Politics
Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 7.21.26
Good Tuesday morning.
Breaking late Monday — “Tropical depression churning just off shore of Panhandle“ via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — A tropical depression about 100 miles south of Panama City is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha by Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center said in its Monday evening update. The system is crawling west-northwest at 3 mph and should approach Southeast Louisiana in two to three days, meaning it likely won’t make landfall in Florida. But the Panhandle is already feeling it: downpours stretched from the Big Bend to the Alabama line Monday afternoon, open-Gulf seas climbed to roughly 9 feet, and NWS Tallahassee flagged a possible tornado threat in the coastal Big Bend along with gusty bands, heavy rain and building surf and rip current risks through the week. Tropical storm warnings run from the Panhandle to Texas.
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Now we turn the first part of Sunburn over to our friend Steve Vancore:
Every cycle produces a handful of publicly released polls worth trusting and a landfill of polls worth the salt shaker. The new University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) survey of 848 likely Florida Midterm voters belongs firmly in the first pile.
This is a shop that shows its work, with a full methodology, transparent weighting, no self-identification (they use actual voter history from the voter file and confirm respondents!), and a well-balanced sample (well, except party, but we will address that further on).
As for the methodology and transparency, this is where PORL earns its keep: a mixed-mode design (phone and text-to-web), stratification across 18 geographic strata, and a two-step raking weight on education and then party, age, race, sex and geography, benchmarked to the actual 2022 electorate.
So, when this pollster finds Byron Donalds leading David Jolly 46%-41% in the Governor’s race, and Ashley Moody leading both potential Democratic Senate opponents by high single digits to low double digits (10 over Alex Vindman, 8 over Angie Nixon), save the salt for your morning eggs.
Of course, nothing about these numbers should shock anyone who’s been watching Florida drift red over the past three cycles or has reviewed credible polls, but the margins are notably tighter than 2022 or 2024 — which tracks with the read from PORL faculty director Sean Freeder that the party in the White House usually suffers in Midterms. No salt needed here; these are plausible, internally consistent numbers from a poll built the right way.
A half-grain: The raw sample skews red before weighting.
I know! I know! Post-sampling weighting can widen your margin of error, and this poll needed a good dose of that, as the original sample had a +20 GOP model. Even GOP-leaning consultants don’t see that as a realistic turnout balance; it’s more likely closer to +12. For this writer, post-call weighting is not optimal, but it doesn’t harm the findings or impact the analysis, so I’ll offer just a half-grain here.
Bottom line: solid shop, solid numbers, tight-but-plausible horse races, and one honest methodological note-to-self about how much lifting the party weight is doing on the raw sample.
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Donalds remains the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican nomination for Governor, according to a new Fabrizio Lee poll, the Southwest Florida Congressman is at 53% support — essentially unchanged from the 54% he posted in the firm’s April survey — with the rest of the pack largely fighting over scraps.
Collins is in a distant second place at 10%. The double-digit showing is the first for a Republican not named Donalds in a Fabrizio Lee poll and puts the Lt. Governor back ahead of Fishback.
Renner is still bringing up the rear with 4% of likely Republican voters in his corner.
Fabrizio Lee surveyed 400 likely Republican Primary voters from July 14-16 using a mix of live-operator telephone interviews and SMS-to-web responses. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.
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Former Gov. Charlie Crist is building his lead over in the St. Petersburg Mayor race with a coalition that includes strong support among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters alike.
A new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics finds Crist leading pack with 31% support in the six-way race. Incumbent Mayor Ken Welch sits 14 points back at 17% with St. Petersburg City Council Member Brandi Gabbard being the only other candidate to crack double digits. More than a quarter said they were undecided.
The top three pull in a larger share when leaners are folded in, with Crist at 35% while the gap between Welch (18%) and Gabbard (12%) shrinks to 5.5 percentage points — slightly above the poll’s 5% margin of error — suggesting the race for No. 2 may not be settled.
St. Pete Polls tested the head-to-head, which showed the former Governor and Congressman’s lead stretching to 16 points, 44%-28%, with the remainder still on the fence. The head-to-head lead is double what the same pollster found in June.
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The Republican nomination in Florida’s 19th Congressional District remains up for grabs according to new polling from Action Solutions.
The survey, conducted on behalf of Ola Hawatmeh’s campaign, found Hawatmeh leading the field with 12.9% support, followed by Chris Collins at 11.8% and Jim Schwartzel at 10.2%.
The most popular pick, however, was “undecided or supporting someone else.” Given the 96-person sample — just 45 voters expressed a preference — the campaigns for former Illinois Sen. Jim Oberweis, former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf and former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn are still very much in the mix.
