Eatonville Vice Mayor Thomas is endorsing Donalds for Governor. Eatonville, incorporated in 1887 by 27 Black men, was the first town organized, governed, and incorporated by Black citizens in the United States, and later became home to author Zora Neale Hurston, who set her 1937 novel “Their Eyes Were Watching God” there. “Eatonville has governed itself since 1887, built by people who believed their community knew best how to lead itself. Byron Donalds believes that same thing about Florida families — that they’re capable of making their own decisions, without Tallahassee making those decisions for them. That’s why I’m proud to support him for Governor,” Thomas said. “I’m honored to have Vice Mayor Angela Thomas’s support. Eatonville’s story of self-governance is one of the proudest in Florida’s history, and her leadership carries that legacy forward today. That’s the kind of trust in communities I’ll bring to Tallahassee — letting Floridians run their own lives, not Tallahassee,” Donalds said.

12 former Florida Cattlemen’s Association presidents endorse Donalds — Twelve former presidents of the Florida Cattlemen’s Association, representing more than 30 years of leadership in Florida ranching, have endorsed Donalds for Governor. The group includes Wes Williamson of Williamson Cattle Company in Okeechobee, who led the Association in 2013, and Ken Griner of Usher Land and Timber in Chiefland, who led it in 2017. “Byron Donalds was a great Congressman, and will be a great Governor. He understands the hard work it takes to be in agriculture, and will be a friend to the farmer,” Williamson said. “My family supports Byron Donalds. He understands the total value of agriculture to the State of Florida, economically and environmentally,” Griner said. “As Governor, I will always support our cattlemen as they build on a proud Florida history of ranching and help power our state’s agricultural industry,” Donalds said. “I am honored by this endorsement and proud to stand for our cattlemen and rural communities today and every day.”

“Florida Republicans keep large 1.5 million advantage over Democrats among registered voters” via Jim Turner of News Service of Florida — Florida added more than 225,000 voters since the August Primary, with increases nearly even among registered Republicans and Democrats in that time, according to numbers posted by the Division of Elections. The division reported that 13.7 million Floridians are registered to vote in the Nov. 3 contest. Republicans maintained the sizable advantage they’ve held since 2021 in overall registered voters, with nearly 5.69 million registered Republicans compared to almost 4.15 million registered Democrats. The overall number of voters eligible to vote in the November contest is about 250,000 fewer than in the 2024 Election, partly due to list maintenance required of county Supervisors of Elections.

— MORE ELECTIONS —

“Darren Soto’s internal polls show him tied with Dan Green in critical CD 9 contest” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Internal polling for U.S. Rep. Soto shows him tied with Republican Green. The survey by SEA Polling, which found the candidates in Florida’s 9th Congressional District tied at 41% in August, showed 44% of likely voters in the District plan to support Soto, while an equal 44% back Green instead. A tie in a poll counts as good news for Soto, whom election prognosticators view as the most at-risk Democratic incumbent in Florida. “Soto runs ahead of the Democratic statewide ticket,” a polling memo reads.

“Leela Gray unrolls military and veterans agenda ahead of roundtable with Katherine Clark” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — Congressional candidate Gray unrolled an agenda focused exclusively on veterans and military issues. Her plan hits as she holds a roundtable on veterans issues with House Minority Leader Clark. Gray, a Pinellas Democrat, has stressed her background as a Brigadier General in the Army, as she challenges U.S. Rep. Luna, a Republican (and fellow veteran), in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. “When I put on the uniform, I not only swore an oath to our nation; I made a commitment to my fellow service members,” Gray said.

“Local Sheriffs back Laurel Lee for re-election, praise ‘commitment to public safety’” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — Four local Sheriffs are adding their support to U.S. Rep. Lee’s re-election campaign as she faces a tough election cycle that has put Republicans across the nation on defense even in some deep-red areas. Sheriffs David Vincent of Citrus County, Al Nienhuis of Hernando County, Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County and Chris Nocco of Pasco County are backing Lee for re-election to Florida’s 15th Congressional District, all praising her record supporting public safety. “Congresswoman Lee understands the challenges facing law enforcement and has made public safety a priority throughout her public service,” Chronister said. Nocco said Lee’s record “speaks for itself.”

