Virginia voters just approved an aggressive Democratic map. How will Florida respond?

Virginia voters have approved a new congressional map favoring Democrats. But will that set off a more aggressive push in Republican-controlled Florida?

More than 51% of Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment to adopt a new map after national Democrats heavily invested in the contest. The new map could net Democrats four more seats and erase a four-set margin now giving Republicans control of the House.

But the results were also being closely watched in Florida. GOP consultants told Florida Politics the election results could have a huge impact on a Special Session now set to start on April 28. Gov. Ron DeSantis originally scheduled the Session to start this past Monday, before the Virginia vote. It was later moved, and leaders for both chambers of the Florida Legislature say they expect DeSantis to provide a map for consideration.

Notably, DeSantis has long argued that his chief motivation wasn’t partisan gain, but remediating a map his Office drew and pushed through the legislative process in 2022. He has said lawmakers should draw a map assuming there will be a conservative ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court tossing out requirements to preserve majority-minority districts. That would upend a requirement in place since the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

However, the Supreme Court did not release that long-awaited ruling in Louisiana v. Callais last week. Justices are expected to issue one ruling on Wednesday, but have not announced the case involved. It will likely be the last opinion issued before the Florida Legislature convenes for a Special Session on Tuesday.

That could mean the Virginia maps will have an even greater impact on Florida’s next steps. GOP consultants in Florida say strategists in the White House have continued to push for aggressive maps, despite one major analysis showing that could put more GOP seats in Florida at risk.

A study by the conservative Civic Data and Research Institute says changing lines will harm GOP incumbents by forcing them to reach out to constituents they have not represented before. In what appears to be a good climate for Democrats, as reflected in the Virginia results and two Florida Special Sessions last month that swung in Democrats’ favor, that could mean putting more seats into play.

Still, GOP activists have continued to call for an aggressive gerrymander, perhaps one that could produce as many as five more Republican seats. Florida currently has just eight Democrats in its 28-member U.S. House delegation.

Nationally, Democrats sounded confident at the Virginia results and cast the election as a pushback on President Donald Trump applying pressure to Republican states to aggressively maximize GOP-controlled seats.

“Virginia voters have spoken, and tonight they pushed back against a President who claims he is ‘entitled’ to more Republican seats in Congress,” posted Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger. “As we watched other states go along with those demands without voter input, Virginians refused to let that stand. We responded the right way: at the ballot box.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also promised to target as many as eight Republican-held seats in Florida if the Sunshine State tries to install new cartography.

But if Republicans could net five GOP seats, that would effectively erase any expected Democratic gains in the Virginia map. Virginia now has six Democrats and five Republicans in its congressional delegation, and the new map gives the Democrats an edge, based on results of last year’s gubernatorial election, in 10 of the state’s 11 House seats.

That’s part of why Republicans campaigned so aggressively against the Virginia maps.

“We hope today is the day that we can deliver results for Virginians and the nation,” Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters told Virginia radio host John Fredericks on Tuesday.

That didn’t turn out as GOP leaders hoped. But notably, Gruters serves in the Florida Senate.

However, Gruters already said he will skip the Special Session next week, partly because of a legal issue in Florida’s constitution barring the drawing of congressional maps with partisan intent.

On that front, Democrats in Florida are already making noise about whether Florida can do anything about the Virginia vote.

“And let’s remember. Florida’s constitution bans partisan intent in maps. So any lawmaker talking about ‘responding to Virginia’ is a declaration of partisan intent,” posted Democratic consultant Matt Isbell after the Virginia vote. “Note them, send them to me, we need to keep their record known.”

Groups, including Equal Ground, which unsuccessfully sued Florida over its current congressional map, held a press call on Monday promising to bring action if Florida approves a new map. And Jeffries issued a statement warning against Florida trying a partisan counterpunch.

“If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, just as they did with Trump’s ‘dummymander’ in Texas. We will aggressively target for defeat Mario Díaz-Balart, Maria Elvira Salazar, Carlos Giménez, Kat Cammack, Anna Paulina Luna, Laurel Lee, Cory Mills and Brian Mast. We are prepared to take them all on, and we are prepared to win,” Jeffries said. “Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time.”

Of course, no sources have revealed to Southeast Politics that they have seen even a draft map, including members of the Florida Legislature and figures in the consulting class. With the Special Session less than a week out, many wonder if and when DeSantis’ Office could approve cartography. How long it takes may signal just how much the maps took the decision in Virginia into account.