The poll also found Hawatmeh remains largely unknown in the district. About 77% of respondents said they were unfamiliar with her, while roughly 11% viewed her favorably and 12% unfavorably.
Action Solutions also tested campaign messaging highlighting Hawatmeh’s experience helping secure federal funding for Southwest Florida water infrastructure. Nearly half of respondents said that background would be “very important” in deciding their vote, while another 19% said it would be somewhat important. About one-third said it was not important.
The survey additionally asked voters how a hypothetical endorsement from Donald Trump would affect their vote, with the consensus being the President’s backing “would be a help to Hawatmeh’s Campaign.”
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Former Sen. Loranne Ausley has an early lead in the race for Tallahassee Mayor, with City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow not far behind.
A new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics shows Ausley leading the four-candidate field with 29% support, followed by Matlow at 24% with Daryl Parks 10-points back from the top two and Michael Foust sitting at around 3%.
Undecided ranks as the top pick for Tallahassee voters, with just over 31% of those polled saying they’ve yet to make a pick in the race to succeed John Daily, who opted not to seek a third term leading the capital city.
With less than a month to go, the survey suggests no candidate is in position to clinch 50%-plus-one needed to win the nonpartisan seat outright in August and that the contest will instead determine who gets a slot on the November ballot.
Though Ausley served in the state Senate as a Democrat, the crosstabs show she performs best among Republicans, who back her 36% to Matlow’s 7%, and among voters age 70 and older, where she posts a commanding 47% to 20% advantage.
Matlow, meanwhile, leads Ausley among Democratic voters, 33% to 28%, and among voters younger than 50. Parks’ strongest support comes from Black voters, where he receives 33%, compared with 19% for Ausley and 13% for Matlow.
St. Pete Polls surveyed 345 likely Tallahassee voters July 19-20 using automated telephone calls and peer-to-peer text messages. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.
— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —
—@AndrewTFloyd: Since Abraham Lincoln’s assassination in 1865, every President has been alive at the same time as Herbert Hoover.
Tweet, Tweet:
—@FBI: The 2026 @FIFAWorldCup was the largest sporting event in the history—and this FBI rose to the challenge in every way. With 11 U.S. host cities, 5 international host cities, 40 base camps, endless fan zones and celebrations, and 6.8 million visitors, this tournament shattered attendance record by double digits with zero major security incidents across the country.
Tweet, tweet:
Tweet, tweet:
Tweet, tweet:
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— DAYS UNTIL —
Tiger Bay Club of Central Florida hosts Orange County Mayor debate — 10; ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ premieres — 10; Optional Primary early voting begins — 13; ‘Ted Lasso’ season 4 premieres — 15; Primary Election ballot request deadline — 16; Mandatory Primary early voting begins — 18; ‘Lanterns’ premieres on HBO — 26; Primary Election Day — 28; ‘The Dog Stars,’ directed by Ridley Scott, premieres — 38; NFL regular season kicks off — 50; Republican National Midterm Convention — 50; San Francisco 49ers face the Los Angeles Rams in the first-ever NFL regular-season game in Melbourne, Australia — 51; Yankees host the Mets for the 9/11 anniversary — 52; MLB Roberto Clemente Day — 56; General Election UOCAVA ballot deadline — 60; Tampa Bay Buccaneers home opener against the Cleveland Browns — 61; General Election domestic ballot send window begins — 65; General Election domestic ballot send deadline — 72; ‘Digger,’ with Tom Cruise, directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, premieres — 73; General Election voter registration deadline — 76; ‘The Social Network’ sequel, with Jeremy Strong, Jeremy Allen White and Mikey Madison, premieres — 80; Optional General early voting begins — 90; General Election ballot request deadline — 93; Mandatory General early voting begins — 95; General Election — 105; ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ premieres — 108; ‘Wild Horse Nine’ premieres — 108; Florida Automated Vehicles Summit — 113; Joe Biden’s memoir, ‘Promise Me,’ releases — 119; ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ premieres — 122; ‘The Adventures of Cliff Booth,’ with Brad Pitt, directed by David Fincher and written by Quentin Tarantino, premieres — 127; ‘Madden’ premieres — 128; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres — 150; ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ premieres — 150; ‘Dune: Part 3,’ directed by Denis Villeneuve, premieres — 150; College Football Playoff national championship game in Las Vegas — 188; Grammys — 201; Super Bowl LXI — 208; Tampa Mayoral Election — 224; Oscars — 236; Jacksonville First Election — 245; Jacksonville General Election — 301; ‘Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse’ premieres — 319; ‘Bluey the Movie’ premieres — 381; ‘Miami Vice’ reboot premieres — 381; ‘The Batman Part II’ premieres — 437; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres — 514; College Football Playoff national championship game in New Orleans — 552; Oscars — 593; ‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ premieres — 675; ‘Incredibles 3’ premieres — 696; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 724; 2028 U.S. Presidential Election — 840; College Football Playoff national championship game in Tampa — 916; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres — 1,240; College Football Playoff national championship game in Miami — 1,280; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres — 1,971.
