Alex Vindman says he’s in a ‘margin of error’ race with Ashley Moody, dismisses ‘outlier’ polls

Votes won’t be counted in the Democratic Primary for the U.S. Senate until the night of Aug. 18, yet Lt. Col. Alex Vindman is presenting himself as the de facto nominee to face Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody.

Though six of the last eight polls of the hypothetical Vindman-Moody contest show the Plant City Republican and former Attorney General up by between 7 and 10 points, Vindman is telling MS NOW viewers that the race is essentially even.

“All right, it’s a margin of error race. Any of the credible polls, you know, we’ve got some outlier polls, feel-good polls for the Republicans. The real credible polls show this is a margin of error race. Either I’m down 3, even, or up 2. That is a fantastic place to be in a place like Florida. Florida is absolutely in play, specifically because this is an environment where people are ripe for a change candidate.”

The only poll that shows Vindman “up 2” is from Change Research, and Vindman’s own campaign reached out this week to tell us it had been retracted by the pollster “due to methodological errors.”

That leaves seven public polls that show Moody ahead, with six of them showing Moody up by seven or more. More than half of them are from institutions of higher learning.

Two of the surveys were conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, one by Stetson University, and one by Emerson College.

The latest UNF poll is perhaps the most unflattering for Vindman, who moved to Florida a few years back after his military career ended.

It showed him 10 points behind Moody, as compared to a 7-point deficit he had in March. The newest survey also showed Moody with 50% support, a traditionally important data point in polling.

Black voters, a key demographic for the Democratic Party in Florida, are more committed to Angie Nixon than to Vindman in this survey. If Nixon is the Democratic nominee, she wins the group 78% to 8%. If the pick is Vindman, he would also take Black voters, but by a smaller margin: 73% to 10%.

Women also seem to prefer Nixon to Vindman. Moody actually carries female voters 47% to 44% against Vindman, a recent arrival to the state after his military career. Nixon splits the group with Moody, with each candidate taking 46% in the poll.

Vindman has declined to debate Nixon, saying he’s “laser-focused” on the General Election and the “struggle” to appeal to independents.

Nixon points to the UNF poll as proof that her campaign has “what it takes to win,” spotlighting her performance with Black voters and women, which she says “are the overall base of the Democratic Party.”

“Let’s shock the nation. Let’s shock the state. Let’s stick it to the status quo,” she said in a video released Thursday.