Byron Donalds leads Jerry Demings, David Jolly in hypothetical Governor’s race matchups

New polling shows that if U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds secures the Republican nomination in the Governor’s race, he’s ahead of either of the plausible Democratic nominees.

The survey from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Naples Republican leads former U.S. Rep. David Jolly 42% to 36%.

Donalds also leads Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings by nearly an identical margin, 43% to 36%.

In both scenarios, roughly a sixth of respondents don’t know who they will vote for.

Though an online contingent supporting various minor GOP Primary candidates say they won’t back Donalds should he win the August Primary, the poll suggests most Republicans would fall in line in either General Election scenario. Donalds has 79% support against either Demings or Jolly, and each potential Democratic nominee is in the single digits with GOP registrants.

Donalds, who has trumpeted his endorsement from President Donald Trump, is over 80% against either potential opponent with people who backed Trump in 2024. However, he has effectively no support among those who backed Kamala Harris, taking just 1% against Jolly and 2% against Demings.

Donalds has little crossover appeal. He draws just 5% support among Democrats, regardless of whether Demings or Jolly emerges from the Primary.

No-party voters split between the two Democratic candidates in a trial heat. Demings leads unaligned voters by 36% to 28%, while Jolly’s lead is 33% to 26%.

In either scenario, Donalds, who would be the first Black Republican gubernatorial nominee in Florida history, has roughly half of White voters backing him. But he is under 10% with Black voters, no matter who wins the Democratic nomination.

The poll was conducted between Feb. 21 and March 2 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.