— TOP STORY —
“Byron Donalds challenges David Jolly to 3 Governor debates” via Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO — Donalds posted his challenge over a video on social media, saying, “The only debate that truly matters is the one against radical Democrats.” Donalds, who was endorsed by President Trump last year, said voters would be able to contrast their visions for the state in a debate.
He accused Jolly — a former one-term Republican House member — of supporting “high taxes, bloated government, boys in girls’ sports and taking that authority away from parents and giving it to bureaucrats.”
Jolly was noncommittal about the possibility of debating Donalds, saying in a text to POLITICO, “Let him get through his Primary and we’ll talk.”
—“Business groups line up behind Donalds’ governor bid” via Jim Saunders of State Affairs
— 2026 —
“Jolly, 4 other statewide candidates get nearly $2.5M in Florida public money” via Gary Fineout of POLITICO — Florida turned over $2.46 million to five statewide candidates who are accepting money under the state’s public campaign finance program. This marks the first release of money this cycle under the program, which has been sharply criticized by many Republicans who have tried unsuccessfully to eliminate it. Jolly … got the largest infusion of cash with nearly $1.3 million, followed by more than $662,000 to Donalds and more than $118,000 to Collins. The public money will be a definite boost for Jolly since he has only raised about $4 million for his main campaign account and just under $4 million for his political committee.
“Florida Democrats slam ‘scam’ property tax amendment as ‘just plain bad for Florida’” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — The Florida Democratic Party (FDP) is formally opposing Amendment 3, the homestead-exemption expansion the Legislature placed on November’s ballot — a measure even some of its Republican supporters are second-guessing. “Amendment 3 is bad for our cities and towns, bad for our rural counties, and just plain bad for Florida,” FDP Chair Nikki Fried said. Fried said the proposal to increase homestead exemptions “would hurt our local communities and cut local services while giving huge tax breaks to billionaires and corporations.” “This is a scam that would either raise other taxes on working families or rob their communities of essential services like public hospitals, EMTs, fire rescue, disaster preparedness, road maintenance, children services, libraries, and parks,” she added.
“Pete Buttigieg tells Florida Democrats campaigns should use AI in ‘smart but ethical ways’” via Gabrielle Russon for FloridAI — Buttigieg dived into how effective political campaigns should be using artificial intelligence in “smart but ethical ways” to connect with voters at the Florida Democratic Party’s Leadership Blue conference in Disney World. Buttigieg’s No. 1 rule? Don’t use AI to lie. “I think that AI can be and has been used to deceive people. We saw that in images from the White House manipulating photos to try to make somebody look worse. That is not a good direction for how technology and campaigns should go,” said Buttigieg, the former U.S. Secretary of Transportation under President Joe Biden.
— MORE ELECTIONS —
“Down 30, under $300K, and 30 days out: Michael Kirwan is underwater in CD 4” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — Kirwan is telling Northeast Florida that the incumbent is in over his head. Thirty points down, under $300,000, and 30 days out, Kirwan is the one underwater. Start with the new Tyson Group survey of Florida’s 4th Congressional District, which put L.J. Holloway at 41%, Kirwan at 11% and Brit Robinson at 4% among likely Primary voters. Kirwan is down 30. Then there’s the money, which the poll coverage didn’t capture. Kirwan is sitting on less than $300,000 with 30 days to go — and less than $250,000 of it is even eligible to spend in the Primary, because nearly $50,000 can only be spent in a General Election.
“Cory Mills challenger appeals ruling keeping congressman on ballot” via Gray Rohrer of The News Service of Florida — A Republican challenging U.S. Rep. Mills in a primary is appealing a Leon Circuit Court ruling denying his attempt to knock the incumbent off the ballot. Michael Johnson’s attorney, Anthony Sabatini, filed notice he would appeal the decision from Judge J. Lee Marsh to dismiss his suit. The original lawsuit contended Mills didn’t properly take and notarize his candidate oath as part of the required paperwork for qualifying for the ballot. But Marsh found Johnson couldn’t sue under the state law requiring a candidate oath because it doesn’t give him an avenue to push him from the ballot. The law “does not provide Plaintiff with a cause of action to seek the disqualification of another candidate based upon that candidate’s satisfaction of the qualifications process,” Marsh wrote. The appeal comes as voters are returning mail ballots. The original lawsuit was filed June 19, one week after the qualifying period for candidates ended, but a hearing didn’t take place until Friday.