“Everytown ad for CD 22 casts Pia Dandiya as a voice for gun safety” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — Voters in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District are learning about Democrat Dandiya’s position on gun safety in a new TV and digital ad Everytown for Gun Safety hopes will get her elected next month. It’s part of a $10 million ad blitz by Everytown’s political arm, with which Dandiya has volunteered, and House Majority PAC to support eight congressional candidates in five battleground states. After working in public schools, Dandiya worked at Apple and served as a White House fellow.

“María Elvira Salazar nets another foreign endorsement, this time from Argentina’s President” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics — U.S. Rep. Salazar now has the support of Argentine President Javier Milei in her re-election bid in Florida’s 27th Congressional District. “She defends freedom, democracy, the free market, and the right of every person to prosper through their own effort,” he said. “We need leaders in Washington who understand Latin America, confront the socialist left, and denounce without fear the horrors and deaths socialism has left behind. That leader is María Elvira Salazar. That is why I firmly support her re-election to the United States Congress.”

“Eliott Rodriguez revives Salazar’s fawning Fidel Castro meeting” via Political Cortadito — That old video of Miami Congresswoman Salazar practically swooning over the bearded Cuban dictator has returned from the political graveyard, just in time for early voting. This time, another former television journalist who knows a thing or two about getting answers from Castro is reminding Miami voters about the interview. Democratic congressional candidate Rodriguez, a former CBS Miami anchor and veteran reporter, released a new web video ad Saturday contrasting his own encounter with the communist dictator with Salazar’s now-infamous interview from the 1990s. And, boy, what a contrast.

— EVEN MORE ELECTIONS —

“Republicans target Democrat Jane Aman over witchcraft writings, spellcasting poetry in new HD 37 ad” via Florida’s Voice — The Florida House Republican Campaign Committee has launched a new television ad campaign targeting Aman, accusing the open-seat legislative candidate of harboring radical, left-wing views and highlighting past creative writings referencing witchcraft and spellcasting. Aman, a college instructor and former PhD student at the University of Texas at Austin, is facing off against Republican candidate Robert Prater, a longtime public school educator and administrator in Central Florida. “Some say truth is stranger than fiction … Jane Aman writes about witchcraft, giving real advice on casting spells,” the ad’s narrator states over gothic-themed visuals. “Jane Aman’s politics: just as bizarre.”

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

Walk this way:

— STATEWIDE —

“James Uthmeier files murder charges against Cuba’s Raul Castro” via Liv Caputo of the Tampa Bay Times — Attorney General Uthmeier announced that he will file state charges against Castro for conspiring with Cuban spies in 1996 to commit first-degree murder. A Miami judge on Friday already signed an arrest warrant for the former Cuban President, approved by the chief judge on the 11th Judicial Circuit Court at the request of Uthmeier’s Office of Statewide Prosecution and the Florida Department of Law Enforcement. “Raul Castro called for the planes to be shot down. He called for murder,” Uthmeier said.

“GOP sues to ban ads tying Uthmeier to Hope Florida scandal, threatens TV stations” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel — The Republican Party of Florida is threatening TV stations and the Florida Democratic Party with civil and even criminal sanctions if they don’t cancel an ad targeting Uthmeier because it mentions a leaked grand jury report on the Hope Florida investigation. The lawsuit is an attempt to throttle Floridians’ First Amendment rights and create a chilling effect on any future reporting on the Hope Florida scandal, said Bobby Block, executive director of the First Amendment Foundation. “The administration and the Attorney General have been trying to blame the media almost from the get-go for reporting on this, claiming it was somehow improper,” Block said.

