UNF poll shows Ashley Moody lead in single digits against either Angie Nixon or Alex Vindman

U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody holds a clear lead over two likely Democratic foes, according to polling from the University of North Florida. But the Republican’s advantage remains in single digits and her support still falls under 50%.

The survey from UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows that in a matchup against Alex Vindman, a Democrat who launched his campaign in January, Moody wins 45% of the vote. Just 38% back Vindman. Another 15% of voters remain undecided when asked about a head-to-head matchup between those two.

Vindman is best known as a whistleblower whose testimony led to President Donald Trump’s first impeachment.

Moody performs better against state Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville Democrat who also launched a run for the U.S. Senate seat in January. Against Nixon, Moody wins 46% of the vote to the Democrat’s 38%, with 14% still on the fence. Before her election to the Legislature, Nixon served as Executive Director of the progressive Florida for All.

“Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years, perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the President usually struggles more in midterm elections,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, a political science professor and PORL’s director.

Moody, who was appointed to fill now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Senate seat, must stand for election in November. The winner will serve the last two years of Rubio’s six-year Senate term.

The same poll shows Trump underwater with Florida voters, with 48% viewing him unfavorable and just 45% giving him positive marks. That’s after Trump won more than 56% of the vote in Florida during the 2024 Presidential Election. About 57% of independent voters view Trump unfavorably now.

Pollsters surveyed 786 likely Midterm voters, collecting responses between Feb. 21 and March 2, then weighted responses based on likely turnout. Results were reported with a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error, putting both Democrats within reach of an upset but showing Moody with a distinct advantage.

Peering into the poll’s crosstabs, responses show Moody winning 82% of Republican voters against Vindman and 83% against Nixon.

Notably, Nixon performs better amongst Democrats in a head-to-head matchup against Moody than Vindman does. The state lawmaker gets support from 79% of Democrats against Moody, while 78% of Democrats support Vindman in such a matchup against the incumbent.

But both Nixon and Vindman outperform Moody with independent voters. In a competition with Nixon, 43% of no-party and minor party voters support Nixon compared to 32% who favor Moody. With Vindman as the Democratic nominee, 42% favor him while Moody gets only 32% support.

Moody also loses the woman vote against either Democrat. Against fellow female candidate Nixon, 44% of female voters go Democrat while 40% prefer Moody. The Republican sees support drop among women when facing the male Vindman, with 44% supporting the Democrat in such a scenario and only 39% wanting Moody to keep the seat. But Moody wins male voters against either Democrat, 52% to 31%.

And while some prognosticators may expect Vindman’s higher national profile to give him a big advantage over Nixon, Freeder said that’s not necessarily the case.

“On one hand, Vindman enjoys a name recognition advantage over Nixon as expected,” Freeder said. “On the other hand, given his significant involvement in Trump’s first impeachment, the familiarity advantage is much smaller than one would expect, and it doesn’t translate to better general election performance.”