Mike Chitwood endorses Ryan Elijah in CD 7 — Volusia County Sheriff Chitwood is backing Elijah in the Republican Primary for Florida’s 7th Congressional District. “For many years, Ryan Elijah has stood strongly with our local law enforcement officers, earning their trust and respect. I am proud to offer him my full endorsement to represent our community in Washington. Ryan is a trusted leader who knows this area well and will fight tirelessly for our families and the men and women in law enforcement who protect them. His steady leadership is exactly what our district needs,” Chitwood said. Elijah is challenging embattled incumbent U.S. Rep. Cory Mills in the Primary for the Central Florida seat, which is also a top target for Democrats this cycle.
Watch Chitwood’s endorsement video here:
—”Tom Wright backs Elijah over Mills in CD 7 primary” via Fabrizio Gowdy of Florida Politics
“Jim Jordan becomes latest prominent conservative to back ‘problem solver’ Joe Strada in CD 11” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — Strada has landed the endorsement of House Freedom Caucus co-founder Jordan, adding another prominent conservative to his corner in the race to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Dan Webster in Florida’s 11th Congressional District. Jordan, an Ohio Republican, cast Strada’s private-sector success as evidence he can deliver results in Washington. “Joe Strada has built the American Dream for countless families in Florida and across this great nation,” Jordan said. “He’s tackled the skilled worker shortage by building his own training program and graduating students directly into the workforce. Now, more than ever, we need leaders like Joe Strada in Congress, because he is a problem solver who will stand up for our shared Conservative values and with President Trump.”
Adam Cervera backs Michael Carbonara for CD 22 — Carbonara’s bid for Florida’s 22nd Congressional District has picked up an endorsement from Broward County School Board Member Cervera. “Broward families deserve leaders in Washington who respect parents and put students first,” said Cervera. “Michael Carbonara built businesses from the ground up, is raising his family in our community, and believes decisions about children belong with their parents. He will fight for safe schools, quality education, and an affordable South Florida. I am proud to endorse him.” Carbonara is running in a crowded Primary for the seat, which following redistricting runs nearly coast to coast from Marco Island in Southwest Florida to western portions of Palm Beach and Broward counties. It has no incumbent after Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz opted to instead run in the nearby Florida’s 20th Congressional District.
—“Who’s raising the most money? Search congressional fundraising data for South Florida candidates” via David Schutz of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
— EVEN MORE ELECTIONS —
Rick Kriseman backs Fentrice Driskell — Former St. Petersburg Mayor Kriseman is endorsing Driskell, the House Democratic Leader, in her bid for Senate District 16. Kriseman said the current legislative climate makes it critical to back a candidate who can move St. Petersburg, Tampa, and the broader Tampa Bay area forward. “Having known Fentrice Driskell for many years, I am convinced that she would be the most impactful in the position as our Senator. It is for that reason that I am proud to endorse and support Fentrice Driskell for Senator,” Kriseman said. Driskell also holds the backing of every Democratic Senator to previously hold the seat — Arthenia L. Joyner, Les Miller, and James Hargrett.
Ashley Gantt touts wave of local endorsements — Rep. Gantt’s campaign is announcing a fleet of endorsements from mayors and commissioners across Senate District 34 who are joining Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava in backing her campaign. The announcement listed North Miami Mayor Alix Desulme, Miami Gardens Mayor Rodney Harris, Miami Gardens Vice Mayor Robert L. Stephens III, Mayor of North Bay Village Rachel Streitfeld, Opa-locka Mayor John H. Taylor Jr., and Miami Gardens Councilwoman Katrina Wilson. “The strongest results come when state and local leaders work together, and I’ve always believed in being a responsive, collaborative partner for our cities. In the Florida Senate, I’ll continue working hand in hand with our local governments to expand opportunity, strengthen our neighborhoods, and ensure South Florida gets the resources and representation it deserves,” Gantt said.
Save the date:
— STATEWIDE —
—@Fineout: Inbox: @GovRonDeSantis is in the United Kingdom today for the 2026 Farnborough International Airshow. Both this event and the Paris Air Show have been routinely visited by the last two govern
“DeSantis admin offers court proof that ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ is really closed” via Kylie Williams of POLITICO — DeSantis’ administration filed evidence that the immigration detention center in the Florida Everglades known as “Alligator Alcatraz” is closed, after a federal Judge required proof that the facility had really shut down. The state offered two declarations, from state employees “intimately familiar” with the status of the facility, who said Alligator Alcatraz no longer exists. One of those testimonies included photographs of the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport, which showed a nearly empty airstrip absent of the hastily constructed detention center that was used to hold thousands of people. “As is readily apparent from the images, the Facility no longer exists, and there are no detainees on site,” wrote Edward Vincent, a supervisor with the Florida Department of Law Enforcement.