“Florida sits out national fight over sports betting prediction markets” via Gary Fineout of POLITICO — Uthmeier declined to join 39 states and Washington, D.C., urging the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether states can regulate sports betting through prediction markets. The decision comes as the Seminole Tribe sues DraftKings, alleging its prediction markets violate Florida’s gambling laws. The dispute threatens a compact generating more than $1.1 billion annually for Florida. Trump supports federal oversight, while his son advises Kalshi, a prediction market operator. Kalshi has contributed more than $400,000 to Florida political campaigns, including $53,000 benefiting Uthmeier. Democratic challenger Jose Javier Rodriguez criticized the Attorney General’s silence. Uthmeier’s office declined to explain Florida’s absence from the multistate legal effort, despite potential consequences for state revenue.

— D.C. MATTERS —

“Secret text sparks White House investigation into Ric Grenell’s Kennedy Center dealings” via Marc Caputo of Axios — Trump ordered an investigation into allegations that adviser Grenell offered a Turkish billionaire access to administration officials in exchange for a Kennedy Center donation. A disputed 2025 text allegedly promised VIP events and proximity to Trump. Turhan Mildon, husband of Trump adviser Alina Habba, claims Grenell directed a $17.6 million transfer to a Texas defense company, including roughly $5.6 million intended for the Kennedy Center. The money never reached the institution. Records indicate the transfer originated from Congo’s Finance Ministry, raising questions about its source. Habba confronted Trump, prompting White House Counsel Will Scharf to investigate. Grenell denies sending the message or diverting funds. Investigators are examining the evidence and transactions.

“Federal judges confront Trump over sweeping changes to Washington landmarks” via Gary Fields of The Associated Press — Federal judges are increasingly drawn into disputes over Trump’s ambitious plans to remake Washington landmarks, raising questions about executive authority and legal oversight. Lawsuits challenge projects involving the Kennedy Center, a proposed White House ballroom, public golf facilities and other prominent sites. Judges accustomed to constitutional disputes now face arguments over tree removal, construction schedules and whether preliminary work may proceed while litigation continues. Some have expressed frustration that rapid changes could outpace meaningful judicial review. The administration maintains its redevelopment ambitions, while opponents question compliance with legal and environmental requirements. The disputes could shape both the appearance of the nation’s capital and the limits courts impose on presidential control of federal properties and public spaces across America.

“Trump creates federal women’s health division with new executive order” via Bill Barrow and Collin Binkley of The Associated Press — Trump signed an executive order establishing a Women’s Health Division at the National Institutes of Health and a White House task force focused on women’s medical research. First Lady Melania Trump championed the initiative, which seeks advances in maternal health, infertility, menopause, heart disease and other conditions affecting women. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will lead the task force. The order emphasizes improved diagnosis, treatment and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, but does not specify new funding. The administration also rescinded a comparable initiative launched under President Biden. The announcement arrives weeks before the Midterm Elections, as Republicans seek to improve their standing with female voters nationwide.

“Homeland Security temporarily shields Ukrainians and Sudanese from deportation” via Gisela Salomon of The Associated Press — The Department of Homeland Security granted a temporary reprieve to more than 100,000 Ukrainians and Sudanese whose deportation protections were scheduled to expire Monday. Approximately 101,000 Ukrainians and 1,800 Sudanese hold Temporary Protected Status, a federal designation allowing eligible foreign nationals to remain in the United States because of dangerous conditions in their home countries. DHS said covered individuals retain protection while officials consider their next steps, but offered no timetable for a final decision. The agency also did not clarify whether employment authorization would continue. The announcement provides immediate relief to affected families amid ongoing conflict abroad, while leaving their longer-term immigration status uncertain. The decision underscores ongoing federal disputes over humanitarian immigration protections across Florida communities.

“Deep-red districts emerge as battlegrounds in fight for House control” via Mariana Alfaro, Anna Liss-Roy and Eric Lau of The Washington Post — Democrats are expanding their congressional battlefield into traditionally Republican Districts as the November Midterms approach. The Cook Political Report identifies 46 competitive House races, including 21 toss-ups, with Democrats needing a net gain of three seats for control. Florida features prominently, with Congresswomen Luna and Salazar facing competitive challenges from Democrats Gray and Eliott Rodriguez. Redistricting also complicates re-election bids for Democratic Congresswoman Kathy Castor and Congressman Jared Moskowitz, while an open South Florida seat sets up another contest. Trump’s declining approval ratings, economic concerns and the war with Iran have contributed to the changing political landscape nationally.

