Here’s Brunch, a pop-up, weekend email about the 2026 Election Cycle — 8.2.26

Good Sunday morning, and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2026 Election Cycle and more.

There are 16 days until the Primary Elections.

Let’s start the morning by wishing a happy birthday to former Speaker Dean Cannon, President and CEO of GrayRobinson, former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, Landon St. Gordon, Chief Creative Officer at MDW Communications, and our dear friend Kevin Cate.

Breaking overnight: the Los Angeles Dodgers pulled off a massive blockbuster trade, acquiring two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal from the Detroit Tigers. The Dodgers probably just won the World Series, but by making this trade, they’ve all but guaranteed a lockout by the owners.

Be sure to check out our choices for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics here.

Please also check out my latest report for FloridAI (yes, I was in a writing mood this weekend).

I also channeled my inner Steve Vancore to evaluate the latest poll of the Florida GOP race, concluding that it doesn’t just fail the Salt Shaker Test; the whole lid came off, and now dinner is ruined. Read my post here.

I’m really looking forward to the week ahead, including the debut of Tony, a biopic that follows (my hero, my anti-hero) Anthony Bourdain as he begins his culinary career. Also looking forward to the first episode of Hulu’s The Shards, an adaptation of Bret Easton Ellis’s novel, set at an elite L.A. (why am I increasingly obsessed with the City of Angels) prep school in 1981.

Now, enjoy Brunch!

— New Crist ad —

St. Petersburg mayoral candidate Charlie Crist is out with a new ad, “Shine,” spotlighting how he’ll improve affordability for residents. The ad notes high property tax rates in St. Pete and offers a plan for relief through millage rate reductions.

— Higher than the neighbors: At 6.4525 mils, St. Pete’s property tax rate is higher than neighboring Clearwater and Largo, and even Tampa. But Crist vows in the ad to offer relief.

— Statistic relief isn’t real relief: Not included in the ad is information Crist previously shared that millage rate reductions over the past four years have amounted to less than 5% property tax relief for homeowners, reductions that barely pace inflation. Crist, in the latest ad, vows to do better.

— ‘Let St. Pete Shine’: The 30-second spot features Crist narrating, “living here has gotten way too expensive.” He says housing prices “are out of control” and that high property taxes in the city are “driving prices up and our neighbors out.”

Crist ends the ad with optimism. “As Governor, I cut property taxes and made government run better. As your Mayor, I’ll do it again.”

Watch the ad here.

— Blue wave brewing? —

Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik predicts a blue-wave election in November, arguing historical trends point toward one of the largest Democratic victories in the past 32 years.

— Approval undertow: Donald Trump’s job approval sits at 39%, with net approval underwater on immigration, trade, the economy and inflation, the last of which sits at -41.6%. Sixty-one percent of Americans describe themselves as pessimistic about the economy now and in the future.

— Riding the momentum: Sosnik points to Democrats outperforming their 2024 results by 13 points on average in 2025, flipping the Virginia governorship and Legislature, and casting more than 16 million Primary votes so far in 2026 compared with Republicans’ 12.4 million.

— Counting seats: Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to flip both chambers, with competitive Senate races in states including Georgia, Michigan, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.

— Money talks: Republicans hold a massive financial edge, with more than $1 billion in cash on hand across party committees compared with Democrats’ roughly $329 million, a gap Sosnik says a recent Supreme Court ruling on party spending will widen further.

— Looking ahead: Sosnik cautions that in the two biggest wave years of the past half-century — 1994 and 2010 — the winning Midterm party went on to lose the White House two years later.

— Residency reckoning —

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is now claiming he established Florida residency in 2018, a year earlier than his own Senate bio and voter registration records indicate.

— The discrepancy: Collins first registered to vote in Florida in July 2019, according to Hillsborough County records, and his Senate bio states he moved to the state that year.

— His explanation: Collins said he rented a home in Pasco County in 2018 while going through a lengthy military medical evaluation process ahead of his Army retirement.

— Why it matters: The Florida Constitution requires the Governor and Lieutenant Governor to have lived in the state for seven years prior to election.

— The irony: Collins had separately sued to challenge rival candidate James Fishback’s residency, though a Leon County Judge ruled Fishback should remain on the ballot.

— Reform-minded —

GOP gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds told supporters he’s changing property taxes no matter what happens with Amendment 3 on the November ballot.

— ‘Full and complete’: That’s how sweeping the Naples Republican says “reform” will be. “We want to make sure that seniors on fixed income are not being taxed out of our state, and we want to make sure that young families and working families have the opportunity to build the Florida dream for themselves here in Florida.”

— He backs it, but: Donalds previously has expressed concerns about the constitutional amendment, saying local governments could hike special assessments and non-ad valorem taxes to compensate. He also laments the lack of a funding formula for the state’s fiscally constrained counties to backfill lost revenue.