“Huge jump in new unemployment claims” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — After about a month of falling first-time unemployment claims, Florida saw a wild spike in filings for the week ending July 11. The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) figures show there were 7,133 first-time jobless claims in the Sunshine State in the second week of July. That figure is up by 2,598 over the 4,535 claims for the week ending July 4. While first-time claims appear to be rising in July, the general unemployment rate for June dropped in Florida. FloridaCommerce, the state’s business development bureau, released the unemployment rate for June on Friday, showing it fell to 4.7%, down from 4.8% in May. While the latest unemployment rate is positive for Florida, the 4.7% state figure is still higher than the national unemployment rate.
— D.C. MATTERS —
“Trump loomed over the World Cup, up until the awkward trophy ceremony” via Dan Merica, Rick Maese and Cat Zakrzewski of The Washington Post — Trump’s World Cup ended with something he likely loved: being showered in gold. Trump appeared to shake off FIFA President Gianni Infantino as he lingered onstage after presenting Spain their second World Cup trophy ever. Trump was loudly booed as he entered the field after the match, waving to people as he made his way to the stage. Trump had long viewed the tournament as one of the signature events of his term: a chance to showcase his version of the United States to the world, in the middle of a summer that also included America’s 250th anniversary celebrations. Trump appeared to enjoy interacting with the players as he presented them each with medals. “We have to do this again, and we have to do it while I’m around,” Trump said.
“Air Force One to be ‘maxed out’ following questions about security, Trump says” via Sammy Westfall of The Washington Post — Trump said Sunday that the new Qatari-gifted Air Force One will be sent to be “maxed out” in about a month, amid questions about the jet’s security technology. The FBI opened an investigation of the New York Times, issuing subpoenas to several reporters, after the outlet published reporting citing sources who said the aircraft lacked some of the defensive countermeasures previous planes had, including advanced antimissile capabilities. The Qatari jet is meant to serve as a “bridge” between the older, roughly 35-year-old Air Force One planes and two new Boeing 747s that the company is retrofitting for $3.9 billion. “It has a lot of capability, but as I understand it, in about a month or so, they’re going to send it to have it be maxed out,” he said.
“Trump adds Thomas Jefferson statue to overhaul of White House grounds” via Dan Diamond and Olivia George of The Washington Post — Trump installed a statue of Jefferson in the Rose Garden last week. The bronze, life-size statue depicts the nation’s third president seated with a draft of the Declaration of Independence. The piece brings to five the number of sculptures Trump has installed in the Rose Garden, joining George Washington, Benjamin Franklin and Alexander Hamilton, as well as a sculpture called “Freedom’s Charge,” which honors Revolutionary War soldiers. The White House has not previously disclosed where the statues originated, saying only that they were on loan from “generous private American patriots.” It was sculpted by George Lundeen, who said he received a congratulatory call from Trump this month. “When you’re a farm boy from the middle of Nebraska, it’s kind of neat to get a call from the president,” said Lundeen.
“As Jewish Republicans sour on JD Vance, many are rallying behind Marco Rubio for 2028” via Joseph Strauss of JTA — It’s no secret that Vance has lost the confidence of many Jewish Republicans, who have taken issue with the Vice President’s reprimanding of Israeli officials, indulgence of anti-Israel conspiracy theories and silence on Tucker Carlson, the prominent pundit who has turned against Israel. But Vance is still thought by many to be Trump’s likeliest successor at the top of the party’s ticket in 2028, leaving the GOP’s Jewish supporters with the question of whom to back when Trump’s second term ends. “The overwhelming majority of American Jewish MAGA voters, donors, and policymakers are enthusiastically supporting a Marco Rubio presidential run,” Shabbos Kestenbaum told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. “I look forward to voting for him as well.”
“DCCC targets Anna Paulina Luna over WSJ report on political betting” via Jesse Mendoza of Florida Politics — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is attacking U.S. Rep. Luna following a report that federal regulators are investigating allegations involving advance knowledge of Trump’s 2024 running-mate selection. The Journal reported that Luna told associates during Summer 2024 that she knew Trump would select JD Vance as Vice President. Luna passed the information to conservative influencer Rogan O’Handley so he could place a winning wager on the prediction market Polymarket. The situation is a part of a larger Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation into prediction market betting among Washington insiders, not Luna specifically. “I am honored the WSJ thinks I am telepathic but unfortunately I am not,” Luna said, adding that she would continue advocating against insider trading.