— LOCAL: S. FL —

“Judge rules North Miami Mayor ‘shall be disqualified as a candidate’” via Bridgette Matter and Andrea Torres of Local 10 — Miami-Dade County Circuit Judge Beatrice Butchko Sanchez ruled against North Miami Mayor Alix Desulme on Monday at the Osvaldo N. Soto Miami-Dade Justice Center. George Morgan, a candidate for Mayor, asked the court to disqualify Desulme, who was running for re-election on Nov. 3, over how he paid his qualifying fees. “He shall be disqualified as a candidate for Mayor,” Butchko Sanchez said, as she read her ruling. Desulme may seek an emergency stay and appeal the ruling. “He is very disappointed,” said Attorney Ben Kuehne, who represents Desulme. Florida election law requires that the fee be paid from a campaign account and signed by the campaign’s treasurer, and Desulme paid with bank-issued cashier’s checks.

“Miami archbishop accuses Uthmeier of bullying Catholic schools over vaccines” via Dara Kam of State Affairs Florida — Miami Archbishop Thomas Wenski accused Uthmeier of “classic bullying” for threatening state voucher funding over Catholic schools’ vaccination requirements. Uthmeier questioned why the schools refuse religious exemptions, citing concerns about fetal stem cells used in vaccine development. Wenski countered that Catholic teaching supports the vaccinations and that government officials should not dictate church policy. Catholic schools permit medical exemptions but maintain vaccination requirements to protect students and staff. The dispute comes as Florida health officials propose eliminating several childhood vaccine mandates, including those for hepatitis B and chickenpox. Wenski warned that weakening vaccination protections could revive preventable diseases, including measles, while undermining public health and religious freedom.

“Miami bakery becomes flashpoint after Democratic campaign stop” via Martin Vassolo of Axios — A campaign appearance by House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries alongside congressional candidate Rodriguez at CAO Bakery in Pinecrest triggered a political backlash among Miami’s Cuban American community. Rodriguez, a Democrat, is challenging Republican Salazar in Florida’s 27th Congressional District. Critics on social media associated the bakery’s hosting of Democrats with support for socialism, an especially sensitive accusation among some Cuban exile families. CAO Bakery responded that it is a family business, not a political organization, and rejected the suggestion that hosting an event constituted an ideological endorsement. Vicky Bakery also issued a statement distancing itself from socialism. The dispute illustrates how a campaign stop can spill into a broader argument over political identity and local businesses.

—“4 things to know about Palm Beach County’s $175 million library bond on the Nov. 3 ballot” via Wilkine Brutus of WLRN

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“Mike Crabb, Kamia Brown battle in Orange County runoff” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — Crabb, a Republican, joined the Orange County Commission in the heat of the election season when Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him to the vacant District 2 seat. Now, Crabb wants voters to elect him to a full term, arguing he brings needed fiscal responsibility to the County Commission. His opponent, Democrat Brown, is staging a political comeback after serving three terms in the state House from 2016 to 2022. Brown and Crabb compete in a Nov. 3 runoff in one of the more intriguing local matchups on the ballot. “No one can touch the experience that I’ve had,” Brown said.

“Amendment 3 sparks ‘Save Deer Run Again’ initiative in Seminole County” via Maggie Rickerby of Spectrum News 13 — In Seminole County, a neighborhood group is trying to save their community for a second time. Now, the state’s proposed Amendment 3 has reignited that fight. In 2020, the posters read “Save Deer Run.” Neighbors fought for the county to buy the old golf course property. Seminole County eventually bought the golf course in 2021 and plans to turn it into a passive park. Save Deer Run President Deborah Bauer said she supports property tax reform but opposes Amendment 3. If the amendment passes, Bauer and some Deer Run neighbors said they worry the project could be delayed because of funding cuts.