— Uphill climb: When voters are aware of the impacts, they don’t support the measure enough to pass it. A University of North Florida poll shows 45% support, though 68% of Republicans still back the ballot measure.

— Fiscal imbalance —

The money race continues to go Donalds’ way in the battle to replace Ron DeSantis this Fall.

— Big bucks: Between his campaign account and his political committee, the Trump-endorsed candidate has nearly $62 million left to spend after a $500,000+ week. Keep in mind he’s been all over television this month, both with ads and earned media.

— No competition: Collins has less than $1 million on hand, even with state matching funds. Former House Speaker Paul Renner is under the $750,000 threshold. Fishback has less than $30,000. And presumptive Democratic nominee David Jolly has less than $3.5 million.

— Poll position: A Quantus Insights survey of the race released Friday shows Donalds at 50%, with Collins at 16%, Fishback at 12%, and Renner at 4%.

— First in Brunch: Chamber backs Moody —

The Florida Chamber of Commerce is backing incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody’s bid to be elected this year.

— So many reasons why: Florida Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Mark Wilson says Moody “led from the front on cutting taxes, reducing burdensome regulations, and creating the kind of economic environment where Florida’s local businesses can thrive.” He expects the Plant City Republican to “continue protecting Floridians against federal overreach in the United States Senate while advancing policies to further economic opportunity for all Floridians.”

— Honored to accept: Moody says the “Chamber represents the businesses, job creators, and entrepreneurs who make Florida the envy of the nation — the men and women who wake up every day to chase the American Dream and build something extraordinary for their families and communities.” She says she looks forward “to continuing our partnership to lower costs, create more high-paying jobs, and make sure Washington never gets in the way of Florida’s economic success.”

— Message discipline: Moody was already the pro-business candidate and an almost certain GOP nominee. Whether she faces Alex Vindman or Angie Nixon in November, expect her, like most Republicans, to argue that Democrats seek to end free-market capitalism as we know it.

— Fit to be tied —

While Vindman won’t debate Nixon ahead of the Primary, his wife Rachel Vindman started a debate of her own online about the Jacksonville legislator’s clothes.

— Sartorial slam: In a post to social media, Rachel Vindman said if a candidate’s “campaign events with less than 20 people devolve into … personal attacks,” then that candidate is a “shitty human.” She said the candidate was “checking her page,” then urged her to “buy professional clothes.” She then walked back the post.

— Goodwill ambassador: Nixon responded with a video spotlighting her clothes, which she said were all from the thrift store. There is one location on Jacksonville’s Westside in her District, where they could have come from.

— So much for unity: The ‘vote blue, no matter who’ advice may not apply here, with the Primary campaign revealing demographic divides in the party that haven’t been helped by Alex Vindman, who holds a vast financial advantage but is new to the state, not debating someone well-known after six years in the Legislature.

— Shot schism —

Attorney General James Uthmeier’s trip through the Communion line today may be a bit more complicated than usual, given his stance on Catholic schools’ vaccine requirements.

— Jab: Uthmeier told the state’s Florida Conference of Catholic Bishops on Friday that the lack of “religious exemptions as prescribed by state law … is troubling and may disqualify them from state scholarships and vouchers.” The four-page letter invoked Florida Statutes 1003.22(3), and its assertion of parental objections on religious grounds. Uthmeier also invoked Pope Leo XIV’s defense of the “inviolable … universal … inalienable” nature of human rights, before acknowledging on page three of his communication the “remote” connection between vaccines and abortion.

— Doctor’s orders: Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo affirmed the AG’s read and critique of the Church: “It’s ironic that a Florida organization that should support people’s relationship with God doesn’t respect the sovereignty of those same people and their ability to define that relationship for themselves. Denial of religious exemptions is all control-based doctrine, no spirituality.”

— Bishops’ backtalk: While the church leaders are taking their time responding to the letter, spokesperson Michele Taylor said: “Florida’s Catholic schools are operating in accord with the law and Church teaching.”

— Stakes are high: Revenue that the church relies on is at stake if they don’t bend their knee to the AG, via the potential forfeiture of the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship, the Family Empowerment Scholarship for Educational Options (FES-EO) and the Family Empowerment Scholarship for Students with Unique Abilities (FES-UA). The first two offer an $8,000-a-year taxpayer stipend. The latter can be up to $36,000 a year. Of the nearly 95,000 students in Catholic schools last year, the vast majority are on scholarship.

— Boots and ballots —

The Republican Party of Florida is kicking off the Republican National Convention with a Dallas party for the Florida delegation.

— Save the date: The event runs Tuesday, Sept. 8, from 8:30-11 p.m. at House of Blues in Dallas.

— Dress the part: Western chic attire is encouraged, with live music, lite bites and ice-cold beverages on offer.

— Cost of admission: Tickets run $250 per person, though they’re free for RPOF delegates, alternate delegates and guests already attending the convention.