— LOCAL: S. FL —
“Eileen Higgins takes Commission Chair for herself, pushes out Christine King” via Tess Riski of Miami Herald — Miami Mayor Eileen Higgins has designated herself as Chair of the Miami City Commission, effectively removing longtime Chairwoman King from the position. “As we move into this next chapter, my focus remains squarely on the people of Miami,” Higgins said in a memo. “Every decision made from this chair will be guided by a simple question: does it make life better, easier, and fairer for the residents we serve?” King had been Chair since 2021, when former Mayor Francis Suarez named her Chair, making her the first woman to hold the position in the city. Then in December, shortly after Higgins was sworn in as the city’s first woman Mayor, Higgins reappointed King to the role.
“The end of Haitian TPS will create a humanitarian storm in South Florida” via Miriam Singer of the Tampa Bay Times — While hurricane season has been kind to us so far, we are about to be impacted by a “major hurricane” in the form of a humanitarian and healthcare crisis. The Supreme Court’s decision allowing termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian nationals has created immediate uncertainty for tens of thousands of hardworking residents who have built their lives here while caring for some of our most vulnerable seniors and frail residents of all ages. Unless Congress acts quickly, Haitians with TPS status will lose the ability to keep working in jobs our community desperately needs them to fill — and for organizations like Jewish Community Services of South Florida (JCS) and numerous others, the consequences are immediate, personal and heartbreaking.
— LOCAL: C. FL —
“Low-income apartments in Orange County bring relief to struggling renters” via Michael Cuglietta of the Orlando Sentinel — The new complex off Orange Blossom Trail offers rent as low as $400 a month for qualified residents but also bright clean apartments with plenty of amenities. It is part of the county’s 10-year plan to create more affordable housing. The need for such units is acute. The average monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Central Florida is now $1,600, according to Apartments.com, far more than many can afford. The median wage in the Orlando metro area is $48,000, and residents earning that should pay no more than $1,200 a month for housing, according to the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse at the University of Florida’s Shimberg Center for Housing Studies.
“Ex-Titusville police chief John Lau cited in June vehicle crash, FHP says” via J.D. Gallop of Florida Today — Lau, who was fired June 24, was not injured in the late-night crash on the winding road but was taken to a hospital. He also refused to take a drug and alcohol test as mandated by city policy. A partially full bottle of vodka was found in the wreckage as Titusville officers arrived at the site, located along Barna Avenue. The traffic crash, along with Lau’s subsequent firing for failing to follow city policy regarding submitting to a drug test coupled with the ensuing investigation, drew comments from residents and city councilmembers during a July 14 meeting. Some residents questioned why criminal charges were not filed in the case.
“Developer asks to remove Pappy’s Patch land from Seminole’s rural boundary” via Martin E. Comas of the Orlando Sentinel — Developer Chris Dorworth has submitted a new request with the county under his group Strawberry Lane LLC to carve out the 67-acre site from the protected area to allow him to move forward with a community of up to 136 single-family homes. Dorworth acknowledges he faces an uphill battle with his latest proposal. “The applicant files this petition with the candid recognition that the board … .has rendered the practical likelihood of approval functionally zero,” Dorworth said in his application. Four out of five County Commissioners would have to agree to remove the property out of the rural boundary, an area that covers nearly one third of Seminole’s east side where development is restricted to one home per five acres or one home per 10 acres.
— LOCAL: TB —
“TSA security to be privatized at Tampa International Airport under new federal program” via Alexandra Skores and Tami Luhby of CNN — In a statement to CNN on Monday, Tampa International Airport said it “opted in” to the TSA Gold+ program, a new public/private partnership screening program. TSA will still have regulatory oversight of the airport’s screening operations, and the checkpoints will have to follow TSA rules, but the employees will be hired and security equipment managed by a company instead of the federal government. Participation in the new program is voluntary and requires airports to apply. The change is targeted for May 31, 2027, a TSA employee in Tampa said they were told during a town hall Monday led by Adam Stahl, acting TSA deputy administrator.
“Lakeland is latest Bay area city to consider data center moratorium” via Spectrum Bay News 9 — Members of the Lakeland City Commission heard from residents on Monday about a proposed data center moratorium. If the ordinance passes next month, Lakeland would be the latest local city to ban development for a year. The proposed ordinance would pause approvals for data centers of all sizes. Monday’s meeting followed weeks of pushback after a data center was proposed in Lakeland called Project Swan. It is a planned 600,000-square-foot data center that would use 100 megawatts of power. City leaders have questioned whether Lakeland’s electric grid could support something that big.