“Volusia County Supervisor of Elections: Sample ballots experiencing mailing delay” via the Palm Coast Observer — The Volusia County Supervisor of Elections office is informing voters that sample ballots for the Nov. 3 General Election have been mailed and should arrive in mailboxes soon after a delay by the office’s printing vendor. The vendor was scheduled to mail sample ballots 10 days before Early Voting began. According to the vendor, the size of the printing job and internal company issues delayed printing and mailing, thus preventing delivery within the planned time frame. Voters can access their sample ballot online at VolusiaElections.gov. Those who would like a printed copy mailed to them may call the Elections office at 386-736-5930, and staff will print and mail one upon request. “Our voters deserve dependable service,” Supervisor of Elections Lisa Lewis added. “We take this matter seriously and are reviewing the vendor’s obligations and the options available to our office.”

“‘They utterly hate them’: Florida candidates, counties face data-center debate” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — Data-center fervor is sweeping Central Florida, as voters pressure political leaders to keep the massive hubs of network infrastructure out of their cities and counties for fear they’ll gobble up local water resources and lead to higher electricity prices. There are no hyperscale centers in Central Florida, though a developer is marketing land in a rural section of Osceola County as a good site for one of the 5,000-plus server facilities drawing public ire. That’s prompted a petition urging county officials to turn down any such request should a data-center developer try to buy the land. At least two other counties are considering moratoriums on data centers, even without any proposals in the pipeline.

“Orange Commissioners approve $786M hotel tax plan despite calls for delay” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel — Orange County Commissioners approved a $786 million tourist tax spending package Monday, rejecting requests to postpone the decision until a newly elected Board takes office. Mayor Jerry Demings secured a 6-1 vote, with Commissioner Kelly Martinez Semrad dissenting. The largest allocation sends $350 million to the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts, along with funding for museums, arts programs, ecotourism, and UCF athletic facilities. Mayoral candidate Tiffany Moore Russell joined protesters questioning the rushed process, while tourism officials criticized the exclusion of Convention Center expansion. The vote comes weeks before voters reshape the County Commission and consider Amendment 3, which could dramatically alter local government finances. Demings defended moving forward despite the objections.

“Magistrate proposes compromise in Orange County teachers’ health insurance dispute” via Steven Walker of the Orlando Sentinel — A special magistrate has recommended a compromise in Orange County Public Schools’ monthslong contract dispute with its teachers’ union, rejecting insurance increases that could impose financial hardship. James Mastriani proposed capping premium increases at 20% and lowering deductibles substantially below District proposals. He also recommended 2.5% raises for effective teachers and 3.5% for highly effective teachers. Union President Clinton McCracken accepted the recommendations and urged District leaders to compromise. OCPS officials are reviewing the fiscal impact ahead of Wednesday’s School Board hearing. The District cites rising healthcare costs and a potential $145 million shortfall, compounded by declining enrollment. The recommendations are nonbinding, leaving the School Board with final authority over the dispute.

— LOCAL: TB —

“Ken Welch and Charlie Crist take mayoral campaigns across St. Petersburg” via Josh Rojas of Spectrum Bay News 9 — St. Petersburg Mayor Welch and former Gov. Crist are taking their competing messages directly to voters as the November Election approaches. Spectrum Bay News 9 followed both candidates for a day on the campaign trail, capturing contrasting approaches to the citywide contest. Welch emphasized his record in office while asking residents to give him another term. Crist rallied supporters, made calls and knocked on doors seeking votes. The report looks at the candidates’ ground operations as early voting opens in Pinellas County. The mayoral race gives residents a choice between the incumbent’s case for continuity and a challenger seeking a return to elected office. Both campaigns are working on early-voter outreach.

“Pinellas ends sexual assault examination contract after patient delays” via Jaila Harrigan of WMNF — Pinellas County is ending its agreement with Suncoast Center to provide forensic examinations for sexual assault survivors after reports of prolonged patient waits. Some patients reportedly waited as long as eight hours for an examination. County officials placed the provider on a corrective action plan beginning June 16, giving staff 90 days to complete training and revise program policies. The county has now notified Suncoast Center that its agreement will terminate Dec. 31, 2026. Officials have considered shifting responsibility for the examinations and associated support services to local hospitals. The decision raises questions about continuity of care, response times and how survivors will access timely examinations. The change also puts oversight of victim services under renewed scrutiny from statewide local government.

