breeders cup Justify (1), with jockey Mike Smith up, crosses the finish line to win the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes horse race and the Triple Crown, Saturday, June 9, 2018, in Elmont, N.Y. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
The old saying goes, “It’s not how you start, but how you finish.” If that’s true, we have a monumental hill to climb at Let ’em Run, because our opening Saturday on July 4th at Saratoga was a complete and utter disaster. Much like the host nations bowing out early in the World Cup, we completely collapsed on the biggest stage. We missed the mark on the first four legs of the Late Pick 5, letting massive prices and unstoppable European invaders completely wreck our tickets.
Here is the gruesome autopsy of how we blew it, followed by a look at how we plan to fix it for the upcoming weekend.
The Saratoga Late Pick 5 Post-Mortem
Race 7 (Belmont Oaks Stakes): We expected a solid start, but our top pick, #8 Abashari, absolutely didn’t fire. Instead, the Euro invaders kept their incredible stateside record rolling. #3 Kensington Lane (IRE) blew up the tote board at a massive $48.66 to win. The best we could muster was a distant third-place finish from #6 Fitz Right. Sequence ruined on leg one.
Race 8: We built our entire ticket strategy around a single here, anchoring on #7 Antiquarian. In a rare and painful twist, he failed completely as the #1 Prime Power. The race went to #6 Phileas Fogg, rewarding his backers with a hefty $19.82 mutuel and keeping the Pick 5 on pace for an astronomical payout.
Race 9 (Belmont Derby): Our historical stats told us that European entries were a dismal 2-for-12 in this race. Naturally, revenge is a dish best served cold. #9 Title Role, another Euro invader, completely turned the tables on the data and won at $16.88. We had the right neighborhood but the wrong house, with our top choices #8 West End Kid and #3 Remember Mamba settling for second and third.
Race 10: We labeled this a “spread race,” which was the right instinct because the board completely exploded. Unfortunately, we didn’t spread deep enough to catch #9 Warp Nine, who sailed home at a massive $37.46. Our selection, #2 Tarantino, left us stranded, while our secondary look, #3 Full Screen, could only chase them home for second.
Race 11: We finally woke up after the damage was done. We nailed the exacta to close out the card, as our top pick #1 Morning Prayer protected the rail perfectly to pay $6.38, with #3 Lyn’s Legacy filling out the second spot for $6.70.
In the end, the Pick 5 paid a mind-boggling $38,329. Kudos to anyone who survived the absolute chaos, because we certainly didn’t. Our picks simply have to be sharper, deeper, and more reactive to live track bias moving forward.
The Weekend Preview: Redemption Slates
We aren’t staying down for long. Today at 3:00 PM, join me and my partner John Kostin as we deep-dive into two massive stakes races where we plan to get our bankrolls completely healthy.
1. The Victory Ride Stakes (G3) – Saratoga
We are looking to exact immediate revenge on the Saratoga main track. This $225,000 sprint features a lightning-fast field of three-year-old fillies going 6.5 furlongs. We’ll break down the high-profile return of Todd Pletcher’s Grade 1 winner #5 Tommy Jo coming off a lengthy layoff, and see if she can hold off Steve Asmussen’s highly sharp, tactical filly #10 Goodall.
2. The Iowa Derby – Prairie Meadows
On Saturday night, the action shifts beneath the lights in Altoona, Iowa, for a wide-open $250,000 main track showcase. We will be dissecting a deep field of nine three-year-olds, headlined by the morning-line favorite #5 Desert Gate for Bob Baffert, and the class-dropping rail-sitter #1 The Hell We Did.
Make sure to tune in this Saturday when we completely break down the new Late Pick 5 sequence at Saratoga with an entirely revamped strategy. You can catch our broadcast on the Sports Talk Media Network, multiple streaming apps, and all main social channels.
As we always say: bet smart, cheer hard, a fast horse can lead to some real fun, and in the end… Let ‘em Run.