— LOCAL: N. FL —
“Mexican man killed by truck as he ran from ICE in St. Augustine identified as tourist” via Claire Healy and Syra Ortiz Blanes of the Miami Herald — The Mexican man who officials say was killed by a truck last week in St. Augustine while running from immigration officers was identified by a farmworkers’ advocacy group as a father of two on vacation with a valid tourist visa. Juan Jairo Coronilla Duran, 28, was visiting from his hometown of San Luis de La Paz, a small city in the central state of Guanajuato. Officials have yet to confirm his identity.
“Donna Deegan to host town hall series for community input on $2.03B proposed budget” via Jonathan Lundy of News4Jax — Deegan on Monday presented a proposed $2.03 billion budget and announced a citywide series of budget town halls so residents can review priorities and ask questions. “Jacksonville is a city on the rise, and our proposed budget continues that momentum,” Deegan said. “Every spending decision we make is geared to deliver a positive return for our citizens and make Jacksonville more affordable.” The town hall schedule begins 6 p.m. Aug. 5 at Jean Ribault High School followed by Aug. 13 at Julia Landon College Preparatory & Leadership Development School, also at 6 p.m. The Mayor’s office says the town halls are intended to “continue the conversation with citizens” about the budget and how it will fund public safety, infrastructure, health and housing programs.
“Laura Dotson can’t have it both ways on beach driving” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics — Dotson says she is “100%” for beach driving. That is not what she told Nassau County voters a few weeks ago. In audio recorded at a candidate appearance in Callahan, Dotson said the county should “put it back to where it was” so that vehicles are “not in front of anyone’s home.” Moving them back would re-close close to a mile of beach that the county reopened to drivers last year, after acknowledging in a legal settlement that the old “No Motor Vehicle” markers had been posted a mile north of the line drawn under state law for roughly 21 years. Then, apparently, the mood of the district caught up with her.
“Man sentenced in shooting that outraged Jacksonville LGBTQ community” via Scott Butler of The Florida Times-Union — A Jacksonville man who shot and partially paralyzed his neighbor in what LGBTQ+ members called a hate crime has been sentenced to seven years in prison. Tyler Getchell, 30, pleaded guilty May 4 to a reduced charge of attempted manslaughter after initially being charged with attempted murder of 24-year-old Kyle McFarlane, court records show. His attorneys filed a 119-page memorandum requesting a downward departure for his sentence, citing he had no prior felony convictions, served in the Navy five years, showed remorse and remained at the scene. McFarlane posted on his Facebook that Getchell will see more time if he doesn’t compensate his medical bills and care. The sentence also included additional measures upon release such as mental health follow-up and no contact with the victim or victim’s family.
— LOCAL: SW. FL —
“A list nobody wants to top. Southwest Florida now leads foreclosures” via Phil Fernandez of the Fort Myers News-Press — A new midyear report Thursday from ATTOM real estate analytics found Charlotte County posted the highest foreclosure rate of any metropolitan area in the United States during the first six months of 2026, with Lee County sixth. A separate study this month, using slightly different methodology, actually rated Lee worse than Charlotte for the same time period. The ATTOM research come as Southwest Florida continues adjusting to a dramatically different housing environment than the one seen during the pandemic boom.
“Sheriff’s election opponent’s son fired from deputy post, appealing” via Tomas Rodriguez of the Fort Myers News-Press & Naples Daily News — Deputy First Class Gabriel Hollow was terminated July 8 after an internal affairs probe found him guilty of insubordination, improper conduct after officials say he falsified documents and improper conduct for careless handling or unintentional abuse of equipment. He began as a Lee County sheriff’s deputy Sept. 8, 2020. Gabriel Hollow is the son of Michael Hollow, one of Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno’s staunchest critics.
— TOP OPINION —
“Trust local elections officials over Trump and state leaders” via the Orlando Sentinel and South Florida Sun-Sentinel editorial boards — Thursday night, Trump leveled bombshell allegations against a wide array of nations, groups and people he claims are conspiring to undermine the integrity of American elections.
Many of those claims dissolved almost immediately as fact-checkers got to work. But what remained was clear: The factions doing the most to undermine federal, state and local elections are Trump himself and the hyperpartisan state leaders who rushed to redraw congressional district lines and undermine laws meant to protect the sacred principle of one person, one vote.
Most notably, a handful of states focused on redrawing congressional maps to gain partisan advantage, with GOP lawmakers scheming in Florida and Texas, and Democrats pushing through new partisan lines in California.
