Churchill Downs Late Pick 5 Preview & NHC Contest Update
This week we are breaking down the late P5 at Churchill Downs, which features a couple of nice stakes races. Our partner will be live from Monmouth Park on Saturday, trying to secure a seat at the 2026 NHC. He will be participating in the “Pick Your Prize Contest” and looking to punch his ticket.
Be sure to catch our Podcast at 12:30 Saturday, on Sports Talk Media Network and multiple streaming apps and social channels.
Legs 1 & 2: Finding Early Value on Turf and Dirt
Race 7 | 3:53 PM EST | OC100K/N3X | 1 Mile Turf We are placing our faith in the 1st leg of this sequence on #6 For Love and Honor (6-1). Trainer Joe Sharp keeps jockey Brian Hernandez in the saddle, who just missed last out when that race got rained off the turf. The favorite in this race, #2 Smiling Ellie (3-1), is coming in 3rd off the layoff, hoping a speed duel breaks out between the #1 Austere and #3 She’s Lookin Lucky.
Race 8 | 4:25 PM EST | CLM62500 | 7 ½ Furlongs Dirt The rail runner #1 Systemic Change should get a ground-saving trip in here at this very tricky and unusual distance of 7 ½ furlongs. This runner has won 5x at the distance, and also has the Brisnet.com #1 Prime Power… by a large margin. He will need to stay close to the front as there is not much speed signed on. That may give an edge to the morning line favorite Zambezi (8-5), with jockey Florent Geroux taking over.
Stakes Action: Lone Speed and a Turf Master
Race 9 | 4:56 PM EST | The Monomy Girl Overnight Stakes ($175K) | 1 1/16 Mile Dirt This is our speed play of the day. The #1 Knickleandime (12-1) is the lone speed in the race, and holds the edge with an E8 rating from Brisnet.com. She will need to step up her BSF number, but this runner broke her maiden at this distance at Churchill Downs at the end of last year. The #3 La Rascasse (4-1) is trained by William Walden, who is firing on all cylinders at Churchill. She may blossom into a very talented filly, who broke her maiden first time out in last effort. That was a big field, and she returned with some strong workouts, indicating she may be ready to fire again. Of course, crowd favorite #5 Percy’s Bar (7-5) looms large as well.
Race 10 | 5:28 PM EST | The Chorleywood ($225K) | 1⅜ Mile Turf This race is very simple… #1 Burnham Square (2-5), who is becoming a turf marathon master. Not much more to say here.
The Get-Even Leg: Unlocking the Maiden Finale
Race 11 | 5:59 PM EST | MSW$120K | 6 Furlongs Dirt This field of maidens has six 1st-time starters in the body of the field, and we need to go deep here and find a price to end this P5 with a score. Of the 1st timers, we like the #11 Yo Fancy (8-1) best, with hot jockey Christian Torres in the saddle. This filly out of sire Yaupon for trainer Ian Wilkes has a steady series of works and will be ready to fire. The #12 Epic Proud Mary (3-1) showed speed in the slop last out and will need to get the jump on the field from this outside post. The workouts, jockey Florent Geroux, and trainer Brian Lynch add up to a winning formula.
The Late Pick 5 Ticket: 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,9 / 1,3,5 / 1 / 3,4,5,9,11,12 = $113
So tune in Saturday at 12:30, after scratches and changes, which may affect our picks. We can be viewed on Sports Talk Media Network and multiple streaming apps and social channels. As always, bet smart, cheer hard (for the USA in The World Cup Friday night, and partner John Kostin in the Monmouth Contest), fast horses can lead to serious fun, and in the end, Let ‘em Run.
