Last Call for 1.29.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Happy birthday to Natalie Kelly, CEO of the Florida Association of Managing Entities!

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Dr. Sean Snaith, Director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting, told attendees at the Florida Chamber’s Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit that the national economic outlook for 2026 is defined less by imminent recession risk than by persistent uncertainty driven by policy instability.

Opening his remarks with a nod to Yogi Berra, Snaith said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” noting that rapidly changing rules — particularly around international trade — have made forecasting unusually difficult.

Pending U.S. Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, the possibility of another federal government shutdown, and an upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership are all contributing to what he described as a moderate but lingering cloud over the national economy.

Snaith also flagged growing pressure on consumers, particularly households that relied on credit cards to offset rising living costs. National credit card debt now exceeds $1 trillion, he said, with average interest rates topping 20% — a combination that could constrain future consumer spending.

A significant portion of Snaith’s presentation focused on the national debt, now estimated at roughly $38.6 trillion, or about 124% of GDP. Recent downgrades by major credit rating agencies reflect Washington’s inability to control the budget process, he said, warning that debt crises often unfold quietly before accelerating.

Quoting Ernest Hemingway, Snaith noted that countries tend to go bankrupt “two ways: gradually, then suddenly.”

Despite those concerns, Snaith projected a slowdown rather than a downturn. The labor market remains stable, unemployment is historically low, and while hiring has cooled, layoffs have not surged.

Looking ahead, Snaith said Florida remains well-positioned to outperform the national economy, citing strong population growth, a resilient labor market, and continued demand in sectors such as health care, construction, and leisure, even as overall growth moderates.

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Brad O’Connor, Chief Economist for Florida Realtors, said Florida’s prolonged housing slowdown is being driven less by collapsing demand than by a sharp erosion in affordability — and relief will hinge largely on interest rates.

Speaking at the Florida Chamber’s Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit, O’Connor said Florida home sales have declined for four consecutive years following a pandemic-era surge fueled by ultra-low mortgage rates and heavy in-migration.

While population inflows remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, he said demand has normalized, particularly among buyers from lower-wealth regions.

“It’s not that people don’t desire to move to Florida anymore,” O’Connor said. “It’s because Florida has become much less affordable for those who aren’t coming from higher-wealth coastal markets.”

Using Florida Realtors data compiled from nearly 30 MLS systems statewide, O’Connor showed that affordability deteriorated rapidly beginning in 2022, when rising mortgage rates collided with sharply higher home prices. While median single-family home prices rose about 40% during the pandemic boom, monthly mortgage payments surged far faster once rates climbed. At their peak, typical principal-and-interest payments were nearly 90% higher than just two years earlier, he said, and remain more than double what buyers faced five years ago.

That affordability shock, O’Connor said, explains both declining sales and the stubbornness of prices. Many homeowners are locked into low fixed-rate mortgages and are unwilling to sell at lower prices, which limits inventory. As of late 2025, statewide inventory remains well below levels associated with major price corrections.

O’Connor said modest declines in mortgage rates late last year helped unlock pent-up demand, producing the first sustained year-over-year increase in closed sales in several years. Looking ahead, he said a major statewide price correction is unlikely absent a surge in listings. If mortgage rates fall below 6%, however, he said Florida could see renewed sales growth — and possibly rising prices — driven by significant latent demand.

Evening Reads

—”How much trouble is Kristi Noem in?” via Caitlin Dewey of Vox

—”Tim Walz Fears a Fort Sumter Moment in Minneapolis” via Isaac Stanley-Becker of The Atlantic

—”Democratic Governors promise accountability after Minneapolis” via David W. Chen of The New York Times

—”Greg Bovino was Donald Trump’s rising star. Then he arrived in Minneapolis.” via Joshua Chaffin and Michelle Hackman of The Wall Street Journal

—”ICE pretends it’s a military force. Its tactics would get real soldiers killed.” via John Publius of WIRED

—”Jennifer Jenkins drops out of Senate race, endorses Alex Vindman” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—”‘Capitalism is supposed to be faster than communism’: Space roadblocks frustrate Congressman” via Richard Tribou of The Orlando Sentinel

—”House Ethics report details 27 counts against Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—”Florida expands criminal probe into recreational marijuana petitions” via Romy Ellenbogen of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Taxes, corruption, and AI: Why I’m avoiding the sportsbooks right now” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics

Quote of the Day

“Fear does not make communities safer. It makes people panic instead of pause.”

— Sen. LaVon Bracy Davis, on a symbolic amendment to the “Officer Jason Raynor Act.”

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Rep. Yvette Benarroch gets a Zoom for rolling the e-bike regulation bill through another Committee with a unanimous vote.

Jennifer Jenkins gave up the driver’s seat and took a Sidecar, clearing the field for U.S. Senate candidate Alex Vindman.

Serve Rep. Hillary Cassel a Terror-Tini for defending her bill creating a state-level domestic terrorism organization list.