Politics
Poll: Dan Franzese enters last 2 weeks of GOP Primary strongly positioned to win in CD 25
As the home stretch of the Republican Primary for Florida’s 25th Congressional District nears, businessman Dan Franzese is strongly poised to win it, according to just-released polling showing him atop the five-candidate field.
The new figures show Franzese likely to take 28% of the vote on the Primary ballot — 5 percentage points more than former state Rep. George Moraitis and 9 points more than former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, whom the Franzese campaign has targeted with negative messaging.
Candidates Joe Kaufman and Raven Harrison stand at 7% and 2% of the vote, respectively.
Among voters who say they have heard of both Franzese and Singer, Franzese leads with 38% of the vote, while Moraitis places second with 27% and Singer third with 18%.
An endorsement from President Donald Trump would sway the contest further toward Franzese, increasing his support to 46% and all but cratering Moraitis’ second-place standing.
New York-headquartered McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 300 likely Republican Primary voters in Florida’s 25th Congressional District by phone and text Aug. 1-2. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by county, race/ethnicity, age, gender and political party registration to correlate with voter turnout from previous Republican Primary elections.
The poll, which Franzese’s campaign commissioned, had a 5.7-percentage-point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.
Its findings included that Franzese has high favorability among CD 25 voters, with nearly twice as many respondents saying they hold a positive opinion of him (42%) as those who say otherwise (22%).
His favorability is particularly strong in Boca Raton, where roughly half of voters (49%) view him positively.
Notably, polling over the last several months shows Franzese’s favorability has skyrocketed as the CD 25 race continues, rising 33 percentage points from 9% in May.
Meanwhile, pollsters find, Singer’s support has collapsed amid negative messaging labeling him as “a liar” and “not MAGA.” Franzese’s campaign is operating a website depicting Singer as a “fake Republican” who gave preferential treatment to developers while trying to quadruple his government pay.
McLaughlin’s survey finds Singer 18 points in the red with voters, favorability-wise, with 45% of respondents viewing him negatively compared to 27% who view him favorably — an 18-point net drop since June and a 32-point net decline since May.
“This is impossible to overcome in a Primary, never mind a General Election,” a McLaughlin memo said.
Asked how they will behave in the General Election if either Franzese or Singer is the Republican Party’s nominee, 67% of respondents say they will vote for Franzese in the General Election, compared to 10% who say they will vote for another candidate and 2% who say they will abstain.
If Singer wins, however, only 43% of respondents say they will cast ballots for him, compared to 28% who say they will vote for someone else, 4% who will sit out of the General Election and 25% who are either undecided or reticent.
A poll memo shared with Florida Politics did not include numbers for Moraitis.
As of June 30, Singer led the GOP field in fundraising and spending for CD 25, with about $2 million raised and $1.03 million spent. Franzese trailed closely behind him, with $1.48 million raised and $1.02 million spent.
Moraitis amassed about $839,000 of which he spent $307,000, while Harrison raised $778,500 and spent $666,500, and Kaufman raised $631,500 and spent $159,000.
As redrawn under a map Trump demanded, the Florida Legislature approved and Gov. Ron DeSantis designed and signed, CD 25 is a coastal district that stretches from Delray Beach in Palm Beach County through Broward and into Miami-Dade’s barrier island communities, including Miami Beach and Sunny Isles Beach.
Polling from May by Beacon Insights similarly found Singer unpopular among CD 25 voters, particularly in Boca Raton, where his job approval was 15 points in the negative. His personal favorability was worse, at -19 points.
The Primary is Aug. 18, followed by the General Election on Nov. 3.
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