Some of Florida’s most respected Republicans, including U.S. Rep. Dan Webster (who has represented Central Florida for decades) protested the GOP’s nakedly aggressive new lines.
The real defenders are close to home. Floridians can be proud of the way the state’s 67 county elections supervisors have locked arms in defense of elections security and voter access — a solidarity that was on splendid display last week as elections leaders from Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia counties roundtable hosted by the News Collaborative of Central Florida.
Four are Republicans and two are Democrats. Each has a track record of putting vote integrity above partisanship.
— MORE OPINIONS —
“An evolving David Jolly on stage in Delray” via Steve Bousquet of South Florida Sun-Sentinel — Fran Eisenberg of Boynton Beach stepped to the microphone and told Jolly: “You’re on fire!” He had just delivered a long, lively talk to about 400 Palm Beach County voters. The Andre Fladell Civic Center in Delray Beach was packed with enthusiastic people, many in their 60s and 70s. He began an hour-long talk with: “I’m afraid we’re going to win this race!” In Delray, Jolly was more animated, poking fun at himself and talking about missing his two young kids back in Tampa Bay. “It’s slipping away,” Jolly said. “This is a state that’s careening toward outright corruption.” The longer Jolly talked in Delray, the louder his voice got and the angrier he sounded. The crowd ate it up.
“The data center yield: How one project can boost a community” via Julio Fuentes for the Tallahassee Democrat — What would an additional $50 million in annual tax revenue mean for your community? Could it help build a new school? Expand public safety services? Improve roads and bridges? Lower the tax burden on residents? Across the country, communities are answering those questions with revenue generated by data centers. Data centers are no longer an unfamiliar concept. We know they are the infrastructure that powers modern life. From online banking and telehealth to artificial intelligence, cloud computing and remote work, nearly every aspect of the digital world depends on data centers. The question is not whether society will need them. The question is where they will be built and who will benefit from the investment.
“Time for common sense on pesticide liability protections” via Anna Paulina Luna for the Tampa Bay Times — The fastest way to find out who Washington really serves is to threaten the corporate interests it protects. The fight over pesticide liability protections in the Farm Bill was never just about one amendment, but whether Congress would stand with American families and our right to justice, or quietly protect chemical corporations from the consequences of their products (for the right price, of course). I introduced this amendment to the Farm Bill because the provision at issue was indefensible. Pesticide manufacturers were on the verge of receiving liability protections that would have made it harder for Americans to sue them when their products cause harm. Families would have been left with weaker warning labels, fewer safeguards for drinking water, and fewer tools to hold chemical companies accountable.
— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —
— ALOE —
“TaxWatch’s Dominic Calabro wins top honor” via the Tallahassee Democrat — TaxWatch and its longtime president and CEO, Calabro, who’s now retired, have been selected to receive the Governmental Research Association’s highest honor, the Frederick P. Greenberg Lifetime Achievement Award. The award will be presented July 21 at the association’s national conference in Chicago. Calabro and the organization are the first recipients from Florida to receive the recognition. The Governmental Research Association, founded more than a century ago, is a nonpartisan and nonprofit organization of public policy researchers focused on improving government effectiveness, accountability and efficiency through independent research.
“Glamping tents are coming to Wekiwa Springs, Rainbow Springs” via Patrick Connolly of Orlando Sentinel — State park visitors who prefer the comforts of home during outdoor overnights will soon have more glamping options at two of Florida’s most beloved state parks. Wekiwa Springs State Park in Apopka and Rainbow Springs State Park in Dunnellon have both announced an eco glamping tent experience coming this Fall. Wekiwa Springs, best known for its emerald springs and tropical hammocks, will have four tents while Rainbow Springs, sought after for its swimming, tubing and waterfalls, will have five tents. The “unique accommodations” are climate-controlled and complete with power, a coffee maker, a queen-sized bed and a separate dressing area. Details are not yet available about opening dates, nightly rates or how to reserve the special sites.
Florida gas prices tick up 12 cents — Florida drivers saw a 12-cent spike in prices at the pump week-over-week, with the state average landing at $3.94 per gallon on Sunday. The midweek peak was higher, cresting at a 19-cent uplift before easing back. While Florida gas prices are higher today than AAA’s week, month and year lookbacks, they remain lower than the national average, which sat at $3.99 as of Sunday. “Geopolitical tensions can create volatility in energy markets, and that’s exactly what drivers saw last week,” AAA spokesperson Mark Jenkins said. “While prices eased slightly by the weekend, motorists are still paying significantly more than they were just a month ago. Drivers should expect prices to remain sensitive to developments overseas and fluctuations in the oil market.”
— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —
Celebrating today are Sen. Gayle Harrell and Thomas Hobbs.
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Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.