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“Janine Plavac, Hunter Miller to face off in November runoff for Alachua School Board District 1 seat” via Nick Anschultz of Main Street Daily News — Incumbent Plavac will face Miller in a Runoff Election for the District 1 seat on Nov. 3 after neither candidate received more than 50% of the vote in August. In an interview with Mainstreet, Miller, a math teacher at Howard W. Bishop Middle School, said he was pleased to get 46% of the vote in the Primary but acknowledged there is still work to do to get the votes he needs in the runoff. Plavac, a teacher at Saint Francis Catholic Academy (SFCA) and the current holder of the District 5 seat, said she was happy about the runoff, adding that it gives people more time to get to know her. “I don’t think we had enough time in the beginning to really get in the community and really get out there and talk to people,” said Plavac, who was appointed to the SBAC in April 2025 to fill Kay Abbitt’s vacancy.

“After Isaias, Pensacola Beach is getting back to business” via Mollye Barrows of the Pensacola News Journal — Less than a week after Hurricane Isaias battered Northwest Florida, the familiar sounds of restaurant chatter, music, and beachgoers are returning to Pensacola Beach as businesses reopen and the island slowly returns to normal. Cleanup crews began picking up storm debris on Oct. 16, and while some properties remain damaged, many of the beach’s popular restaurants, bars and shops have reopened their doors, welcoming locals eager for a little normalcy and visitors determined not to let a hurricane ruin their vacations. Most of the businesses in the core of Pensacola Beach have reopened. Beach bar and restaurant The Dock, on Casino Beach, also escaped Hurricane Isaias with minimal damage and reopened Sunday morning. Flounder’s Chowder House, Crabs on the Beach, Red Fish Blue Fish and The Barefoot fruit bowl business were also among the beach establishments back in operation.

“City Council wants answers from former JTA CEO Nat Ford” via David Bauerlein of The Florida Times-Union — City Council members want answers from former Jacksonville Transportation Authority (JTA) CEO Ford about what caused back-to-back years of red-ink spending that is forcing deep layoffs and transit-service cuts as Ford is set to leave Jacksonville for a new job in Texas. Council member Rory Diamond said the City Council cannot do a full review without “asking the guy who was in charge of all this.” The City Council approved a $158 million budget for the 2024-25 fiscal year, but JTA went $177 million over. Over the past two years, JTA has pulled about $51 million from its financial reserves. “There was just some bad budgeting and some bad basic financial operations,” City Council member Will Lahnen said.

“Firm buying Duval School Board HQ touts big ‘waterfront opportunity’” via Steve Patterson of The Florida Times-Union — The project “puts Jacksonville’s greatest natural asset, the St. Johns River, at the heart of downtown life,” Ashco Centers founder Edward Ashurian said in a release showing renderings of two 20-story towers on the property at 1701 Prudential Drive. Ashurian said he wanted the 4.87-acre project to be “a community gathering place on the St. Johns River where everyone can dine at the water’s edge, stroll the riverfront and explore new amenities.” The Duval County School Board approved selling the site to Ashco for $15,132,000 on Oct. 6, but the agreement gives the School District up to three years to close. The School District hasn’t made a final pick between potential locations for a new headquarters or set a timetable for leaving its current offices.

“Jacksonville ranks near bottom of national city safety study” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — A new WalletHub study places Jacksonville near the bottom of its national city safety rankings, raising questions about public safety, disaster preparedness and financial stability. The city ranked 176th among 182 communities, scoring 39.61 out of 100. Jacksonville finished 170th for home and community safety, 177th for natural disaster risk and 166th for financial safety. No Florida city reached the national top 20. Port St. Lucie led Florida at 25th, followed by Cape Coral at 33rd and Pembroke Pines at 37th. WalletHub compared cities using 41 measures across three categories: crime, disaster exposure, employment, and insurance coverage. The rankings provide local officials another benchmark as communities weigh spending priorities, emergency planning and residents’ everyday economic security across the state.