— Fine print: RSVPs are due by Monday, Sept. 7, with the event sponsored by Friends of Byron Donalds PAC.

— Two-man race —

As the Republican Primary for retiring U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn’s seat nears, one campaign has published polling showing a two-man contest for the GOP nomination.

— Rogers v. Gross: A Guidant Polling and Strategy poll shows 21% of likely Primary voters prefer former Senate counsel Austin Rogers while 17% like attorney Keith Gross. That’s a lead in the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.

— Single digits: The rest of the field sits under 10%. About 9% like state GOP Chair Evan Power, 8% Gulf County Superintendent Jim Norton, 5% veteran Luke Murphy, 2% returned Deputy Audie Rowell and 1% veteran Lee Jones.

— Potential kill shot: The poll also asserts an endorsement from Trump could seal the deal. About 22% say getting that word would make them support Trump’s choice while only 11% say it would make them less likely to do so.

— Room for change: But about 38% of voters remain undecided, a greater share than any candidate boasts, so a lot can happen before Aug. 18.

— Widening the gap —

U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz is extending his Democratic Primary lead over challenger Oliver Larkin in Florida’s 25th Congressional District, according to new Beacon Insights polling.

— By the numbers: Moskowitz leads 55.6% to 19.9%, a 35.7-point spread that’s grown from a 32.3-point edge in June.

— Mail-in momentum: Among voters who’ve already cast mail ballots, Moskowitz leads 75.3% to 19.3%, a 56-point advantage.

— Name recognition gap: Moskowitz holds a net favorability of plus-45.7 points, while 59% of voters say they have no opinion of Larkin or haven’t heard of him.

— The backdrop: Larkin, a former union organizer backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, has hammered Moskowitz over his record as DeSantis’ Emergency Management Director and his vote for the Laken Riley Act.

— GOP rooting interest: Republicans have made clear they’d rather face Larkin, believing a Democratic Socialist nominee would put the seat within reach in a District Trump carried by 9 points in 2024.

— A silly hit —

The race between House colleagues Fentrice Driskell and Michele Rayner — both Democrats — has gone negative, with a political committee tied to a data center company mailing an attack on Rayner as a “real Republican.” The two face off Aug. 18 in the open Democratic Primary to replace outgoing Sen. Darryl Rouson in Senate District 16.

— ‘Basically, just a right-wing Republican’: The mailer claims Rayner was once a registered Republican and has taken money from donors who gave “over $1 million to Trump and MAGA Republicans.” A review of her political committee, Florida Always and Forever Ours (cheekily, FAFO), shows some GOP-tied donations — but far more from Democratic-leaning groups such as unions. Driskell has taken GOP-tied money, too.

— Driskell’s data center connection: Driskell voted “yes” this year on Senate Bill 484, a data center bill critics said was watered down after lawmakers stripped a ban on government nondisclosure agreements, a repeal of data center tax incentives and a five-mile buffer from homes and schools. Rayner voted “no.”

Tying Primary Democrats to Republicans is nothing new. Critics of Crist are making similar accusations in his bid for St. Petersburg Mayor, and former City Council member Darden Rice’s 2021 attempt to tie the incumbent Mayor to Trump helped sink her campaign. Worth noting: both Driskell and Rayner have backing from tried-and-true Democrats, including some further left on the spectrum.

— Brunching out —

Sunny Mornings Cafe is a welcome new addition, where you can sample Salvadoran and Mexican fare or a classic pancake breakfast.

— Backstory: Sisters Delmy and Francesca Chinchilla, originally from El Salvador, opened Sunny Mornings in April, in the former home of the vegetarian restaurant, Sweet Pea Cafe.

— Setting: The cafe is a simple setting with inside seating and a counter that overlooks the large patio with picnic tables and plants. Our young server helped with recommendations, and the meal was well-paced.

— The menu: Sunny Mornings offers such an extensive menu that it’s tough to make a decision. Dishes include chilaquiles (fried corn tortilla chips), huevos rancheros, omelets, burritos, sandwiches, quesadillas, bowls, pork chops and French toast.

— We decided on the Salvadoran platter, a generous, hearty meal with two eggs any style, refried beans, fried plantains, blocks of cheese, chorizo, sliced avocado and your choice of toast or tortilla.

— The vegetable torta (sandwich) is flavorful, the vegetables still crisp. Mozzarella is grilled first, which complements the array of avocado and sautéed mushrooms, bell peppers, grilled onions, spinach and onions. We also loved the side of French fries, which arrived hot and crisp.

— We couldn’t leave without trying pupusas, the traditional Salvadoran street snack. The tortillas are filled with items like beans and cheese, our choice, served with a zingy cabbage slaw.

Deets: We had all this food and a cup of coffee, with a 20% tip for $38.21. Sunny Morning is at 832 W. Tharpe St.; (850) 597-5767. Hours: Open from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m Sunday to Thursday, 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Friday and 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday. sunnymorningscafefl.com.