Democrats cheer Brian Nathan upset, frame SD 14 flip in Hillsborough as GOP warning sign

Florida Democrats are hailing Democrat Brian Nathan’s surprise victory in Senate District 14 in Hillsborough County as both a policy mandate and a warning sign for Republicans heading into November.

Nathan’s narrow win over Republican Josie Tomkow — by just over 400 votes — stunned political observers in a district where GOP voters significantly outnumber Democrats. Tomkow also entered the race with strong institutional backing and a sizable fundraising advantage. Even fellow GOP candidates withdrew from the race following Tomkow’s campaign announcement.

In statements released shortly after the race was called in favor of Nathan, Democratic leaders said the result is a rejection of Republican priorities and a signal that affordability issues are driving voter behavior.

Senate Democratic Leader Lori Berman of Boynton Beach said she expects Nathan to quickly integrate into the caucus’s work during upcoming Special Sessions, where lawmakers are expected to tackle unfinished budget negotiations.

“It’s my honor to welcome Brian Nathan to the Florida Senate Democratic Caucus,” Berman said.

“The voters of Senate District 14 have spoken, and they’re clearly ready to see their leadership focus less on culture wars and more on affordability. I know that Senator Nathan will be ready to jump right in and work with the caucus on the upcoming special sessions, and I’m looking forward to serving with him during my final months in the Florida Senate.”

Senate Democratic Leader-designate Tracie Davis of Jacksonville said the result is evidence of broader political shifts in Florida. Former Sen. Jay Collins, who vacated the position to assume the role of Lieutenant Governor, won the seat by nearly 10 percentage points just four years ago.

“His win in a heavily red district is another example of how much Republicans have lost the plot on what Floridians need,” Davis said of Nathan’s victory. “Our focus as a caucus will continue to be making Florida more affordable, and I can’t wait to work with Senator Nathan on that goal. He’s a welcome addition to the Senate Democrats.”

Tomkow has already pledged a rematch against Nathan during the November election, stating, “welcome to my General Election campaign announcement” following Tuesday’s loss. That sets up a high-stakes test of whether Tuesday’s result was a one-off upset or an early indicator of shifting political dynamics.

Nathan’s victory comes as Democrat Emily Gregory also flipped House District 87 in Palm Beach County in an upset win, giving Democrats another high-profile pickup Tuesday night. 

“I’d also like to congratulate Emily Gregory on her win in House District 87,” Berman said. “She’s going to be an incredible addition to the Palm Beach County Delegation, and I can’t wait to see what she does for both the people of her district and the people of Palm Beach County.”

House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell of Temple Terrace said Gregory’s win underscores voter frustration with rising costs and Republican priorities.

“Emily ran a campaign focused on pragmatic solutions to lower costs, raise wages, and build a more affordable state for all working families and seniors that resonated with the people of Palm Beach County,” Driskell said. “We look forward to her joining us in Tallahassee as we continue to fight for our affordability agenda to provide Floridians with the relief their hard work has earned.”

House Democratic Leader-designate Christine Hunschofsky of Parkland said Gregory’s victory signals that voters are looking for leaders focused on “delivering real results that help bring down everyday costs.”

“Emily proved that Floridians are ready for change and ready for leaders who will focus on delivering real results that help bring down everyday costs for working families,” Hunschofsky said.