— LOCAL: SW. FL —

“Naples former Vice Mayor seeks return in City Council Special Election” via Jesse Mendoza of Florida Politics — Former Naples Vice Mayor Terry Hutchison is seeking a return to City Council in the Feb. 2 Special Election, less than a year after term limits ended his eight-year tenure. Hutchison wants to complete the term of Linda Penniman, who resigned from the Council. His campaign emphasizes balancing economic development with neighborhood preservation and defending local control. Hutchison previously clashed with lawmakers over legislation that would change how members of the Naples Airport Authority are chosen. That law shifts appointments from the City Council to elections by Collier County voters beginning this November. The contest follows a shake-up that brought new members John Krol and Scott Schultz onto the Council. Candidate qualifying runs Dec. 4-14, with voting by mail or on Election Day.

“Lee County opens 12 early voting sites ahead of Election Day” via the Cape Coral Breeze — Lee County opened 12 early voting locations Monday, beginning a two-week stretch for residents to cast ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 General Election. Voting runs daily from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. through Oct. 31, with sites in Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Estero, Lehigh Acres and North Fort Myers. Residents may use any county early voting site rather than their assigned Election Day precinct. Voters must present valid photo ID with a signature. The deadline to request a mailed ballot is Thursday, Oct. 22, at 5 p.m. Completed mail ballots must reach the elections office by 7 p.m. Election Day. Secure ballot intake stations will also operate at early voting sites throughout the early voting period.

“Southwest Florida early voting opens with local School Board races” via Davis Suppes of WWSB — Early voting opened Monday across Sarasota, Manatee and Charlotte counties as Southwest Florida voters weigh statewide races and consequential local School Board contests. Sarasota County voters will decide a District 1 School Board runoff between Jimmy Glover and Heidi Brandt for the seat being vacated by Bridget Ziegler. Manatee County voters face two School Board contests: Cindy Spray against Sharon Jefferson in District 2 and Jonathan Mullis against Camden Bedinghaus in District 5. Sarasota officials reported more than 36,000 returned mail ballots by Monday. Voters requesting a mailed ballot face an Oct. 22 deadline, while completed ballots must arrive by 7 p.m. Election Day.

— TOP OPINION —

“Florida voters deserve debates, not candidates avoiding tough questions” via Edward Longe for Florida Politics — Political debates are essential to an informed electorate, yet candidates increasingly avoid them when participation threatens their electoral prospects. Florida offers two examples: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jolly declining to debate Republican Donalds, and Republican Sen. Moody refusing to debate Democratic challenger Nixon. Whatever the political calculations, voters ultimately pay the price.

The first televised presidential debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960 demonstrated how profoundly these encounters can influence elections. Nixon subsequently avoided debates, and presidential candidates did not meet again until Gerald Ford faced Jimmy Carter in 1976. Debates have since become central to American political accountability.

Unlike friendly interviews, podcasts or campaign appearances, debates force candidates to defend their positions before opponents prepared to challenge them. Voters deserve to hear competing proposals on pressing issues, including property insurance, affordability and data centers, rather than carefully managed campaign messaging.

Debates are imperfect. Poor moderation and political theatrics can undermine substantive exchanges. But those shortcomings justify better formats, neutral moderators and mutually agreed rules, not abandoning the process altogether. Candidates seeking public office should welcome scrutiny rather than dictate the conditions under which they answer questions.

Broadcasters also have a responsibility to preserve accountability. When candidates refuse invitations, organizers should proceed with an empty podium, as the Atlanta Press Club did when Republican Sen. David Perdue skipped a 2020 debate against Democrat Jon Ossoff.

Ultimately, elections should reward candidates willing to defend their ideas publicly. Without debates, Floridians risk choosing leaders based solely on what campaigns want them to see.

— MORE OPINIONS —

“Ignore the polls in Florida. Focus on what matters. A voter guide” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel — For the past decade or so, the news coverage of campaigns in America has been exhaustingly predictable. Media obsess over polls rather than issues. Elections are then held, showing that the polls were way off. Media and pollsters then vow to do better next time … yet don’t. So now, as we endure another poll-dominated news cycle — this time offering euphorically optimistic predictions for Democrats in reliably red Florida — forgive me if I’m skeptical. More importantly, though, it doesn’t matter what I think or what the polls say. The only thing that matters is the votes that are actually cast and counted.

“The U.S. has never elected a Black Republican Governor. Can Florida?” via Kate Payne of the Florida Trib — Republicans have captured every statewide elected office, they hold an iron grip on the Legislature with a supermajority in both chambers, and they haven’t lost a Governor’s race since 1998. Donalds himself is a prodigious fundraiser with a national profile and a direct line to the White House. And yet, while Republicans have supported a number of Black nominees for Governor across the country, no Black Republican in American history has been able to accomplish what Donalds is attempting. “Regardless of whether you support him or not, that’s a huge achievement for him to be in this position,” said Sharon Wright Austin, a political scientist at the University of Florida who studies African American political behavior. “He would be what we call a historic first.”

“Donalds offers Republicans a blueprint for winning statewide elections” via Harrison Fields for Florida Politics — Donalds is demonstrating how Republicans can broaden their electoral coalition without abandoning conservative principles. His gubernatorial campaign has emphasized affordability, property insurance and economic opportunity while reaching voters Republicans often overlook. Donalds has engaged college students, Black church congregations and Hispanic communities, particularly in Miami-Dade County. His wife, Erika Donalds, has strengthened that outreach through education policy and school choice advocacy. Polls showing Donalds ahead of Democrat Jolly suggest the strategy is working. His disciplined messaging, willingness to engage the media and focus on everyday concerns offer Republicans a model for future campaigns. The approach could also position Donalds for national leadership beyond Florida.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

— AI —

“The 2026 Florida Automated Vehicles Summit is coming, and so is the future” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — The 14th annual Summit is happening Nov. 11-13 at the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress in Orlando. The three-day event will bring together leaders in autonomous vehicles, AI, transportation infrastructure, public policy and emerging mobility trends. “Florida has an extraordinary opportunity to shape the future of transportation,” said Jeff Brandes, president and founder of the Florida Policy Project and former Florida state Senator. “Autonomous mobility, intelligent infrastructure and new transportation technologies are moving from concept to reality. FAV brings the people who are building this future together with the leaders who can help make it happen.”

— ALOE —

“The four TV shows that heralded America’s fall” via Stephen Marche for The New York Times — This week, The Times rolled out a list of the top 100 TV shows of the 21st century, as decided by a large group of television watchers and insiders. A few familiar shows, long anointed as part of the Mount Rushmore of prestige TV, topped the list: “Breaking Bad” at No. 1, “The Wire” at No. 2 and “Mad Men” at No. 3. (A fourth behemoth, “The Sopranos,” just missed being eligible, having debuted in 1999.)

Any list of great artworks presents a portrait of the era that produced them — in this case, the prestreaming era 20 years ago when cable channels like HBO and AMC ruled the dial, and America felt like the world’s last remaining superpower. But what strikes me about these shows is not just how closely they echo their era, but how presciently they envisioned the turmoil to come that led to the moment we’re in now.

“The Sopranos,” “The Wire,” “Mad Men,” and “Breaking Bad,” besides being among the best shows the medium has ever produced, together served as a televisual Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Two hundred years from now, when people look to understand life in the United States in 2026 — a time of masked federal agents in the streets, presidential pardons for sale and gulag-style detention camps for immigrants — they’d be well advised to bypass whatever happens to be playing currently on TV.

Despite these shows’ very different premises (one about the Mafia, one about the drug trade in Baltimore, one about advertising on Madison Avenue in the 1960s and one about a chemistry teacher turned meth kingpin in New Mexico), all four contained clear warnings about where the country was headed, and their warnings have come true.

At the time of their release, critics saw them collectively as prestige antihero television. We can now see they all had the same antihero at their core: America itself.

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Happy birthday to former First Lady Carole Rome; Dustin Daniels; Tom Flanigan, program director for News at WFSU Public Media; Katie Gannon; and attorney Bruce Denson.

___

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.

The post Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.20.26 appeared first on Florida Politics – Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..

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